I found a worse predictive model than RPI...

[AZcuse77]

Pitt is 1-5 (12-7) and getting tripled up 15-45 at home right now. Clemson is 1-6 (11-8) yet Lunardi had them both "in" during his first Bracketology with *11* ACC teams in and now a few days later has Clemson as right on the bubble, first out after losing their 6th conference game.

If he is going to present his "system" as actual bracket selections how does he say only 4 of 15 ACC teams are going to be left out when 7-8 will have losing league records? Yes the ACC is good enough that 1-2 teams could go 8-10 with a good OOC and get in, but 11 of 15? I really can't even see how 10 is possible when there is no BC type doormat this year going winless.

And he picks the two teams with a combined 2-11 conference record. (Was 2-10 when both were "in") Lunardi is such a joke.

 

[jncuse]

Pitt is 1-5 (12-7) and getting tripled up 15-45 at home right now. Clemson is 1-6 (11-8) yet Lunardi had them both "in" during his first Bracketology with *11* ACC teams in and now a few days later has Clemson as right on the bubble, first out after losing their 6th conference game.

If he is going to present his "system" as actual bracket selections how does he say only 4 of 15 ACC teams are going to be left out when 7-8 will have losing league records? Yes the ACC is good enough that 1-2 teams could go 8-10 with a good OOC and get in, but 11 of 15? I really can't even see how 10 is possible when there is no BC type doormat this year going winless.

And he picks the two teams with a combined 2-11 conference record. (Was 2-10 when both were "in") Lunardi is such a joke.

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2017

Lunardi is hardly the only one. Many people have a mix of Clemson, Wake, Miami, and Pitt in the tourney. The average bracket has an average of 2.5 of those 4 teams.

The as of now approach considers what a team has done in total including the ACC games, and its hard to get punished in the ACC because you don't play sub 100 teams. Clemson had some nice wins in OOC, so if you view your total 19 game stretch you can overcome a 1-5 record in the ACC if your losses for the most part are too tough teams.

 

[jncuse]

The top non ACC teams on the outside of the bubble right now according to the matrix

Wichita St: 16-4, 16-0 vs sub 100 teams, 0-4 vs top 100 teams

Rhode Island : 12-6, 1-6 vs top 100 teams (win vs Cincy)

Michigan : 13-7. 3-6 vs top 100 (2 nice neutral court wins over SMU and Marquette),

Georgia : 11-7, 4 top 100 wins (2 Road), no top 50 wins, 2 sub 100 losses on the road

As a comparison

Clemson - 11-8, 4 top 100 wins, 3 top 50 wins (2 away), 2 sub 100 losses on the road

Pitt - 12-8, 6 top 100 wins, 2 top 50 wins (1 road), Neutral Win against #52 RPI, 2 sub 100 losses.

It's slim pickings. But the ACC teams clearly accomplished the most OOC. which is why they are in right now despite the record. It is also why I think there are good chances one ACC team will get in with a 7-11 conference record this year. (As an aside that will be a team that accomplished something OOC unlike us)

 

[two3zone]

Don't think I've ever seen so many second chance points in one game.

 

[two3zone]

Can we trade DC, 72 and Thompson for Collins?

 

[jncuse]

Can we trade DC, 72 and Thompson for Collins?

Wrong thread, but I wish this team could do trades.

 

[two3zone]

Wrong thread, but I wish this team could do trades.

Whoops, second time I did that tonight and I didn't even have a drink.

Trying to work, watch the game, look at the stats, and post on here at the same time doesn't work well for me.

 

[AZcuse77]

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2017

Lunardi is hardly the only one. Many people have a mix of Clemson, Wake, Miami, and Pitt in the tourney. The average bracket has an average of 2.5 of those 4 teams.

The as of now approach considers what a team has done in total including the ACC games, and its hard to get punished in the ACC because you don't play sub 100 teams. Clemson had some nice wins in OOC, so if you view your total 19 game stretch you can overcome a 1-5 record in the ACC if your losses for the most part are too tough teams.

I hear ya... I just think if you are going to call it bracket prediction it should consider the fact that 11 ACC teams getting in is impossible and 10 getting in is slim chance by the time the selection happens. The 11th team seems more likely to be 6-10 but even at 7-11 no team has ever been selected being more than 2 games under .500 in conference. That would have to be one incredible OOC performance given that it's never happened.

 

[PoppyHart]

I hear ya... I just think if you are going to call it bracket prediction it should consider the fact that 11 ACC teams getting in is impossible and 10 getting in is slim chance by the time the selection happens. The 11th team seems more likely to be 6-10 but even at 7-11 no team has ever been selected being more than 2 games under .500 in conference. That would have to be one incredible OOC performance given that it's never happened.

FSU made it at 6-10 in 1998. But, yeah, I agree that the numbers are not adding up to 11 (or ten) this year. I think 8, with a possible 9th in a play-in game.

 

[AZcuse77]

FSU made it at 6-10 in 1998. But, yeah, I agree that the numbers are not adding up to 11 (or ten) this year. I think 8, with a possible 9th in a play-in game.

Sorry I missed that one but now that you mention it I kind of remember that happening. Looks like Wake Forest got left out at 7-9 (16-14) in favor of FSU 6-10 (18-14)... Duke UNC and MD dominated and were the only teams with winning conference records so I guess they felt a conference like that couldn't get less than 5 bids. (I feel like there was a year they got 4 but not sure.) I think back then it was more weighted that conference X deserves Y bids ... versus today where they swear they look at each team individually (though I don't think that's 100% true).

I agree the ACC will probably get 9.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

The bubble is going to be really, really, crappy this year. We might even sneak into that play in game.

 

[jncuse]

FSU made it at 6-10 in 1998. But, yeah, I agree that the numbers are not adding up to 11 (or ten) this year. I think 8, with a possible 9th in a play-in game.

It really depends on who are the teams that are at 7, 8, 9 and 10 victories, and how the team did OCC. But when teams that crapped the bed until Jan 1 like Georgia Tech and Syracuse (or better if Syracuse) start getting 7-10 wins instead of 3,4 or 5, it does impact bids.

I think 8 or 9 makes sense as well. It is a really craptastic bubble though, so I think certain ACC teams could make it at 7-11, if they had a good OOC.

 

[jordoo]

Its only our bad losses that have us out right now. Uconn, St Johns, Gtown, @BC. We would be 16-5 clearly in the field but still without any great wins. We are currently better than some bubble teams that are considered in but we completely shat the bed OOC so we are out as of now.

 

[Eric15]

Pitt is 1-5 (12-7)

I dunno, Pitt being in right now as an 11 or 12 seed doesn't seem that unrealistic to me. They're 12-7 against the country's 10th toughest schedule. Conference record is simply a small subset of the overall schedule.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Pitt has some good wins(Marquette, Maryland, and UVA), but does anyone honestly think they are going anywhere? They lost to Louisville by 55 and Miami by 26. Both games were at home.