I wonder if Wisconsin drops in Pomeroy's rankings?

[Ptzburghcuse]

couchburn

 

[Opus]

Ha. I just thought they would go up in his rankings.

 

[Bornorange]

No way, Big, slow, and methodical time wasting teams always do well with Pomeroy.
That said if they fall below .500 he will consider dropping them from
the top 10.

 

[Knicks411]

Actually dropped pretty far, from 5 to 11.

 

[moqui]

Everyone should read Pomeroy's disclaimer:

The first thing you should know about this system is that it is designed to be purely predictive. If you’re looking for a system that rates teams on how “good” their season has been, you’ve come to the wrong place. There are enough systems out there that rank teams based on what is “good” by just about any definition you can think of. So I’d encourage you to google college basketball ratings or even try the opinion polls for something that is more your style.

The purpose of this system is to show how strong a team would be if it played tonight, independent of injuries or emotional factors. Since nobody can see every team play all (or even most) of their games, this system is designed to give you a snapshot of a team’s current level of play.

Pomeroy's algorithm is basically (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency) - (Adjusted Defensive Efficiency). That is not it exactly, but I had his full data set last year and found that results of this simple formula correlated to his rank order at r = .998

He's just telling you who the most and least efficient teams in the land are. Wisconsin is typically a very efficient team at both ends, so they tend to rate very highly. It's just a piece of information that we can all use to decide who is better or worse at a particular moment in time.

 

[br801]

Everyone should read Pomeroy's disclaimer:




Pomeroy's algorithm is basically (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency) - (Adjusted Defensive Efficiency). That is not it exactly, but I had his full data set last year and found that results of this simple formula correlated to his rank order at r = .998

He's just telling you who the most and least efficient teams in the land are. Wisconsin is typically a very efficient team at both ends, so they tend to rate very highly. It's just a piece of information that we can all use to decide who is better or worse at a particular moment in time.

Just out of curiosity, do you know if Pomeroy's ratings are more closely correlated to betting lines (point spreads) than other polls or rating systems?

 

[moqui]

Just out of curiosity, do you know if Pomeroy's ratings are more closely correlated to betting lines (point spreads) than other polls or rating systems?

I have no idea; I don't pay any attention to point spreads or betting lines

 

[Knicks411]

I know they are extremely correlated with the lines; or at least they were when I was gambling more frequently. I'm assuming they still are. I don't know if other people put out predicted scores for every game so I can't compare, but I would say it was rare for me to find a game more thna a point or so off.

Pomeroy's algorithm is basically (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency) - (Adjusted Defensive Efficiency). That is not it exactly, but I had his full data set last year and found that results of this simple formula correlated to his rank order at r = .998

Yeah, I think it's just some sort of pythagorean formula, but like you show, the difference gets you pretty much all the way there

 

[Marsh01]

Good point Moqui. I dont even pay much attention to Pomeroys ratings.

 

[Cusefannotindc]

Just out of curiosity, do you know if Pomeroy's ratings are more closely correlated to betting lines (point spreads) than other polls or rating systems?

Pomeroy's data tracks very closely to betting lines, whether or not anyone else's data tracks closer I can't say. Sagarin offers a way to estimate results but does not give a list of predictions for every game. I know there is a new rating system for Basketball Prospectus, but I don't believe they offer individual game predictions.

In general terms for betting, you are looking for gaps between the computers and vegas. However, Vegas's initial lines should have the edge because they have access to the computer data plus qualitative information the computers don't factor in.

 

[br801]

I know they are extremely correlated with the lines; or at least they were when I was gambling more frequently. I'm assuming they still are. I don't know if other people put out predicted scores for every game so I can't compare, but I would say it was rare for me to find a game more thna a point or so off.

Pomeroy's data tracks very closely to betting lines, whether or not anyone else's data tracks closer I can't say. Sagarin offers a way to estimate results but does not give a list of predictions for every game. I know there is a new rating system for Basketball Prospectus, but I don't believe they offer individual game predictions.

In general terms for betting, you are looking for gaps between the computers and vegas. However, Vegas's initial lines should have the edge because they have access to the computer data plus qualitative information the computers don't factor in.

Thanks for the info.