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[QUOTE="leftytg, post: 1550941, member: 2651"]
I don't know why you quoted my post.  I specifically said I'm not taking a position on the call.  I'm not arguing with anyone, for or against.  I was simply pointing out the fallacy of assigning a percentage on one side of the call, not assigning the percentage on the other side, and claiming the coach was playing the percentages.  He very well may have been playing the percentages, but that post doesn't show it.

To make such an argument properly, one would have to compare the win expectancy of Syracuse picking up the first down (posited at 8% chance) and then ultimately scoring a TD or FG to the win expectancy of Syracuse punting, getting the ball back, and scoring twice in the time left.

Again, I'm not taking a position.  I agree the win expectancy on both ends is very small, and I'm not assigning any blame to anybody on the call.  I'm simply trying to point out a flawed mechanism in making a point, in the hopes that it may be helpful for the future.
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