"If you're getting beat by 20"...

[PoppyHart]

I started this file years ago as I thought I noticed an unusual pattern of bad losses and wanted to verify. I just updated it with results from the last few years.


In JB's first 20 years (1977-1996), he never lost 4 (or more) games in a season by 15+ points.

In JB's second 20 years (1997-2016), he lost 4+ games in a season by 15+ points 3 times (1997, 1999, 2006).

In JB's last 7 years (2017-Present), he has lost 4+ games in a season by 15+ points 5 times (2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022)

 

[donniesyracuse]

I started this file years ago as I thought I noticed an unusual pattern of bad losses and wanted to verify. I just updated it with results from the last few years.


In JB's first 20 years (1977-1996), he never lost 4 (or more) games in a season by 15+ points.

In JB's second 20 years (1997-2016), he lost 4+ games in a season by 15+ points 3 times (1997, 1999, 2006).

In JB's last 7 years (2017-Present), he has lost 4+ games in a season by 15+ points 5 times (2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022)

I understand and appreciate the point of this data. I do think the prominence and volatility of the three point shot has probably changed the standard deviation of margins of victory in modern college basketball. I am too lazy to look it up though.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

I started this file years ago as I thought I noticed an unusual pattern of bad losses and wanted to verify. I just updated it with results from the last few years.


In JB's first 20 years (1977-1996), he never lost 4 (or more) games in a season by 15+ points.

In JB's second 20 years (1997-2016), he lost 4+ games in a season by 15+ points 3 times (1997, 1999, 2006).

In JB's last 7 years (2017-Present), he has lost 4+ games in a season by 15+ points 5 times (2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022)

The CBB landscape has changed tremendously over the years, including our program, but even when we won the NC with only 5 losses, three of them happen to be by double digits.

You can blame it on our coach if you would like, but you see less great programs and more good programs. So losing on any given night can happen. Just peruse the top 25 results every weekend. Ranked teams are losing more often.

Here is a poll from 2/25/03. Only two teams had 7 or more losses. Now go to the current week's poll and 7 teams already have at least 7 losses.

NCAA Men’s College Basketball Coaches Poll | USA Today Sports

Weekly results from the USA TODAY Sports NCAA Men’s College Basketball coaches poll, conducted weekly using a panel of head coaches at Division I schools.

www.usatoday.com

 

[OrangeDW]

If you lose more games, there’s a good chance you’re going to lose some of them by a lot. Our winning % has gone way down.

We lose a lot, and often by a good amount. It’s ok though - this team is young and improving I am told!

 

[Dcuse]

If you lose more games, there’s a good chance you’re going to lose some of them by a lot. Our winning % has gone way down.

We lose a lot, and often by a good amount. It’s ok though - this team is young and improving I am told!

If you don’t think they’re young and improving, you’re free to make your own assessment.

 

[OrangeDW]

If you don’t think they’re young and improving, you’re free to make your own assessment.

Two of the three players that take all the shots are seniors. Not THAT young.

Improving? Well, I do think we’d beat Bryant and St. John’s today and keep it under 20 against Illinois. So….somewhat.

Past history tells me half of the players that are young will leave, and we’ll be back to being “young” next year too. So on, and so forth.

When is the year that we can actually hope to win? Someone let me know, thanks.

Next year the story will be, “well, we lost our leading scorer and leading rebounder, these guys have to learn how to be the go to players! Maybe next year!” So on, and so on.

 

[Dcuse]

Two of the three players that take all the shots are seniors. Not THAT young.

Improving? Well, I do think we’d beat Bryant and St. John’s today and keep it under 20 against Illinois. So….somewhat.

Past history tells me half of the players that are young will leave, and we’ll be back to being “young” next year too. So on, and so forth.

When is the year that we can actually hope to win? Someone let me know, thanks.

Next year the story will be, “well, we lost our leading scorer and leading rebounder, these guys have to learn how to be the go to players! Maybe next year!” So on, and so on.

I agree with your young players leaving statement. To me, it’s a very sad and down time in college sports. It makes me appreciate more that I was able to witness the days of 4 year players that grew and developed together. Its obvious to me that we aren’t the only program suffering the consequences of this. Kentucky,Kansa,Duke,etc. do not look like their normal selves either.

 

[bballbeadle]

There was a feeling of family and loyalty. I LOVED it.

 

[HoustonCuse]

When looking at these historical trends also don’t forget we play more conference games now which undoubtedly raises the number of times per season that you play teams who are likely to have the ability to beat you by a bigger margin. I do realize it has been Colgate doing it in each of the past two years but I’m speaking of a long term average. More games against P5 teams than in the earlier eras. Also our team is worse and lower end teams are better than they were in the 90s and before.

 

[dollarbill44]

Also our team is worse.

This is overwhelmingly the number one reason.

 

[swish7]

Interesting stuff. Accumulated blowout losses are definitely a sign of an overall lack of competitiveness.

It was the Great Alaska Shootout for me, that 40ish point loss to Kansas that felt like 60, that had me wondering what was happening on the hill these days? That was a long time ago though.

The 2nd golden age, from 2008-2014 was perhaps the last of JBs era. But, that could change if Mintz stays and a true big, a skilled and physically dominant center comes.

To me, a couple things qualify a season as great: Advancing to the sweet 16, and losing maybe 8 or less. On the other side, losing 9 or more, or failing to reach the NCAA sweet 16 is a bad to at best good season.

By this definition, JB has had 26 great seasons in 47 years.
* been to or past the Sweet 16 twenty times.
* lost 8 or less 6 times in seasons when they did not make it to the Sweet 16.

In the last 10, he will have had 3 great seasons (by my definition). So, yeah, times are tough.

Going back in time, 9+ loss seasons occurred 29 times. 7 of those were still great seasons bc we went to the sweet 16 or better.

1. 2023-2014 (9 seasons)
2. 2013-2012 (1 season)
3. 2009-2005 (4 seasons)
4. 2002-2000 (2 seasons)
5. 1999-1994 (5 seasons)
6. 1993-1991 (2 seasons)
7. 1988-1987 (1 season)
8. 1985-1980 (5 seasons)

On the other side, the stretches (more than 1 season) of great (by my def) seasons were:

1. 2014-2008 (6 seasons)
2. 2004-2002 (2 seasons)
3. 1991-1988 (3 seasons)
4. 1987-1985 (2 seasons)
5. 1980-1976 (4 seasons)

 

[upperdeck]

i think part of it is that the floor got much higher over all..

years ago the bottom teams in the ncaa tourney rarely won.. Now we see it all the time.. 25-30pts better has become 15-20pts better at the top and the margin and the bottom is even less.

 

[Wrinkle]

I think it's as simple as we haven't been good lately. This follows.

 

[Bayside44]

There's so much more talent, programs like ours don't have 3-4 year 4 year 4 / 5 star kids, mid-majors win buy in games all the time, and the three point shot revolutionized the game and turned it on it's head.

 

[cusefan88]

There's so much more talent, programs like ours don't have 3-4 year 4 year 4 / 5 star kids, mid-majors win buy in games all the time, and the three point shot revolutionized the game and turned it on it's head.

Not to mention the three point line expanded and made the zone work harder to cover everything

 

[Col. Bleep]

... if Mintz stays and a true big, a skilled and physically dominant center comes.

That's a mighty big "if."
Losing Jesse Edwards is going to hurt.
Who will fill that slot for 35 minutes a game?

With the status of today's game there is little cohesion for the old big time programs.
It's constant recruiting.

This seems to be to the advantage of lesser programs that keep and develop players who stick around.
It's also a source of Virginia's success where player's develop.
Similar for Villanova under Jay Wright.

 

[Scooch]

All of the explanations as to why these large-margin losses might be more prevalent in recent years make sense to me. Not that I'm assigning homework, but it'd be interesting to look at a couple other schools as a control. Maybe Duke as one. K didn't experience the late-career swoon that JB has, and they're playing mostly the same type of schedule.

 

[swish7]

That's a mighty big "if."
Losing Jesse Edwards is going to hurt.
Who will fill that slot for 35 minutes a game?

With the status of today's game there is little cohesion for the old big time programs.
It's constant recruiting.

This seems to be to the advantage of lesser programs that keep and develop players who stick around.
It's also a source of Virginia's success where player's develop.
Similar for Villanova under Jay Wright.

That's two big ifs, if not more.

1. If Mintz stays
2. If we can replace Edwards w an equivalent or better player, offensive and defensively
3. If Malig can be more than a 8/8 type player. Can he be a 14/10 kind of player on a regular basis?
4. If Justin Taylor can fill Joe's shoes
5. If Bell can score and rebound and defend on a consistent basis

Hell, even if the whole shebang comes back, Joe, Jesse, Judah, all of it, there are still many ifs.

I do think 'developing players' is where we are at and need to be with this group.

 

[Bayside44]

All of the explanations as to why these large-margin losses might be more prevalent in recent years make sense to me. Not that I'm assigning homework, but it'd be interesting to look at a couple other schools as a control. Maybe Duke as one. K didn't experience the late-career swoon that JB has, and they're playing mostly the same type of schedule.

When K made the one and done switch he didn't have the postseason success that he had in with more veteran teams (4 NCs to 1 if I am counting right).

 

[MDCuse]

If you lose more games, there’s a good chance you’re going to lose some of them by a lot. Our winning % has gone way down.

We lose a lot, and often by a good amount. It’s ok though - this team is young and improving I am told!

And the whole team is guaranteed to come back next year. And I've also been told, without a shadow of a doubt, they're all going to improve by leaps and bounds.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

And the whole team is guaranteed to come back next year. And I've also been told, without a shadow of a doubt, they're all going to improve by leaps and bounds.

Of course, we know the odds of everyone coming back are pretty slim based on how the portal works for most schools. However, you could make an argument, excluding maybe Carey who besides being injured was deemed the 3rd string this year anyways, that all the freshmen could have a bright future in Orange. Mintz at one, Taylor at two, Bell at three, Brown at four and Quadir as the 6th man. We pick up an experienced center and the team has potential. How about Quinten Post from BC? Maybe Jesse can recruit him to come to the Cuse.