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[QUOTE="Millhouse, post: 401692, member: 78"]
Here's another way to look at it.
 
Let's assume if you get the first down, you either score a td or attempt a FG
 
Expected value of kicking = 55% fg percentage * 3 points. 1.65 expected points
 
Now we look at go for it. You have a 73% chance of getting it. Now, let's assume that even if they picked it up, they'd only get a TD 12% of the time.
 
Expected value of going for it. TD 12% of the time 73% you get the first down * 12% you get the TD after that * 7 = .61 points. FG attempt 88% of the time 73% chance of first down * 88% of the time you kick * 55% of the time you make it * 3 points = 1.67 expected points
 
Even if you think that we only have a one in eight chance (stupidly low) of getting a TD after converting the fourth down, it still has a higher expected value than kicking.
 
It's completely *cking crazy to think that you have less than 1/8 chance from the other team's 20 or so but then bank on a long TD drive and a 4th down conversion after that merely to tie the game.
 
No one needs to do this actual math. It's common sense. We need TDs. The endzone is right there. Don't kick
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