In depth look at Second Half Rushing vs. WMU

[A Clockwork Orange]

Here's a link to the first half rushing stats.

First thing you'll notice on the stats below is that it's a tale of two halves. I'll post the numbers, and then my thoughts on them afterwards.

So about as much of a 180 from the first half as you can get. There are some reasons for this, and after watching the second half in depth, I think there are mitigating circumstances to look at. It's a mish-mash of issues, specifically what was going on in the game, and what I think the coaching staff was trying to accomplish. I'd almost concede you could throw the whole 4th quarter out, as it's obviously not the way this team will EVER run an offense when we're trying to score. Reminds me of when Coach Boeheim puts on the stall with three minutes left in a 10-12 point game. Analytically, both moves to run out the clock (in basketball and football) make perfect sense. Aesthetically, it can be frustrating.

Let me just point out first that this team could have EASILY hung 70 on WMU if they had wanted to. IF Dungey had played the whole game, maybe we're looking at 80. The only time WMU's defense had any success whatsoever against the offense is when Tommy Gun was in the game. Dungey came in and scored three straight touchdowns. Two in the 3rd, and one to start the 4th. We had our way with them, just keep that in mind.

Here are the "true" rushing stats from the second half (which discounts scrambles, short yardage situations, and sacks). So essentially, rushing stats that include only runs that are operating within the confines of this offense, when it is looking to score.

Player	Rushes	Yards	Y/A
Moe Neal	15	33
Dontae Strickland	3	0	0
Eric Dungey	3	38	12.6
Tommy Devito	2	17	8.5

Neal rushed for 2.2 yards in the 2nd half, Strick rushed for 0 yards and a TD. This looks HORRIBLE on the face of it. Every single run Neal had in the 4th was either a power I right or a power I left. Essentially, they lined up and ran the same thing over and over, and still ground out yards on them, enough for three or four first downs. They were chewing clock, nothing more.

I think it's REALLY difficult to determine this teams rushing ability from the 2nd half. In the 3rd quarter with Devito was unprepared to deal with the pass rush of WMU, as was the O-Line. Halftime adjustments certainly are in WMU's favor. They also had the benefit of playing a QB who was taking the first meaningful stats in his college career.

WMU was MUCH more aggressive to start the second half, in part because of the 2nd string QB. They didn't give Devito any respect. If he had hit one of those long throws, things may have changed. All out blitzes and one on one on the outside. Basically they were daring Devito to beat them. He wasn't up to the task...yet. I think he will be down the road.

As soon as Dungey came back in, everything loosened up, and SU started scoring again. I think Tommy Gun will grow into a great starter, he just needs some time and patience. He was moving too fast out there, and the game was moving too fast. It will slow down for him as time goes on. He has good mechanics, and throws a good ball. I truly think he had the jitters. Even his fakes were in fast forward. His fake on the jet sweep was really poor, and fooled no one. These are things that are fixable with time and experience. I'm still excited about this team.

The offense did what they needed to win, and packed it in in the 4th. They certainly only opened up about half the playbook in this game. The defense is going to be a work in progress all year. The young guys (specifically Trill and Cisco) need to get a lot of run. They are going to make mistakes, but this team will be better for it long term.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Go to church, ya heathen!

These have been good posts you made. Interesting stuff.

The only caveat I have is that we don't really vary the running game much, so while I'm optimistic that your point about the 4th quarter is valid, I can't ever remember a game we've had where I felt our rushing attack exhibited a whole lot of creativity in terms of what we ask the running backs to do.

 

[A Clockwork Orange]

Go to church, ya heathen!

These have been good posts you made. Interesting stuff.

The only caveat I have is that we don't really care the running game much, so while I'm optimistic that your point about the 4th quarter is valid, I can't ever remember a game we've had where I felt our rushing attack exhibited a whole lot of creativity in terms of what we ask the running backs to do.

You're absolutely right. Last year though, SU was running those fake jet sweeps and read options and gaining a yard or two. In what was a very limited look at the rushing game in the first half, they were gashing WMU.

The whole point of the offense is basically to spread 'em out, and run straight at them. They were able to do that on short yardage, and true rushing plays. Pretty much did what they wanted, even if what they wanted was to chew clock and gain two or three yards a pop.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

You're absolutely right. Last year though, SU was running those fake jet sweeps and read options and gaining a yard or two. In what was a very limited look at the rushing game in the first half, they were gashing WMU.

The whole point of the offense is basically to spread 'em out, and run straight at them. They were able to do that on short yardage, and true rushing plays. Pretty much did what they wanted, even if what they wanted was to chew clock and gain two or three yards a pop.

I kept wondering if they would give Riley the ball on the jet sweep motion they put him in.

Not saying I wanted him to get the ball there, just that it was clear they wanted to at least communicate the threat and have the defense account for it as part of the play design.

I suspect when Johnson is ready to go we see that handoff now and again.

 

[rrlbees]

Here's a link to the first half rushing stats.

First thing you'll notice on the stats below is that it's a tale of two halves. I'll post the numbers, and then my thoughts on them afterwards.

View attachment 138290

So about as much of a 180 from the first half as you can get. There are some reasons for this, and after watching the second half in depth, I think there are mitigating circumstances to look at. It's a mish-mash of issues, specifically what was going on in the game, and what I think the coaching staff was trying to accomplish. I'd almost concede you could throw the whole 4th quarter out, as it's obviously not the way this team will EVER run an offense when we're trying to score. Reminds me of when Coach Boeheim puts on the stall with three minutes left in a 10-12 point game. Analytically, both moves to run out the clock (in basketball and football) make perfect sense. Aesthetically, it can be frustrating.

Let me just point out first that this team could have EASILY hung 70 on WMU if they had wanted to. IF Dungey had played the whole game, maybe we're looking at 80. The only time WMU's defense had any success whatsoever against the offense is when Tommy Gun was in the game. Dungey came in and scored three straight touchdowns. Two in the 3rd, and one to start the 4th. We had our way with them, just keep that in mind.

Here are the "true" rushing stats from the second half (which discounts scrambles, short yardage situations, and sacks). So essentially, rushing stats that include only runs that are operating within the confines of this offense, when it is looking to score.

Player	Rushes	Yards	Y/A
Moe Neal	15	33
Dontae Strickland	3	0	0
Eric Dungey	3	38	12.6
Tommy Devito	2	17	8.5

Neal rushed for 2.2 yards in the 2nd half, Strick rushed for 0 yards and a TD. This looks HORRIBLE on the face of it. Every single run Neal had in the 4th was either a power I right or a power I left. Essentially, they lined up and ran the same thing over and over, and still ground out yards on them, enough for three or four first downs. They were chewing clock, nothing more.

I think it's REALLY difficult to determine this teams rushing ability from the 2nd half. In the 3rd quarter with Devito was unprepared to deal with the pass rush of WMU, as was the O-Line. Halftime adjustments certainly are in WMU's favor. They also had the benefit of playing a QB who was taking the first meaningful stats in his college career.

WMU was MUCH more aggressive to start the second half, in part because of the 2nd string QB. They didn't give Devito any respect. If he had hit one of those long throws, things may have changed. All out blitzes and one on one on the outside. Basically they were daring Devito to beat them. He wasn't up to the task...yet. I think he will be down the road.

As soon as Dungey came back in, everything loosened up, and SU started scoring again. I think Tommy Gun will grow into a great starter, he just needs some time and patience. He was moving too fast out there, and the game was moving too fast. It will slow down for him as time goes on. He has good mechanics, and throws a good ball. I truly think he had the jitters. Even his fakes were in fast forward. His fake on the jet sweep was really poor, and fooled no one. These are things that are fixable with time and experience. I'm still excited about this team.

The offense did what they needed to win, and packed it in in the 4th. They certainly only opened up about half the playbook in this game. The defense is going to be a work in progress all year. The young guys (specifically Trill and Cisco) need to get a lot of run. They are going to make mistakes, but this team will be better for it long term.

From another thread.

They typically rotate series or rotate every two series. That’s what they did last night. But if you look at our last 4 series, Moe was in the last two and Strick the two prior. Strick's two series we scored in 4 plays and then one play after Whitner's INT. The last two series we played slower methodical football and didn’t throw and Dungey only ran a few times. We just kept giving Moe the ball up the middle pretty much. He carried 15 times those last two series. More than half his carries for the game.

 

[A Clockwork Orange]

I kept wondering if they would give Riley the ball on the jet sweep motion they put him in.

Not saying I wanted him to get the ball there, just that it was clear they wanted to at least communicate the threat and have the defense account for it as part of the play design.

I suspect when Johnson is ready to go we see that handoff now and again.

I honestly think it’s all about giving FSU some things to think about.

 

[A Clockwork Orange]

From another thread.

They typically rotate series or rotate every two series. That’s what they did last night. But if you look at our last 4 series, Moe was in the last two and Strick the two prior. Strick's two series we scored in 4 plays and then one play after Whitner's INT. The last two series we played slower methodical football and didn’t throw and Dungey only ran a few times. We just kept giving Moe the ball up the middle pretty much. He carried 15 times those last two series. More than half his carries for the game.

I wonder if the coaching staff think Moe has a little bit more vision in tight like that. Not much room to move and you have to find a very small seam. I think Moe did well in that role for the most part.

 

[rrlbees]

I wonder if the coaching staff think Moe has a little bit more vision in tight like that. Not much room to move and you have to find a very small seam. I think Moe did well in that role for the most part.

those last 2 series were moes turn. they rotated the whole game.

 

[A Clockwork Orange]

those last 2 series were moes turn. they rotated the whole game.

Yep, see that now! Got confused by how much time was used up in the 4th. And you’re right, Dontae was in on the TD in the 4th.

 

[TheCusian]

Go to church, ya heathen!

These have been good posts you made. Interesting stuff.

The only caveat I have is that we don't really vary the running game much, so while I'm optimistic that your point about the 4th quarter is valid, I can't ever remember a game we've had where I felt our rushing attack exhibited a whole lot of creativity in terms of what we ask the running backs to do.

I think we ran a more varied running offense in the first half of this game than at any point in Babers tenure. I thought we were running the option primarily for the first couple of drives.

Unrelated - but people keep saying “if we run Dungey like this he won’t last three games”
... but on the read option runs up the gut he was averaging 20+ yds or something ... how do you not keep running that in this game?

 

[A Clockwork Orange]

I think we ran a more varied running offense in the first half of this game than at any point in Babers tenure. I thought we were running the option primarily for the first couple of drives.

Unrelated - but people keep saying “if we run Dungey like this he won’t last three games”
... but on the read option runs up the gut he was averaging 20+ yds or something ... how do you not keep running that in this game?

Yep, that's part of the offense. And Dungey made those choices based on what he saw. I want Dungey to play 13 games more than anyone, but it has more to do with him making the choice to slide or go out of bounds than it does the option runs.