instead of qb rating, ANY/A (adj net yds/att) going back to 1985

[Millhouse]

Here's the formula. It's a yards per attempt stat that factors in td and int.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/about/glossary.htm

Since passing changes over time, I'm just comparing their ranks by season. it's relative to your peers. Some surprising results here.

Average ranking by player. It's an average of the yearly ranks so 2010 and 2012 are equally weighted even though he threw a million times more in 2012. I do it that way se we can go season by season and compare to other guys from that season

Some of these guys only played one year, Anderson, #11, and Robinson benefit from playing so bad that they got pulled and those worst years don't make it into the rankings

Philcox 5
Scharr 5
McNabb 8
McPherson 12
Mason 16
Graves 18
Robinson 34
Anderson 48
Nassib 58
Nunes 66
Patterson 90
Dantley 91
Hunt 91
Paulus 97

Paulus is a good example for a huge difference between regular passer rating and this stat. Ints factor in more here.

Best individual years
Year ANY/A Rank Player
1987 1 McPherson
1992 1 Graves
1985 2 McPherson
1995 2 McNabb
1997 4 McNabb
1988 5 Philcox
1989 5 Scharr
1998 8 McNabb
1994 16 Mason
1996 18 McNabb
1993 20 Graves
1990 22 Graves
2001 24 Anderson
1991 27 Graves
2012 33 Nassib
1986 34 McPherson
2007 34 Robinson
1999 41 Nunes
2006 60 Patterson
2010 67 Nassib
2014 70 Hunt
2003 71 Anderson
2011 74 Nassib
2000 76 Nunes
2002 80 Nunes
2008 91 Dantley
2009 97 Paulus
2004 98 Patterson
2005 111 Patterson
2013 112 Hunt

Nassib's 2012 season isn't in the top half. Surprising.

I wish they had thrown the ball more back in the day

 

[RF2044]

We need to find a way to factor in rushing. Being a dual threat QB provides a different way of making positive gains than passing alone, but that "value" is not accounted for in any way in the rankings [I know that isn't what you were calculating here]. Would be interesting to what results that type of multi-dimensional comparison would yield [I imagine that McPherson, Graves, McNabb and probably even Philcox would still rate atop the ratings; Hunt would probably jump up the list right behind that group--and possibly Mason].

And I can't believe that Scharr rated that highly on either list--talk about an outlier relative to his performance.

 

[Millhouse]

We need to find a way to factor in rushing. Being a dual threat QB provides a different way of making positive gains than passing alone, but that "value" is not accounted for in any way in the rankings [I know that isn't what you were calculating here]. Would be interesting to what results that type of multi-dimensional comparison would yield [I imagine that McPherson, Graves, McNabb and probably even Philcox would still rate atop the ratings; Hunt would probably jump up the list right behind that group--and possibly Mason].

And I can't believe that Scharr rated that highly on either list--talk about an outlier.

These days, most college qbs that run a lot have good passing stats. Hunt goofs it all up

they're usually in awesome offenses that spread the field giving them a million easy options. Considering how much hunt has the green light to run when someone's not open, his stats should be better on the plays where he does pass. It's not like he's some statue that has to throw the ball into coverage and sees his numbers drop.

I don't know what to make of the guy.

 

[RF2044]

These days, most college qbs that run a lot have good passing stats. Hunt goofs it all up

they're usually in awesome offenses that spread the field giving them a million easy options. Considering how much hunt has the green light to run when someone's not open, his stats should be better on the plays where he does pass. It's not like he's some statue that has to throw the ball into coverage and sees his numbers drop.

I don't know what to make of the guy.

It's not all on Hunt. Most of those qbs playing in spread offenses that have a million easy options also line up with playmaking WRs that get open and make things happen.

But at the end of the day, yards are yards, TDs are TDs--doesn't matter to me if they come through the air on on the ground. We need to score more, no matter how the points are attained.

 

[Millhouse]

It's not all on Hunt. Most of those qbs playing in spread offenses that have a million easy options also line up with playmaking WRs that get open and make things happen.

But at the end of the day, yards are yards, TDs are TDs--doesn't matter to me if they come through the air on on the ground. We need to score more, no matter how the points are attained.

it's not all on hunt. alot of it is on McDonald. so many wasted attempts. i think the WR are ok.

 

[GoSU96]

Here's the formula. It's a yards per attempt stat that factors in td and int.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/about/glossary.htm

Since passing changes over time, I'm just comparing their ranks by season. it's relative to your peers. Some surprising results here.

Average ranking by player. It's an average of the yearly ranks so 2010 and 2012 are equally weighted even though he threw a million times more in 2012. I do it that way se we can go season by season and compare to other guys from that season

Some of these guys only played one year, Anderson, #11, and Robinson benefit from playing so bad that they got pulled and those worst years don't make it into the rankings

Philcox 5
Scharr 5
McNabb 8
McPherson 12
Mason 16
Graves 18
Robinson 34
Anderson 48
Nassib 58
Nunes 66
Patterson 90
Dantley 91
Hunt 91
Paulus 97

Paulus is a good example for a huge difference between regular passer rating and this stat. Ints factor in more here.

Best individual years
Year ANY/A Rank Player
1987 1 McPherson
1992 1 Graves
1985 2 McPherson
1995 2 McNabb
1997 4 McNabb
1988 5 Philcox
1989 5 Scharr
1998 8 McNabb
1994 16 Mason
1996 18 McNabb
1993 20 Graves
1990 22 Graves
2001 24 Anderson
1991 27 Graves
2012 33 Nassib
1986 34 McPherson
2007 34 Robinson
1999 41 Nunes
2006 60 Patterson
2010 67 Nassib
2014 70 Hunt
2003 71 Anderson
2011 74 Nassib
2000 76 Nunes
2002 80 Nunes
2008 91 Dantley
2009 97 Paulus
2004 98 Patterson
2005 111 Patterson
2013 112 Hunt

Nassib's 2012 season isn't in the top half. Surprising.

I wish they had thrown the ball more back in the day

Much different type of offense. Higher yds per attempt and completion and TD %. Play action vertical passing game. That pass game was about firing for effect, not extended handoffs.

 

[RF2044]

it's not all on hunt. alot of it is on McDonald. so many wasted attempts. i think the WR are ok.

Don't agree with your last point--at all. The WRs are just a bunch of guys.

Estime showed promise given his speed / elusiveness at the end of last season, but hasn't shown that he's anywhere close to being a #1, at least not at this stage of his developmental curve.

The guy who might be our "best" WR [West] is a guy I think might be suited for a #3 role on good teams.

Broyld makes things happen--both good and bad.

I have high hopes for Ismael, but right now he's not ready.

The others are just guys. Average at best, if not below average.

I do agree that McDonald wastes plays.

 

[xc84]

Don't agree with your last point--at all. The WRs are just a bunch of guys.

Estime showed promise given his speed / elusiveness at the end of last season, but hasn't shown that he's anywhere close to being a #1, at least not at this stage of his developmental curve.

I think we all have been waiting from some dazzling moves from him and I have been surprised that he has not shown a lot so far at least from a cutting perspective. Now that we know of his ankle issues, I am assuming that's the reason.

 

[Millhouse]

Don't agree with your last point--at all. The WRs are just a bunch of guys.

Estime showed promise given his speed / elusiveness at the end of last season, but hasn't shown that he's anywhere close to being a #1, at least not at this stage of his developmental curve.

The guy who might be our "best" WR [West] is a guy I think might be suited for a #3 role on good teams.

Broyld makes things happen--both good and bad.

I have high hopes for Ismael, but right now he's not ready.

The others are just guys. Average at best, if not below average.

I do agree that McDonald wastes plays.

what do you think OK means?

 

[RF2044]

I think we all have been waiting from some dazzling moves from him and I have been surprised that he has not shown a lot so far at least from a cutting perspective. Now that we know of his ankle issues, I am assuming that's the reason.

That could very well be. And please note that I wasn't implying that Estime is or should be a true #1. Just that his speed / athleticism / elusiveness are the best we've got--which is really a sad indictment of the rest of the WR corps [I'll leave the frosh out of that criticism, as they haven't gotten a chance to demonstrate what they can do yet]. That Estime was primarily a DB in high school, but by the last 1/3 of his true freshman year was the best playmaker we had--by a mile--speaks volumes.

 

[RF2044]

what do you think OK means?

Adequate.

I'm not sure that our WR corps is adequate. It's like we're fielding a rotation of all #4 caliber pitchers and bottom of the rotation relievers.

Don't want to bog down on a pointless debate over sematics, so I'll take your word for it that we're on the same page.

 

[Millhouse]

Much different type of offense. Higher yds per attempt and completion and TD %. Play action vertical passing game. That pass game was about firing for effect, not extended handoffs.

agree but they were pretty good about limiting interceptions - that's the adjustment in the adj yards per attempt. those old qbs deserve credit for that.

and I'm comparing 1988 passers to 1988 passers which limits some of that difference. everyone's throwing a lot more screens now so by comparing to their peers, the players today aren't punished as much

 

[SUFan44]

ESPN has a Total QBR - I used this last year and people scoffed.

Gives a relative mark for a bunch of different categories, including rushing.

Hunt gets a 8.9 in the running category - 6th best in the country (I'd buy that.)

He also gets a 3.4 in the passing category - 109th in the country (I'd buy that too.)

Overall, he's 60th. Seems about right.

Last year, with all of his numbers included, he was 62nd. Nassib as a junior was 75th, as a senior was 37th.

All of these numbers make sense to me.

http://espn.go.com/ncf/qbr

 

[Millhouse]

ESPN has a Total QBR - I used this last year and people scoffed.

Gives a relative mark for a bunch of different categories, including rushing.

Hunt gets a 8.9 in the running category - 6th best in the country (I'd buy that.)

He also gets a 3.4 in the passing category - 109th in the country (I'd buy that too.)

Overall, he's 60th. Seems about right.

Last year, with all of his numbers included, he was 62nd. Nassib as a junior was 75th, as a senior was 37th.

All of these numbers make sense to me.

http://espn.go.com/ncf/qbr

i have a thing about that qbr, without knowing what's in it, i end up agreeing when it sounds right and disagreeing when it sounds wrong. doesn't really change my opinion ever becasue i have no idea what's in it

 

[IthacaBarrel]

If you watch Stanford play, West would have been a TE for them, IMO probably about 20 pounds heavier than he is now

 

[Millhouse]

If you watch Stanford play

i try like hell to avoid that. so do most of their fans

 

[phil77]

I am not ready to say our WR are bad, good or OK. We do not have a QB that can get them the ball on a regular basis. They are running routes that get them open but most of the time Hunt is misfiring or running. Its not like our WR are failing with the chances they are getting they just aren't getting any chance. Very hard to judge our talent at that position with the way the offense is working right now.

 

[RF2044]

I am not ready to say our WR are bad, good or OK. We do not have a QB that can get them the ball on a regular basis. They are running routes that get them open but most of the time Hunt is misfiring or running. Its not like our WR are failing with the chances they are getting they just aren't getting any chance. Very hard to judge our talent at that position with the way the offense is working right now.

Not sure that I agree with that--our WRs are dropping many catchable balls. I'm certainly not saying that you are entirely wrong, because I think the issues are systemic / not just one thing, but I don't agree with your assessment of what the WRs are doing. Right now, they are the weak link of the offense. Hunt has issues [but has been productive], the playcalling / coaching has issues, but both the OL / RBs have been strong. It is the WRs who aren't scaring anybody.

 

[SUFan44]

i have a thing about that qbr, without knowing what's in it, i end up agreeing when it sounds right and disagreeing when it sounds wrong. doesn't really change my opinion ever becasue i have no idea what's in it

I would be a bit skeptical too - but when you look at the list, I don't see many disagreements. Most of the really good college QB's are at the top. Most of the really bad ones are at the bottom.

Our guy is right in the middle - which is where I think anyone with any idea of the college game would rate him. Very good running QB - very bad passing QB. If he bumps the passing up just to bad, he becomes Top 40 which you can win 8 games with.

 

[phil77]

Not sure that I agree with that--our WRs are dropping many catchable balls. I'm certainly not saying that you are entirely wrong, because I think the issues are systemic / not just one thing, but I don't agree with your assessment of what the WRs are doing. Right now, they are the weak link of the offense. Hunt has issues [but has been productive], the playcalling / coaching has issues, but both the OL / RBs have been strong. It is the WRs who aren't scaring anybody.

And that is were I disagree I think Hunts inability to make all the throws on a consistent basis is what is killing our offense. Every program has WR drop ball the QB keeps firing it too them not tucking the ball and running. Hunts accuracy problems cause a lot of this. But that is a double edge sword also.

Hunts accuracy problems cause a lot of problems in the passing game but his running strengths is what is keeping this team alive and giving them a chance to win 50% of the games. I can't fairly judge the WR's because they do not get the ball on a regular basis.

Hunt has issues [but has been productive] on the ground not in the air. I would rather Hunt be productive in the air. There are throws to be made that Hunt doesn't make or doesn't see and runs instead.

 

[SUFan44]

And that is were I disagree I think Hunts inability to make all the throws on a consistent basis is what is killing our offense. Every program has WR drop ball the QB keeps firing it too them not tucking the ball and running. Hunts accuracy problems cause a lot of this. But that is a double edge sword also.

Hunts accuracy problems cause a lot of problems in the passing game but his running strengths is what is keeping this team alive and giving them a chance to win 50% of the games. I can't fairly judge the WR's because they do not get the ball on a regular basis.

Hunt has issues [but has been productive] on the ground not in the air. I would rather Hunt be productive in the air. There are throws to be made that Hunt doesn't make or doesn't see and runs instead.

There were how many throws that were off target by wide margins against Maryland? He completed 14-28, and there were at least 4 or 5 that were dropped and right on the money, including a potential big gainer to Broyld. So that makes it 19 out of 28 throws that were catchable, at minimum. If Estime wasn't 5-6, the corner route throw he had would have been caught too.

He's not a highly accurate QB, but he's good enough. Remember, McNabb was known for 4-5 gopher balls a game too.

 

[SoBristol]

One way to judge WRs -- do they get separation from good defenders?

There are some other aspects to consider -- do we have a legit deep threat? do our guys turn short passes into big plays with yards after the catch? in the red zone, are the WRs able to make plays?

 

[Millhouse]

here's a random stat about adj net yds per attempt

cherry picking alert - i'm starting with mcpherson

only two schools have more #1 rankings in this stat since 1987. florida has 5, boise state has 3.

should have thrown more....

here's a weird one. Temple led the country twice in 6 years in the 70s. had no idea they were any good then