Interesting article on transfers and how they perform.

[Qbobby]

Post Standard article about statistics on how players excel (or not) when transferring schools since 2016. On the plus side, apparently players that transfer TO Syracuse tend to do better here, while ones transferring out tend to do worse.

Basketball players who transfer to Syracuse fare better than players who transfer out (study)

Derek Howard, who crunches college basketball data for SBUnfurled, studied more than 7,000 college basketball transfers.

www.syracuse.com

Sounds like a potential recruiting pitch to future potential transfers...

Here’s a chart that explains all of it. The URate is a player evaluation formula Howard developed and uses to rate college basketball players. He updates it daily during the college basketball season, but right now it is populated by players still in the transfer portal. Howard said a URate of 5 or higher is considered good.

 

[rocklloyd]

Have not read the article but at a high level would it suggest we need to improve our talent evaluations for players without a college level body of work?

 

[Sbucketball]

Have not read the article but at a high level would it suggest we need to improve our talent evaluations for players without a college level body of work?

My first thought - also without really looking at the data or names - is this has to be heavily swayed because Cuse has been a zone program. JB recruited to his system (usually, at least), so he took HS recruits who first and foremost fit the mold of a zone player, although sometimes they wouldn't be as good at bball in a different system. So when they transfer out into a non-zone team, they risk being exposed since the old team (zone) fit their strengths/build but the new team (mtm maybe) didn't. Hence the downturn in production/minutes. And vice versa too - a good fit for the zone in a non-zone system could come to Cuse and play better because the system utilized his strengths. This wouldn't be true for everyone, but probably enough to make the data look great for Cuse.

 

[upperdeck]

Not that people care it could also be related to coaching.

 

[Sbucketball]

Not that people care it could also be related to coaching.

JB was a HOFer and got the most of out his guys. He often did more with less. I tend to think 95% of stats/studies are misleading or B.S. (wait, is that a stat?), so my mind typically immediately tries to think of why a study is misleading. But yes, I think most here would agree JB had a way of getting a lot out of his guys. That definitely affects it.

 

[Brooky03]

It comes down mostly to the reason these guys transfer. Guys transferring out usually do so because they’re not getting the minutes they want. They’re rarely transferring up or across in terms of program prestige; they’re usually transferring down. Worse programs with likely worse coaching, worse facilities, worse teammates are not going to be the formula for success in most cases.

Guys transferring to Syracuse are usually guys transferring up or across, not down. They’re guys who have proven they can play and they’re just seeking a better fit or a bigger stage.

The expected outcome would be that the guys transferring in would do better.

 

[twinight]

It comes down mostly to the reason these guys transfer. Guys transferring out usually do so because they’re not getting the minutes they want. They’re rarely transferring up or across in terms of program prestige; they’re usually transferring down. Worse programs with likely worse coaching, worse facilities, worse teammates are not going to be the formula for success in most cases.

Guys transferring to Syracuse are usually guys transferring up or across, not down. They’re guys who have proven they can play and they’re just seeking a better fit or a bigger stage.

The expected outcome would be that the guys transferring in would do better.

Not sure i agree with that hypothesis when I look at the list of schools transfers were going in and coming out of.

 

[MikeSU02]

I would need to see a lot more of this expanded upon as it pertains to the rest of P6/D1 to really trust what I'm seeing, but I'll say this, I do think JB had a very good eye for seeing how someone could help the program after he saw them on a D1 court.

That part of being the GM of the program, I think he really cooked at.

 

[RF2044]

I would need to see a lot more of this expanded upon as it pertains to the rest of P6/D1 to really trust what I'm seeing, but I'll say this, I do think JB had a very good eye for seeing how someone could help the program after he saw them on a D1 court.

That part of being the GM of the program, I think he really cooked at.

I'll take it a step further, because I think we see evidence of this every year at TBT with Boeheim's Army.

Every summer, I get excited to see new faces from recent SU teams past -- and I think, player x or player y were awesome at SU, so they'll kick butt in TBT.

And then I see them play, and I'm surprised by how limited they seem, relative to what we saw at SU.

I think we also see that played out when guys who look good at SU [like Guerrier] go to another team and struggle, or when a guy who looks so promising [like Woody Newton] can't get off the bench at the new school.

JB recruited system fits, and then coached them into positions where they could maximize their capabilities to succeed. Can't say that about every program / coach.

And outside of his HOF capabilities, those same players often can't come close to producing at that same level outside of the system.

 

[721Comstock]

I would need to see a lot more of this expanded upon as it pertains to the rest of P6/D1 to really trust what I'm seeing, but I'll say this, I do think JB had a very good eye for seeing how someone could help the program after he saw them on a D1 court.

That part of being the GM of the program, I think he really cooked at.

Yeah - 'everybody' said JAB was losing his mind when he took some random scrub from directional Carolina named Elijah Hughes, because he'd done nada of note at that level, so how could he possibly help Cuse?

We've had a lot more hits than misses with the inbound transfers at Cuse.

And only a handful of guys who left, who we wish hadn't.

Red certainly seems to have gotten off to a fantastic start with the inbound guys.
Very interested to see how they all pan out for us!

 

[UpstateSM]

I can’t stand Bona but Unfurled is a good dude and a really good CBB Twitter follow.

 

[jordville]

So go to Syracuse... obviously.

And you can go to Boise, St. Joe's, Valpo, George Mason, Santa Clara.

But don't go to OSU, Colorado, Zags, Dook, Cincy, V.Tech.

 

[Brooky03]

Not sure i agree with that hypothesis when I look at the list of schools transfers were going in and coming out of.

I don’t know if it holds up across the board, but this seems to be the case for the Syracuse transfers in and out.

 

[Fat tire 13]

Interesting study there

This mostly makes sense, first looking at the guys who left

-BJ Johnson was the one guy who really made the leap after transferring.
-You can mostly ignore someone like Kaleb Joseph, who barely played at each school.
-Jalen Carey was coming off such a low number, it didn't take much to show improvement
-Kadary was already a good player, and has stayed the same since transferring

On the flip side, players either maintained or improved URate every time they came to Cuse.

Like the others, I'm very curious to see how that trend continues under Red. I would venture to say the numbers will look good in a year because the guys coming in have more room to improve.

 

[MikeSU02]

I'll take it a step further, because I think we see evidence of this every year at TBT with Boeheim's Army.

Every summer, I get excited to see new faces from recent SU teams past -- and I think, player x or player y were awesome at SU, so they'll kick butt in TBT.

And then I see them play, and I'm surprised by how limited they seem, relative to what we saw at SU.

I think we also see that played out when guys who look good at SU [like Guerrier] go to another team and struggle, or when a guy who looks so promising [like Woody Newton] can't get off the bench at the new school.

JB recruited system fits, and then coached them into positions where they could maximize their capabilities to succeed. Can't say that about every program / coach.

And outside of his HOF capabilities, those same players often can't come close to producing at that same level outside of the system.

Yeah, I get how everyone talks about Heat Culture or the Spurs when discussing how they get the best out of all their players (obviously NBA v college is VERY different).

But I do think there is something to be said for JB and being able to project people into the right role to get the most out of them in a lot of cases.

IMO and IMO only, our 2012 team had a lot of just pure talent. Top to bottom. We were going to beat ya down when we were fully rostered.

But when you look at 2010, a team that I absolutely love, look at the performance of those players. a thirty win team with Wes (a transfer who had performed in the B12, but not at 1st Team AA level that year obviously) and the next best player was... Rautins? A number of choices. But you look at K Jo, Rick, etc... Point being is that JB put together teams of guys that fit. Rautins averaging almost 5 assists a game is just a thing of beauty. And he did it the year after that 09 team, which was another brute force talent team again, imo, that JB wasn't very "JB" like in an ideal state.

I know that is sort of off the rails from the main point of this thread, but I think it's in the same universe. And I feel like JB was keenly aware when he had the pieces that fit to make the whole really hum.

My favorite NBA team of all time, in terms of style of play, is the 2014 Spurs. You know who was a key cog in that team? BORIS "YES I HAVE AN ESPRESSO MACHINE IN MY LOCKER" DIAW.

I feel like that is the type of instance, on the college level, where JB really excelled at when he was locked in. He would take a limited player and put that dude in a position to just be his best self.

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

Have not read the article but at a high level would it suggest we need to improve our talent evaluations for players without a college level body of work?

Or, we develop players better than other programs.