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Message: [QUOTE="Orangezoo, post: 884909, member: 237"] Of course you rarely have an r val of 1. That means squat as a counter to my point. These guys do that type of analysis because there is a market of readers and sports betters that will give them the hits they need to make it seem worthwhile to continue. Spreads have been successfully bet on for years without these type of models. The reason why is that you can assess match ups by watching those teams play. Its also much different in pro vs college. Lets also not forget that once an injury occurs you simply cant just re calibrate a model or if a player has a slump or is psychologically down... [/QUOTE]