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[QUOTE="Orangezoo, post: 885136, member: 237"]
Also the reality is that if a model requires over fitting after scrumming it out then it is something you simply cant model. But you still have to realize that pomeroy vs vegas is not a model. Its just a comparison. And one where similar methodologies are used. Prove to me someone doesnt use a simpler approach to get 80 pct.

I presume you have never participated in or conducted an internal audit of a model. The whole intent is to assess how it is fitted. You over value performance which is likely due to you experience with the type of modeling you referenced. Performance is still only as good as how well it is fitted. Anything that has a large pct of qualitative factors affecting the outcome will always end up being over fitted by those who look at it in a logical sense. As a modeler you will argue performance and still getting a good result. Combine the two and you either accept an ok model or realize there is too small of a benefit to even model it out.
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