Is the magic number 9 ACC wins?

[OrlandoCuse]

I've seen a lot of talk that 9 ACC wins is the magic number to qualify for the NCAA tournament. I'd agree with that if we didn't have BC twice on our schedule.

Seems to me we need to get to 10 ACC wins to feel comfortable. ACC tourney is going to be extremely difficult this year so I don't want to wait until then to get to 10.

Need to go 5-3 in our last 8.

 

[Cuse House]

I've seen a lot of talk that 9 ACC wins is the magic number to qualify for the NCAA tournament. I'd agree with that if we didn't have BC twice on our schedule.

Seems to me we need to get to 10 ACC wins to feel comfortable. ACC tourney is going to be extremely difficult this year so I don't want to wait until then to get to 10.

Need to go 5-3 in our last 8.

Don't see why we can't get to 10. Even 11 is not out of the realm of possibilities. Louisville is a winnable game in my mind, they are good, but not great.

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

If SU wins 10 games, JB should be coach of the year.

 

[MSOrange]

Don't see why we can't get to 10. Even 11 is not out of the realm of possibilities. Louisville is a winnable game in my mind, they are good, but not great.

I have the same thing in the back of my mind about the Louisville game but being on the road makes me nervous.

 

[iommi]

9-9 and we will probably be in, 10-8 definitely in. If we go 9-9 and lose in the first ACC tourney game, we'd have a sweat for sure.

 

[upperdeck]

dont we have 5 games left with teams behind us . we need 4-1 at worst.

 

[upperdeck]

one other variable. Duke is 4-4 they have NC twice, UL twice, UV and @ pitt. they could lose them all finish 8-10 and our 9-9 with a win would put us ahead of them as they would have zero top 25 wins

 

[jncuse]

If you want to feel 100% safe then 10-8 is the figure.

But right now 9-9 is clearly over 50% in my view.

The consensus has us just in before today (when we were 4-5). While we are shown as the last team out, it is a rolling one week matrix. 28 of the 34 brackets submitted after the Notre Dame win have us in. I can't see why 5-4 would not maintain that position, and why we would need to go 6-3**

http://www.bracketmatrix.com

** That first tourney game could be a danger game if we go 9-9 however. I would not like to face Georgia Tech for example on a neutral floor if they are not a tourney team. Or the 8-9 game could almost be a play-in game.

Also, if you look at RPI Forecast, which shows us at 9-9 we would be in as of now, and as a group it should stay relatively the same level.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html

I did some quick calculations, based on projected RPI we would be the 43rd of the 46 spots available to conferences that could get multiple bids. Of course not everything is based on RPI,

That means you need to find 4 teams with a projected RPI below us on that list with a better resume. It's not an easy task.

There is no certainty to any of this, but all the tools indicate that 9-9 is the much more likely than not number (with an ACC tourney win)

 

[jncuse]

one other variable. Duke is 4-4 they have NC twice, UL twice, UV and @ pitt. they could lose them all finish 8-10 and our 9-9 with a win would put us ahead of them as they would have zero top 25 wins

They also don't have a St. John's on their resume which is just as important as a top 50 win (in a bad way). They do have wins over VCU, Indiana, and Georgetown in OOC. It would be fairly close.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

Texas A&M win might the the single biggest factor that puts us over the top.

 

[creatorsgam]

They also don't have a St. John's on their resume which is just as important as a top 50 win (in a bad way). They do have wins over VCU, Indiana, and Georgetown in OOC. It would be fairly close.

But I love the head-to-head as a tiebreaker, especially on the road.

 

[rrlbees]

one other variable. Duke is 4-4 they have NC twice, UL twice, UV and @ pitt. they could lose them all finish 8-10 and our 9-9 with a win would put us ahead of them as they would have zero top 25 wins

Yikes! Didn't realize Duke had that kind of schedule left.

 

[pearl31]

Yikes! Didn't realize Duke had that kind of schedule left.

they should be getting Jefferson back, but yeah they got a brutal road

 

[iommi]

Texas A&M win might the the single biggest factor that puts us over the top.

Nah, A & M was a home game.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Texas A&M win might the the single biggest factor that puts us over the top.

A&M holds on against Iowa State today 72-62.