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[QUOTE="jncuse, post: 1641703, member: 1969"]
If you want to feel 100% safe then 10-8 is the figure.

But right now 9-9 is clearly over 50% in my view.

The consensus has us just in before today (when we were 4-5).    While we are shown as the last team out, it is a rolling one week matrix.   28 of the 34 brackets submitted after the Notre Dame win have us in.     I can't see why 5-4 would not maintain that position, and why we would need to go 6-3**

[URL]http://www.bracketmatrix.com[/URL]

** That first tourney game could be a danger game if we go 9-9 however.  I would not like to face Georgia Tech for example on a neutral floor if they are not a tourney team.  Or the 8-9 game could almost be a play-in game.

Also, if you look at RPI Forecast, which shows us at 9-9 we would be in as of now, and as a group it should stay relatively the same level.

[URL]http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html[/URL]

I did some quick calculations, based on projected RPI we would be the 43rd of the 46 spots available to conferences that could get multiple bids.   Of course not everything is based on RPI,

That means you need to find 4 teams with a projected RPI below us on that list with a better resume.   It's not an easy task.

There is no certainty to any of this, but all the tools indicate that 9-9 is the much more likely than not number (with an ACC tourney win)
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