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Message: [QUOTE="007, post: 808754, member: 393"] It is more than somewhat predictive, there is an overwhelmingly positive correlation. From a report from CSSsports.com: [IMG]http://www.cbssports.com/images/collegefootball/2008-12_Recruiting-Head-to-Head_Chart.jpg[/IMG] On the final count, the higher-ranked team according to the recruiting rankings won almost exactly two-thirds of the time (66.4 percent of the time, to be exact), and every "class" as a whole had a winning record against every class ranked below it [I]every single year[/I]. (The only exception, if it even qualifies, came last year, when "two-star" teams finished one game below .500 in head-to-head collisions with "one-star" teams. Elsewhere, the hierarchy held across every line.) The gap on the field also widened with the gap in the recruiting scores: At the extremes, "one-star" recruiting teams managed a grand total of six wins over "four-star" and "five-star" recruiters in 59 tries. Where a small handful of teams defied their rankings, none managed to do so as part of a larger group. Which is, again, about as accurate as we can realistically expect from a system designed to predict an uncertain future. [B]So What?[/B] The evidence is overwhelming: Despite some obvious, anecdotal exceptions, on the whole recruiting rankings clearly [I]are [/I]useful for creating a realistic baseline for expectations. But the narrower your focus, the less useful they will become. The massively hyped, five-star recruit headlining your team's next recruiting class may be an irredeemable bust; he is also many times more likely than a scrappy three-star to pan out as an All-American and move on to the next level. Somewhere, an under-scouted afterthought with a chip on his shoulder will almost certainly go on to defy the odds, become a star and maybe win the Heisman Trophy. But that doesn't change the odds, which are against him becoming anything more than an obscure role player, at best. Inevitably, a team full of afterthoughts at the bottom of the rankings will defy the odds, catch fire, pull a few upsets and storm its way into a BCS bowl. But that doesn't change the odds, which are in favor of the same team dwindling on the edge of bowl eligibility. And just as inevitably, the eventual national champion will emerge from the ranks of the handful of teams that consistently come out on top on signing day. [url]http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/eye-on-college-football/21641769[/url] [/QUOTE]

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