JB and analytics

[pearl31]

can’t remember - is he a momeyball guy?
Even if he is just a little, you gotta figure he sees the +/- and other glaring #s with Richmond in the game vs Girard. Let’s hope that—cold objective numbers—drives minutes between the two moving forward

 

[billsin01]

can’t remember - is he a momeyball guy?
Even if he is just a little, you gotta figure he sees the +/- and other glaring #s with Richmond in the game vs Girard. Let’s hope that—cold objective numbers—drives minutes between the two moving forward

My guess is yes and yes you'll see this happen. Think he wants Girard to play out of his funk, which is logical as well, but I've always said I think JB is a numbers guy. I think it's what drove the move to zone full-time (initially, at least) and why he loves sitting on the ball the last 4 minutes with any sort of lead. I know everyone hates it but I think it's why he also sticks with a 7-man rotation most years. Identify your best players -- at least in his opinion -- and ride them as much as you can since A) they're better than the other guys and B) they get constant TV timeouts. Not saying he's right but just saying I think he at least believes the metrics are on his side on those things.

 

[stuckinbig11]

can’t remember - is he a momeyball guy?
Even if he is just a little, you gotta figure he sees the +/- and other glaring #s with Richmond in the game vs Girard. Let’s hope that—cold objective numbers—drives minutes between the two moving forward

I seem to recall that Joe had 21 in the last game; maybe JB saw that also.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

It's intuitive to him.

 

[Bayside44]

can’t remember - is he a momeyball guy?
Even if he is just a little, you gotta figure he sees the +/- and other glaring #s with Richmond in the game vs Girard. Let’s hope that—cold objective numbers—drives minutes between the two moving forward

I posted an article in The Athletic a few weeks ago about he game preps. He's a constant plus/ minus thinker and is for the simplest path to success. He's been Moneyball long before anyone thought of it.

 

[donniesyracuse]

can’t remember - is he a momeyball guy?
Even if he is just a little, you gotta figure he sees the +/- and other glaring #s with Richmond in the game vs Girard. Let’s hope that—cold objective numbers—drives minutes between the two moving forward

An analytics person would probably roll his/her eyes about simple plus-minus. Adjusted-plus-minus or some of the other plus-minus variants are far better, but an analytics person would also warn against interpreting data after just seven games.

 

[SWC75]

JB's actually criticized the +/- stat in past years but he's referred to it a couple of times this year. he is correct in say that with three guards there will be plenty of playing time, although when Bourama comes back it will be interesting to see if Griffin becomes a fourth guard.

I think eventually he'll see the wisdom of starting Kadary and Buddy and having Joe come off the bench because he's the only guy who can play both positions and could thus get starter's minutes or close to it subbing for the other two. Also, I think you want a shooter available to come off the bench for "instant offense", (you hope). That's not Kadary.

 

[hoopsupstate]

I don’t think this is Joe vs. Kadary, but Joe vs Buddy. At least Joe can make plays and dribble.

 

[Brooky03]

Idk if this is a hot take, but +/- is one of the most useless stats available, imo

 

[Newhouser]

I don’t think this is Joe vs. Kadary, but Joe vs Buddy. At least Joe can make plays and dribble.

I think that's a bit rough on Buddy's skill set but I too think Joe's minutes have to come from Buddy (unlikely) or when Kadary struggles which I don't think will be often as he and Marek are our keys in my opinion. In short, I think Joe's minutes are few in the future and not sure that's right. He can play.

 

[donniesyracuse]

Idk if this is a hot take, but +/- is one of the most useless stats available, imo

It’s certainly not an advanced metric.

 

[pearl31]

It’s certainly not an advanced metric.

who called it that?

 

[DonLightfoot]

If you listen to JB's press conferences there is always at least one question about Kadary starting in place of Joe. That sure gets his dander up. After the last game he essentially told the reporter to go out and get a team to coach and then they can make the decisions. We all know coach is stubborn and if he in fact did this it would be like giving in to the reporters and social media comments. Not his style that I have seen. Who knows, it just may happen.

I mentioned in another thread recently that I don't get hung up too much on who starts as long as we are winning and the right players are in the game when need be. This debate will obviously continue and it makes very good reading. At least I enjoy the various points made.

 

[br801]

It's intuitive to him.

Yes, I believe he's been an "analytics from the gut" guy from before analytics were a thing. Whether he can continue to successfully adjust what he does as the nature of the game evolves is the question, IMO.

 

[OrangeDW]

I don’t think this is Joe vs. Kadary, but Joe vs Buddy. At least Joe can make plays and dribble.

All the same, at least Buddy can get a shot off that’s not a 30 footer, when the other team plays defense.

They both have different strengths/weaknesses. Between our 3 guards, I think there’s enough there to have a solid backcourt.

 

[SBU72]

I have come to believe that JB takes it all as 1 game at a time. I wonder if he is obsessed with getting back to 1000 wins so each current game is important to win. It seems since they took those wins away, he has shortened up the rotation and increased the starters time to get wins.

 

[Briancuse]

I have come to believe that JB takes it all as 1 game at a time. I wonder if he is obsessed with getting back to 1000 wins so each current game is important to win. It seems since they took those wins away, he has shortened up the rotation and increased the starters time to get wins.

I really don't think he cares that much about it, plus he will get them back at some point anyway.

 

[IthacaMatt]

I don’t think this is Joe vs. Kadary, but Joe vs Buddy. At least Joe can make plays and dribble.

And on the other hand, Buddy takes far fewer awful shots, he is a better shooter, and can get you 20 points with less effort than Joe can. Joe needs to get to the line a lot to be most effective. He takes 2 or 3 terrible threes a game that other players would be benched for. He's not Steph Curry.

 

[cuseinseattle]

I say an interview once where Jay Bilas referred to Boeheim as the god father of analytics. He said he was basically doing the stuff 20 years before anyone else. Forcing teams into shots he knew statistically would not be successful no matter what small sample sizes suggested.

 

[jgeorge322]

can’t remember - is he a momeyball guy?
Even if he is just a little, you gotta figure he sees the +/- and other glaring #s with Richmond in the game vs Girard. Let’s hope that—cold objective numbers—drives minutes between the two moving forward

Hes been coaching 40 damn years. The numbers dont coach.

 

[kirbivore]

My guess is yes and yes you'll see this happen. Think he wants Girard to play out of his funk, which is logical as well, but I've always said I think JB is a numbers guy. I think it's what drove the move to zone full-time (initially, at least) and why he loves sitting on the ball the last 4 minutes with any sort of lead. I know everyone hates it but I think it's why he also sticks with a 7-man rotation most years. Identify your best players -- at least in his opinion -- and ride them as much as you can since A) they're better than the other guys and B) they get constant TV timeouts. Not saying he's right but just saying I think he at least believes the metrics are on his side on those things.

Probably won't happen in his twilight years but if he looked at the avg. 3 pt. % makes he must notice that the shooters are much better than in 1996 and there are more 35%+ on each team since then.

 

[Brooky03]

Not long ago, Kenpom noted that Syracuse was a statistical anomaly when it came to 3 point defense (anomalous in a good way). I wonder if that has held true in the last 5 years. If we’ve gotten worse, do we think it’s the personnel (most teams in these years were held together with sticks and bubblegum)? Or do we think teams just shoot and move the ball so much better that the zone can’t keep up?

I’m of the opinion it’s personnel related and the zone, our zone, is as good at defending the 3 as any m2m defense.

 

[Col. Bleep]

...numbers dont coach.

That's t-shirt material right there.
Wish I'd said it.

Very interesting thread.

 

[Todoubled23]

Not long ago, Kenpom noted that Syracuse was a statistical anomaly when it came to 3 point defense (anomalous in a good way). I wonder if that has held true in the last 5 years. If we’ve gotten worse, do we think it’s the personnel (most teams in these years were held together with sticks and bubblegum)? Or do we think teams just shoot and move the ball so much better that the zone can’t keep up?

I’m of the opinion it’s personnel related and the zone, our zone, is as good at defending the 3 as any m2m defense.

Yeah when we've got the personnel the zone is lethal.