JB Strategy change?...and why?

[Sgt Cuse]

Seems since '09-'10 JB has changed his starting/substitution patterns. Prior to '09-'10 it seemed JB started his best 5 players and played them pretty much the entire game, subbing mainly as a foul management tool.

In '09-'10, things seemed to have changed, he started AO and RJ together, not the best lineup and one he never intended to use at the end of the game. He also gave BT the starting nod over Scoop. They seemed pretty similar, with Scoop having the slight edge IMO. It seemed a departure from going with the veteran.
In '10-'11 he gave Fab the start over BMK, who seemed to outplay him. And RJ was actually the best at center. The best lineup was not the one that started.
In '11-'12 he gave X-Mas the token start while CJ totally outplayed him (and CJ was the veteran). Also gave the start to BT over Dion. Once again, the starters were never the intended closers.

I am with what I sense is the majority who like the change. Most post game rants were for more (ie more MCW, more subs in the second half, etc). Only a couple of people were bummed - crying that poor Dion didn't get a start (surprisingly no one seems to care about poor CJ who has been vicitimized by this).

But can anyone tell me why they think JB changed? And why the token starts, the X-Mas stuff?
I had such a hard time processing this that I even started to buy into the conspiracy recruiting theory at one point. Thinking he must have promised a starting gig to get them to come here. But each of Fab/X-mas had a game where they didn't start, which made that deal too complex for me to continue to believe. Any ideas?

 

[br801]

But can anyone tell me why they think JB changed? And why the token starts, the X-Mas stuff?
I had such a hard time processing this that I even started to buy into the conspiracy recruiting theory at one point. Thinking he must have promised a starting gig to get them to come here. But each of Fab/X-mas had a game where they didn't start, which made that deal too complex for me to continue to believe. Any ideas?

I really have no idea if JB has consciously changed his approach. But I really like the idea of the token starts for guys who figure to be important rotation players in the future. They get some game experience, and if they're playing well they can get significant minutes which can speed their development and prepare them for a bigger role if needed due to injury or foul trouble. If they're not playing effectively or JB sees something he doesn't like, he can give them a quick hook. If JB doesn't start these guys, he's less likely to sub them in against better opponents or in close games and their overall development will be slower.

 

[stuckinbig11]

Your use of "IMO" answers your question. JB sees his players in practice every day and knows what he is looking for. He has also had the luxury of more options to choose from in recent years.

 

[Sgt Cuse]

I really have no idea if JB has consciously changed his approach. But I really like the idea of the token starts for guys who figure to be important rotation guys in the future. They get some game experience, and if they're playing well they can get significant minutes which can speed their development and prepare them for a bigger role if needed due to injury or foul trouble. If they're not playing effectively or JB sees something he doesn't like, he can give them a quick hook. If JB doesn't start these guys, he's less likely to sub them in against better opponents or in close games and their overall development will be slower.

I like the increased subbing. I really think it has helped the defensive intensity. No longer is the defense a place for the starters to rest.

I certainly think it has been a conscious change. I can't remember him starting someone for 4 minutes before.
I think he has kind of forced it on himself. It feels like it goes against his previous grain. It seems like if things are close he will tighten up the rotation.

I like the direction. I hope he keeps working on it. I don't know what prompted him to do it.

 

[Sgt Cuse]

Your use of "IMO" answers your question. JB sees his players in practice every day and knows what he is looking for. He has also had the luxury of more options to choose from in recent years.

That could explain the BT/Scoop and BT/Dion decisions but it still doesn't explain the X-Mas over CJ start. At the least that had to be developmentally motivated.

 

[stuckinbig11]

That could explain the BT/Scoop and BT/Dion decisions but it still doesn't explain the X-Mas over CJ start. At the least that had to be developmentally motivated.

Likely a promise made to Rakeem.

 

[newmexicuse]

Seems since '09-'10 JB has changed his starting/substitution patterns. Prior to '09-'10 it seemed JB started his best 5 players and played them pretty much the entire game, subbing mainly as a foul management tool.

In '09-'10, things seemed to have changed, he started AO and RJ together, not the best lineup and one he never intended to use at the end of the game. He also gave BT the starting nod over Scoop. They seemed pretty similar, with Scoop having the slight edge IMO. It seemed a departure from going with the veteran.
In '10-'11 he gave Fab the start over BMK, who seemed to outplay him. And RJ was actually the best at center. The best lineup was not the one that started.
In '11-'12 he gave X-Mas the token start while CJ totally outplayed him (and CJ was the veteran). Also gave the start to BT over Dion. Once again, the starters were never the intended closers.

I am with what I sense is the majority who like the change. Most post game rants were for more (ie more MCW, more subs in the second half, etc). Only a couple of people were bummed - crying that poor Dion didn't get a start (surprisingly no one seems to care about poor CJ who has been vicitimized by this).

But can anyone tell me why they think JB changed? And why the token starts, the X-Mas stuff?
I had such a hard time processing this that I even started to buy into the conspiracy recruiting theory at one point. Thinking he must have promised a starting gig to get them to come here. But each of Fab/X-mas had a game where they didn't start, which made that deal too complex for me to continue to believe. Any ideas?

Nice observation, Sarge, good post.

So far the change seems to have worked because the kids involved have bought into the starter/substitution pattern.

If everybody is on the same page, let it continue. However, if a starting caliber player (who did not get starts such as Dion or CJ) really wants the start then that kid should be given what he has earned. Of course, as you point out, this doesn't affect certain situations such as MCW where perhaps more minutes were deserved.

I think this is a communications issue to be resolved between the staff & the players involved - so far so good.

 

[Sgt Cuse]

Likely a promise made to Rakeem.

Seemed like it to me for a while. And I don't mind if JB can keep the locker room intact. Getiing big time recruits takes some doing.
But I thought there was a game Rak didn't start. So it does get complicated.

Starting for developmental reasons would seem to get you more than a minute or two - which actually happened a couple of times. So, I don't have it figured out.

 

[Sgt Cuse]

Nice observation, Sarge, good post.

So far the change seems to have worked because the kids involved have bought into the starter/substitution pattern.

If everybody is on the same page, let it continue. However, if a starting caliber player (who did not get starts such as Dion or CJ) really wants the start then that kid should be given what he has earned. Of course, as you point out, this doesn't affect certain situations such as MCW where perhaps more minutes were deserved.

I think this is a communications issue to be resolved between the staff & the players involved - so far so good.

I think it has worked well.
I think we'll see more next year. DC2 will get the start. I think we may actually witness the first one (a McD big given the start) to deserve it.

I hope the positive results keep JB pushing what I think is his comfort zone. Although I don't think he will have a 4th guard the quality of MCW for a long time to come.

 

[RobNJOrange]

Jb made a concientiious decision to change his substitution pattern right after they won the olympics. He came back and said that they were playing the big stars approximating 20 minutes and they wer preoducting the same if they were in the game for 30+ minutes. He noticed that if the top players knew they were in the game for 20 to 25 minutes , they would make sure that they produced during that time frame. He started to do that with the SU players. Tried to get them to produce at a higher level during a fewer number of minutes. (This respnose does not relate to putting in a starter for 2 to 3 minutes).

 

[PeteCalvin]

Jb made a concientiious decision to change his substitution pattern right after they won the olympics. He came back and said that they were playing the big stars approximating 20 minutes and they wer preoducting the same if they were in the game for 30+ minutes. He noticed that if the top players knew they were in the game for 20 to 25 minutes , they would make sure that they produced during that time frame. He started to do that with the SU players. Tried to get them to produce at a higher level during a fewer number of minutes. (This respnose does not relate to putting in a starter for 2 to 3 minutes).

Nail on the head. This topic was discussed two years ago when JB started opening his substitutions and developing depth. He was quoted in an article how his time with the Olympic team totally changed his idea of having to play guys 30+ minutes. The philosophy with Team USA was "you're only going to get about 20 mins per game, but when you get those minutes we need to go hard for every minute you're out there. If you need a rest, take the rest. The next guy is going to come in fresh and play hard. When he needs the rest, you're back in." They molded these players into a high functioning, full throttle machine by limiting minutes and playing balls-out. Obviously they don't have the same drop off in talent that a college team would have, but that's the premise. JB had a deep enough team last season to play that style. The idea proved successful in the Olympics. When the international teams' starters were gassed in the final 5 minutes, the US was still running and guarding with ferocity. The decision to limit playing time was meant to improve our team defense, which K did a masterful job at.

 

[Cusefaninvirginia]

Jb made a concientiious decision to change his substitution pattern right after they won the olympics. He came back and said that they were playing the big stars approximating 20 minutes and they wer preoducting the same if they were in the game for 30+ minutes. He noticed that if the top players knew they were in the game for 20 to 25 minutes , they would make sure that they produced during that time frame. He started to do that with the SU players. Tried to get them to produce at a higher level during a fewer number of minutes. (This respnose does not relate to putting in a starter for 2 to 3 minutes).

good post, i think that's dead on as to why total minutes are being spread around more evenly, as opposed to 3 or 4 players getting 35+. as for the other part of it - why is JB starting Fab Melo and Christmas as freshmen when there are players starting the game on the bench (like Fair last year) who are playing more productive minutes - I don't think JB made any recruiting promises to these guys about starting to get them to commit to SU. at least Mike Waters insists JB's never made any promises like that. i think it's just a tough love, carrot and stick, coaching technique to motivate his 5 star McD's guys. it's like he's saying "okay, you got the start, but i don't care if you were a McD aa, i'm going to pull you the second i see you make a mistake. last game you only lasted 2 minutes before getting pulled. let's see how long you can last this game. don't up." I guess JB liked how it worked for Fab's development. hopefully it'll pay off for christmas this coming year. it also makes you wonder whether he'll use a similar strategy with DaJuan Coleman, although Coleman's game seems more college ready coming out of high school than the other guys, at least on offense, so maybe that won't be an issue as long as his defense isn't a liability early on.

 

[realorange]

I don't think there is any big mystery here. For the first time in many years, JB has quality players that he can go deep on the bench. As for Christmas, JB wants him to be ready to play a lot of minutes at PF and that's why he got the opportunity to play last year. Most games he came out very quickly after starting, but there were a couple of games he produced and stayed longer. As someone said, carrot and stick. He will start again this year and be ready for extended minutes that he would not have gotten without the push he was given last year.
With the depth of talent we have, there is merit to the plan of substitution to keep players fresh. But look for those who are getting it done on any given night to be the ones to finish the game.

 

[orange2win]

Good post Sgt. It's my read there is a lot of stuff going on here, just as you note. JB has changed many of his past rules in the last couple of years. Some I like some I do not.

I am not complaining because he has fixed his greatest deficiency. Playing who is hot on the day - coaching in real time - rather than going with a pre-decided line-up. This has improved his performance immensely IMO, even if he has wimped out at times.

Of the changes I have a problem, I will list just one. How do you NEVER start one of the best guards in the county, possibly a lottery pick? For me that's not Olympian, it's disrespectful.

Nevertheless, the overall results have been excellent, so I am just watching and enjoying. Well done JB.

 

[Sgt Cuse]

Good post Sgt. It's my read there is a lot of stuff going on here, just as you note. JB has changed many of his past rules in the last couple of years. Some I like some I do not.

I am not complaining because he has fixed his greatest deficiency. Playing who is hot on the day - coaching in real time - rather than going with a pre-decided line-up. This has improved his performance immensely IMO, even if he has wimped out at times.

Of the changes I have a problem, I will list just one. How do you NEVER start one of the best guards in the county, possibly a lottery pick? For me that's not Olympian, it's disrespectful.

Nevertheless, the overall results have been excellent, so I am just watching and enjoying. Well done JB.

I like the change too. I wish/hope it continues. I hope he is still evolving and will continue liberally subbing even more in the future- like in the second halves.

As to the problem you mention, you are really trying to push JB along. Starting MCW would have been a stretch (I'm assuming that is what you are talking about). I would have taken playing him more. I would have liked to see more second halves. And some time in the NCAAT.
-Just reread your post and realized you were probably talking about Dion. I'm not sure what happened there. I'm not sure how BT got the star treatment. I do think JB was fed up with Dion after last year and had a talk before bringing/allowing him back as to what the situation would be. I think it was a surprise to a lot of people that Scoop + Dion came back. I don't think MCW and Cooney expected it.

JB does have that 34-3 scoreboard kind of thing that has really quieted these criticisms though.

 

[VaBeachOrFan]

A couple of more possible reasons for the change, in addition to those mentioned: (1) Starting "green" players like Fab and Rak gives them some playing time when (as mentioned) their chances would diminish sharply as the game wears on, and it provides a good "teaching moment" when they foul up and go to the remedial seat. (2) They also get to sop up some fouls that a starting big man would get (and limit his effectiveness) while allowing the coaches to gauge how the refs are calling the game. (3) SU's program is now at the stage where they don't have to recruit developmental projects that will take two years to become value-added; blue-chippers can play out of the box, so why not let them and thereby encourage more to sign up.

That said, I'm not advocating SU join the "one-year college" ranks because The Zone takes time to master. You need good players, with an occasional star with leadership qualities sprinkled in. Cuse is coming as close to that formula as they ever have. Now, if they could just keep their 5s healthy during the tournament run, they could be Frequent Final Fours.-VBOF

P.S.: I think the change officially started with the 2009-10 team that minted the "Starting Seven" phrase. It morphed to Ten Starters this season, and I for one hope that theme sticks from here on out.-V

 

[orangefan13]

I just think its the coincidence of player readiness. This years team was coincidentally ready.

Joseph Scoop AO and Jackson all made the jump and got healthy for 09-10. But, that team still only went 8 deep and 7 using Dashonte as a fill in when AO went down (not a true member of the rotation, similar to Rak at PF this year).

It just so happens that this years team was a melting pot of strengths and differences with all american fresh/soph youth.
Really it came down to the frontcourt though.
1 CJ had the high post scoring that the rest of the team didn't. He also was our best defensive forward.
2.Kris on the other hand had the dribble attack at forward and the occasional pull up jumper to be able to play a perimeter forward(which is pretty much a must have). He was a isolation forward and returning strarter.
3. Fab melo was the defensive big and Keita was a hustler at center.
4.Southerland was the kind of guy who could get hot this last year. He had deeper range, and a quick trigger from deep that CJ and KJO didn't. However if he ever got cold for 6-7 straight big east games he could have played himself out of the lineup for the rest of the year.
5. Rak was never really in the rotation at PF he was a fill in learning how to play.
6. You have to play 3 guards reguardless unless we go with a combo forward/guard. That being said MCW really didn't get alot of playing time because we had three solid guards ahead of him that were slightly better due to experience.

So in conclusion MCW, Rak at PF, and James really were wild cards. None were confidently in the lineup as more then fill ins to late in the season, or to Fab sat out for academics. Granted Rak played PF only most of the season.

I would think JB would prefer having 10 guys who are ready to play though. I would think any coach would. While it may be more relaxing not needing to worry about playing time arguments the more weapons the better for most teams. On the other hand Some nights you got to leave a player in there more then 5 minutes just to feel comfortbale and get going.

 

[Rossco123]

All good stuff. Just like to add that head coaches and staff that succeed at this level communicate with their players in a way that leaves nothing to doubt. They also have their player's backs.
When was the last time that JB threw one of his guys under the bus --- never.
This loyalty, more than anything else buys patience from pros and future pros.

 

[bnoro]

Likely a promise made to Rakeem.

No, it wasn't.

 

[BlazeOrange]

Could it also be like a "special teams" lineup for the opening jump ball? The start is pretty much the only time they do that now so maybe he either a) puts the best lineup out there to get the tip (in Rak's case, he was the jumper, so maybe he's the best at it - not sure if Fab jumped the prior year); b) puts the new guy out there to get him used to banging around a bit; and/or c) reduces risk in someone picking up an immediate foul in the scramble for the jump ball. Granted, this isn't lacrosse with a huge battle for loose balls, but its a low risk move with a low % reward.

Then after the tip, the carrot kicks in of how long can you last before messing up and getting pulled.

 

[RF2044]

Jb made a concientiious decision to change his substitution pattern right after they won the olympics. He came back and said that they were playing the big stars approximating 20 minutes and they wer preoducting the same if they were in the game for 30+ minutes. He noticed that if the top players knew they were in the game for 20 to 25 minutes , they would make sure that they produced during that time frame. He started to do that with the SU players. Tried to get them to produce at a higher level during a fewer number of minutes. (This respnose does not relate to putting in a starter for 2 to 3 minutes).

Agreed.

I think there are four factors: first, we have better quality depth--top to bottom--than we've had in a long time. Our last two guys on the bench [scholarship players] were Baye and MCW--that's pretty impressive. Now, we might not have had the star power at the top of the lineup that we've had in past years [you could certainly make the case that Dion was a star, but I'd say overall this past year's team lacked a transcendent talent], but top to bottom it was probably our best team ever. So when you've got a talent, you have the option of expanding the rotation. Also, when you've got an expanded rotation you have better practices. When you only have 6 quality guys, then your players have to be iron men out of necessity because that's what you need to do to win games. When you've got 10 guys of comparable ability vying for playing time, imagine how competitive the practices were last year. And when you practice harder, it often translates into improved play on the court.

Second, JB wasn't locked into having to play a small rotation if someone had an off day. In the past--using the aforementioned example where we had a 6 or 7 player rotation--if a key starter wasn't performing well, JB had no choice but to leave him in because there was nobody else behind them. Fast forward to last year. If a key player [for example, Scoop or Rak or Fab] were playing poorly, JB didn't hesitate to yank them because the players behind them are just as good. I can't even count the number of games we've lost over the years where we were competitive, but a key player would have a bad game that would sink us. Now, JB doesn't hesitate to yank Scoop or Brandon or Kris or whoever because he's got Dion and MCW and CJ and Dirty waiting in the wings, all of whom are capable performers.

Three, think about what's happened in the past two years: we've had McD's all american centers playing token minutes. There were many years where a guy like Rak would have been forced to come in and play heavy minutes out of necessity because there weren't quality players who could fill the role otherwise, and JB had no choice.

Four, my opinion only, but I think there has been a cultural shift in the program. We've been ranked #1 two different times in the last three seasons. The players have bought into the system, and for the most part are saying all the right things about the rotation / PT. Sure, there are occasions when players get disgruntled. Dion wasn't happy with his PT as a frosh and acted out, but then turned it around, bought in, and was a HUGE catalyst for the success we had last year. I'm sure that guys like Rak and MCW wanted to play more--but that's an easy issue for the coaches to respond to: work hard and practice harder. Great problem to have.

 

[SoBristol]

Good comments in this thread.

There are 3 separate questions.

1. Why start a frosh center or PF and give a quick hook?

2. Why continue to start BT over Scoop in 2009-10 or Dion this past season?

3. Why did JB break away from his 7.0 mold?

#1 is not easy to break-down and I hope it is not a real trend. Melo was a raw talent, dominant in practice, but out of shape. Plan seemed to be to bring him along, keep him engaged, see what happens if he can stay on the court. Giving Rak 60 seconds at the start of the game -- well, it didn't hurt his development.

#2 BT is a legit starter, solid player. Lots of reasons for JB not to shake up a winning formula once he made BT the starter. Scoop/Dion were good coming off the bench -- could BT do that?

#3 -- The change from JB's 7.0 mold relates to the mix of talent and you could see that change coming. In several ways. You had starters who weren't Wes Johnson or Andy Rautins -- the sort of guys who were so good in 2009-10 you wouldn't want them out for any significant stretch. You had subs last season who could step in and play better than the starters whose place they took (Dion, CJ) or almost as well in stretches (Baye). You had Southerland who certainly had talent, if he could figure out how to play, and who added a shooting dimension that you were not going to get from CJ or Rak. You had Rak who could compete at C when given that chance -- and got that chance.

It is a mistake to assume that JB has a new substitution pattern -- have to see if those 8 & 9 guys can play, or whether the starters are so good they get 35 minutes, or ...

 

[Sgt Cuse]

Good comments in this thread.

There are 3 separate questions.

1. Why start a frosh center or PF and give a quick hook?

2. Why continue to start BT over Scoop in 2009-10 or Dion this past season?

3. Why did JB break away from his 7.0 mold?

#1 is not easy to break-down and I hope it is not a real trend. Melo was a raw talent, dominant in practice, but out of shape. Plan seemed to be to bring him along, keep him engaged, see what happens if he can stay on the court. Giving Rak 60 seconds at the start of the game -- well, it didn't hurt his development.

#2 BT is a legit starter, solid player. Lots of reasons for JB not to shake up a winning formula once he made BT the starter. Scoop/Dion were good coming off the bench -- could BT do that?

#3 -- The change from JB's 7.0 mold relates to the mix of talent and you could see that change coming. In several ways. You had starters who weren't Wes Johnson or Andy Rautins -- the sort of guys who were so good in 2009-10 you wouldn't want them out for any significant stretch. You had subs last season who could step in and play better than the starters whose place they took (Dion, CJ) or almost as well in stretches (Baye). You had Southerland who certainly had talent, if he could figure out how to play, and who added a shooting dimension that you were not going to get from CJ or Rak. You had Rak who could compete at C when given that chance -- and got that chance.

It is a mistake to assume that JB has a new substitution pattern -- have to see if those 8 & 9 guys can play, or whether the starters are so good they get 35 minutes, or ...

1. I like that JB was able to do that. I think it should be situational, depending on the players on the squad at the time. But giving highly recruited players time early in their career is great. I think we will see it again in the upcoming year. DC2 will get the start, as will Rak. I think DC2 will earn his minutes. I'm not so sure of Rak at the PF. Those may still be undeserved minutes. I hope Rak improves but right now the best lineup would be with Dirty and CJ playing forwards.
Another, kind of unrelated reason I liked the move is it skewed the bench scoring stats in favor of SU on a regular basis.

2. BT could certainly have come off the bench. I think BT got a little lucky in that the people at his position at the time had some attitude/off court problems. Remember Scoop back in the early days was coming off the uncle stuff. And Dion was coming off almost leaving. I think JB laid out exactly what in would be like for Dion to return, kind of a take it or leave it situation. I think JB and the recruits (MCW + Cooney) all expected Dion and/or Scoop to leave.

3. It may be a mistake to think the deep rotations will continue. But I do think it shows JB has changed. It showed he can do it, somewhat. And with the positive results you have to think he will continue to do it. He is certainly departing from the old use the anointed top 5 as much as possible. I think if you put the current JB in charge of the teams he had in the past you would now see a different substitution pattern.

 

[RF2044]

3. It may be a mistake to think the deep rotations will continue. But I do think it shows JB has changed. It showed he can do it, somewhat. And with the positive results you have to think he will continue to do it. He is certainly departing from the old use the anointed top 5 as much as possible. I think if you put the current JB in charge of the teams he had in the past you would now see a different substitution pattern.

I don't see how we don't have a consistent 8 player rotation next year.

Guards--BT, MCW, Cooney
Forwards--Rak, CJ, James
Centers--Coleman, Baye

The 9th guy is a highly recruited forward [Grant] who will probably play MCW-type minutes next year behind a trio of experienced forwards. He'll get his feet wet and be ready to play a more prominent role starting when he's a sophomore.

If a couple of things fall into place [i.e., Rak / MCW making the sophomore "jump," CJ and BT emerging as consistent double figure scorers, etc.], next year's team could be loaded. Lots of depth, solid shooting, flexibility with guys capable of playing multiple positions, and tons of size.

 

[SoBristol]

I don't know about much of that, Sgt Cuse.
Quick 1 minute hook with a starter -- if that was a good idea, you might find another coach out there who did it. It was understandable with Fab. With Rak, it was a unique approach that I don't want to see again real soon.
BT having the confidence and moxie of Scoop or Dion to accept not starting and not lose effectiveness? Maybe -- but you have to admit there is room to doubt.
As to JB changing, the evidence is mixed. The historians will find some seasons, a decade or two back, when he played 8 or 9 guys because his team had unusual depth. Other seasons, when he went with 7 (or even 6 in the Donte Greene year), the mix of players (real good starters, big drop off after the first couple of subs) was a big factor in how those minutes were distributed.