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[QUOTE="Waltdods, post: 2569308, member: 2932"]
He definitely might! Or he might average 14 points on 42 percent shooting and see his stock tumble. Or he might get hurt.

What I am saying is that, ex ante, there is no reason to expect that your lot is going to be improved by staying. That doesn’t mean that some people won’t be better off - some will. And some will be worse off. We know this because it’s what happens.

So we are in partial agreement here. I agree that staying probably won’t leave a player worse off. I submit it probably won’t help him either. The next point I am making is that given that reality the right move is often going to be to leave because the downside risk (injury, losing a year of pay for play) is higher than the upside risk.

I do think there are good non- economic reasons to stay - college is more fun than real life for many people, even when that real life is the nba. And I suppose there is some value in the degree, though I’m skeptical of this since the schools ain’t going anywhere.
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