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[QUOTE="jncuse, post: 1679163, member: 1969"]
It depends in large part on what the people on the outside do.    As teams outside of the bubble are weak,  I'm not sure many move in with just one win.   It will take at least 2 wins for those schools.    If Monmouth / San Diego St / Arkansas St take care of business...  there may be a lack of push from the bottom, such that only say 2 of the current teams "in" do not get invited.

And the last 10 teams in teams are fairly bunched -- who knows how the committee has them ranked.  Not every one of them is going to win their first game.    In another thread I brought up the example of Oregon St.

Say we are slightly ahead of Oregon St on the in side per the committee.   We lose to Pitt.  Oregon St beats a mediocore Arizona St team but loses to Cal.  Do they jump us by beating a mediocore ASU team?

As JDubs said, CHALK really matters this week.    When a team like Michigan, St, Bonvanture, Oregon St, face thier first better team this week they have to lose.  Same for teams on the outside.

If we lose and miss we have no one to blame but ourselves.   But our chances as of now are not 0% in that scenario (but I can't justify in my head that it is close to 50% either)
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