Johns Hopkins Game Preview (3/13, 4pm)

[Powellfan]

The game that most of the lacrosse landscape has had circled on their calendar is upon us, as Dave Pietramala returns to his old stomping grounds. Emotions should be high as Petro returns to the field where he was a legend, both as a player and as a coach. Almost every player on the Blue Jays roster was recruited by Petro and most played under him. Hard to say how these storylines will effect the game on Sunday, but they make for a lot of talking points. Both teams come in with very similar profiles, with tough schedules, shaky defensive play and an uphill battle to the playoffs. This game in particular very much feels like a "loser leaves town" grudge match, as whoever losses will most certainly exit the Top 20. They only share one common opponent, which beat them both pretty badly (UVA). That said at least 'Cuse put up a bit of a fight against the Hoos and brought the game within three before falling apart in the second half.

Both offenses look a lot like each other - very shallow on depth and very reliant on their top two players. So far this year Dordvic and Curry have been more consistent than Epstein and DeSimone, scoring a combined 43 points to 36 in one less game. Both teams are light on dodging threats and rely on heavy outside shooting. Neither team looks like its getting much production from their second line midfields - Tyler Cordes is the only player outside the top 6 on either team with more than three points. I imagine that Kennedy will draw DeSimone and Caccomo will get Epstein. What the Orange must not do is slide early and create needless offense for the Blue Jays. Im sure Hopkins fans are saying the same thing about their defense right now. Hopkins hasn't been getting much production out of their third attack spot and Brendan Grimes was out last week against UVA. Garret Degnon, the hard shooting middie filled in but didn't produce much. Syracuse's short sticks might matchup well with the Jay's midfield as they are all pretty much on the smaller size. If Degnon stays at attack, SU should pole Jacob Angelus.

None of the potential goalies in this matchup are having great seasons as none is over that magical 50% threshold. Hopkins (like Syracuse) hasn't done a great job of covering the other teams star player. The other big storyline is face-offs, Hopkins has been without their number one, Matt Nawreski, all year and struggled mightily with Petey LaSalla last week. Nawreski I think has been dressed the last few weeks but hasn't seen any playing time. Will he be healthy for this game? He was at 56% last year. The last time these two teams played, he won only 3-12 and Syracuse won 18-28 draws on the day. Tyler Dunn has filled in mostly this year and won 53% of his draws. The Orange showed some life on the wings against Hobart (see Max Rosa). Hopkins seems to be struggling with groundballs, averaging just 32 a game. Syracuse is averaging 37. One thing SU will definitely have to do is limit penalties as their man-down defense looked atrocious against Hobart. Hopkins doesn't foul much, they have just given up just 10 man ups all year. Syracuse has given up an absurd 23. Teams are converting at over 50% against them, and Hopkins is scoring on 40% of their man-ups. Not a good combination for the Orange.

This should make for a pretty close game as I think both teams are pretty even across the board. SU looks to have the edge on face-offs but that might be nullified if they can't take care of the ball. That said Hopkins has struggled themselves with turnovers, averaging 17 a game to Syracuse's 15. Will Hopkins throw a zone defense at the Orange? Syracuse has to be prepared for it. Hopkins is also looking shaky once again on the clear, doing it just 81% of the time (SU is at 87%). This very much has the feel of a playoff game as both teams have little margin for error with such challenging schedules. Hopefully despite all the distractions this week, SU can focus and pull out a much needed victory.

 

[fieldystick]

This should make for a pretty close game as I think both teams are pretty even across the board... This very much has the feel of a playoff game as both teams have little margin for error with such challenging schedules. Hopefully despite all the distractions this week, SU can focus and pull out a much needed victory.

Neither of our teams are anywhere near where our fans expect to be, but my feeling is that neither of us is as overwhelmingly terrible as some segments of the lacrosse media/fans want to make us out to be. Hopkins not ranked in the media poll right now? With all three of our losses to top ~10 teams... and 6 spots behind Jacksonville, who we actually did win against.

I mean, I don't really care. The media poll is pretty meaningless in terms of making the NCAA tournament/whatever, but the media does have the ability to push the narratives that they want and then those narratives stick whether they are true or not. Did you know that the ACC last season was god's gift to lacrosse and the Big Ten was probably not the second best conference even? Sure would have thought so if you listened to an ESPN broadcast!

Bottom line: it's easy to overhype a game in the first half of the season as a "must win," but I think this is it. I'd give the winner a pretty decent chance at finish at/above .500 and make the NCAA tournament. The loser is in big trouble.

 

[Bigmancuse]

Who’s going?

 

[Bill Orange]

Who’s going?

Raises hand.

 

[MD Cuse Fan]

Who’s going?

I'm like 50/50 right now.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Grimes has a broken hand/wrist, he won't be playing Sunday.

 

[wgdsr]

Neither of our teams are anywhere near where our fans expect to be, but my feeling is that neither of us is as overwhelmingly terrible as some segments of the lacrosse media/fans want to make us out to be. Hopkins not ranked in the media poll right now? With all three of our losses to top ~10 teams... and 6 spots behind Jacksonville, who we actually did win against.

I mean, I don't really care. The media poll is pretty meaningless in terms of making the NCAA tournament/whatever, but the media does have the ability to push the narratives that they want and then those narratives stick whether they are true or not. Did you know that the ACC last season was god's gift to lacrosse and the Big Ten was probably not the second best conference even? Sure would have thought so if you listened to an ESPN broadcast!

Bottom line: it's easy to overhype a game in the first half of the season as a "must win," but I think this is it. I'd give the winner a pretty decent chance at finish at/above .500 and make the NCAA tournament. The loser is in big trouble.

hey fieldy... do you have any data (i know you track some things) that says anything but the top rpi teams landed the at large spots in 17, 18 and 19? that's my impression and recollection tho cloudy on dates. if true, the polls and media not mattering doesn't come with any caveats.

and b1g fans nationwide embrace the "we have the best media contract and will destroy other conferences for decades in sports" mantra. you have the b1g network to tune in to b1g hyperbole. hopkins just gets to swim in both worlds, but you can't knock espn for doing what everyone else does... hype their dance card.

 

[Cuse All-In]

The game that most of the lacrosse landscape has had circled on their calendar is upon us, as Dave Pietramala returns to his old stomping grounds. Emotions should be high as Petro returns to the field where he was a legend, both as a player and as a coach. Almost every player on the Blue Jays roster was recruited by Petro and most played under him. Hard to say how these storylines will effect the game on Sunday, but they make for a lot of talking points. Both teams come in with very similar profiles, with tough schedules, shaky defensive play and an uphill battle to the playoffs. This game in particular very much feels like a "loser leaves town" grudge match, as whoever losses will most certainly exit the Top 20. They only share one common opponent, which beat them both pretty badly (UVA). That said at least 'Cuse put up a bit of a fight against the Hoos and brought the game within three before falling apart in the second half.

Both offenses look a lot like each other - very shallow on depth and very reliant on their top two players. So far this year Dordvic and Curry have been more consistent than Epstein and DeSimone, scoring a combined 43 points to 36 in one less game. Both teams are light on dodging threats and rely on heavy outside shooting. Neither team looks like its getting much production from their second line midfields - Tyler Cordes is the only player outside the top 6 on either team with more than three points. I imagine that Kennedy will draw DeSimone and Caccomo will get Epstein. What the Orange must not do is slide early and create needless offense for the Blue Jays. Im sure Hopkins fans are saying the same thing about their defense right now. Hopkins hasn't been getting much production out of their third attack spot and Brendan Grimes was out last week against UVA. Garret Degnon, the hard shooting middie filled in but didn't produce much. Syracuse's short sticks might matchup well with the Jay's midfield as they are all pretty much on the smaller size. If Degnon stays at attack, SU should pole Jacob Angelus.

None of the potential goalies in this matchup are having great seasons as none is over that magical 50% threshold. Hopkins (like Syracuse) hasn't done a great job of covering the other teams star player. The other big storyline is face-offs, Hopkins has been without their number one, Matt Nawreski, all year and struggled mightily with Petey LaSalla last week. Nawreski I think has been dressed the last few weeks but hasn't seen any playing time. Will he be healthy for this game? He was at 56% last year. The last time these two teams played, he won only 3-12 and Syracuse won 18-28 draws on the day. Tyler Dunn has filled in mostly this year and won 53% of his draws. The Orange showed some life on the wings against Hobart (see Max Rosa). Hopkins seems to be struggling with groundballs, averaging just 32 a game. Syracuse is averaging 37. One thing SU will definitely have to do is limit penalties as their man-down defense looked atrocious against Hobart. Hopkins doesn't foul much, they have just given up just 10 man ups all year. Syracuse has given up an absurd 23. Teams are converting at over 50% against them, and Hopkins is scoring on 40% of their man-ups. Not a good combination for the Orange.

This should make for a pretty close game as I think both teams are pretty even across the board. SU looks to have the edge on face-offs but that might be nullified if they can't take care of the ball. That said Hopkins has struggled themselves with turnovers, averaging 17 a game to Syracuse's 15. Will Hopkins throw a zone defense at the Orange? Syracuse has to be prepared for it. Hopkins is also looking shaky once again on the clear, doing it just 81% of the time (SU is at 87%). This very much has the feel of a playoff game as both teams have little margin for error with such challenging schedules. Hopefully despite all the distractions this week, SU can focus and pull out a much needed victory.

It's debatable if this game is a season-ender for Cuse. Going 2-4 would be ugly indeed but even if we go 3-3 with a win over Hop, we could very well go 1-4 against the ACC later (maybe beat UNC) and lose to Cornell which would render the Hop result meaningless. My guess is the players are really feeling the pressure right now and the hype around this game doesn't help.
Sorry - don't want to be a downer here. Just looking at the possibilities. I would love to see Gait and Petro get this team on track and peak later in the season!

 

[MD Cuse Fan]

Grimes has a broken hand/wrist, he won't be playing Sunday.

Did he get injured this past weekend, I couldn't recall if I saw him out there during the parts of the game I was watching? Looking at their box scores he had 3 goals against Georgetown but hasn't scored since then. Also I wonder what's going on with Fernandez. Obviously was hurt and missed all of last year but is it the same injury that's still keeping him out this year. Either way feel bad for him he can't seem to stay healthy.

 

[Powellfan]

It's debatable if this game is a season-ender for Cuse. Going 2-4 would be ugly indeed but even if we go 3-3 with a win over Hop, we could very well go 1-4 against the ACC later (maybe beat UNC) and lose to Cornell which would render the Hop result meaningless. My guess is the players are really feeling the pressure right now and the hype around this game doesn't help.
Sorry - don't want to be a downer here. Just looking at the possibilities. I would love to see Gait and Petro get this team on track and peak later in the season!

Before the season, I think the path to the playoffs that made the most sense was losing all six ACC games as well as the Maryland game, but winning all other out of conference games to finish at 7-7. Not sure that would have been enough to make the playoffs, especially with an ugly 0fer in conference, but it seemed like the best shot.

Now that the season has started I feel like some conference games look a little bit more winnable, given that UNC still hasn't quite figured out its midfield and its defense is really struggling, and Notre Dame is struggling at face-offs. I would still rank Syracuse as underdogs in those games but they seem more winnable than before the season started. That said Cornell looks like a game that SU will be the underdog in, which I didn't think would be the case before the season started.

If SU losses to Hopkins this weekend, that leaves them at 2-4. I'd say they would be underdogs in six of their last eight. Give them wins against Albany and Stony Brook (certainly no sure things, especially since both games are on the road), and they'd still need to split their remaining six games against a really tough gauntlet. At 4-4, they'd need to find three wins against Notre Dame (x2), UVA, UNC, Duke and Cornell. Finish .500 with three wins against those teams and I think that's a really good tournament resume, but those would be three really tough wins. With a Hopkins win, and presumed (fingers crossed) wins over SB and Albany, you would still need two, which also doesn't make things much easier.

 

[nyclax]

Did he get injured this past weekend, I couldn't recall if I saw him out there during the parts of the game I was watching? Looking at their box scores he had 3 goals against Georgetown but hasn't scored since then. Also I wonder what's going on with Fernandez. Obviously was hurt and missed all of last year but is it the same injury that's still keeping him out this year. Either way feel bad for him he can't seem to stay healthy.

I have no inside info but following along with the Hopkins thread on FanLax, Grimes didn't play against Loyola due to a concussion, came back for the UNC game but didn't score, then was out again vs. UVA due to a broken hand or wrist. He's not expected back soon.

Fernandez, I saw on Instagram had a meniscus cleanup, so it appears he suffered a setback returning from the ACL. No clue what his status is but Hopkins fans seem to think he'll be back at some point.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Did he get injured this past weekend, I couldn't recall if I saw him out there during the parts of the game I was watching? Looking at their box scores he had 3 goals against Georgetown but hasn't scored since then. Also I wonder what's going on with Fernandez. Obviously was hurt and missed all of last year but is it the same injury that's still keeping him out this year. Either way feel bad for him he can't seem to stay healthy.

He was hurt in practice last week, he didnt play at all versus UVA and is probably out for most of the year. Hurts Hop significantly as they are short of talented shooters and really don't have a third attackmen to take his spot as Degnon didn't exactly look comfortable there against UVA. Fernandez reaggravated his knee or had a new setback but he's out again with his return being undetermined.

 

[ivorytower]

Not the start hoped for but also not unexpected .Walking tightrope without a safety harness, JHU at Homewood is a tossup as will be SB away, be a underdog in every other game other than Albany..Wont be 5 acc teams in playoffs. Every game important but current panorama provides wider perspective. nm

 

[fieldystick]

hey fieldy... do you have any data (i know you track some things) that says anything but the top rpi teams landed the at large spots in 17, 18 and 19? that's my impression and recollection tho cloudy on dates. if true, the polls and media not mattering doesn't come with any caveats.

Got it for 17-19 and 21.

2017:
RPI / Team / NCAA status
2 / Syracuse / In (#2 seed)
4 / Notre Dame / In (#4 seed)
5 / Penn State / In (#7 seed)
6 / Ohio State / In (#3 seed)
7 / Johns Hopkins / In (#6 seed)
8 / Denver / In (#5 seed)
9 / Duke / In
10 / North Carolina-Chapel Hill / In
- apparent cut line -
12 / Rutgers / Out
14 / Army / Out
15 / Hofstra / Out
16 / Villanova / Out

RPIs 1/3/11/13 were AQs.

2017 source: http://s3.amazonaws.com/ncaa/files/rpiarchive/archive/selection rpi 2017.pdf


-


2018:
RPI / Team / NCAA Status
1 / Maryland-College Park / In (#1 seed)
4 / Notre Dame / In (#7 seed)
5 / Duke / In (#4 seed)
6 / Yale / In (#3 seed)
8 / Denver / In
10 / Syracuse / In (#8 seed)
11 / Virginia / In
12 / Villanova / In
- apparent cut line -
14 / Pennsylvania / Out
15 / Rutgers / Out
16 / Bucknell / Out
17 / Navy / Out
18 / Ohio State / Out

RPIs 2/3/7/9/13 were AQs.

2018 source: http://s3.amazonaws.com/ncaa/files/rpiarchive/archive/rpi 2018selections.pdf


-

2019:
2 / Virginia / In (#3 seed)
4 / Duke / In (#2 seed)
5 / Yale / In (#5 seed)
7 / Loyola / In (#8 seed)
8 / Johns Hopkins / In
9 / Notre Dame / In (#7 seed)
10 / Syracuse / In
11 / Maryland-College Park / In
- apparent cut line -
12 / Cornell / Out
13 / Denver / Out
14 / Ohio State / Out
17 / Villanova / Out
18 / North Carolina-Chapel Hill / Out

RPIs 1/3/6/15/16 were AQs.

2019 source: http://s3.amazonaws.com/ncaa/files/rpiarchive/archive/2019selectionsrpi.pdf

-

2021:

I'd remove Rutgers from this discussion because Big Ten RPIs were disconnected from the reality of the rest of D1. UMCP got the AQ and none of the other Big Ten teams were even at-large eligible, so it's really only Rutgers that skews things.

1 / North Carolina-Chapel Hill / In (#1 seed)
2 / Duke / In (#2 seed)
3 / Virginia / In (#4 seed)
4 / Notre Dame / In (#6 seed)
5 / Syracuse / In
9 / Army / Out
10 / Denver / In (#7 seed)
14 / Loyola / In
18 / Delaware / Out
19 / Navy / Out
22 / Villanova / Out
("23" / Rutgers / In)

RPIs 6/7/11/13/15/16/17/20 were AQs.
RPI 8 (Brown) and RPI 12 ( Marist) were small sample sizes and not at-large eligible.

Many of you who followed my posts around selection Sunday last year will remember that I had Army as the last team in instead of Loyola, which is why I have them bolded above. If that had been the case, it would have been a perfect "apparent cut line" situation like 2017-19 was - again, ignoring Rutgers/Big Ten weirdness.

I can't find the 2021 selection RPIs on the NCAA's website, but these are from my final 2021 bracketology post, and I'm reasonably sure that they are correct.

-

Overall, I'd say that your point about straight RPI being the predictor for the 8 at-large selections is true. I do not think it's a 1:1 predictor, but the correlation is extremely high. I'd say .90+ correlation range.

 

[wgdsr]

Got it for 17-19 and 21.

2017:
RPI / Team / NCAA status
2 / Syracuse / In (#2 seed)
4 / Notre Dame / In (#4 seed)
5 / Penn State / In (#7 seed)
6 / Ohio State / In (#3 seed)
7 / Johns Hopkins / In (#6 seed)
8 / Denver / In (#5 seed)
9 / Duke / In
10 / North Carolina-Chapel Hill / In
- apparent cut line -
12 / Rutgers / Out
14 / Army / Out
15 / Hofstra / Out
16 / Villanova / Out

RPIs 1/3/11/13 were AQs.

2017 source: http://s3.amazonaws.com/ncaa/files/rpiarchive/archive/selection rpi 2017.pdf


-


2018:
RPI / Team / NCAA Status
1 / Maryland-College Park / In (#1 seed)
4 / Notre Dame / In (#7 seed)
5 / Duke / In (#4 seed)
6 / Yale / In (#3 seed)
8 / Denver / In
10 / Syracuse / In (#8 seed)
11 / Virginia / In
12 / Villanova / In
- apparent cut line -
14 / Pennsylvania / Out
15 / Rutgers / Out
16 / Bucknell / Out
17 / Navy / Out
18 / Ohio State / Out

RPIs 2/3/7/9/13 were AQs.

2018 source: http://s3.amazonaws.com/ncaa/files/rpiarchive/archive/rpi 2018selections.pdf


-

2019:
2 / Virginia / In (#3 seed)
4 / Duke / In (#2 seed)
5 / Yale / In (#5 seed)
7 / Loyola / In (#8 seed)
8 / Johns Hopkins / In
9 / Notre Dame / In (#7 seed)
10 / Syracuse / In
11 / Maryland-College Park / In
- apparent cut line -
12 / Cornell / Out
13 / Denver / Out
14 / Ohio State / Out
17 / Villanova / Out
18 / North Carolina-Chapel Hill / Out

RPIs 1/3/6/15/16 were AQs.

2019 source: http://s3.amazonaws.com/ncaa/files/rpiarchive/archive/2019selectionsrpi.pdf

-

2021:

I'd remove Rutgers from this discussion because Big Ten RPIs were disconnected from the reality of the rest of D1. UMCP got the AQ and none of the other Big Ten teams were even at-large eligible, so it's really only Rutgers that skews things.

1 / North Carolina-Chapel Hill / In (#1 seed)
2 / Duke / In (#2 seed)
3 / Virginia / In (#4 seed)
4 / Notre Dame / In (#6 seed)
5 / Syracuse / In
9 / Army / Out
10 / Denver / In (#7 seed)
14 / Loyola / In
18 / Delaware / Out
19 / Navy / Out
22 / Villanova / Out
("23" / Rutgers / In)

RPIs 6/7/11/13/15/16/17/20 were AQs.
RPI 8 (Brown) and RPI 12 ( Marist) were small sample sizes and not at-large eligible.

Many of you who followed my posts around selection Sunday last year will remember that I had Army as the last team in instead of Loyola, which is why I have them bolded above. If that had been the case, it would have been a perfect "apparent cut line" situation like 2017-19 was - again, ignoring Rutgers/Big Ten weirdness.

I can't find the 2021 selection RPIs on the NCAA's website, but these are from my final 2021 bracketology post, and I'm reasonably sure that they are correct.

-

Overall, I'd say that your point about straight RPI being the predictor for the 8 at-large selections is true. I do not think it's a 1:1 predictor, but the correlation is extremely high. I'd say .90+ correlation range.

thanks a bunch.
well, it looks like it's 100% and 2021 as a covid/small ooc play year is the outlier. for probably good reason, or at least defensible. the question is, do we go back to "normal"? i'd guess we do.

couple things... a team's own rpi is not listed as a primary or even secondary consideration in selection criteria. but yet... in interviews it started creeping into the discussion when a committee member was interviewed about "why"? always confusing to begin with with just guidelines.

anyway, in 2019 the dam was broke about what i was seeing by 2017-2019 (maybe 2016?)... 2019 interview with the chair. how did you make selections (open ended)? "we put the top rpis on the board and then looked to see if anything was unusual". they'd already pre-selected with bias!!! nothing but a huge issue would change what they'd already been doing. and for a couple years before. it was confirmed.

they throw 12 rpi numbers on the board and then order pizza. watch rpi. polls and quint and carc don't matter.

 

[nyclax]

couple things... a team's own rpi is not listed as a primary or even secondary consideration in selection criteria. but yet... in interviews it started creeping into the discussion when a committee member was interviewed about "why"? always confusing to begin with with just guidelines.

Where are you getting that? "Results of the RPI" is clearly on every list of tournament selection criteria:

Road to the Championships | NCAA.com

Division I | Division II | Division III DIVISION I MEN'S LACROSSE CHAMPIONSHIP National Participation There are 73 NCAA member institutions that sponsor Division I Men’s Lacrosse teams and are eligible to compete in the National Championship.

www.ncaa.com

How the 16 teams are selected for the men’s lacrosse tournament

With just a little less than a month left in the season (and plenty of lacrosse left to play), the NCAA is set to release the DI men’s lacrosse committee’s rankings Saturday. But, how does the committee come up with these rankings, and how are teams selected to compete in the championship...

www.ncaa.com

How Is the NCAA DI Men's Lacrosse Bracket Selected?

(Inside Lacrosse Photo: Jaclyn Borowski) It’s a question that we can sometimes take for granted and assume everyone knows the answer:

www.insidelacrosse.com

Also found this official manual for the women's tournament, in which "Comprehensive evaluation of the Rating Percentage Index (RPI)" is literally the first thing listed under Primary Criteria:

https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/championships/sports/lacrosse/d1/women/2020-21D1WLA_MANUALPreChamps.pdf

Not to mention the NCAA begins releasing its weekly RPI top 10 ranking in April, the only reason to do that is to signal that it's going to matter come selection time.

 

[wgdsr]

Where are you getting that? "Results of the RPI" is clearly on every list of tournament selection criteria:

Road to the Championships | NCAA.com

Division I | Division II | Division III DIVISION I MEN'S LACROSSE CHAMPIONSHIP National Participation There are 73 NCAA member institutions that sponsor Division I Men’s Lacrosse teams and are eligible to compete in the National Championship.

www.ncaa.com

How the 16 teams are selected for the men’s lacrosse tournament

With just a little less than a month left in the season (and plenty of lacrosse left to play), the NCAA is set to release the DI men’s lacrosse committee’s rankings Saturday. But, how does the committee come up with these rankings, and how are teams selected to compete in the championship...

www.ncaa.com

How Is the NCAA DI Men's Lacrosse Bracket Selected?

(Inside Lacrosse Photo: Jaclyn Borowski) It’s a question that we can sometimes take for granted and assume everyone knows the answer:

www.insidelacrosse.com

Also found this official manual for the women's tournament, in which "Comprehensive evaluation of the Rating Percentage Index (RPI)" is literally the first thing listed under Primary Criteria:

https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/championships/sports/lacrosse/d1/women/2020-21D1WLA_MANUALPreChamps.pdf

Not to mention the NCAA begins releasing its weekly RPI top 10 ranking in April, the only reason to do that is to signal that it's going to matter come selection time.

if you read the first link closely, it defines what results of the rpi means.
the dashes are the formulas for what counts. or is supposed to. w's and l's vs the rpi's of your opponents. not your own rpi. and that's how it is written in the rulebook (though structured better for easier reading). literally defining how they should use it.

what do they do instead vs all those fancy criteria? use teams' own straight rpi. which makes the 2nd link bunk. they don't do a deep dive on anything. watch rpi.

i don't have any idea how they do the women.

at least as opposed to prior to 2016 or 17, coaches should know now how they're going to be evaluated and what the cut line is.

 

[JeremyCuse]

The game that most of the lacrosse landscape has had circled on their calendar is upon us, as Dave Pietramala returns to his old stomping grounds. Emotions should be high as Petro returns to the field where he was a legend, both as a player and as a coach. Almost every player on the Blue Jays roster was recruited by Petro and most played under him. Hard to say how these storylines will effect the game on Sunday, but they make for a lot of talking points. Both teams come in with very similar profiles, with tough schedules, shaky defensive play and an uphill battle to the playoffs. This game in particular very much feels like a "loser leaves town" grudge match, as whoever losses will most certainly exit the Top 20. They only share one common opponent, which beat them both pretty badly (UVA). That said at least 'Cuse put up a bit of a fight against the Hoos and brought the game within three before falling apart in the second half.

Both offenses look a lot like each other - very shallow on depth and very reliant on their top two players. So far this year Dordvic and Curry have been more consistent than Epstein and DeSimone, scoring a combined 43 points to 36 in one less game. Both teams are light on dodging threats and rely on heavy outside shooting. Neither team looks like its getting much production from their second line midfields - Tyler Cordes is the only player outside the top 6 on either team with more than three points. I imagine that Kennedy will draw DeSimone and Caccomo will get Epstein. What the Orange must not do is slide early and create needless offense for the Blue Jays. Im sure Hopkins fans are saying the same thing about their defense right now. Hopkins hasn't been getting much production out of their third attack spot and Brendan Grimes was out last week against UVA. Garret Degnon, the hard shooting middie filled in but didn't produce much. Syracuse's short sticks might matchup well with the Jay's midfield as they are all pretty much on the smaller size. If Degnon stays at attack, SU should pole Jacob Angelus.

None of the potential goalies in this matchup are having great seasons as none is over that magical 50% threshold. Hopkins (like Syracuse) hasn't done a great job of covering the other teams star player. The other big storyline is face-offs, Hopkins has been without their number one, Matt Nawreski, all year and struggled mightily with Petey LaSalla last week. Nawreski I think has been dressed the last few weeks but hasn't seen any playing time. Will he be healthy for this game? He was at 56% last year. The last time these two teams played, he won only 3-12 and Syracuse won 18-28 draws on the day. Tyler Dunn has filled in mostly this year and won 53% of his draws. The Orange showed some life on the wings against Hobart (see Max Rosa). Hopkins seems to be struggling with groundballs, averaging just 32 a game. Syracuse is averaging 37. One thing SU will definitely have to do is limit penalties as their man-down defense looked atrocious against Hobart. Hopkins doesn't foul much, they have just given up just 10 man ups all year. Syracuse has given up an absurd 23. Teams are converting at over 50% against them, and Hopkins is scoring on 40% of their man-ups. Not a good combination for the Orange.

This should make for a pretty close game as I think both teams are pretty even across the board. SU looks to have the edge on face-offs but that might be nullified if they can't take care of the ball. That said Hopkins has struggled themselves with turnovers, averaging 17 a game to Syracuse's 15. Will Hopkins throw a zone defense at the Orange? Syracuse has to be prepared for it. Hopkins is also looking shaky once again on the clear, doing it just 81% of the time (SU is at 87%). This very much has the feel of a playoff game as both teams have little margin for error with such challenging schedules. Hopefully despite all the distractions this week, SU can focus and pull out a much needed victory.

Not a ton more to add to this, as you noted two pretty evenly matched teams, both with some talented players but major flaws as well. I have watched a couple of Hops games, not a bad team by any stretch but don't have near the depth or elite talent level they had in Petro's heyday. With both teams struggling not sure the Petro angle will be as big as the media played it up in the pre-season. Perhaps SU gets a slight edge out of it with Petro knowing most of JHU's offense well but even that seems like a reach.

This feels like one of those game where each team will try and keep giving it way to the other unless one can come out and put the hammer down for a quarter which based on the current results of both teams seems unlikely. Hopkins D isn't terrible but as Powell noted they have struggled against star players (sound familiar) and they have struggled late in games with letdowns including X play despite Dunn doing a pretty good job overall in place of Narewski. If Narewski is out again, Hop doesn't have a ton of depth. Prouty has struggled to adjust tot the new rules and has only taken 10 draws, I think Callahan the True Frosh from Victor is the backup at this point but he's only taken 16 draws and lost 10 of them. Penalties will be key as well, sure as hell can't have six again as JHU will pick us apart, wish I had an answer as to how to be better there, I don't.

Epstein is clearly not the same player he was as a frosh before hurting his knee, the burst is gone though he is still a very dangerous shooter. With Grimes out and Mahar hurt and out for the year Hop doesn't really have a solid replacement so Degnon got the nod versus and while he had 2 goals wasn't really a factor. He does have a cannon for a shot though and I assume Murphy will draw the assignment and need to stay with him and on his hands. Epstein and Desimone are a good combo and will likely give us problems. Desimone is the main initiator from the attack position so hard to see Kennedy not drawing this matchup. Coccamo will have his hands full with Epstein and he struggled at times on Sunday against Bart, he better be ready as Epstein is lights out from the wing if open. For my money Keogh is probably the best middie with Angelus not far behind. I think SU will pole Keogh as Angelus is a smaller jitter bug type middie who our SSDMS should have a size and weight advantage on. Hops short on quality depth this year as guys like McDermott and Peshko who came on strong late for the Jays last season have struggled to do much of anything this year. Essentially if you can limit Epstein and Desimone your likely to win similar to Curry and Dordevic for us. Hop is a smaller team then SU has seen 2 of the last 3 weeks in Army and UVA. Most of the O players are under 6 feet and the only real upper level dodger is Desimone and to a lesser extent Epstein who as I noted just doens't have the same burst after his injury but is still a dangerous scorer.

From an SU offensive standpoint I am hopeful this team will spend a majority of the week practicing against a zone as I am sure we will see a ton of it on Sat. Again with Hiltz out this team seems unsure of what it wants to do and as Fetterly noted post-game SU actually passed up several good looks against Hobart's zone as they seem to be looking for a great look versus a good one. The turnovers and sloppy play have to stop, its not like the offense is mostly young guys either when the starters are out, there. They become unwatchable at times and literally turned it over the first 4 or 5 possessions against the zone on Sunday, it was absurd.

From a personnel standpoint it was good to see Tenaglia get some run at attack on Sunday, baby steps in getting some other guys some run. Berkman was much more active on Sunday but its asking a lot for him to play all the minutes at the third attack spot. I have to assume Birtwistle is hurt again which is really to bad I had high hopes for him once he got his feet underneath him. He hasn't played since the 1st quarter of the UVA game so I assume something is up. Cook hasn't been bad per se but he's just not an offensive threat on the 1st midifeld. He has 2 pts the last two games combined and looks lost against the zone. Cordes was finally put out there late against Bart and immediately put a rocket off the cross bar. I know Cook must be balling out in practice but he has nearly as many turnovers (5) as pts this year (7). The talent is there which is the most frustrating aspect but I just don't see him as a starting midfield at this point, it really should be Cordes. Fiorini got some run again on Sunday as well. You wonder what a couple of additional lesser games where he and Corsi and Cordes could get extend run like Holy Cross could do for their confidence and PT against the upper level opponents.

With Hiltz essentially out for the year the offense is what it is, when Curry and Dordevic are both on we have a shot, when one of them isn't were in trouble if both struggle well you get the UVA score. Would like to see Seebold take better care of the ball. He's tied for the team lead with 9 turnovers, which is way way to many. Berkman also has six for a guy whose not exactly handling the ball a ton, not good. Overall the passing needs to be better, fundamentals was a big buzz word the last two games + in the game thread. So many turnovers on simple passes where someone just drops a pass or takes their eye of the pass for a split second or a simple pass to an open teammate is either at his ankles or a foot over his head. Go back and watch the Hobart game and see how many times SU simply threw it away with little pressure, Gait has to crack the whip here.

On Sunday expect McManus on Dordevic and Lyne on Curry. Hop's D has good size and experience especially at close. They have depth at LSM with Jennings and another guy who escapes me I think Smith. Hop for once actually has good depth at SSDM and guys with size (Martin, Lilly etc). They aren't the fastest bunch though so it will be an interesting matchup to say the least. Curious to see if SU bumps Dordevic back to middie for a time again, seemed to give Hobart some issues when we did it but it also really depletes an attack unit that's already light on stars. Getting something out of Tenaglia or Birtwistle if he can get back on the field and get some run at attack could really help open things up and force teams to make tough decisions when Curry and Dordevic and Quinn are on the 1st line. Keys are going to be how we play against the zone, turnovers and can we score when actually going man up. Get 2 out of those three right SU has a good shot to win. SU has slowly started getting some of the younger guys more involved, Corsi and Cordes and others should see some additional run.

All and all the two teams are pretty evenly matched. Goalies are about the same (Hop board not a huge fan of Kirson though), will be interesting to see who starts for SU. As I noted in the beginning this game screams winner to whoever can minimize sloppy play and turnovers. SU getting a week off after the quick turnaround for Army and Bart should hopefully help here. If this were a normal SU team I'd like our chances especially if Narewski is still out, but I find it hard to trust this team right now with turnovers and transition defense. Maybe something will click this week, maybe.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[Powellfan]

Its a shame they aren't posting the interviews they do weekly with the players anymore. They did it for the Holy Cross game but not since.

No questions about Petro? They were asking about this game last week before Hobart but now nothing? At least they noticed the man-up unit needs work.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Its a shame they aren't posting the interviews they do weekly with the players anymore. They did it for the Holy Cross game but not since.

No questions about Petro? They were asking about this game last week before Hobart but now nothing? At least they noticed the man-up unit needs work.

The media questions this year have been bad for the most part save for one guy who has pressed Gait a few times.

 

[Troughin']

Who’s going?

No way. Last time I went to Homewood to see them, they cancelled the season- been blaming myself ever since.

 

[Orangelax]

No way. Last time I went to Homewood to see them, they cancelled the season- been blaming myself ever since.

I was at that game too...maybe it was me.

 

[DoctahLexus]

Some similar sights to last year on this chart. Towards the top in offensive efficiency and towards the bottom on D.

 

[Tangerine]

Battle of two historic teams that have lost their way. Syracuse must rise to the occasion, they must not whimper into defeat, victory is the only option. We will no be relegated to a school of only past success!

Cuse by 7