Hey all - somewhat new here and first post. Sorry if this is in the wrong forum (or rambling and long-winded, but as I stay around I'm sure you'll learn that's my style), but it seemed to somewhat fit with the recruiting theme...
Just curious - why do people seem so convinced Tyus Battle is one-and-done?
Far as I can tell, he isn't showing up anywhere on 2017 OR 2018 mock drafts on any of the traditional sites (nbadraft.net, draftexpress, etc.) and players in his range typically aren't one-and-done. Case in point, case study of the last 5 years from 247 composite rankings of players ranked 21-50 (basically Tyus Battle +/- 15 spots)...
2015 - 4/30 (13.33%) - Syracuse 1/1 (Richardson)
2014 - 2/30 (6.67%) - Syracuse 1/1 (McCullough)
2013 - 1/30 (3.33%) - Syracuse 1/1 (Ennis)
2012 - 0/30 (0.00%) - Syracuse 0/2 (Coleman, Grant)
2011- 1/30 (3.33%) - Syracuse 0/2 (Christmas, MCW - plus Gbinje if you want to count him)
I may have missed one of two people who left early since I was just doing this quickly, but point being over the last 5 years it's only maybe a little over a 5% chance that a player in Battle's range in the rankings goes one-and-done.
Maybe we are overrating the possibilities just because our success rate happens to be a little higher the last 5 years (3/7 = 42.85%).
Not saying it couldn't happen. He's a much better outside shooter than I expected so he definitely has a chance. But let's not forget Ennis and Richardson both played 34+ minutes in seasons that led to a 25-0 start and #1 ranking and a Final Four berth respectively.
To tie it back to 2017 recruiting... The potential loss of Green got me thinking about this because, although it would definitely still sting, it's not like we wouldn't still have the makings of a decent team for next year without him if Battle is back.
PG - Howard
SG - Battle
SF - Moyer, Brisett
PF - Thompson
C - Chukwu, Sidibe (?)
Add Jordan Tucker and 1-2 grad transfers in the backcourt / wing spots and we could still be a team that could make some noise.
In the meantime - damn the boys looked good tonight. 20+ point win over Monmouth is very impressive. Regardless of what does or doesn't happen in 2017 recruiting looks like this year's team could have a really high ceiling so let's not forget to enjoy this too!!!
Just curious - why do people seem so convinced Tyus Battle is one-and-done?
Far as I can tell, he isn't showing up anywhere on 2017 OR 2018 mock drafts on any of the traditional sites (nbadraft.net, draftexpress, etc.) and players in his range typically aren't one-and-done. Case in point, case study of the last 5 years from 247 composite rankings of players ranked 21-50 (basically Tyus Battle +/- 15 spots)...
2015 - 4/30 (13.33%) - Syracuse 1/1 (Richardson)
2014 - 2/30 (6.67%) - Syracuse 1/1 (McCullough)
2013 - 1/30 (3.33%) - Syracuse 1/1 (Ennis)
2012 - 0/30 (0.00%) - Syracuse 0/2 (Coleman, Grant)
2011- 1/30 (3.33%) - Syracuse 0/2 (Christmas, MCW - plus Gbinje if you want to count him)
I may have missed one of two people who left early since I was just doing this quickly, but point being over the last 5 years it's only maybe a little over a 5% chance that a player in Battle's range in the rankings goes one-and-done.
Maybe we are overrating the possibilities just because our success rate happens to be a little higher the last 5 years (3/7 = 42.85%).
Not saying it couldn't happen. He's a much better outside shooter than I expected so he definitely has a chance. But let's not forget Ennis and Richardson both played 34+ minutes in seasons that led to a 25-0 start and #1 ranking and a Final Four berth respectively.
To tie it back to 2017 recruiting... The potential loss of Green got me thinking about this because, although it would definitely still sting, it's not like we wouldn't still have the makings of a decent team for next year without him if Battle is back.
PG - Howard
SG - Battle
SF - Moyer, Brisett
PF - Thompson
C - Chukwu, Sidibe (?)
Add Jordan Tucker and 1-2 grad transfers in the backcourt / wing spots and we could still be a team that could make some noise.
In the meantime - damn the boys looked good tonight. 20+ point win over Monmouth is very impressive. Regardless of what does or doesn't happen in 2017 recruiting looks like this year's team could have a really high ceiling so let's not forget to enjoy this too!!!
