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[QUOTE="Fly Rodder, post: 2355314, member: 2133"]
I don't even pretend to know how his algorithms work or what exactly goes into them, but there's plenty of data to work with.  Freshmen play every season.  They don't need to how a specific freshman is going to play to make projections, just maybe how an average freshman for the position ranked as a certain recruit level has historically played (e.g., freshman who score more than 15 pts a game are rare.  Freshman SFs who are ranked outside the top-20 and score 15 pts a game are even more rare., etc.).  So with some finagling through an algorithm, they can generate a potential stat line based on historical averages.

Outliers happen, but these are general projections built around the "most likely scenario" - not every scenario.  A baseball site I frequent does projections every preseason and presents 5 intervals of projections for each player (20%, 35%, baseline, 65% 80%).  The baselines are aggregated for each team and then those are run through 10,000 "seasons".  So, for example, this season Aaron Judge was projected to have a baseline of 25 HRs, and then "that player" was used for 10,000 simulated seasons.  He never reached 50 HRs in 10,000 seasons.  What he did this season was an absolute outlier based on what data was available, but that doesn't mean it was impossible just [B]really[/B] unexpected.  It ain't perfect, but these projections aren't predictions and not intended to be so.

[URL='https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-difference-between-predictions-and-projections/']Fangraphs has an explanation here.[/URL]
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