kenpom question and observation.

[jordoo]

Just looking at kenpom and I'm not a huge metrics guy but its a good indicator as are many things.

In this 2K classic all the headlining teams have common opponents before hitting MSG. I figured in comparison to each other a numbers rated ranking like kenpom would be interesting even after only 2 games each. All of the 8 games so far have been played against a combination of the same 4 teams.

Syracuse 11: .8930
Texas 15: .8721
Iowa 24: .8428
Cal 62: .7496

Maybe someone who understands the formula better can help us out because I would have thought after the thumping Iowa gave Hampton that they would be higher than us. Is the overall schedule strength what is keeping us ahead of these teams right now? Is the relative rankings of these four undefeated teams against common opponents based mainly off of conference and schedule strength?

I see that the adjusted defense is also better for us than these other 3 and only Iowa has a better adjusted offense and that is slight. For those who know is this the biggest factor in the formula in relation to whom you've already played or is everything prorated because of projected strength of schedule that has yet to happen.

 

[BuffOrange]

Neither. His preseason ranks are basically baseline data for how good you've been the last five years with adjustments for returning players and this year's games. If he just went strictly this year's data after two games the rankings would look silly. As more games are played and a decent sample is taken, that other stuff weighs less and less.

 

[moqui]

I don't know what his exact formula is, but it is essentially offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency (just doing that correlates with his overall rating at .998)

the keys are efficiency and tempo. Syracuse plays at a much slower tempo than the other three; we have nearly 7.5 fewer possession per game than does Iowa, for example. SU scores roughly the same number of points on average, on each possession . . . and gives up much less per possession on fewer possessions.

we play a pretty fast tempo on offense - average possession length is in the top 50 fastest in the nation - but the zone forces opponents to slow it down - average defensive possession is in the bottom quartile. Cal and Iowa play very fast - 1st and 9th in the nation in average offensive possession - so the zone should really bother them.

 

[jordoo]

Neither. His preseason ranks are basically baseline data for how good you've been the last five years with adjustments for returning players and this year's games. If he just went strictly this year's data after two games the rankings would look silly. As more games are played and a decent sample is taken, that other stuff weighs less and less.

Thanks. So what about the adjD and adjO numbers are they act6ually just from the games played this year?

 

[longtimefan]

I don't know what his exact formula is, but it is essentially offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency (just doing that correlates with his overall rating at .998)

the keys are efficiency and tempo. Syracuse plays at a much slower tempo than the other three; we have nearly 7.5 fewer possession per game than does Iowa, for example. SU scores roughly the same number of points on average, on each possession . . . and gives up much less per possession on fewer possessions.

we play a pretty fast tempo on offense - average possession length is in the top 50 fastest in the nation - but the zone forces opponents to slow it down - average defensive possession is in the bottom quartile. Cal and Iowa play very fast - 1st and 9th in the nation in average offensive possession - so the zone should really bother them.

The zone will bother them--if we get back on defense.

 

[longtimefan]

Thanks. So what about the adjD and adjO numbers are they act6ually just from the games played this year?

I think there's a carryover from the stats of the previous 5 seasons.

 

[HoustonCuse]

The zone will bother them--if we get back on defense.

I am positive JB will have that corrected now. Afterall, it is the easiest of all things to correct! We've been very good with this going back as far as I remember and I'm sure he's informed the players after they got embarrassed a few times by lowly Hampton.

 

[jordoo]

I am positive JB will have that corrected now. Afterall, it is the easiest of all things to correct! We've been very good with this going back as far as I remember and I'm sure he's informed the players after they got embarrassed a few times by lowly Hampton.

Its probably the first thing they covered about the Hampton game. I remember how important getting back was in the 03 championship game. There was a lot of talk that KU was going to consistently beat us down the floor before we could set up but it didn't happen really at all except for early in the second half when they made their run.

 

[HoustonCuse]

Its probably the first thing they covered about the Hampton game. I remember how important getting back was in the 03 championship game. There was a lot of talk that Ku was going to consistently beat us down the floor before we could set up but it didn't happen really at all except for early in the second half when they made their run.

Yep I was thinking of exactly that. KU absolutely ran Marquette off the court. It was very scary watching that game knowing a championship would have to go through them, but the zone beat them back down court every time.

 

[jordoo]

Yep I was thinking of exactly that. KU absolutely ran Marquette off the court. It was very scary watching that game knowing a championship would have to go through them, but the zone beat them back down court every time.

Its always talked about when we play a Roy Williams team but I have never seen one of his teams have consistent success against us by beating the zone down the court. Its probably the main reason we have done well against his teams because that's a big part of what he does.