Knick Off Season...

[newmexicuse]

It started with a crazy draft night when their only objective was to clear cap space.

they did a great job getting rid of burks, walker, and Noel. Not only for the cap space, but to clear minutes. They even added some future first rounders in getting that done.

the signing of Brunson was putting that cap space to good use. Jalen lacks superstar or probably even all star level talent, but he is a big upgrade at pg. hartenstein was a solid signing, it gives them a different skill set at the 5 spot. Lastly, they bring back Robinson, who is very good at what he does...if only he good develop a baby hook or a reliable 10 footer.

all of the above probably adds up to a B+ off season.

however, I downgrade them to a B to B- for not getting the murray deal done. They should have easily outbid the price Atlanta paid.

they still need to get a Barrett extension done, though plenty of time for that.

big questions now are:

1. will thibs figure it out. His coaching last season was horrific. He needs to figure out how to get quick and obi at least 25 mpg. He needs to see if reddish is a keeper. Maybe with fewer mediocre veterans on hand he can make that happen. There is no league rule that says randle and obi can’t be on the court together.
2. the elephant in the room is randle. Can he regain all star or at least near all star form or will he be the moody mediocrity we saw last season ?

 

[Madbiker]

Brunson is a really good get for the Knicks. But that move alone won't dramatically move them up in the Eastern Conference pecking order. Now they can get into the 7-10 play in. The overpay for Mitchell Robinson is a perfect example why this team that doesn't make the playoffs is always capped out. Overpaying for mediocre talent.

 

[newmexicuse]

Knicks have not been capped out for quite awhile now. The problem is that until this Brunson get, they never got their primary targets to bite when they had cap space available and they had to settle for second tier guys. Last years use of cap space was a disaster as just one year later they had to attach assets to get rid of Walker, Burks, and Noel who had all been signed. I do not think the Robinson signing was an overpay. You certainly could not go out there and find a comparable replacement player for that $ 15M/yr., especially not a free agent.

I totally agree with your conclusion about where the Knicks wind up.

How do they improve ??

1. Randle needs to step it back up to All-Star level.
2. Barrett needs to take the next step, hopefully to All-Star level.
3. I think the two really talented young players that they have are Quick and Obi. They both need to be given much bigger roles to see what they are really capable of.
4. Thibs needs to coach much better than he did last season.

If everything came together and they stayed healthy, I could see a Top 5 or so finish in their conference. Just saying IF, not predicting that it will play out that way.

 

[jncuse]

they did a great job getting rid of burks, walker, and Noel. Not only for the cap space, but to clear minutes. They even added some future first rounders in getting that done.

To be clear the Knicks did not get draft capital for moving those 3 players -- in fact they actually lost it. Overall 6 second rounders were traded (netting various trades) They also flipped a 2023 Denver first for a 2025 Milwuakee first which not far from a wash -- a minor loss I suppose due to the time value of draft picks. Overall that loss of draft capital to clear space for Brunson is totally justifiable if you believe in him. Some people are mocking it, but people overrate the value of second rounders in my view. (EDIT - the mistake as you noted later in your post, and what does deserve mocking, was last year's free agent signings which in retrospect are hideous)

The Knicks acquired 3 future heavily protected first rounders for trading the 11th pick. So yes they are now +2 in first round picks but they are lesser picks due to protection and deferred 3 picks that will probably be realized in 2025 or 2026, and in the #18-#25 range most likely. On a standalone basis, its a fair trade to me, not an immediate win or loss I think - just a fair trade in my view that is getting unfairly criticized. I think people criticize it because they think the Knicks could have added a young asset now instead of deferring.

Here is the final pick haul for the Knicks in terms of first rounder they acquired. Consider this largely the picks they got for trading #11. (You can change the 2025 Milwaukee pick to the 2023 Denver pick if you want to see exactly what they got for the 11th pick).

 

[newmexicuse]

To be clear the Knicks did not get draft capital for moving those 3 players -- in fact they actually lost it. Overall 6 second rounders were traded (netting various trades) They also flipped a 2023 Denver first for a 2025 Milwuakee first which not far from a wash -- a minor loss I suppose due to the time value of draft picks. Overall that loss of draft capital to clear space for Brunson is totally justifiable if you believe in him. Some people are mocking it, but people overrate the value of second rounders in my view. (EDIT - the mistake as you noted later in your post, and what does deserve mocking, was last year's free agent signings which in retrospect are hideous)

The Knicks acquired 3 future heavily protected first rounders for trading the 11th pick. So yes they are now +2 in first round picks but they are lesser picks due to protection and deferred 3 picks that will probably be realized in 2025 or 2026, and in the #18-#25 range most likely. On a standalone basis, its a fair trade to me, not an immediate win or loss I think - just a fair trade in my view that is getting unfairly criticized. I think people criticize it because they think the Knicks could have added a young asset now instead of deferring.

Here is the final pick haul for the Knicks in terms of first rounder they acquired. Consider this largely the picks they got for trading #11. (You can change the 2025 Milwaukee pick to the 2023 Denver pick if you want to see exactly what they got for the 11th pick).
View attachment 218122

Good post, but the final piece was adding hartenstein with part of the created cap space.

if you look at acquiring brunson and hartenstein and netting two extra number ones, for the cost of those six second rounders, that looks darn good to me.

 

[jncuse]

Good post, but the final piece was adding hartenstein with part of the created cap space.

if you look at acquiring brunson and hartenstein and netting two extra number ones, for the cost of those six second rounders, that looks darn good to me.

I think you might be adding a bit too much sunshine to the sequence of moves. I think the moves overall are fine, but not the same as your ledger in your last sentence.

I sort of view Hartenstein as a stand alone MLE signing who is not really part of the sequence of moves of clearing space (see below) Not a move done by clearing cap space, so I disconnect it from the moves above. Perhaps only semantics to not include it on my end - still an addition by the Knicks and I do like the signing ... I would have been happy with Hartenstein on the Raps (although satisfied with Otto Porter)

1) You can't just add two net first rounders on one side of the ledger, without adding in the cost of getting those two net first rounders on the other side of the ledger. The Knicks traded the far superior draft asset - the 2022 #11, for three inferior draft assets. To analyze that move as the Knicks adding two first rounders on one side, and no cost on the other is a bit flawed. I'm OK with the move itself, but your ledger is not fully capturing what happened.

2) I don't believe Hartenstein was signed with Cap Space, but with the MLE ( but I stand to be corrected on that part) The same MLE they would have had if they had not done all the moves to clear cap space which is why I am not connecting them to the series of moves (semantics maybe, its sitll a postive add for the Knicks)

I think the sequence of moves was as follows.
1) Sign Brunson with cap space
2) Sign Robinson to an amount above his cap hold, bring you back above the cap line and to provide the Knicks with the MLE again (MLE is not available to teams below the cap line)
3) Signing Hartenstein to the MLE

 

[newmexicuse]

I think you might be adding a bit too much sunshine to the sequence of moves. I think the moves overall are fine, but not the same as your ledger in your last sentence.

I sort of view Hartenstein as a stand alone MLE signing who is not really part of the sequence of moves of clearing space (see below) Not a move done by clearing cap space, so I disconnect it from the moves above. Perhaps only semantics to not include it on my end - still an addition by the Knicks and I do like the signing ... I would have been happy with Hartenstein on the Raps (although satisfied with Otto Porter)

1) You can't just add two net first rounders on one side of the ledger, without adding in the cost of getting those two net first rounders on the other side of the ledger. The Knicks traded the far superior draft asset - the 2022 #11, for three inferior draft assets. To analyze that move as the Knicks adding two first rounders on one side, and no cost on the other is a bit flawed. I'm OK with the move itself, but your ledger is not fully capturing what happened.

2) I don't believe Hartenstein was signed with Cap Space, but with the MLE ( but I stand to be corrected on that part) The same MLE they would have had if they had not done all the moves to clear cap space which is why I am not connecting them to the series of moves (semantics maybe, its sitll a postive add for the Knicks)

I think the sequence of moves was as follows.
1) Sign Brunson with cap space
2) Sign Robinson to an amount above his cap hold, bring you back above the cap line and to provide the Knicks with the MLE again (MLE is not available to teams below the cap line)
3) Signing Hartenstein to the MLE

Hartenstein was signed w cap space, the Knicks still have their MLE available. Hartenstein was in fact signed before the Robinson extension.

2024-25 New York Knicks Cap Table

The New York Knicks 2024-25 salary cap table, including salary cap table, including team cap space, player cap hits, incentives, & bonus info.

www.spotrac.com

yes, I agree all first rounders are not equal.

however, if you look at what the Celtics traded for brogden, who is less desirable than Brunson, it is fair to say that being able to sign Brunson wo a trade is easily worth three or four first rounders.

 

[jncuse]

Hartenstein was signed w cap space, the Knicks still have their MLE available. Hartenstein was in fact signed before the Robinson extension.

2024-25 New York Knicks Cap Table

The New York Knicks 2024-25 salary cap table, including salary cap table, including team cap space, player cap hits, incentives, & bonus info.

www.spotrac.com

yes, I agree all first rounders are not equal.

however, if you look at what the Celtics traded for brogden, who is less desirable than Brunson, it is fair to say that being able to sign Brunson wo a trade is easily worth three or four first rounders.

Thanks for correcting me... did not realize they cleared enough cap space to get both under the cap line, and then used Robinson signing to get their MLE exmeption back afterwards Not much left in the MLE market, but might well be able to find a rotation player out there.

The Celtics hardly traded anything for Brogdon in my view. They essentially gave up cap filler and a pick that will likely be in the mid 20's. Unless I am reading the value on Nesmith wrongly, I believe he is just largely cap filler at this point rather than a first rounder with significant potential. It didn't seem like much to me - a mid 20's first and a flyer on a failing, but yet to fully fail prospect.

Brunson is not worth 3 and certainly not 4 first rounders in my view. Dejounte Murray got that and he is a much more valuable asset than Brunson

Brunson is somewhere in between Brogdon and Murray in terms of trade value, perhaps closer to Brogdon than Murray. I do agree he is above Brogdon however,

 

[newmexicuse]

Thanks for correcting me... did not realize they cleared enough cap space to get both under the cap line, and then used Robinson signing to get their MLE exmeption back afterwards Not much left in the MLE market, but might well be able to find a rotation player out there.

The Celtics hardly traded anything for Brogdon in my view. They essentially gave up cap filler and a pick that will likely be in the mid 20's. Unless I am reading the value on Nesmith wrongly, I believe he is just largely cap filler at this point rather than a first rounder with significant potential. It didn't seem like much to me - a mid 20's first and a flyer on a failing, but yet to fully fail prospect.

Brunson is not worth 3 and certainly not 4 first rounders in my view. Dejounte Murray got that and he is a much more valuable asset than Brunson

Brunson is somewhere in between Brogdon and Murray in terms of trade value, perhaps closer to Brogdon than Murray. I do agree he is above Brogdon however,

Both brogdon and Murray have had injury issues.

I agree Murray is probably slightly better than Brunson, but when you factor in health risks, in a trade scenerio, I believe Brunson would have fetched similar to what Murray was traded for.

celts would have had to have upped the ante for brogden if he did not have health concerns as well.

anyways, this has been a great chat, maybe we just have a little bit of disagreement.

as I said in my OP, I was disappointed the Knicks did not also get Murray, as I believe that they could and should have easily matched or beaten that deal.