Latest Palm Bracketology - 2/28/2014 | Syracusefan.com

Latest Palm Bracketology - 2/28/2014

I know many don't care for Lunardi, but he and Palm are among the best. If you look at the Bracket Matrix website, it's like they let a bunch of kids submit their brackets with no rhyme or reason or justification behind their predictions. One guy has SU as a 3 seed with Florida as a 1 in the Midwest and Wichita State as a 1 in the South instead of the other way around. And having SU as anything but a 1 is ridiculous, although they may be on the border of a 2 I'll grant you.
 
Frozen said:
I know many don't care for Lunardi, but he and Palm are among the best. If you look at the Bracket Matrix website, it's like they let a bunch of kids submit their brackets with no rhyme or reason or justification behind their predictions. One guy has SU as a 3 seed with Florida as a 1 in the Midwest and Wichita State as a 1 in the South instead of the other way around. And having SU as anything but a 1 is ridiculous, although they may be on the border of a 2 I'll grant you.
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I like the Bracket Matrix. There are a few outliers -- I think the person above that had Syracuse as #3 basically seeds teams based on RPI. But when you add all 90 together you get a nice picture.

The standards to get on the bracket matrix are fairly limited I was on the bracket matrix for 2 or 3 years, around 2010. An admin for a board I posted brackets on (and subsequent discussion) asked me if it would be OK to submit my bracket to the matrix. Apparently a bracket, and a link to some discussion was all they needed. I think my brackets are fairly accurate, but some of the blogs that are linked... not so much.
 
Something I find very interesting this year. If #1 seed Wichita St played one team from each seed line (see below, 13-16 seeds not included) on a neutral court, how many games would they be favored in? Note, I do think an undefeated season warrants a #1 seed.

#2 Seed Kansas
#3 Seed Duke
#4 Seed Virginia
#5 Seed Kentucky
#6 Seed UNC
#7 Seed Memphis
#8 Seed Pitt
#9 Seed SMU
#10 Seed Baylor
#11 Seed Xavier
#12 Seed Harvard
 
Lawrinson14 said:
Something I find very interesting this year. If #1 seed Wichita St played one team from each seed line (see below, 13-16 seeds not included) on a neutral court, how many games would they be favored in? Note, I do think an undefeated season warrants a #1 seed.

#2 Seed Kansas
#3 Seed Duke
#4 Seed Virginia
#5 Seed Kentucky
#6 Seed UNC
#7 Seed Memphis
#8 Seed Pitt
#9 Seed SMU
#10 Seed Baylor
#11 Seed Xavier
#12 Seed Harvard
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That's a brutal schedule for anyone!
 
Hoo's That said:
That's a brutal schedule for anyone!
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My point is, at this point in the season Syracuse, Arizona, and Florida would be favored in most of these games on a neutral court even though they are against big name programs. As a true #1 seed should.

Wichita St, not so much.
 
would rather not have michigan in nyc.

they would have a TON of fans there.
 
Frozen said:
I know many don't care for Lunardi, but he and Palm are among the best. If you look at the Bracket Matrix website, it's like they let a bunch of kids submit their brackets with no rhyme or reason or justification behind their predictions. One guy has SU as a 3 seed with Florida as a 1 in the Midwest and Wichita State as a 1 in the South instead of the other way around. And having SU as anything but a 1 is ridiculous, although they may be on the border of a 2 I'll grant you.
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I agree, they are the best. However, it's like some of these site aren't even trying. Realtime RPI for example. They have SU as a #1 seed, in the Midwest, playing in Milwaukee and Indianapolis, while Arizona is #1 in the East, playing in Buffalo and MSG. KS is #1 in the West, playing in SD and Anaheim, while Florida is the other #1, playing in Milwaukee and Memphis. :crazy:
 
Lawrinson14 said:
Something I find very interesting this year. If #1 seed Wichita St played one team from each seed line (see below, 13-16 seeds not included) on a neutral court, how many games would they be favored in? Note, I do think an undefeated season warrants a #1 seed.

#2 Seed Kansas
#3 Seed Duke
#4 Seed Virginia
#5 Seed Kentucky
#6 Seed UNC
#7 Seed Memphis
#8 Seed Pitt
#9 Seed SMU
#10 Seed Baylor
#11 Seed Xavier
#12 Seed Harvard
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There is typically a close correlation between lines and KP (although not 100%). It seems to be a fairly similar rating system to Vegas. Although Vegas likes us more this year by a point or two.

I don't think many 1 seeds would be big favourites against Duke (#3 in KP) or Virginia (KP #4).

Wichita St is #7 in KP, but the difference between team #2 and team #10, is about 1 point on a neutral floor, so they would all be viewed about the same strength. In other words, it's really close between most teams at the top (and Virginia which would be a really good #4 seed, by oddsmakers standards).
 
orange79 said:
I agree, they are the best. However, it's like some of these site aren't even trying. Realtime RPI for example. They have SU as a #1 seed, in the Midwest, playing in Milwaukee and Indianapolis, while Arizona is #1 in the East, playing in Buffalo and MSG. KS is #1 in the West, playing in SD and Anaheim, while Florida is the other #1, playing in Milwaukee and Memphis. :crazy:
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Sometimes, when I submitted stuff to the matrix, I simply entered the projected seeds and did not update a bracket. That's all they used anyway.

Some people can come up with reasonable seeds, but have no clue how to do the bracket properly or don't take the time to do it properly.
 
I really like Palm, but he needs to dig a bit deeper with Louisville. There is a zero % chance that the committee gives the reigning national champion, perennial powerhouse a 5-seed, when they are ranked 7th in the country, with a BPI of 6!
 
orange79 said:
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

3rd #1 seed

2: Nova
3: Iowa St
4: Michigan - change from yesterday
5: St. Louis - change from yesterday

8: G Washington
9: Stanford - change from yesterday

16: Davidson - change from yesterday

We are 9-1 against that field
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Hard to hate that draw, outside of maybe Nova have to like our ability to match up with any of those teams. Iowa State would be an interesting game.
 
Lawrinson14 said:
My point is, at this point in the season Syracuse, Arizona, and Florida would be favored in most of these games on a neutral court even though they are against big name programs. As a true #1 seed should.

Wichita St, not so much.
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Totally agree. I hate how some of these teams seemingly hide all year and pop up in March. I'm really surprised that WSU wasn't in one of the big holiday tournaments.
 
DallasCuse said:
I really like Palm, but he needs to dig a bit deeper with Louisville. There is a zero % chance that the committee gives the reigning national champion, perennial powerhouse a 5-seed, when they are ranked 7th in the country, with a BPI of 6!
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I am confused by your point. Your quoting rankings and BPI which have no impact on seed. Palm is digging deeper into their results and you are doing the exact opposite of that. He is down on them because of a lack of quality wins.

I do they think they should now be a 4. Only 4 top 50 wins, but they also have no bad losses, when many teams in front of them have one.

BUT, they have a chance to move up to the 2 line by winning out. They can get 5 more top 50 wins before the season is over. (as of now they only have 4)
 
Why is davidson a 16 seed and why would NCCU not be the 16 seed? Isnt davidson pretty good.. Anyways, sign me up for that bracket. Stanford in round of 32 scares me tho
 
Hoo's That said:
Totally agree. I hate how some of these teams seemingly hide all year and pop up in March. I'm really surprised that WSU wasn't in one of the big holiday tournaments.
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They may have tried. Those fields are determined at least one year in advance, so the Shockers were not as alluring.

My point on Wichita St for a while has been they scheduled in order to be treated fairly as an at-large team. They want to play a balance of their top games at home. Consequently, the schedule is not enough to prove its a #1 seed. I don't think they are cheating the system, or deserve hate for it (as some people do loathe them here). Its simply a function of their strategy, and it limits them from possibly deserving a #1.
 
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We Are Syracuse said:
Why is davidson a 16 seed and why would NCCU not be the 16 seed? Isnt davidson pretty good.. Anyways, sign me up for that bracket. Stanford in round of 32 scares me tho
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.

The Southern is the 30th best conference in the country (out of 32) and Davidson has not dominated like it has in the past.
RPI #141
KP #133

In the past Davidson did things to suggest it was better than a regular champ from a horrible conference. Not this year.
 
jncuse said:
.

The Southern is the 30th best conference in the country (out of 32) and Davidson has not dominated like it has in the past.
RPI #141
KP #133

In the past Davidson did things to suggest it was better than a regular champ from a horrible conference. Not this year.
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I haven't seen one minute of a Davidson game this year, but Mckillop is one heck of a coach, that would be an unfair matchup for any one seed.
 
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