Class of 2015 Looking back at star ratings...

[jekelish]

I decided to take a look back at the star ratings for the last 8 Heisman winners, the 2014 AP All-America team, the All-ACC team, and the 2014 NFL first round picks to see how highly touted they were thought of. Interestingly, the average star rating across the board fell between 3.5 and 4.0 stars.

http://.com/gridiron-recruiting-do-stars-make-a-star/

 

[Bambrewer]

Good article and yes you spent a lot of time

 

[Dr. Bill]

I decided to take a look back at the star ratings for the last 8 Heisman winners, the 2014 AP All-America team, the All-ACC team, and the 2014 NFL first round picks to see how highly touted they were thought of. Interestingly, the average star rating across the board fell between 3.5 and 4.0 stars.

http://.com/gridiron-recruiting-do-stars-make-a-star/

I love statistics..but according to Mark Twain, "There are Lies...Damned Lies...and Statistics"...The average star rating was between 3.5 and 4. Syracuse averages less than 3.0 for it's recruiting classes...so maybe ther is somethingto this Star System as it relates to college performance..or maybe you believe Mark Twain...

 

[chakka3421]

My only comment would be that a program is better off playing the odds. Having more high 3 and 4 star players increases our odds of success. When we get to that level where we have 5-7 4 star players in every class then I would expect different results like 9 & 10 win seasons.

However with that said, I'm expecting a better result next year and year after with last year and this year's classes all essentially 3 star players with a few 4 star late in the process bumped up to that level. Now it's up to coaching and player development to get us consistently to the 7 win mark next year and 8 win the year after for regular season win total. I think we have the talent & experience now to get to 6-7 wins next year but it's up to coaching at this point, especially Lester & company.

I think most of us would be happy with an improving win record coupled with improving recruiting classes. Regarding the negative nellies out there, you can see the team speed, size & height getting better. I've talked directly to some of last year's recruits and they all commented that the first "ACC" class is quicker & faster than their upperclassman - they just aren't as experienced yet.

 

[jekelish]

Oh I know - don't get me wrong, as I said, I'd love to land 4 and 5 star prospects every year. But I was amazed to see how many of these guys are 3 stars coming out of high school.

 

[Bambrewer]

Speaking of stars perhaps now would be a good time to start the letter writing campaign to the athletic director about project restore44. I think if we were to get a pile of emails in to him in say the next 8 to 10 days it would go along way. It needs to be written as bring back the number 44 for recruiting not bring it back for any one player. His email is if you dont already have it on speed dial.

 

[rrlbees]

Oh I know - don't get me wrong, as I said, I'd love to land 4 and 5 star prospects every year. But I was amazed to see how many of these guys are 3 stars coming out of high school.

It's in the math. There are only 30-40 five stars, 300 four stars, yet over 1000 three stars and over 2,000 two stars. 350 vs. 3000.

 

[jekelish]

It's also just looking back for fun, to see how accurately some of these guys were projected. I like fun. A lot of people like fun.

 

[jekelish]

Additionally: how often do people complain that we don't get 4 or 5 star players? I basically wanted to show that hey, 3 star guys are same successful, too.

 

[hburgcuse]

I did some research and kept it for my own nerdy records...until now.

I was focused solely on Syracuse's recruits.
How many 2-star and even 1-star and no-star recruits have been very successful for SU and/or the NFL? Quite a few examples:

Ryan Nassib (2)
Jerome Smith (2.5)
Tony Fiametta (2)
Mike Williams (2)
Alec Lemon (2.5)
Taj Smith (2.5)
Justin Pugh (2)
Sean Hickey (2)
Macky MacPherson (2)
Omari Palmer (2)
Jay Bromley (0)
Arthur Jones (2.5)
Chandler Jones (2)
Brandon Sharpe (2)
Jameel McClain (2)
Derrell Smith (2)
Tanard Jackson (2)
Shamarko Thomas (2)
Durrell Eskridge (2.5)

(This number is their average star-ranking using the 2 major sites)

There aren't as many 4-star players to look at since 2002, but we don't have a great percentage of getting hits out of the 4-star players that we have landed:

Damien Rhodes (4) - HIT
Perry Patterson (3.5) - Can't say he was a hit
Ricky Krautman (3.5) - MISS
Lavar Lobdell (4) - Can't say he was a hit
Delone Carter (3.5) - HIT
Andrey Baskin (4) - MISS, never showed up
Doug Hogue (3.5) - HIT
Jermaine Pierce (4) - MISS, injury
Marcus Sales (4) - HIT
Mikhail Marinovich (3.5) - HIT
Averin Collier (4) - MISS
Romale Tucker (4) - MISS
Marquis Spruill (4 on 1 site, 2 on another) - HIT
Ashton Broyld (3.5) - Can't say he has been a hit
Ron Thompson (3.5) - Looking like a HIT
K.J. Williams (4) - MISS, probably will never show up


Take from that info what you will.

 

[spo023]

http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...96710/nfl-draft-recruits-five-stars-two-stars

"How sleeper recruits still make the NFL, despite blue-chip dominance"

"Four- and five-star recruits were 995 percent more likely to be drafted in the first round than their lesser-ranked counterparts."

"Consider this: While four- and five-star recruits made up just 9.4 percent of all recruits, they accounted for 55 percent of the first and second round. Any blue-chip prospect has an excellent shot of going on to be a top pick, if he stays healthy and out of trouble."

Based on 2010 class in 2014 draft:

• 
  
  
  • A five-star recruit had a three-in-five chance of getting drafted (16 of 27).
  • A four-star had a one-in-five chance (77 of 395).
  • A three-star had a one-in-18 chance (92 of 1,644).
  • A two-star/unrated recruit had a one-in-34 chance (71 of 2,434).

 

[Crusty]

A chemist a biologist and a statistician went duck hunting. The chemist shot first and yelled " missed left". The biologist fired next and yelled "missed right". The statistician yelled "Got em!"