Losing our top three scorers, in the Boeheim era

[Eric15]

Only four times during the Boeheim era has Syracuse lost it's top three scorers in one season. This season is the 5th.

1983 (Erich Santifer, Leo Rautins, Tony Bruin)
following season, 1984: improved

1986 (Pearl, Rafael Addison, Wendell Alexis)
following season, 1987: improved

2000 (Jason Hart, Etan Thomas, Ryan Blackwell)
following season, 2001: worse

2009 (Jonny Flynn, Eric Devendorf, Paul Harris)
following season, 2010: improved

I know this is a small sample size, and this dovetails on that thread about re-loading, but it's interesting how losing tons of talent and leadership rarely hurts us. Even the 2001 team was a very solid 5 seed in the tourney.

 

[JrodCuse]

I actually think we will improve. Hard not to when you factor in we made the tournament by the seat of our pants. Will we make the F4 again? Who knows, that is a total crapshoot, but I do think our regular season will be a lot better. Overall record: better.

 

[Fly Rodder]

Only four times during the Boeheim era has Syracuse lost it's top three scorers in one season. This season is the 5th.
...
2009 (Jonny Flynn, Eric Devendorf, Paul Harris)
following season, 2010: improved

I'd be ecstatic to get a Wes Johnson season out of Lydon and I'd drive him to the NBA combine myself. Having a senior Rautins and AO really helped that squad, too.

 

[Eric15]

Unfortunately for next year's team, we could win 4 or 5 more regular season games, win a couple ACCT games, and get a strong seed in the tournament, and lose in the Sweet 16. An all-around solid year. But that will "feel" like a step back after going to the Final Four, even if we are a much better team.

 

[OttoMets]

Obviously no two years are alike, but I think we had a lot more returning depth in those seasons. And our 1986 recruiting class dwarfed 2016, if I remember correctly.

This team will have a number of nice players at individual positions (and upgrades at both starting guard spots), but the lack of depth is troubling and is likely to keep this group from reaching its ceiling.

 

[MSOrange]

Obviously no two years are alike, but I think we had a lot more returning depth in those seasons. And our 1986 recruiting class dwarfed 2016, if I remember correctly.

This team will have a number of nice players at individual positions (and upgrades at both starting guard spots), but the lack of depth is troubling and is likely to keep this group from reaching its ceiling.

You are correct about the 1986 recruiting class. It included Stevie Thompson, Keith Hughes, Matt Roe, Erik Rogers and some guy named Coleman

 

[Brooky03]

Obviously no two years are alike, but I think we had a lot more returning depth in those seasons. And our 1986 recruiting class dwarfed 2016, if I remember correctly.

This team will have a number of nice players at individual positions (and upgrades at both starting guard spots), but the lack of depth is troubling and is likely to keep this group from reaching its ceiling.

We're going to be 7 deep next season, with Moyer likely making it 8. That's not different than what we do in most seasons. We had just 3 guards all of these seasons following the top 3 scorers leaving. If we count Shumpert as a G/, that would give 2001 4 guards. We're not in unchartered territory with the short bench and lack of guard depth. In fact, I'd say we're in familiar waters.

 

[Fly Rodder]

We're going to be 7 deep next season, with Moyer likely making it 8. That's not different than what we do in most seasons. ... In fact, I'd say we're in familiar waters.

Lots of good-to-great SU teams are buoyed by having had those end of the bench roster spots turn into quality starters/subs as upperclassman. The program can't continually sustain that success by turning the flow down on their talent pipeline. Unless they want to go all in on one & dones like Duke, Arizona, KU, and UK. They certainly could, but it's a crowded already.

 

[OttoMets]

We're going to be 7 deep next season, with Moyer likely making it 8. That's not different than what we do in most seasons. We had just 3 guards all of these seasons following the top 3 scorers leaving. If we count Shumpert as a G/, that would give 2001 4 guards. We're not in unchartered territory with the short bench and lack of guard depth. In fact, I'd say we're in familiar waters.

7 or 8 in the rotation is standard. 7 or 8 in practice is the bigger problem - Battle needs to be going up against a peer, not Adrian Autry's kid. Most of those teams cited above had the normal complement of scholarship reserves; heck, the guy who got the 9th-most number of minutes in 1987 was a McDonald's All-America.

Finally, if someone should get hurt (not that unusual for Syracuse in recent years), we're in trouble.

 

[Dave85]

Is it me or does it seem like we have this line up discussion every year!

 

[IthacaMatt]

We're going to be 7 deep next season, with Moyer likely making it 8. That's not different than what we do in most seasons. We had just 3 guards all of these seasons following the top 3 scorers leaving. If we count Shumpert as a G/, that would give 2001 4 guards. We're not in unchartered territory with the short bench and lack of guard depth. In fact, I'd say we're in familiar waters.

Everybody tries to downplay the lack of numbers on the roster, but you are missing an important point. Sure, some years Boeheim plays a very short bench. But to say we "don't need" the additional players is shortsighted. Obviously one injury throws the team into turmoil, especially if it's a guard. And you need to have good players to practice against if you want to get better. The season is not just about the games. It's about improving in practice every day. If you only have 7 or 8 scholarship players, you wind up with walk-ons playing a major role in your scrimmages. It hurts your development when you don't have other top players to compete against in practice.

 

[IthacaMatt]

7 or 8 in the rotation is standard. 7 or 8 in practice is the bigger problem - Battle needs to be going up against a peer, not Adrian Autry's kid. le.

Your second point I totally agree with - people need to play against roughly equally talented players in practice to get better.

As to the former point, 7 man rotations are the exception, not the rule. The average is 8 - 2 centers, 3 forwards and 3 guards. When we have a deep bench, we frequently play 9. Go look it up. This year was a very short bench because we didn't have the players. It has happened a few times ('96 was another year where a very short bench wound up in glory), but it's not the norm.

 

[Day2]

Wait, is this the football board? Because every other thread, people keep moving the goalposts.

 

[Brooky03]

Everybody tries to downplay the lack of numbers on the roster, but you are missing an important point. Sure, some years Boeheim plays a very short bench. But to say we "don't need" the additional players is shortsighted. Obviously one injury throws the team into turmoil, especially if it's a guard. And you need to have good players to practice against if you want to get better. The season is not just about the games. It's about improving in practice every day. If you only have 7 or 8 scholarship players, you wind up with walk-ons playing a major role in your scrimmages. It hurts your development when you don't have other top players to compete against in practice.

I'm not saying more guys wouldn't be nice. I'm saying it doesn't and hasn't made much difference in terms of the team's performance on the court. It's not short-sighted, it's just what it is and has been. Yeah, 5-on-5 scrimmages are good to have, but starter v. starter in individual work or 3-on-3 stuff is just as valuable. Playing against a walk-on guard isn't going to make Tyus Battle any less capable of making Grayson Allen wish he just went pro to avoid the ass-whooping coming his way.

 

[pfister1]

Everybody tries to downplay the lack of numbers on the roster, but you are missing an important point. Sure, some years Boeheim plays a very short bench. But to say we "don't need" the additional players is shortsighted. Obviously one injury throws the team into turmoil, especially if it's a guard. And you need to have good players to practice against if you want to get better. The season is not just about the games. It's about improving in practice every day. If you only have 7 or 8 scholarship players, you wind up with walk-ons playing a major role in your scrimmages. It hurts your development when you don't have other top players to compete against in practice.

Not trying to be a jerk, but remind me of a time when we've had a serious injury to an important player and we've overcome that injury using players elevated from the bench. Certainly wasn't 2010. Probably not 2012 either (although I realize Fab wasn't an injury). I'm sure there must be an example, but my recollection is that when have experienced an injury to an important player we generally don't haven't had a replacement.

 

[Dave85]

Only four times during the Boeheim era has Syracuse lost it's top three scorers in one season. This season is the 5th.

1983 (Erich Santifer, Leo Rautins, Tony Bruin)
following season, 1984: improved

1986 (Pearl, Rafael Addison, Wendell Alexis)
following season, 1987: improved

2000 (Jason Hart, Etan Thomas, Ryan Blackwell)
following season, 2001: worse

2009 (Jonny Flynn, Eric Devendorf, Paul Harris)
following season, 2010: improved

I know this is a small sample size, and this dovetails on that thread about re-loading, but it's interesting how losing tons of talent and leadership rarely hurts us. Even the 2001 team was a very solid 5 seed in the tourney.

I love this kind of post.

 

[Dave85]

Not trying to be a jerk,

I'm pretty sure most of the time I have no choice in the matter!

 

[OttoMets]

Not trying to be a jerk, but remind me of a time when we've had a serious injury to an important player and we've overcome that injury using players elevated from the bench. Certainly wasn't 2010. Probably not 2012 either (although I realize Fab wasn't an injury). I'm sure there must be an example, but my recollection is that when have experienced an injury to an important player we generally don't haven't had a replacement.

With even 10 guys on scholarship, we could replace Paul Harris with Kris Joseph, Arinze with Dashonte Riley, McCullough with Roberson. (This is off the top of my head, and we've certainly been fortunate with injuries in the last couple decades.) With 8, we risk bringing a walk-on into the rotation if a couple guys get dinged up.

 

[Fly Rodder]

... that when have experienced an injury to an important player we generally haven't had a replacement.

That seems like something SU should keep doing. It seems to have worked so well in the past. And those were on teams with 10-12 scholarship athletes. 8-9 is even more a risk. Add in a injury or a frosh that doesn't quite pan out or a guy doesn't make an improvement, etc. Just in the last three seasons, we've gotten next to no production from two guys and one who started but found the doghouse so quickly he transferred, too. In 07-08, SU had 5 guards on the roster and both Devo AND rautins went down, Josh Wright did Josh Wright things. SU had a not-awful team (9-9 in conference and 9th just like this last season, just no NCAA appearance) through the contributions of freshman Scoop who wasn't supposed to get any minutes.

Playing shorthanded is just a huge risk and, ultimately, it makes me wonder why Syracuse can't get 3-4 star talent to sit on the bench, but UK, UNC, KU, etc have 4-5 stars riding the pine or playing sparingly.

 

[Cusefan0307]

That seems like something SU should keep doing. It seems to have worked so well in the past. And those were on teams with 10-12 scholarship athletes. 8-9 is even more a risk. Add in a injury or a frosh that doesn't quite pan out or a guy doesn't make an improvement, etc. Just in the last three seasons, we've gotten next to no production from two guys and one who started but found the doghouse so quickly he transferred, too. In 07-08, SU had 5 guards on the roster and both Devo AND rautins went down, Josh Wright did Josh Wright things. SU had a not-awful team (9-9 in conference and 9th just like this last season, just no NCAA appearance) through the contributions of freshman Scoop who wasn't supposed to get any minutes.

Playing shorthanded is just a huge risk and, ultimately, it makes me wonder why Syracuse can't get 3-4 star talent to sit on the bench, but UK, UNC, KU, etc have 4-5 stars riding the pine or playing sparingly.

In fairness some of those 4 or 5 star guys on the bench for Duke and UK really play like two star guys. I didn't see anything our of Derryck Thornton or Chase Jeter that warranted the hype.