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Message: [QUOTE="RF2044, post: 5526815, member: 40"] I keep repeating this, but seems relevant again here. Recruiting QBs is a crapshoot -- even at blue chip factories. That's because QB prospects are often evaluted based upon attributes, projecting what they COULD turn into. These guys are often the best athletes on the field in HS, so they dominate, and that's why they are rated highly. But what the "measureables" don't measure are things like how quickly the QB processes information on the field, whether they get rattled when facing live pass rush, refinement in terms of how they use their eyes / pump fakes to manipulate the secondary, instincts for playmaking, etc. Instead, what often gets talked about is arm strength, athleticism, etc. That's how a guy like DJ Uaigileilei was rated a 5-star, when he had a poor feel for the game. He had all the tools, but not the intangibles. Even at factories, it's a crapshoot. Teams like Ohio State get highly rated 4- and 5-star QB recruits EVERY SINGLE YEAR. Most of them don't pan out meaningfully. Some of that is attributable to opportunity, but even when some of those guys transfer, they don't do much. For every Joe Burrow, there are a bunch of examples of guys who don't do much at the new school. A guy like Collins isn't a "bad" QB prospect, and he was a good gamble for us to roll the dice on. He's a smart, hardworking kid. He was the 10th highest rated pocket passing QB in his class. He committed to Purdue, before shifting to LSU. He has a lot of the right tools / attributes, but is lacking in other ways. His footwork and mechanics are unrefined. He locks onto his primary receiver and doesn't go through progressions, enabling defenses to jump throws [and resulting in higher number of interceptions]. He's a good athlete and can run, but his lack of instincts / feel for the QB position inhibit him here, as well, since it seems like he's a beat late when he elects to take off. Players like Dungey and Shrader were instinctive playmakers, but lacked some important measureables relative to arm talent. But they made up for it by making plays in other ways -- extending a play on the move to create a throwing lane or allow a receiver to get open, being elusive as hell, being such strong running threats, etc. THAT'S why they were exceptional college QBs, despite not necessarily having NFL-caliber throwing talent. Collins lacks that type of playmaking apptitude -- as a passer OR as a runner. I don't know if we've seen "enough" to fully write Collins off -- although I think that we probably have seen enough to not expect significant improvement. I think he is what he is at this stage. That doesn't mean that he won't improve with more experience, or be a viable starter somewhere else [a la Morgan / CDRW]. But I don't expect him to magically turn things around this year, he just lacks the instincts to be a high end P4 starter. I also have no idea whether Carney's readiness means that he'd be an upgrade, or would similarly struggle. Just have to trust the coaches here. I don't necessarily resonate with the "it can't get any worse" sentiment -- it absolutely could, if Carney is a downgrade from Collins, at this point on his developmental curve. Maybe that's why the coaches aren't talking about a change. But if they do make the change, it probably means that they think he is at least on par with Collins, and that they know Collins won't give the team the best chance to be successful. [/QUOTE]

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