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[QUOTE="CU44SE, post: 4985060, member: 2196"]
one major issue.  You need to absolutely consider strength of schedule and victory. If you win 24 games and play cupcakes and a down confrence and I win 18 but played the hardest schedule in the country.  You use numbers to quantify that.

Bottom line and this is very generic.

Road win 1 point
Neutral win .75 ponts
Home win 0.5 points.

Now wins are wins.  But you should deffinetly weigh the victory or loss based on their schedule and who they play.

I don’t like the average margin of victory into this algorithm though. It doesn’t account for bad games.  It doesn’t account for when you’re down 8 with 6 mins left and everything just falls apart and you lose by 20.  Not every 20 point victory/loss is the same. Against Tennessee this year I think it was like a 2 point game or 4 point game with 3 minutes left. We ended up losing by 15 I think.  Computers see that as a 15 point loss. We were within 1 possession under 4 timeout.  But numbers don’t see that as a close game.

Bottom line. There is a lot of good to be used from numbers.  But margin of victory should never be utilized to weigh scores or results. This will always skew the results because numbers only look at the end result.  If you are going to utilize numbers for margin of victory and so on.  The bare minimum would be to utilize the mean or standard deviation of the score for every minute of the game.  That way you could see how tightly contested the game was throughout and not just the end result.
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