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[QUOTE="jncuse, post: 4992129, member: 1969"]
I'll give you a quick stat -- in 66 games against Q4 teams, the B12 was 39-23 against the spread (with 4 pushes) and there were many more massive covers than shortfalls.    In fact the 6 teams highest in the B12 standing went 22-4 against the spread.  (I started an an analysis in the gambling thread the other day - see link below)   That's not a small sample to do really well in - its not only 5 games.
 
The easiest way, and the traditional way for a conference to benefit from NET or RPI, has simply been to play well out of conference as a group in terms of win and losses (obviously with schedule consideration).  The B12 played really well in Q1 and Q2 games last year OOC, and avoided bad losses and they got the tourney seeding and selection love they earned.      ACC failed  in that regard in 2022, 2023 (both miserably) and 2024 (although to a lesser extent).  It's hard to manipulate NET when you only win 73% of your Q3 games like the ACC did this year.

That being said something is clearly happening in the B12 this year.  Their Q1+Q2 record as compared the SEC, ACC, MWC (as I had calculated earlier) did not stand out as much better--  like it did last year.   They did excel in Q3 games (winning 96% of 26 games).   But something had to happen for them to be doing so well in NET.

And its in those Q4 games where they are performing extremely well over a not so small sample of 66 games.  Is it manipulation or simply being better in those Q4 games?    Hard to tell.

But I can tell you there is one type of game that is easiest for a team to control its narrative margin wise -- especially good teams that find a way to go 22-4 in those games.

[URL unfurl="true"]https://syracusefan.com/threads/sports-gambling-thread.146011/page-58[/URL]
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