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[QUOTE="jncuse, post: 4992303, member: 1969"]
There is probably (I would say is but I am only 98% confident in what I am writing below) an element of double counting going on when you get road wins.

Here is the problem - if you are going to go with a system that is primarily MOV as your baseline.

It's already giving you a 7 or 8 point "adjustment" for playing on the road instead of at home.   Remember the home court advantage is somewhere between 3.5 to 4.    So say you win on the road, you probably get a margin reward, and then you get a road win kicker.

I tracked the biggest movers in NET week over week, for about 3 weeks (which is possible with Warren Nolan since they always show the NET at end of prior week).   One example is post #8 in the thread below.

Gonzaga +20 (2 Q4 Road Wins by 67 points)
Drake +20 (2 Q4 Wins, one on the road, won by 70 points)
Virginia +16 (2 Q2 Wins, one road, won by 17 points)
Colorado +14 (Q2 Win + Q4 Win, both home, won by 49 points)
Syracuse +12 (Q1+Q2 Win, one road, won by 14 points)
Providence +11 (Q4 Road Win, won by 38 points)
New Mexico +11 (Q1 Win + Q4 Road Win, won by 32 points)
St. Mary's +10 (Q1 Road Win at San Fran)

It's pretty clear that road wins are by far the biggest mover.    Road wins should be valued more, but it seems the double counting really comes into play here.

[URL unfurl="true"]https://syracusefan.com/threads/an-early-2024-bracket-matrix-follow-or-other-tourney-stuff-if-you-want.180605/[/URL]
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