Good post. You make some good points.
There are indeed no guarantees in NCAA seeding. but I think it is a near lock that Syracuse gets pod seeded in Philly if they are ranked in the top 16 at the end of the regular season. I like our chances to finish in the top 16.
Here is the preseason top 25, based on combined rankings, put together by Bleacher Report:
No. 1 Indiana (Top 25 preseason ranking positions:
Sporting News No. 1, ESPN No. 1,
Sports Illustrated No. 1, Yahoo! Sports No. 1)
No. 2 Louisville (Top 25 preseason ranking positions:
Sporting News No. 2, ESPN No. 2,
SI No. 2, Yahoo! Sports No. 3)
No. 3 Kentucky (Top 25 preseason ranking positions:
Sporting News No. 4, ESPN No. 3,
SI No. 4, Yahoo! Sports No. 2)
No. 4 (tie) Michigan (Top 25 preseason ranking positions:
Sporting News No. 5, ESPN No. 5,
SI No. 9, Yahoo! Sports No. 6)
No. 4 (tie) NC State (Top 25 preseason ranking positions:
Sporting News No. 9, ESPN No. 6,
SI No. 5, Yahoo! Sports No. 5)
No. 4 (tie) UCLA (Top 25 preseason ranking positions:
Sporting News No. 11, ESPN No. 7,
SI No. 3, Yahoo! Sports No. 4)
No. 7 Ohio State (Top 25 preseason ranking positions:
Sporting News No. 3, ESPN No. 8,
SI No. 7, Yahoo! Sports No. 12)
No. 8 Kansas (Top 25 preseason ranking positions:
Sporting News No. 12, ESPN No. 4,
SI No. 8, Yahoo! Sports No. 10)
No. 9 Florida (Top 25 preseason ranking positions:
Sporting News No. 16, ESPN No. 12,
SI No. 6, Yahoo! Sports No. 7)
No. 10 UNC (Top 25 preseason ranking positions:
Sporting News No. 13, ESPN No. 13,
SI No. 12, Yahoo! Sports No. 8)
No. 11 Baylor (Top 25 preseason ranking positions: ESPN No. 11,
SI No. 13, Yahoo! Sports No. 11)*
No. 12 Syracuse (Top 25 preseason ranking positions:
Sporting News No. 7, ESPN No. 10,
SI No. 17, Yahoo! Sports No. 15)
No. 13 Duke (Top 25 preseason ranking positions:
Sporting News No. 6, ESPN No. 15,
SI No. 14, Yahoo! Sports No. 16)
No. 14 Arizona (Top 25 preseason ranking positions:
Sporting News No. 8, ESPN No. 17,
SI No. 24, Yahoo! Sports No. 9)
No. 15 Missouri (Top 25 preseason ranking positions:
Sporting News No. 10, ESPN No. 24,
SI No. 10)*
No. 16 Memphis (Top 25 preseason ranking positions:
Sporting News No. 15, ESPN No. 14,
SI No. 16, Yahoo! Sports No. 19)
No. 17 (tie) Creighton (Top 25 preseason ranking positions:
Sporting News No. 14, ESPN No. 18,
SI No. 19, Yahoo! Sports No. 18)
No. 17 (tie) Gonzaga (Top 25 preseason ranking positions:
Sporting News No. 21, ESPN No. 20,
SI No. 15, Yahoo! Sports No. 13)
No. 17 (tie) Michigan State (Top 25 preseason ranking positions:
Sporting News No. 22, ESPN No. 9,
SI No. 18, Yahoo! Sports No. 20)
No. 20 Notre Dame (Top 25 preseason ranking positions:
Sporting News No. 24, ESPN No. 19,
SI No. 11, Yahoo! Sports No. 17)
No. 21 San Diego State (Top 25 preseason ranking positions:
Sporting News No. 19, ESPN No. 16,
SI No. 23, Yahoo! Sports No. 14)
No. 22 Wisconsin (Top 25 preseason ranking positions:
Sporting News No. 17, ESPN No. 22,
SI No. 20, Yahoo! Sports No. 25)
No. 23 UNLV (Top 25 preseason ranking positions:
Sporting News No. 20, ESPN No. 23,
SI No. 21, Yahoo! Sports No. 24)
No. 24 VCU (Top 25 preseason ranking positions:
Sporting News No. 25,
SI No. 22, Yahoo! Sports No. 22)*
No. 25 Teams included in only one or two of the four rankings used:
Texas (ESPN No. 21, Yahoo! Sports No. 21),
Cincinnati (
Sporting News No. 18),
Marquette (
SI No. 25),
Minnesota (ESPN No. 25),
Murray State (
Sporting News No. 23),
Tennessee (Yahoo! Sports No. 23)Even if the NCAA puts NC State, Duke and UNC in Philly,
As you can see, Syracuse is the only team from the Northeast expected to be in the top 25 (and it is close to concensus that Syracuse will finish in the top 16).
Even if the NCAA put NC State, Duke and UNC in Philly, and all finished in front of Syracuse, I still see SU headed to the City of Brotherly Love.
There is unlikely going to be an influx of teams from the Midwest to Lexington either. Have to believe UL is a near lock to get seeded there (UK can't since they are hosting). Memphis has a great chance too. The venues in Auburn Hills and Dayton are much better fits for Michigan and Ohio State than Lexington as well. Michigan State would surely be seeded in Auburn Hills if they end up in the top 16, as would ND (Auburn Hills is closest for them, followed by Dayton).
If anyone in the Northeast finishes ahead of SU in the rankings, it is going to be Pittsburgh (they are really underrated at this point), and Pittsburgh is about 50 miles closer to Dayton than it is to Philadelphia, so if they finish in the top 16 (a good possibility), they are not a threat to take SU's slot in Philly either.
Regarding ACC schools getting seeded in Philly instead of Lexington, you are correct, there will be ACC schools assigned there, in part because Northeast basketball is so weak this year and in part because there are no first round sites in ACC country this year.
However, I will point out that Google says Raleigh is 398 miles from Philadelphia and 495 miles from Lexington. Not much difference. When you factor in the notorious traffic issues between DC and Philly, you can argue it will be easier and shorter for fans from NC to drive to Lexington. Assuming form holds, I think one of NC State, UNC and Duke will be seeded there instead of Philly, but all 3 could get there.
I think college basketball in the Northeast is going to be the weakest it has been in many years this season (at least if you are looking at it from the perspective of top 25 teams). When was the last time only one school from the NE was in the top 25 at the start of the season?
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