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[QUOTE="RF2044, post: 1365597, member: 40"]
I think the big problem is that the orientation of which kids are drafted has changed.  It is obvious that a Lebron or a Carmelo or an Anthony Davis are going to be superstars.  The funny thing is that nearly 20 years ago, players like Kobe Bryant got drafted around #13, Kevin Durant around #5, Tracy McGrady around #10.  That's because people weren't sure about how they'd perform, coming straight out of high school.
 
After those guys -- who were supremely talented, for the record -- did well, the NBA shifted to a mode where they were more about potential than proven production. 
 
I also think that NBA front office types became more risk-averse when it came to opportunity cost of missing out than ever before.  They would rather take a guy and miss than not take him and have him blow up.  Which is why they reached to take unproven high school prospects in the aftermath of Kobe / KG / TMac, hoping that they'd get the next one. 
 
Problem is, the vast majority of early entrants aren't nearly as talented as they were.   That's how guys like Michael Redd, Carlos Boozer, Draymon Green, etc. drop into the second round every year, and then go on to be fantastic players.
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