Matt Harvey vs. Stephen Strasburg

[SWC75]

Baseball Reference.com has this as their record "per 162 game season" so far in their careers:

Harvey 14-10, 256 strikeouts to 76 walks, ERA 2.07

Strasburg 14-9, 233 strikeouts 52 walks, ERA 3.01

And when they faced each other:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN201304190.shtml

Just sayin'

 

[BlackKnight76]

Unbelievable game last night. You just can't pitch better.

 

[Solitude]

Unbelievable game last night. You just can't pitch better.

And with a bloody nose! Harvey is a stone cold killer. It seems like nothing fazes him.

 

[Knicks411]

Harvey is amazing. I dont even know what to say, I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop

 

[CorduroyG]

harvey and wheeler is whats saving me as a met fan. wheeler supposedly has better stuff than harvey. he better be up soon

 

[BlackKnight76]

harvey and wheeler is whats saving me as a met fan. wheeler supposedly has better stuff than harvey. he better be up soon

He's gotta get his together in Vegas

 

[SWC75]

He's gotta get his together in Vegas

Wheeler's minor league stats are promising but hardly dazzling:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=wheele001zac

But Harvey's ERAs in the majors are much better than they were in the minors. Go figure.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harvema01.shtml

Sometimes players just have their own schedule of development, which has little to do with the level of baseball they are playing at.

I had hoped the Mets would hold on to R. A. Dickey and have a rotation before the season is over of Dickey, Harvey, Wheeler, Niece and Gee, (in some order). But R. A. isn't exactly ripping it up in Toronto:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=dicker.01&t=p&year=2013
Maybe it's cold weather. Maybe it's the Dome. I realize that last year was likely his best year and he'd come down from that. I also realize he's 38 years old. But he is a knuckleballer so I thought he had some good years left. But for the moment, that trade, despite the injury to D'Arnuad, is looking pretty good. It got us John Buck who is off to an amazing start.

Mike Pelfrey is also struggling in Minnesota with a 6.35 ERA. At one time I thought he'd be a long-term ace for the Mets:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=pelfrmi01&t=p&year=2013

 

[BlackKnight76]

They say Harvey was getting bored at AAA and I guess the same could be happening with Wheeler but he's never really shown it at that level yet. If he puts together one or two straight really great starts out there I think he gets the call.

 

[br801]

Baseball Reference.com has this as their record "per 162 game season" so far in their careers:

Harvey 14-10, 256 strikeouts to 76 walks, ERA 2.07

Strasburg 14-9, 233 strikeouts 52 walks, ERA 3.01

And when they faced each other:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN201304190.shtml

Just sayin'

For the sake of the game, here's hoping Harvey has a long and dominant run. But the sample size is a small one, and baseball history is littered with pitching phenoms whose careers were derailed for one reason or another.

 

[Knicks411]

Wheeler has been real good the last 2 times out, I think if he strings together 2 more, he's gotta be in contention, especially with Gee and Hefner not doing real well. (Though Hefner has been better lately)

 

[BlackKnight76]

The other factor for Wheeler as well is getting him enough time in AAA so that the Mets retain the extra year of control of his contract. Doubt we see him before then, but I think it's coming up. We're not in it this year, I can wait another month for Wheeler if it means another year at the back end of his deal.

 

[moqui]

the PCL is a hitter-friendly league, plus Wheeler struggled with his control early on, but he has been very good recently. I read the other day that signs point to the June series with the Braves for his call up.

 

[Knicks411]

We're already well past the date for the extra year of control (that's like the first 10-20 days of the season), any issue right now would be him earning an extra year of arbitration. That is a floating cutoff, but usually around the first week or so of June, I thik

 

[Trueblue25]

All hail Kawasaki of Toronto

 

[billsin01]

I had hoped the Mets would hold on to R. A. Dickey and have a rotation before the season is over of Dickey, Harvey, Wheeler, Niece and Gee, (in some order). But R. A. isn't exactly ripping it up in Toronto:

I never understood the Dickey deal from the Mets perspective (I'm a sox fan, so I don't care that much, but still ...). I mean, you have a guy who had pitched well enough to win a cy young and chew up a truckload of innings. He's asking for a really moderate, realtively short-term extension (wasn't he talking like 3 years, $30M?). And you had some really promising young pitching in Harvey (already in the majors), wheeler (who everyone loves) and the forgotten guy Niese, who's a decent back-end starter. That rotation isn't far from competing as long as Wheeler works out. And even if Weeler flames out, you're still only one arm away from a competitive rotation.

Anyway, just bizarre that the Mets, playing in a huge market (yes, I know, Bernie Madoff) are starting three outfielders no one has ever heard of and traded a reigning cy young winner asking for a modest contract extension. I guess tey loved D'Arnaud, but I still take the proven ace.

 

[SWC75]

I never understood the Dickey deal from the Mets perspective (I'm a sox fan, so I don't care that much, but still ...). I mean, you have a guy who had pitched well enough to win a cy young and chew up a truckload of innings. He's asking for a really moderate, realtively short-term extension (wasn't he talking like 3 years, $30M?). And you had some really promising young pitching in Harvey (already in the majors), wheeler (who everyone loves) and the forgotten guy Niese, who's a decent back-end starter. That rotation isn't far from competing as long as Wheeler works out. And even if Weeler flames out, you're still only one arm away from a competitive rotation.

Anyway, just bizarre that the Mets, playing in a huge market (yes, I know, Bernie Madoff) are starting three outfielders no one has ever heard of and traded a reigning cy young winner asking for a modest contract extension. I guess tey loved D'Arnaud, but I still take the proven ace.

The Mets top two outfielders in terms of salary are Bobby Bonilla and Jason Bay. That's how badly the club has been run. The Wilpons have turned a big market team into a small market team. But they get to keep the team because they are pals with Selig.

 

[upperdeck]

dickey has an ERA of almost 6. pitching is not the issue this year. they need a 1B who can hit and Davis is shot. you cant win with 4 guys playing who cant hit their own weight.

 

[SWC75]

dickey has an ERA of almost 6. pitching is not the issue this year. they need a 1B who can hit and Davis is shot. you cant win with 4 guys playing who cant hit their own weight.

I still have hopes for Davis, who is only 26 and who hit well the second half of last season. But his tendancy to bad starts is very frustrating.

 

[BlackKnight76]

I never understood the Dickey deal from the Mets perspective (I'm a sox fan, so I don't care that much, but still ...). I mean, you have a guy who had pitched well enough to win a cy young and chew up a truckload of innings. He's asking for a really moderate, realtively short-term extension (wasn't he talking like 3 years, $30M?). And you had some really promising young pitching in Harvey (already in the majors), wheeler (who everyone loves) and the forgotten guy Niese, who's a decent back-end starter. That rotation isn't far from competing as long as Wheeler works out. And even if Weeler flames out, you're still only one arm away from a competitive rotation.

Anyway, just bizarre that the Mets, playing in a huge market (yes, I know, Bernie Madoff) are starting three outfielders no one has ever heard of and traded a reigning cy young winner asking for a modest contract extension. I guess tey loved D'Arnaud, but I still take the proven ace.

I could've gone either way on the Dickey deal, but with how he's pitching this year it looks like we did absolutely the right thing. He wasn't going to be here either way when we were ready to be competitive, might as well use the piece to expedite that process.

 

[upperdeck]

I really start to think they would be better seeing if the young catcher can play first at all. I could live with 20/90/250 from the catcher if it means we might see a .300 guy at first. they have plugged catchers in for the last 5-6 years and gotten decent output

 

[billsin01]

I could've gone either way on the Dickey deal, but with how he's pitching this year it looks like we did absolutely the right thing. He wasn't going to be here either way when we were ready to be competitive, might as well use the piece to expedite that process.

I think punting on an entire season is ridiculous b/c you're not guaranteed anything. How does this move expedite the process. I get that it could, conceivably, and I'm not one to support holding onto guys based on their names/reps or for ticket sales. But you trade away a guy who in the past three years has pitched ~600 innings with an ERA of ~3.00? And he was asking for a commitment of $30M over three more years? And you're a huge market team?

I don't know, maybe D'Araud makes me look like an idiot a couple years from now, but Dickey struggling in the AL East (though he's still on pace to throw 216 innings and outside of getting blown up vs. Boston earlier this year, he's gone at least 6 every single start) doesn't mean he wouldn't still be very valuable on that roster.

 

[billsin01]

dickey has an ERA of almost 6. pitching is not the issue this year. they need a 1B who can hit and Davis is shot. you cant win with 4 guys playing who cant hit their own weight.

Dickey's ERA is 5.06. Not good, but he's gone at least 6 in every start but one and he's pitching in a different world in the AL East. He was unlikely to duplicate what he did last year for the NYM but it's tough to argue he would've thrown less than 200 IP with any ERA worse than 3.75-4. That's a really, really valuable player for $10M/per.

 

[Knicks411]

Haha, I could "live" with 250/20/90 from a catcher as well. That makes him what, one of the three best catchers in the game? Maybe 5?

And you're a huge market team?

Not right now, which is the problem.

Also worth mentioning that Noah Syndergard is dong pretty well in A ball as well.

 

[moqui]

the thing with the Dickey deal is that, to me, it did not make sense to move Dickey and then re-sign Wright. If you are going to rebuild, then rebuild. I don't get why you would commit to paying a guy $20M a year for the rest of the decade when his defense is already in decline and his bat probably will be, too, before the contract is half finished.

Maybe the plan is to let Davis go, install Wilmer Flores at 3B and move Wright to 1B. But then by 2015 or 2016, they will find themselves paying Albert Pujols money for Rico Brogna production.

 

[Knicks411]

I would think if they let Davis go Duda would be playing first, but who knows.

Wright is a little below $20 million a year, its about $17 million, which may be inconsequential.

Wright is 30, Dickey is 38. I know Dickey is a knuckleballer, so maybe he can pitch for a long time, but Wright is more likely to be a good player in 3 years (well, he's more likely to be a good player in pretty much any time period you select) than Dickey is.

Hopefully the Mets can rebuild and be ready to compete in 2014 or 2015, at which point Wright will still likely be a very good player. (I'm not sure how much I buy that) He seems to have shrugged off the blip in production from 2009-2011 and may be back to being an elite player. And if that is the case, then paying him $17 million a year is probably a bargain. Obviously in 5 or 6 years he won't be the player he is today, but $17 million is probably like 3.5 WAR production, which Wright is more than capable of.

The way I look at the Dickey trade is that it sucks that the Mets were in a position where it did make some sense to trade the reigning Cy Young, but considering where they are, it probably did, and they got really good value for him.

And for whatever its worth, the defensive metrics think last year was the best defensive year of his career. There are pretty large error bars on defensive numbers, so I'm not sure I'd be comfortable saying that, but I think he was a better defender last year than the prior years (playing without a broken back helps). Wright is my favorite player, so I'm sure I'm biased, but he was one of the 5 best players in the NL last year, and in the first fifth of this season, he's been one of the 5 best players in the NL as well. From 2005-2008 he was one of the 5 best players in the majors. I think he's going to retain a lot of value in the next few years, and $17 million really isn't a lot of money for a star player.