All that is true. And I have little doubt that he has the utmost confidence in his capabilities, and his ability to achieve his goal of playing in the NFL.
I do however think that it isn't an either-or / black and white decision -- not anymore, with NIL. If he wasn't able to earn money now, then it would kind of be a no-brainer. Go get paid, very little to prove, tough to top leading the nation in passing yardage / completions.
But on the other hand, if the skuttlebutt he's getting from the NFL indicates that he's in the round 6 / 7 or UFA, then he has a lot to gain by coming back.
First, he can earn a 7-figure NIL amount. Second, he gets to be the man for another season. And he gets to actually flip that narrative, come into the season with a lot of hype, and play his way into the top 3 rounds -- or even better. Think: Joe Burrow, who was rated as a 6th round pick after his junior season.
The money of being a higher draft pick might make waiting an attractive alternative, given that he's compensated now.
Of course, all that gets thrown out the window if he projects as a top 4 round draft pick. If that's the case, I think he should go.
Otherwise, I think he should probably return and roll the dice on his capabilities yet again, using our high profile schedule next season to catapult himself to the top of the draft boards.