The 5 to play 4 is pretty solid. What constitutes a season, less than 5 games played, is solid.
Solid based on what?
That wasn’t the basis of the ruling. A governing body can’t impose arbitrary, capricious, and contradictory rules, especially when those rules negatively impact commerce and the ability to earn.
How is 5 games a season, 4 games not a season, anything other than arbitrary? Who's it in the best interest of? And who is 5 to play 4 in the best interest of?
If you were explaining this system from scratch to an alien who just landed on Earth, what would you give as the reason the NCAA exists and the basis for these "solid" rules?
If Kyle goes to the League, I hope he lands in Minnesota. O'Connell is a great HC for him. Come in as QB3 with JJ McCarthy as QB1. Maybe Kyle beats him out in 2 or 3 years. They have a good OL, balanced attack and super receivers. Better to go to Minny as a UFA than one of the NYC teams in the 5th round.
I think it would be in his best interest to land with a coach who's good at developing QBs. Kansas City would be interesting. Could learn a year as QB3, then back up an early 30s QB who tends to get banged up most years. Probably gets a handful of games on tape years 2-3 and if he does well, gets a chance to start somewhere.
There is a chance that Kyle could do irreparable harm to his pro prospects coming back next season too with the schedule we play. I think he will end up going through the evaluation process regardless of what happens on the waiver appeal, and if he gets a high enough grade he'll be gone.
The odds of him playing himself into a first/second round pick next year are lower than him playing himself into a UFDA deal.
I would argue that $2M guaranteed right now and a UDFA deal is a better short AND long term outcome than being a 5th round pick right now.
$2M guaranteed, then $2.8M over three possibly with some guaranteed (250K-300K isn't unusual), control the situation you end up in. Ends up being $4.8M over four, maybe 48% of it guaranteed.
VS.
$4.4M over four, not guaranteed, no control over the situation you end up in.
Being able to pick your team from a list of suitors has a lot of upside, you can choose a coaching staff that's a good fit to develop you and/or a roster you're more likely to make.
Financially speaking I think coming back is clearly better unless he's going to be a third round pick or higher. That's before we even get into the front loaded nature of the money if he comes back, and that $2M can be invested and growing already.
Developmentally, Nixon being a great OC helps make the case for staying more enticing. Yeah he may get to spend more time at his craft in the NFL, but he's going to get waaaaay fewer reps.
He'll probably be running scout team, getting a handful of practice reps, and zero regular season reps. Maybe a game's worth of preseason reps. If he comes back he gets the lion's share of the reps.
And that's all comparing being a mid round pick to bring an UDFA after another year. It could also go the other way, and he could end up being a first rounder. Then it's not even close.