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Message: [QUOTE="OttoinGrotto, post: 1030754, member: 297"] But see, it is a terrible line of reasoning and is inherently flawed and misused - you can't give awards based on what we think will happen. Awards have to reflect real achievement. Otherwise, you're basing your assessment on the unknown. It doesn't matter what we think happens if a scenario is different or how likely it might actually be. At a certain point you have to deal with the absolutes of real events - award granting is the perfect time for assessment in that manner. That's been and likely will continue to be my big problem with the stat geek revolution of sports. Misapplied statistics are misapplied statistics. You want to use inferential arguments to hopefully predict the future, that's appropriate. Giving awards inferentially is not. [/QUOTE]