MGoBlog Preview

[SU2NASA]

http://mgoblog.com/content/death-above-syracuse

 

[raf4488]

I hope Beilien's scouting of Fair is the same as MGoBlog's. Sure, just put Glenn Robinson on CJ and forget about him.

 

[richard levy]

by this report, UM would have a tougher game against a high school team, we probably should not show up

 

[cusetown1]

I think that article was intended to be comical, right?

 

[rosconey]

WOW-what a load of dung

 

[Knicks411]

by this report, UM would have a tougher game against a high school team, we probably should not show up

Hard to reconcile that witrh the 1 point prediction

 

[CusefanATL]

i guess im the only 1 who thought that was a great preview albeit from the michigan side?

we really have a bunch of whiny fans.

 

[cusetown1]

i guess im the only 1 who thought that was a great preview albeit from the michigan side?

we really have a bunch of whiny fans.

I actually thought it was funny.

 

[SU2NASA]

i guess im the only 1 who thought that was a great preview albeit from the michigan side?

we really have a bunch of whiny fans.

I think it was a good preview, but I also think it's emblematic of the average Michigan fan that thinks they've become the Harlem Globetrotters and we're the Washington Generals.

 

[jekelish]

I hope Beilien's scouting of Fair is the same as MGoBlog's. Sure, just put Glenn Robinson on CJ and forget about him.

Seriously, CJ is "unusually crappy at the rim"? Has this guy ever watched SU play?

 

[cusetown1]

Seriously, CJ is "unusually crappy at the rim"? Has this guy ever watched SU play?

Are you whining? stop It! it was a beautifully written article.

 

[orangefog]

Seriously, CJ is "unusually crappy at the rim"? Has this guy ever watched SU play?

I think it is pretty clear that this guy just deals with statistics. Those statistics take into account the whole season, including our crappy stretch. The defense the past couple of weeks has been amazing, and the offense has been good at times. I am no expert on the Wolverines, but their defense is not their strength. Hopefully we can get a few guys going (praying for Dirty to come out on fire), and for the defense to stay at the high level. Can't wait for Saturday night.

 

[raf4488]

Seriously, CJ is "unusually crappy at the rim"? Has this guy ever watched SU play?

It seems like this guy has never watched us, but since he has a KenPom subscription he thinks he's able to write a thorough, statistically-oriented preview.

 

[OrangeMojo]

I think it was a good preview, but I also think it's emblematic of the average Michigan fan that thinks they've become the Harlem Globetrotters and we're the Washington Generals.

agree - the write-up seemed fine, although it was still trying to cling to their Big10 was so much better than any other conference nonsense

It's their fans comments that amused me. Reading those you'd think they were unstoppable all season and not 6-6 in their last 12 against B10 teams including only 2-1 against Penn State. Oh yeah, and if not for a complete collapse by Kansas they wouldn't even be in the final four - they make it sound like they handled KU easily.

 

[Cuse'91]

Honestly, this is an almost objective analysis, at least if you go purely on the statistics... BUT...
1. I think we are playing like a different team since BET...
And
2. Our conference stats are skewed because of that bad patch of games where we just lost our confidence/mojo... Without those games, we tie or outright win regular season title...

 

[jncuse]

Guy spins every statistic as much as he can - based on the narrative he was presenting Michigan should win by about 25.

To predict UM to win a tight one is a fair prediction. But the narrative presented should at least match that.

 

[orangenirvana]

For what it's worth, Pomeroy ran the numbers and suggests that even in the random realm of three-point shooting Syracuse's 2-3 zone has a real, negative impact on opponents, but one that may be masked by Syracuse's typically… er… unchallenging nonconference schedule and the Big East's usual shooter deficit.

Does anyone have access to the non-conference opponent RPI for both Michigan and Syracuse? I'd be curious how they compare. My guess is...they're not far off.

 

[RF2044]

Does anyone have access to the non-conference opponent RPI for both Michigan and Syracuse? I'd be curious how they compare. My guess is...they're not far off.

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2013/rpi

Overall, we have a higher RPI [#8 compared to #13] and SOS [we had the fourth hardest, michigan had the 21st hardest].

 

[Knicks411]

Using Pomeroy, we had a 201 non conf SOS, they were 107.

 

[Melancer46]

It really isn't that bad of a preview at all IMO. My few complaints:
1. It doesn't really mention how they match up defensively against us. It merely talks about how our players play, but doesn't talk about how we have a huge size mismatch at the guard position with Burke defending MCW or Triche; size advantage with Fair and Southerland, and while it mentions that our big men generally don't get opposing team's big men in foul trouble, and it mentions that MCW is good at getting to the free throw line, it doesn't mention that MCW can get their big men in foul trouble if they try to step up and stop him when he gets dribble penetration.

2. My other complaint is that it basically paints Syracuse as a team that struggled once it started playing legit Big East teams, and kinda paints a picture like our play in the BET and NCAA Tourny are outliers, which could potentially be true. However, it doesn't bring up the fact that their team is the same exact way, except they sucked in their conference tournament as well as in B1G play.

 

[RF2044]

And yet, they lost to Minnesota.

MINNESOTA!!!

 

[HoustonCuse]

It was fine, but it was completely predicated on Kenpom stats. That is a good tool to use but clearly there is so much more. Florida would have dominated this tournament if Kenpom was the be all and end all, yet Michigan beat them easily. Florida was comically superior by Kenpom analysis. Yet they base their entire comfort level on this game on a few selected Kenpom stats. They also seem to think the big east was a joke and our record there indicates that we aren't very good. 5 of our 7 reg season losses were to teams with Top10 Kenpom defenses. And the word is our offense is terrible. But UM has a dismal defense in comparison.

 

[Fly Rodder]

Middle of the pack 3P % D in conference play is a misleading stat because if a team makes 30% of its threes against the zone, it's not awful, but if 3s make up 45% of their shots versus a typical 25-30% it becomes a bigger deal.

Non-zone D:
56 FGA | 5/16 3s | 18/40 2s + 12 points from FTs = 63 points. Not bad, eh?

Same make percentages, more threes are launched:

Against 2-3:
56 FGA | 7/25 3s | 14/31 2s + same 12 points from FTs = 61 points

2 points less, which is the basis of Boeheim's zone philosophy. Plus, none of this takes into account steals and poorer two-point looks. Percentage of shots made is not the proper way to look at the Syracuse zone (unless you want to lose).

 

[stuckinbig11]

If the ball is not oblong, Michigan fans don't know (or care) much about the game. Let them blather on.

 

[orangefog]

If the ball is not oblong, Michigan fans don't know (or care) much about the game. Let them blather on.

Then they would love my Uncle Louis. He says he was born that way and he doesn't mind showing people. Sounds like he would be a hit in Michigan.