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[QUOTE="IthacaMatt, post: 4802017, member: 405"]
That left me a little less impressed with his early season forecasts.  Not really any analytics of the impact of change in coaches, just statistical average that teams get a little worse, and the best teams get worse by a greater degree than average teams, and he uses 5 year program historical average.

Or really, not too much thought to transfers and how they fit a new program.  He didn't mention that at all, just that transfers are much harder to predict their contributions than returning players already in a program, who are generally projected to improve from year to year at a certain historical rate for that program.

Eh, I thought that he metrics were [I]more advanced[/I] than that.  Stats maybe have gotten more sophisticated than his model.

He spends about half the time explaining that his model is not predictive, beyond how a team will do in its next game, well, and yeah, maybe predict the end of the year, well, of course it's based on the end of the previous year, but still ...
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