SWC75
Bored Historian
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CINCINNATI Saturday, 11/3/12 TBA at Cincinnati, Ohio Local Radio (TK99)
Cincinnati and the departed West Virginia have been the best programs in the league since it re-invented itself the last time in 2005. They were 10-3 last year but will be rebuilding this year. They have to replace conference offensive player of the year Isaiah Pead and quarterback Zach Collaros. The new quarterback has a fabulous name: Munchie LeGaux and a fabulous, if not always accurate, arm and quick feet. He started three games last year. It’s unclear who will replace Pead. Anthony McClung has a good name for a receiver and is a good receiver as well, with 49 catches for 683 yard and 6 scores. Like Connecticut, they had a strong rushing defense, (6th in the country) and lousy pass defense, (99th). They had an outstanding +12 turnover margin. They lost the other co-defensive player of the year, tackle Derek Wolfe and first team all conference linebacker J. K. Schaefer. They have the league’s best punter Pat O’Donnell and Ralph Abernathy is an excellent kick returner.
Two years ago they were generous with the turnovers and we won easily 31-7 in a down year for the Bearcats. This will be another down year and a winnable game. It may depend simply on how the teams are playing at the time and the level of their confidence in themselves.
LOUISVILLE Saturday, 11/10/12 TBA Carrier Dome Local Radio (TK99)
The Cardinals are the odds-on favorite to win the conference, despite being only 7-6 last year. They were 5-2 in the conference with a very young team. Their coach, Charley Strong is a “hot commodity” right now and is likely to take the first really big-time job he can get. They will certainly be offered. Teddy Bridgewater became a star as a true freshman quarterback last year. He passed for 14 scores and ran for 4 more in ten games. The guy he replaced, Dominque Brown, switched to running back and led the tam with 533 yards. Strong went with three freshmen at wide receiver, Eli Rogers, Michaelee Harris and DeVante Parker and all were good. Four starters return on the offensive line. They had a “strong” defense last year- 17th in scoring, 23rd in yard surrendered, 10th in rushing yards. They did give up 20 passing TDs. Marcus Smith and Lorenzo Mauddin are pass-rushing ends. Strong was a defensive coordinator for Florida’s national title teams before coming to Louisville. He’s also an outstanding recruiter and has had the top recruiting class in the conference the last two years, full of prized recruits from Florida.
We have them in the Dome but this will be a tough ride. The Cardinals have not only beaten us on the scoreboard but bullied us around the field the last couple of years and, unlike Syracuse they have gotten better each year. We will have to be playing well and with confidence to pull off the upset.
MISSOURI Saturday, 11/17/12 TBA at Columbia, Mo. Local Radio (TK99)
Missouri is the model for rebuilding a once-proud program. Years ago they were one of the better programs in the country under Don Farout, Dan Devine and then Warren Powers, they had 13 straight losing seasons from 1984-1996 and three more from 1999-2002. Gary Pinkel came in and kept the same staff around him as they went from 4-7 to 5-7 to 8-5, fell back to 5-6, then moved forward again to 7-5, 8-5 and 12-2 in 2007. Since then they’ve gone 10-3, 8-5, 10-3 and 8-5 and are once again a respected program. Continuity, baby! In our Bizarro world, they are now an SEC team, (along with Texas A&M). They are in the SEC East, if that makes any sense.
They had one of the top quarterback-running back combos in the country last year in James Franklin and Henry Josey but both were hurt in the off-season. Josey won’t play at all this year but Franklin is expected to be back for the opener. Last year he passed for 2865 yards and 21 scores and ran for 981 more with 15 scores. Kid’s a superstar. Kendial Lawrence was the starting RB for the opener last year but got hurt, opening the door for Josey, who averaged 8.1 yards per carry on the way to 1168 yards. Now the door is open for Lawrence. T.J. Moe has 146 catches in the last two years and freshman Dorial Green-Beckham set a national high school record for receiving yards with 6,353. He came to Missouri to be part of a high-powered offense and he will be. The Tigers were 94th in the country in pass defense but they were facing no-huddle spread offenses almost every time out. End Brad Madison was all-conference and they get their linebackers and secondary back in tact. If they have to punt, they have a good one in Trey Barrow, who averaged an astonishing 44.8 yards per boot.
People making predictions this year have been putting “L”s next to the USC game and this one and looking elsewhere for the W’s. Unless we are on a real roll at this point in the season, they are probably right.
TEMPLE Friday, 11/23/12 TBA at Philadelphia, Pa. ABC or ESPN or ESPN2
The Owls used to be the twin patsies of the Big East with Rutgers. They got booted out of the conference because nobody was going to their games. They moved to the MAC and rebuilt the program, first under Al Golden, who is now at Miami (Florida) and now former Pasqualoni aide Steve Addazio. Now they’ve been invited back in in the wake of the recent defections. They will be our last game in the Big East. In their journey into and back out of the woods they have gone 0-11, 1-11, 4-8, 5-7, 9-4, 8-4 and 9-4 against most sub-BCS completion. Now they are back and we will see if they can keep winning.
Chris Coyer started their last four games at quarterback and threw for 463 yards and rushed for 562 more. They lost Bernard Pierce, a tailback who only ran for 1481 yards and 27 scores but have Matt Brown, who rushed for 916 at 5.9 yards a carry. (And our second leading rusher gained 134 yards!). They lost their three top receivers and 4/5 of the offensive line. They had terrific defensive numbers last year, (#3 scoring, #12 yards, #27 rushing, #15 passing) but lost their top four tacklers. Brandon McManus is a good place kicker and an excellent kick-off man.
Temple will be rebuilding but they may be rebuilt when we play them in the last game of the season- which it could be if we can’t get to 6 wins.
Northwestern will be a high-scoring toss-up game. USC will be along afternoon. Stony Brook is a land-mine. But if we beat them I think we’ll beat Minnesota and Pittsburgh. Rutgers will be tough but I think we beat Connecticut. South Florida will be tougher but Cincinnati is vulnerable. I don’t see us beating Louisville or Missouri but Temple will be beatable. We could do as well as 7-5 but I think that’s our ceiling. That’s OK It will get us into a bowl game and get Marrone his contract extension. There might be room for one slip-up along the way. But you never know, we could beat someone we aren’t supposed to beat, too. We did last year. We can’t afford to play sloppy ball or fall apart down the stretch as we did last year. As amazing as it may seem, I think the key game is Stony Brook. If we lose that one, it could spell the end of the Marrone Era. If we win it, we have a chance for a good comeback year.
Cincinnati and the departed West Virginia have been the best programs in the league since it re-invented itself the last time in 2005. They were 10-3 last year but will be rebuilding this year. They have to replace conference offensive player of the year Isaiah Pead and quarterback Zach Collaros. The new quarterback has a fabulous name: Munchie LeGaux and a fabulous, if not always accurate, arm and quick feet. He started three games last year. It’s unclear who will replace Pead. Anthony McClung has a good name for a receiver and is a good receiver as well, with 49 catches for 683 yard and 6 scores. Like Connecticut, they had a strong rushing defense, (6th in the country) and lousy pass defense, (99th). They had an outstanding +12 turnover margin. They lost the other co-defensive player of the year, tackle Derek Wolfe and first team all conference linebacker J. K. Schaefer. They have the league’s best punter Pat O’Donnell and Ralph Abernathy is an excellent kick returner.
Two years ago they were generous with the turnovers and we won easily 31-7 in a down year for the Bearcats. This will be another down year and a winnable game. It may depend simply on how the teams are playing at the time and the level of their confidence in themselves.
LOUISVILLE Saturday, 11/10/12 TBA Carrier Dome Local Radio (TK99)
The Cardinals are the odds-on favorite to win the conference, despite being only 7-6 last year. They were 5-2 in the conference with a very young team. Their coach, Charley Strong is a “hot commodity” right now and is likely to take the first really big-time job he can get. They will certainly be offered. Teddy Bridgewater became a star as a true freshman quarterback last year. He passed for 14 scores and ran for 4 more in ten games. The guy he replaced, Dominque Brown, switched to running back and led the tam with 533 yards. Strong went with three freshmen at wide receiver, Eli Rogers, Michaelee Harris and DeVante Parker and all were good. Four starters return on the offensive line. They had a “strong” defense last year- 17th in scoring, 23rd in yard surrendered, 10th in rushing yards. They did give up 20 passing TDs. Marcus Smith and Lorenzo Mauddin are pass-rushing ends. Strong was a defensive coordinator for Florida’s national title teams before coming to Louisville. He’s also an outstanding recruiter and has had the top recruiting class in the conference the last two years, full of prized recruits from Florida.
We have them in the Dome but this will be a tough ride. The Cardinals have not only beaten us on the scoreboard but bullied us around the field the last couple of years and, unlike Syracuse they have gotten better each year. We will have to be playing well and with confidence to pull off the upset.
MISSOURI Saturday, 11/17/12 TBA at Columbia, Mo. Local Radio (TK99)
Missouri is the model for rebuilding a once-proud program. Years ago they were one of the better programs in the country under Don Farout, Dan Devine and then Warren Powers, they had 13 straight losing seasons from 1984-1996 and three more from 1999-2002. Gary Pinkel came in and kept the same staff around him as they went from 4-7 to 5-7 to 8-5, fell back to 5-6, then moved forward again to 7-5, 8-5 and 12-2 in 2007. Since then they’ve gone 10-3, 8-5, 10-3 and 8-5 and are once again a respected program. Continuity, baby! In our Bizarro world, they are now an SEC team, (along with Texas A&M). They are in the SEC East, if that makes any sense.
They had one of the top quarterback-running back combos in the country last year in James Franklin and Henry Josey but both were hurt in the off-season. Josey won’t play at all this year but Franklin is expected to be back for the opener. Last year he passed for 2865 yards and 21 scores and ran for 981 more with 15 scores. Kid’s a superstar. Kendial Lawrence was the starting RB for the opener last year but got hurt, opening the door for Josey, who averaged 8.1 yards per carry on the way to 1168 yards. Now the door is open for Lawrence. T.J. Moe has 146 catches in the last two years and freshman Dorial Green-Beckham set a national high school record for receiving yards with 6,353. He came to Missouri to be part of a high-powered offense and he will be. The Tigers were 94th in the country in pass defense but they were facing no-huddle spread offenses almost every time out. End Brad Madison was all-conference and they get their linebackers and secondary back in tact. If they have to punt, they have a good one in Trey Barrow, who averaged an astonishing 44.8 yards per boot.
People making predictions this year have been putting “L”s next to the USC game and this one and looking elsewhere for the W’s. Unless we are on a real roll at this point in the season, they are probably right.
TEMPLE Friday, 11/23/12 TBA at Philadelphia, Pa. ABC or ESPN or ESPN2
The Owls used to be the twin patsies of the Big East with Rutgers. They got booted out of the conference because nobody was going to their games. They moved to the MAC and rebuilt the program, first under Al Golden, who is now at Miami (Florida) and now former Pasqualoni aide Steve Addazio. Now they’ve been invited back in in the wake of the recent defections. They will be our last game in the Big East. In their journey into and back out of the woods they have gone 0-11, 1-11, 4-8, 5-7, 9-4, 8-4 and 9-4 against most sub-BCS completion. Now they are back and we will see if they can keep winning.
Chris Coyer started their last four games at quarterback and threw for 463 yards and rushed for 562 more. They lost Bernard Pierce, a tailback who only ran for 1481 yards and 27 scores but have Matt Brown, who rushed for 916 at 5.9 yards a carry. (And our second leading rusher gained 134 yards!). They lost their three top receivers and 4/5 of the offensive line. They had terrific defensive numbers last year, (#3 scoring, #12 yards, #27 rushing, #15 passing) but lost their top four tacklers. Brandon McManus is a good place kicker and an excellent kick-off man.
Temple will be rebuilding but they may be rebuilt when we play them in the last game of the season- which it could be if we can’t get to 6 wins.
Northwestern will be a high-scoring toss-up game. USC will be along afternoon. Stony Brook is a land-mine. But if we beat them I think we’ll beat Minnesota and Pittsburgh. Rutgers will be tough but I think we beat Connecticut. South Florida will be tougher but Cincinnati is vulnerable. I don’t see us beating Louisville or Missouri but Temple will be beatable. We could do as well as 7-5 but I think that’s our ceiling. That’s OK It will get us into a bowl game and get Marrone his contract extension. There might be room for one slip-up along the way. But you never know, we could beat someone we aren’t supposed to beat, too. We did last year. We can’t afford to play sloppy ball or fall apart down the stretch as we did last year. As amazing as it may seem, I think the key game is Stony Brook. If we lose that one, it could spell the end of the Marrone Era. If we win it, we have a chance for a good comeback year.
