My 2015 SU Football Preview: The Offense | Syracusefan.com

My 2015 SU Football Preview: The Offense

SWC75

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OFFENSE


The fact that last year’s offensive problems were not simply the result of injuries is underscored by the fact that that Shafer felt the necessity of essentially firing his offensive coordinator, George MacDonald, in mid-season. MacDonald, like most coaches at Syracuse, had been prompted to a job beyond what he had held previously and in his case it proved to be his level of incompetence. It was a difficult decision because MacDonald was also the team’s top recruiter, which was the reputation he had had when he came to Syracuse. He came here because he wanted a coordinator’s job and was angry when he lost it. He’s now moved on to North Carolina State, who we will play in our penultimate game this year. But he’s not a coordinator there, either: he’s a receiver’s coach.


MacDonald’s offense seemed to consist largely of poorly-designed bubble screens, which went to stationary receivers planted next to the side line with single blockers out in front of them. The blocker would be over-powered by multiple defenders and then the receiver. Other teams ran screens against us to a moving receiver with two blockers out in front with considerable success. Another problem we have recently found out about was that MacDonald never varied the snap count, meaning that the defense always knew exactly when the play would begin and could time it impeccably.


For the second straight year, our leading receiver never found the end zone, something that had last previously happened in 1973, Ben Schwartzwalder’s last year. Early in the second period in the opener against Villanova, (played on the 29th of August), running back Prince-Tyson Gulley broke through the line of scrimmage, looked up and saw no one between him and the goal line. He ran 65 yards for a touchdown. It was the last touchdown any Syracuse running back ran for that season. They went 11 1/2 games without another, never running for a touchdown in any fall month.


Instead our quarterbacks did much of the ball carrying, especially when Terrell Hunt was in there. Hunt a big dude at 6-3, 234, played in only 5 games but was our third leading rusher with 292 yards and 6TDs This is part of the folly of the single back backfield: the only running alternative is your quarterback, the guy you least want to lose to injury. Hunt was getting pretty beat up, although his injury actually came on a sack. It may have affected his throwing, which was awful. The record shows he did complete 57% of his passes but that’s not exceptional these days and the vast majority of his passes were short shots, such as those bubble screens that made the fans cringe. In 145 passes he produced one touchdown pass and four interceptions.


For a long time our punter, Riley Dixon, was tied with Hunt for the most touchdown passes with one, thanks to a fake field goal, (he is our holder). Eventually, A. J. Long passed them both with 4TD passes vs. 8 interceptions. Two other quarterbacks, Austin Wilson and Mitch Kimble, produced no TDs and 5 interceptions, giving us a total of 6TD passes and 17 interceptions for the season. Long and Kimble did manage to run for three touchdowns between them and defensive end Ron Thompson, who was placed in the backfield for a goal line situation, got another for a total of 12 rushing touchdowns. That gave us 18 offensive touchdowns in 12 games. We got none on kick returns. The defense manufactured four touchdowns for a total of 22 for the team. We averaged 17 points per game.


There are 125 Major college teams so the 63rd ranked team is an ‘average’ team. Last year the 63rd ranked scoring team was Rice, which averaged 29 points a game. We’re in an era when to beat an average team you’ve got to score 30 points. If you don’t and still win, you’ve either got a great defense or you were lucky. In Syracuse’s history we’ve had exactly nine teams that averaged 30 points per game. They are: the 1904 team that beat Manhattan 144-0, (and Allegheny and Clarkson by 69-0 each); the 1916 team, who opened their schedule against something called “All-Syracuse, (57-0) and then beat Ohio U., Franklin & Marshall and Susquehanna by a combined 175-0), the 1959 national champions, the undefeated 1987 team, the four Donovan McNabb teams and Ryan Nassib’s senior year, when we finally got the passing game going, (temporarily) .We just had a national championship game between teams that came in with their defenses giving up 22 points a game each. That used to be bad defense. Now it’s national championship defense.


It’s a new era. What is happening now in football is what happened to basketball in the 1940’s, when they started that decade, it was about winning 40-30 games. By the end of the decade, it was about winning 70-60 games and teams that were still trying to win 40-30 games were losing big. In football, we’ve gone from trying to win 21-14 games to trying to win 35-28 games and if we are still trying to win games 21-14, we are going to lose big, too.


The guy in charge of giving us an up-to-date offense is Tim Lester. He has been our quarterbacks coach. Prior to that he’d been the head coach and offensive coordinator at Elmhurst College, a Division III in Illinois. In his five years there they won 33 games and lost 19 while averaging 28 points per game, including 10-2 and 31 points a game in his final year there, 2012. That team reached the second round of the DIII championship tournament, losing to St. Thomas of Minnesota, who went to the finals that year. Some have doubted that success on the DIII level will be meaningful now that he’s coaching a DI offense but others say that offensive schemes can work at any level if they are good ones. He’ll do the same thing only now with better talent. But they will be facing better talent as well. Besides alternating snap counts, Lester isn’t going to try to overwhelm the opposition by the speed with which we get off plays. This won’t work if the plays don’t work. Lester is going to search for mismatches and try to exploit them. He also wants more “downfield” running. I think it’s the blockers who make the field tilt in the direction you want it to.


One of the things the team has to overcome is the staunch conservatism of the head coach. Scott Shafer is known as an aggressive chance-taking defensive coach who likes to pressure the offense to try to force big plays. But on offense he’s played it so close to the vest one gets the impression he actually prefers to have his defensive unit out there. Nowhere was it more apparent than in the season’s last game, where we were down 7-21 with about 7 minutes left. We had the ball on the Boston College 40, 4th and 6. Shafer punted, saying that he hoped to get a turnover or force a punt. It sounded like this is his idea of offense. That thought is scary.


Any offense begins with the quarterback and we saw plenty of them last year. Terrell Hunt eliminated himself from the first game by slugging a Villanova player who had tackled him roughly. It brought into question his leadership ability, or at least his ability to keep his poise in a crisis, (which is largely the same thing.) As described above he ran the ball well: he lacks speed but can make his way through a crowded field deftly and when contact becomes inevitable, he can deliver it as well as receive it. But his passing must improve dramatically for our offense to function.


Hunt’s first back-up last year was Austin Wilson, who has NFL size (6-3, 214) and NFL arm strength but who showed little touch and accuracy, throwing four interceptions to no touchdowns. A concussion that was the result of a blind-side sack vs. Louisville didn’t help. He was by nature immobile and added nothing to the running game. A.J. Long was our third quarterback. He was a true freshman, full of confidence, very generously listed at 5-11 170. We were reminded that Russell Wilson wasn’t very big, (He’s a legit 5-11 and weighs 206 pounds). Long proved to be quicker than Hunt or Wilson and a better passer than either of them. He was “thrown to the wolves” with his first start being against eventual national champion Florida State in the Dome, completing 16 of 27 passes for 167 yards, 2 scores and 2 interceptions. Then he threw for 307 yards and 2 scores vs. NC State. Clemson’s defense roughed him up: 12 of 27 for 82 yards with 2 picks. He missed the Duke game due to a “nerve issue” in his throwing arm. He came back for the Pitt and BC games but wasn’t the same, completing 17 of 37 for 208 yards and 2 interceptions in those two games. Then it was announced that he’s redshirting this year. Then he wasn’t sure. He’s presently listed as third string on the pre-season depth chart. He’s been practicing with the team but hurt his hand.


The fourth string guy last, year, Mitch Kimble, transferred to be replaced by a couple of interesting prospects from places we don’t normally get recruits from. One is Eric Dungy, a 6-4-195 athlete with a strong arm from Oregon. What’s he doing here? Last year he told an interviewer: "The Pac 12 would be great. If not somewhere like Duke back East that has a good academic program and where I can make a name for myself." He picked Syracuse as the place to do that. Another is Kenterius Womack from Alabama. He’s slightly smaller at 6-3, 185 but even more athletic. So much so, they are trying him at other positions. Meanwhile, Dungy has been moving up the depth chart and may wind up as Hunt’s back-up, which means he’s also likely to be his successor. Also on board is Zach Mahoney, a junior college transfer from Illinois. He’s a sophomore and he’s listed as our 5th string quarterback. Last year, when even Kimble got hurt, we were faced with the prospect of having our punter, Riley Dixon, step behind center. We’re not going to run out of quarterbacks this year, whatever happens this season.


Quarterbacks are often described as playmakers. Actually, when a quarterback has to “make the play”, the offense isn’t really functioning well. A quarterback is a conduit for the ball from the center to the real playmakers- the guys who take the ball and run with it and score the touchdowns. When your quarterbacks run for as many touchdowns as they pass for and score three times as many touchdowns as your running backs, (as happened last year), your offense just isn’t working. You have to surround your quarterback with talent so he doesn’t have to make the plays himself for the offense to really get going.


Part of the problem was the type of receivers recruited in the Marrone era. Doug clearly preferred big targets and we had some tall guys with average speed or less running patterns for us. This is an era where offenses tend to run short routes with a high completion percentage and fewer sacks and turnovers and rely on the receivers to turn their route into big plays with speed and elusiveness. If you can get a big guy who can do that, great. But we had relatively stationary targets who rarely got much farther when they did catch the ball. Last year the recruiting started to turn in another direction but the veteran receivers were still in the Marrone mold.


Our leading receiver was 6-3 209 Jarrod West, who caught 49 passes but never scored. He’s gone but 6-2 212 Ben Lewis, who caught 24 passes and scored once is back. 6-3 216 Ashton Broyld had led the team in 2013 with 52 receptions but never scored. He was hurt most of last year and has now left the team, (it’s almost symbolic of our problems that he is the regional cover boy on Athlon’s preview edition, as if he was the closest thing they could find to a star on the team- and he’s no longer on the team). 6-4 206 Adrian Flemming finished out an injury plagued career with 15 receptions, none for scores. 6-4 201 Quinta Funderburke was a blue-chip recruit who transferred from Arkansas and had a cow-chip career here in which he caught 3 passes and, of course, never scored.


One of the guys who was supposed to change things was Brisley Estime, a 5-9 176 jitterbug with the speed and moves to make any play a big one, as he showed with a long punt return that set up the winning score in the Texas Bowl two years ago. His problem is that he’s fragile. He keeps getting hurt and it always seems to be his main strength- his ankles and feet. The biggest positive thing that happened last year was the emergence of Steve Ishmael, who has good size at 6-2 184 but also has speed and the ability to catch the ball. He was the one guy we had on offense who looked like he could play for anybody we played. He caught 27 passes for an impressive 15.4 average and led the team with 3TDs, (half the team’s total). He should at least double those numbers this season. Everybody’s been waiting to see Jamal Custis, who is a very big target at 6-6 225 and who was clocked in an amazing 4.37 40 yard dash in high school. High school 40 times tend to be fish stories but if he was anywhere near that fast at that size, he’s a remarkable athlete. People wondered why he wasn’t playing more last year. It makes you wonder if he has trouble catching the ball or learning the offense. Or maybe he was just a normal freshman, if a big, fast one. Adly Enoicy has similar size (6-5 227), is fast but not quite that fast and played even less. Still, they could both be a big part of our future, maybe this year.


Ben Lewis is the best blocker among the receivers. He showed the ability to catch the ball in a crowd and break tackles. He’s a football player. Alvin Cornelius (6-1 193) has impressed people in practice the last couple of years and will finally get his turn. Sean Avant 5-10 203 will be in the mix but he always seems to be battling injuries.


Syracuse’s scheme includes something called the “H” back. It doesn’t mean “halfback” as in the classic pro set of my youth, (which I still think it the best offensive set ever devised). I’d call it a “W” back because it’s hard to tell what it is. The “H” back is expected to catch the ball, to run the ball on running plays or pitch-outs and to block, not only for other receivers but for other running backs. The list of players assigned to this positon suggests confusion more than anything else. Last year the 6-3 216 Broyld and the 5-9 176 Estime were to share the positon before they got hurt. This year Lewis, at 6-2, 212 and 5-11 170 Erv Phillips are the top two guys. The only way any sense can be made of it would be to use the big guys when you are going to do some power running or you want a “possession” receiver in the slot and use the small guys when you want to spread the defense out and hit them in the gaps, giving the quarterback as many positions as possible. The problem is, when you alternate very different players at a position, it suggests what you are planning to do to the defense.


I like our running backs. Devante McFarland has decent size, (6-0 193) and speed and is nifty picking his way through defenders to find an opening. He had an 86 yard non-scoring run vs. Wake Forest. Everybody has raved about George Morris, a back we got out of Georgia a couple of years ago. He’s the same size and speed as McFarland. He’s gained 435 yards in two years to McFarland’s 461 but DeVante has averaged 6.1 yards per carry to 3.8 for Morris, who has to start showing those practice moves in games. Erv Phillips showed some moves and some speed in bursts last year that got the fans excited. He looked like a sort of running back version of Estime. The thought of having them both out there at once, (and healthy), is fun but Phillip’s numbers weren’t all that eye popping: 4.3 yards per carry and 3.8 per catch, (and, of course he didn’t score). But he sure looks interesting.


Also interesting are our three tailback recruits. Jordan Fredericks, (5-10, 205), was the player of the year in New York State. Dontae Strickland (5-11 180), from talent rich New Jersey, was rated higher than him nationally and then there’s Tyrone Perkins,(6-0 175), who missed his senior year due to an ACL tear but was descried as a “steal” by one recruiting expert. Looking at their film, they all look pretty dynamic. (Frankly they look at least as good as Robert Washington). Fredericks seems more of a straight-ahead runner while Strickland and Perkins are more “gliders” who make dazzling open-field moves. But all three combine power and speed and could become feature backs here. (Their speed and elusiveness might be more useful in a wide-open offense than Washington’s power-running style.)


Surround your quarterback with guys who can make plays and you will be amazed at how much more talented he seems. You’ll also be amazed at how much smarter your coach seems. But nobody seems smart or talented if the line isn’t opening holes or protecting the quarterback. It was really our offensive line that turned around the program back in the 80’s. Then we had a long period where our playmakers were top quality but the line was not so and it held us back. Then Greg Robinson came in and everything changed. Nothing was top quality and the line was horrible. When Doug Marrone came in the former All-East offensive tackle was determined that his team would have a strong line and he built us one, which was huge key to the success we had in winning three bowl games in four years. Not only did we have some outstanding individuals like Justin Pugh and Sean Hickey but we always seemed to have 3-4 good linemen coming back to help the new guy(s) perform up to their level.


But last year, injuries cut down the offensive line as if by a machine gun. All the starters got hurt and all the reserves got hurt and line coach Tim Doast had to put together a line with gum, spit and duct tape. One silver lining, (the only one), was that in playing a lot of guys, we now have a lot of guys who have played, so maybe the depth will be better this year. But one wonders if the continuity of having 3-4 returnees from proud, successful lines has now been broken. At least we will have four seniors and a junior eyeing the defensive line before the snap. LT Ivan Foy, LG Nick Robinson and center Rob Trudo have seen a lot of action, although Trudo has not been a center before. RT Omari Palmer, the one junior has also played a lot. RG Seamus Shanley is a surprise: he was a walk-on from West Genesee High School. Behind them are two freshman, a sophomore and a junior.


One thing I like is their size: there isn’t too much of it by modern standards. Foy was listed at 318 pounds last year. Now he’s at 280. Robinson has increased in size from 281 to 302. Trudo has moved from 292 pounds to 301. Palmer was 316. He’s now 305. Shanley is 281. That’s a current average of 294. Once upon a time that would be huge but it’s an era of 320 pound linemen. I prefer them strong but quick. I remember that line recruited after the Cherry Bowl back in the 80’s averaged 275 per man. They got bigger each year but they were never so effective as they were in in their first couple of years. The team’s record went from 11-0-1 to 10-2 to 8-4 to 7-4-2 and the increasing size and decreasing mobility of the linemen was a big factor in that. The Broncos have been famous for years for having one of the smallest but most effective lines in the NFL. It may be that our line will prove effective because they aren’t carrying excess baggage.


Given reasonable luck with injuries, we should certainly be better on offense, (we could hardly be worse). But we have a long way to go to become average and will have to be better than average to make up for what we’ve lost on defense, (see below).
 
Here some stats on our offensive output in past years:


YEAR 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Rush 164.6 (89) 207.3 (18) 174.7 (41) 188.8 (34) 189.4 (26)

Pass 171.2 (88) 171.0 (92) 154.8 (98) 187.7 (79) 180.3 (91)

Total 335.8 (80) 378.3 (52) 329.4 (93) 376.4 (54) 369.7 (70)

Scoring 25.5 (64) 26.7 (51) 25.7 (69) 28.9 (45) 26.6 (62)


YEAR 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Rush 178.7 (31) 106.5 (105) 106.9 (97) 62.7 (118) 148.7 (55)

Pass 170.1 (100) 150.8 (105) 157.1 (103) 229.2 (55) 121.5 (113)

Total 349.0 (78) 257.4 (115) 264.0 (110) 291.9 (114) 270.2 (114)

Scoring 23.9 (74) 13.8 (114) 17.04 (102) 16.4 (116) 18.1 (108)


YEAR 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Rush 126.6 (87) 140.2 (76) 120.4 (95) 187.0 (40) 194.8 (38)

Pass 203.8 (78) 182.7 (91) 227.8 (65) 289.0 (29) 182.0 (102)

Total 330.4 (94) 322.9 (97) 348.2 (90) 476.0 (17) 376.8 (85)

Scoring 21.2 (78) 22.2 (93) 24.2 (84) 30.0 (55) 22.7 (98)


YEAR 2014

Rush 145.8 (90)

Pass 184.1 (103)

Total 329.9 (113)

Scoring 17.1 (118)
 

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