My 2016 SU Football preview - Part 1: The Situation | Syracusefan.com

My 2016 SU Football preview - Part 1: The Situation

SWC75

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First, regarding my avatar change: The image if from my favorite-all-time TV series, “The Fugitive”. The man is Richard Kimble, who is looking forward but isn’t sure exactly what he sees. Is it the one-armed man, and possible salvation or is Lt. Gerard, and possible disaster? I don’t know what we are going to see this fall so this image came to mind.


The Glorious History of the Carrier Dome

Everything changed when the Carrier Dome finally opened in 1980. Athletic Director Jake Crouthamel took one look at the new SU football palace and realized it was the ideal place for wide-open football. Instead of the old Ben Schwartzwalder concept of dominating the line of scrimmage and wearing out the other team with a powerful rushing attack, then passing over the heads of the defenders when they crept up to defend the line of scrimmage, now we were going to use the pass to open up the defense, forcing them to cover everyone and every spot on the field, which is, of course impossible, and then hitting them in the gaps that would open up in the defense when they tried to do it anyway. And he also realized that playing an exciting, wide-open and at the time unique brand of football would allow us to be a national recruiter, not just limited to kids who were aware of the program because they happened to grow up in this area of the country. Instead we’d recruit top talent from sea to shining sea who would come here to play in this offense and do it in this building. So Jake went out and got a coach who wanted to reinvent the game using the pass and off we went into the wild, blue yonder.

Our opponents never knew what hit them that first year. We scored over 50 points five times, waxing one poor opponent 83-7. People scoffed at our numbers, saying we were a gimmick team with a weak schedule but they were all paying attention in the bowl game when we turned a 14-34 deficit into a thrilling 46-45 win with a hail marry on the last play of the game. Our quarterback blew away school and NCAA records, completing 64% of his passes for 4,571 yards and 47 touchdowns. We led the nation in scoring with 47 points a game.

Not only were SU fans thrilled but there were more of them than ever before. People were coming down the Thruway from east and west and clogging 81 from north and south to get to the Dome to see the spectacle. The new stadium held 50,000 fans and that’s how many were there each and every game. The opponent didn’t matter: they came to see Syracuse play. And the coaching staff logged record airline miles going to all the top quarterbacks, receivers and running backs to get them to come to Syracuse. But the linemen, linebackers and defensive backs were listening too, They knew that a high scoring offense was paradise for a defensive player. They could concentrate on making big plays, knowing that if they gave up a few big plays, ti would matter because any mistakes would be over-whelmed by our offense.

The beat went on and in 1984, we broke through with our second national championship, going 12-0 and beating mighty Michigan in the big bowl game, 24-17. They had the athletes to keep up with our big-time playmakers but by now we’d recruited so many players we could stop them, too, and beat them anyway.

We kept rolling up big scores, winning a game 82-28 in 1988, another 95-21 in in 1989 and 84-21 in 1990. When would we hit 100 points? Our quarterbacks kept putting up huge numbers and we got our second Heisman Trophy winner in 1989, (63%, 4,699 and 46TDs) and our third in 1990, (64%, 5188 yards, 41TDs). Our quarterbacks didn’t do well in the pros and people complained they were “system” quarterbacks, who could put up great numbers in the Syracuse system, surrounded by Syracuse talent but when they were given a chance to play on Sunday, they turned out to be mediocre. SU fans didn’t mind. If we had a system that could turn mediocre quarterbacks into Heisman winners, good for us!

Other schools tried to imitate Syracuse. They sent coaches here to attend our camps and practices. Our coaches made big money conducting clinics around the country. We lost coaches, even a couple of head coaches who tried to perform the Syracuse miracle at other schools or in the NFL. But no one could quite duplicate the atmosphere of the Dome- the always dry, fast field, the perfect weather regardless of what was happening outside and the 50,000 screaming fans that made the “loud house” so intimidating. We led the nation in passing 19 times and in scoring 15 times.

Then there were the great games. The greatest was surely the2006 bowl win over Oklahoma , 43-42 using a hook-and-lateral for the touchdowns and the old statue of liberty play for the two point conversion that won it. That was one of 8 games we won where the other team scored 40+ points. There were scores like 62-45, 67-56 and 69-67. Nobody had more fun than Syracuse fans. Each year there were half serious bets about which Syracuse team- our football team or Jim Boeheim’s basketball team- would score more points.

Those packed houses and the frequent, highly-rated TV appearances caused money to poor into the University, both directly from the football team but also indirectly because the University got a three hour infomercial every Saturday. This allowed the school to make sure Syracuse had state of the art facilities for its golden-goose sports teams. Whenever somebody else upgraded beyond us, the advantage would be short-lived. Recruits who came here were dazzled and couldn’t wait to get here to score touchdowns in front of all those screaming fans.

Of course we went to bowls every year: even in a down year, the bowl committees salivated over our offense and the TV ratings it produced. But we didn’t just make minor bowl games: we were in the Orange Bowl 6 times, the Sugar Bowl 4 times, the Fiesta Bowl 5 times and even went to the Rose Bowl once.

Over time, SU coaches realized that their wide open offense didn’t have to be just a passing offense: we could run the ball as well or better than the running teams by using the pass to set up the run. The breakdowns of SU’s yardage gained in this decade tell the story: 2010 286 yards per game rushing, 245 passing. 2011: 236-352, 2012: 232-341, 2013: 260-360; 2014: 216-366; 2015: 327-290. Cover the pass, we’ll run on you. Cover the run, we’ll pass on you. If we have better running personnel in one season, we can do that. If we have better passing personnel we do that. As long you are spread out, we can do what we want. How do you stop that?

This made our offense even more dynamic and gave us the versatility we needed to be perennial national championship contenders. Our 2010 and 2014 teams both played for the title and lost. But there’s always next year.

Meanwhile, every time SU fans walk thought the hallowed gates of the Carrier Dome, they thank Ol’ Jake for having such foresight so many years ago.


Actually, that didn’t happen. It’s a fantasy based on achievements at schools like Brigham Young, Texas Tech, Boise State, Oregon and Baylor, the latter being the school we now have finally decided to emulate.

Here is what actually happened:


After sticking for another year with Frank Maloney, Jack Crouthamel brought in Dick MacPherson a pro assistant coach he remembered from his successful gig at the University of Massachusetts. Dick installed a “pro-set” attack, primarily based on running, (he was blessed with Joe Morris), which was designed to get the other team to move up to defend against the run so we could occasionally pass over their heads, (as Todd Norley did to Mike Siano vs. Nebraska). Besides that he did exactly what Frank Maloney had done when he arrived and Doug Marrone would do years later: he put his best athletes on defense to keep the team in games and give an underdog a shot at victory. It worked. We were 2-9 with an empty cupboard the first year but went 6-5, 6-5 and then 7-5. People were expecting a big breakthrough but were greeted by an 0-4 start in 1986 that produced the “Sac Mac Pack”. But the team railed to a 5-6 record.

In the meantime Coach Mac had begun recruiting the offensive talent that would turn the program around, especially a group of big offensive linemen recruited after we went to the Cherry Bowl in 1985 and got “bowl credibility. They moved in the O-line en masse in 1987 and suddenly all the plays were working like they were diagramed on the blackboard: running backs weren’t being hit until they passed the line of scrimmage and they were the ones doing the hitting. Receivers had time to get open and the quarterback had the time he needed to check each one of them before he threw. By now we had a new offensive system, based on the option and all the plays that could be run off of it when the defense adjusted to it. The idea was to draw the defense not only up to the line of scrimmage but to one side of the field. Now we could run misdirection away for the flow or go deep- or both. The result was some very exciting football and a lot of wins: 11-0-1 in 1987, 10-2 in 1989, bowl wins in 1988-90. It got coach Mac, a New Englander, a shot at coaching the Patriots late in his career. The earphones were handed to Paul Pasqualoni, who went on to become the second winningest coach in school history and who began his career with a couple of 10-2 seasons and two more bowl victories. There was no need to dream of a glory era: we were having one.

But somehow the lubricant in the machine started to fade and, due to complacency, we forgot to oil it. We were winning so why change anything? There might be a few more bumps in the road but as long as there were wins in between them, there was nothing to panic about. Facilities had always mattered in college football: Biggie Munn took his entire SU staff to Michigan State in 1947 because they promised to spend money on their program that SU wasn’t willing to spend. The ante was raised considerably with the coming of two platoon football which required national powers to be national recruiters: you weren’t recruiting fans so you had to dazzle recruits when they showed up. It was further increased when big TV money poured into the sport and effectively took it over: schools had much more money to make, much more to spend and they were willing to spend more to make more. If you didn’t keep up with the Jones- or the Rutgers- you fell behind.

On the field, teams were adjusting to the “freeze option” by over-loading to one side of the field while Pasqualoni and his OC, George DeLeone grew increasingly conservative. In 1994, only four teams in major college football threw the ball less than Syracuse: Rice and the service academies- all wishbone teams. Our recruiting was mostly limited to the northeast, with some trips to Florida and Texas to get a few players: B- listers in those states who were as good or better than the A-listers up here. P-D never did recruit a group of offensive linemen comparable to the Cherry Bowl group. As a result we were neververy good at sustaining drives. We used the option more to set up other plays – and then didn’t use those other plays often enough. The system was heavily dependent on having a great talent at quarterback. As long as we had a Don McPherson, Marvin Graves or a Donovan McNabb, we could score and win games. And they were at their best when we surrounded them with great receiving talent, like Rob Moore, Marvin Harrison and Kevin Johnson, who not only made big plays from scrimmage but could also burn teams on kick returns. It was often said that our best play was third and long, where the QB would get to scramble and improvise and his receivers could do the same.

But the conservatism prevented us from making maximum use of those assets. Harrison, who would one day set an NFL record by catching 143 passes in a single season for the Colts, caught 135 passes in four years at Syracuse, including 36 in that 1994 season. I remember a fan calling in to the coach’s show that year asking why we didn’t throw to him more and being told that the coaches are very proud that Marvin is such a team player who realizes how much he can help the team blocking for the option.

Because of that conservatism, we always seemed to come up short of expectations. We lost most of our confrontations with the “big boys” of college football and we’d find a way to lose to some inferior opponents as well. But what really hurt were the horrible nationally televised blow-outs that were massive negative advertisements for the program:14-46, 0-49 and 0-43 in consecutive games, (Lee Corso demanded ESPN keep Syracuse off TV), 0-62, 0-59, 7-49, 7-51, 0-51 and, in Coach P’s finale, 14-51.

The run of great quarterbacks finally ran out when Michael Vick opted for Virginia Tech. Even when we had great QBs, they didn’t put up the numbers we saw at those other schools: Don McPherson in three years as our starter, threw a total of 44TD passes with a high of 22 as a senior. Marvin Graves in four years threw 48TD passes with a high of 15. Donovan McNabb in three years threw 77TD passes with a high of 22. When they were replaced with the likes of Troy Nunes, R.J. Anderson, and Perry Patterson, a decline was inevitable.

To arrest that decline we brought in another coach from the pros, Greg Robinson, a man who had earned two Super Bowl rings as defensive coordinator of the Denver Broncos. He had a handsome face and a confident smile. People wondered why he had never been a head coach anywhere in 30 years and we soon found out. He brought in the Bronco’s offense , which was said to take five years for a quarterback to learn, (and he was coaching a four year school). But that was OK because he had no system for getting the plays in anyway. He seemed to have no conditioning program to speak of and his defensive drills consisted of “throwing uppercuts” because he felt that was similar to tackling. The result was the worst coaching tenure in SU history: 10 wins and 37 losses.

To drag us out of this we again went to the pros but this time to an SU alum who said this was his “dream job”: Doug Marrone, who had been an All-East offensive tackle under Coach Mac. He immediately did what Mac did and Frank Maloney before him: put his best athletes on defense to keep him in games. Then he did what a former offensive linemen would do: built up the offensive line with recruiting, conditioning and training until it became a real asset to the team for the first time since the Cherry Bowl group. His early teams greatly resembled Maloney’s 1975 team and coach Mac’s 1983-85 teams: painful to watch on offense but stout on defense. We scratched and clawed our way to two Pinstripe Bowls and managed to win them both. One problem is that they kept changing the offense. Hisfirst year, with Rob Spence, it all seemed to be bubble screens, with no downfield action. Then we were back in the pro set. In his final season he and Nathaniel Hackett, his OC, devised something actually resembling a modern passing offense centered around his senior quarterback, Ryan Nassib and two senior receivers, Alec Lemon and Marcus Sales All our passing records were set that year: 3,749 yards, 26 TDs, 72 receptions by Lemon, etc. But those players left and so did Marrone and Hackett for another “Dream job”, (which Marrone also walked away from).

He was replaced by defensive coordinator Scott Shafer, a man who seemed to be so in love with his defense that his favorite play was a punt. Down two touchdowns at BC with 7 minutes to go and the ball on the Eagles 40 yard line, 4th and 6, he punted “because I hoped we might get a stop down there- or a turnover”. He actually had a winning record his first season, secured by another minor bowl win, but the defeats were horrendous: 27-48 at Northwestern, (7-34 at the half), 14-49 in the Dome vs. Clemson, 0-56 at Georgia Tech and 3-59 at Florida State, (all accumulated in the first three quarters). Then we went through two dismal seasons: 3-9 and 4-8. It wasn’t the G-Rob era but it was the next worst thing: Shaffer and Robinson both left the program in worse shape than they found it.

SU fans, meanwhile, had begun to lose interest beginning in the Pasqualoni Era. Average attendance at the Dome fell from 49,325 in 1992 to 37,068 in Coach’s P’s last year. It jumped up slightly in G-Rob’s first year because the optimism he brought with him to 40,252 but when we saw what eh actually had brought us, it fell to 33,474 in his final year. It climbed to as high as 40, 504 under Marrone but fell to 32,102 last year under Shafer. And those figures are tickets sold. In many games the actual attendance was more like half that. The fans would still come out in force for a big game- but they were coming to see the opponent, not the home team. Even then, they didn’t fill the place: last year we got 43,101 for LSU and 5,000 of them were Tiger fans: the full allotment. For #1 ranked Clemson we got an absurd 36,706.

But, in the wreckage of the Shafer Era, we may have finally found a man who can look at the Dome and see the possibilities.
 
The New Coach

A decade ago we fired our coach and brought in a guy who had been an assistant for three decades. The result was that we found out why he had been an assistant for three decades. But this is different because Dino Baber did get his chance to be a head coach before he came here and was quite successful. Also, Babers brings a system that had worked, in fact worked miracles at his other jobs and he fully expects the same thing to happen here. And he brings key members of the coaching staff that worked those miracles so he doesn’t have to just pick-up guys form the scrap heap or promote people to positons they’ve never had before, (and hope he hasn’t promoted them to their “level of incompetence”).

We had four head coaches here from 1949-2004. Babers is the fourth head coach since then. We are in great need of a quick turn-around and a successful tenure here to re-establish the continuity that successful programs have. I’m optimistic about the successful tenure but not about the quick-turn-around.

Babers was born in California and went to the University of Hawaii, where he was the leading rusher on their 1983 team, (with a measly 295 yards on 76 carries- so you know he was already familiar with a passing offense). He became a graduate assistant there in 1984 and at Arizona State the next year. Two years later he was the running backs coach at Eastern Illinois, then UNLV for two years, Northern Arizona for a year, Purdue for three years, San Diego State for a year, then a six year stretch at Arizona, Then he was two years at Texas A&M, a year at Pittsburgh and four years at UCLA. He coached running backs, defensive backs, quarterbacks and wide receivers. He recruited the west and the upper Midwest but probably not the eastern half of the country, at least not as much. He was, by his own admission a pretty conventional football coach in terms of strategic thinking until he got his next gig at Baylor.

Baylor had been mediocre at best for much of its history. In their 82 years in the old Southwest Conference they’d won or shared the conference title 7 times but only three after 1924. They’d made it to the Cotton Bowl twice. They did manage 40 winning seasons but only 14 since the introduction of two platoon play in 1964. Grant Teaff, who had a 128-105-6 record in 21 seasons, was considered a miracle worker. In the Big 12 from 1996 through 2007, the year before Art Briles came, They were 32-106 without a single winning record.

Briles had obtained legendary status in the Texas high school ranks after he switched from the veer option offense he had learned playing for Bill Yeoman at Houston to a spread offense with all kinds of tweaks that he added as he went along. He then became an assistant to Mike Leach at Texas Tech, where they were setting passing records. He then had a chance to become the head coach at his alma mater, Houston, which had fallen on hard times, including an 0-11 season. He managed to get them turned around and went to three bowl games there, setting them up for their subsequent success.

But that hardly prepared the football world for what happened when he moved on to Baylor. At first, he seemed another in a long list of failed coaches there, taking a team that had been 3-9 and going 4-8 and then 4-8 again. But those 4-8 teams, like that first Doug Marrone team after G-Rob, were much more competitive than the 3-9 under the previous coach. They were also more exciting. Baylor was out-scored
218-444 in 2007, 336-352 in 2008. Let’s take a look at the results against common opponents:

(the team, their record in 2007, the score, their record in 2008 and the score that year)

Texas A&M (7-6) 10-34 (4-8) 41-21
Texas (10-3) 10-31 (12-1) 21-45
Texas Tech (9-4) 7-38 (11-2) 28-35
Oklahoma (11-3) 21-52 (12-2) 17-49
Oklahoma State (7-6) 14-45 (9-4) 6-34
There were three improvements in the point differential, (two of them significant) and three in the points scored, (all significant). It’s the sort of thing we might have to look for this season. Overall they went from 62-200 to 113-184.

The team actually slid back the second season, being out-scored 249-327. But then the party began: successive seasons of 7-6 (405-396); 10-3 (589-434); 8-5 (578-484); 11-2 (681-306); 11-2 (627-332); 10-3 (625-368). That’s what I’m optimistically hoping for here: a slow start, (which I hope we can avoid or at least mitigate), then the pilot light comes on, some wild scoring games, then as we recruit more and better athletes, we start playing some defense to go with it and then we can begin dreaming of conference and national championships: even if those dreams don’t come true, we’ll have a lot of fun along the way.

Dino Babers was at first dubious about this approach: hurry up offense, spread the field and roll up some basketball-like scores but get better and better as we go along, but became a total convert under Briles. He then returned to Eastern Illinois as head coach in 2012 to try to implement the system himself. E$IU has some fair success in football before. Darrell Mudra, the coach who had first made North Dakota State a small college powerhouse back in the 60’s, had coached there from 1978-82, winning 11 games twice and 12 once. In 1978 when they were the Division Ii champions. They had generally had winning records after that but the long tenure of Coach Bob Spoo, (Bob Spoo?) ended with consecutive 2-9 seasons. Dino Babers, (Dino Babers?) came in and went 7-5 and then 12-2. The scoring went from 255-345 in the last Bob Spoo year to 438-434 to 675-319. Here is a comparison of common opponents in the last Spoo year and the first Babers year and also the second Babers year:

Illinois State 33-26 51-54 57-24
Tennessee Tech 20-31 31-24 56-21
SE Missouri 30-37 39-20 55-33
Eastern Kentucky 16-48 24-7 42-7
Murray State 27-36 50-49 37-17
Tennessee-Martin 23-24 37-51 70-22
Austin Peay State 19-10 65-15 63-7
Southern Illinois 28-45 49-28 40-37
Of 8 teams, EUI did better in Babers first year vs. 6 of them. In four of them they went to do better in the second Babers year. In scoring, the Panthers improved in every game the first year and in 4 of the 8 games the second year. But that includes “slips” 65 to 63 points and 49 to 40 points. The total points went from 196-257 to 346-248 to 420-158. If Dino can produce those results at Syracuse, there’ll be another statue on the plaza.

His quarterback, the then unknown Jimmy Garoppolo, had completed 217 of 349 passes for 2,644 yards 20TDs and 14 interceptions in 2012. That’s pretty good. (SU’s four quarterbacks last year were a combined 163/303 for 1880 yards, 19TDs and 9 int). In Babers first year that increased to 331/540 3827 yards 31TD 15 int. In the second year his numbers went through the roof: 375/568 for 5030 yards, 53TDs and 9 picks. Garoppolo won the Walter Payton Award, basically the FCS Heisman and got drafted by the Patriots to be Tom Brady’s back-up, which means he’ll start the first four games this year.

Here are a set of team stats from 2011, (Spoo’s last year), 2012 and 2013, with the total and the national rank in parenthesis:
Offensive Rushing Yards Per Game 86(108) 136(76) 217(20)
Offensive Passing yards Per Game 240(27) 335(6) 372(2)
Offensive Total Yards Per Game 326(89) 471(7) 590(1)
Offensive Points Per Game 23(79) 36.5(8) 48(1)
Defensive Rushing Yards Per Game 240(114) 170(71) 170(63)
Defensive Passing Yards Per Game 164(7) 265(112) 204(38)
Defensive Total Yards 404(92) 435(102) 374(63)
Defensive Points Per Game 31(94) 36(106) 23(26)
Sacks Created 14(104) 25(54) 26(67)
Sacks Allowed 28(81) 29(80) 20(34)
Turnover Margin -14 (114) -5(92) +14(6)

Passing yards certainly improved but rushing yards improved even more. The offense was unbelievable in Baber’s last year there, indisputably the best in the country at the FCS level. But I think defensive improvement will be just as important and the adjustment to a new scheme will take place there as well. The EIU numbers show an immediate improvement in rushing defense, a fall back in passing defense but an improvement from that point in the second year. Defensive total yards went up but them back down to a lower figure than in Spoo’s last year, as did points surrendered. The team got more sacks immediately and gave up the same amount but improved in the second year. Turnover margin considerably improved each year and that’s significant: we associate passing with more turnovers but a controlled short passing game can reduce turnovers.

Baber’s success in the FCS playoffs was limited. In 2012 they got crushed by South Dakota State 10-58 in their first game. The next year they had great success in their first game against Tennessee State, 51-10. Then they ran into Towson State, a rugged team with the best running back in the country, Terrance West, who gained 2,509 yards on 413 carries and scored 41 touchdowns. They loved to play smash-mouth football and West gave them the prefect weapon, especially after it started to snow. I described this game in my series on the FCS playoffs that season:


“Eastern Illinois was the nation’s highest scoring FCS team and looked it in the first quarter against Towson State, scoring easily on their first two possessions. People have compared them to Baylor because they run a similar offense. Towson, a power running team behind Terrence West, who had been the division’s second leading rusher, seemed out of its element. But the game was played in the elements, still another played in a snowstorm, and the power running game was the way to go. And go West did, running for an incredible 354 yards and 5 touchdowns on 39 carries. The Tigers scored three unanswered touchdowns in the second quarter to take a lead they never surrendered. The Panther’s great quarterback Jimmy Garoppalo, tried his best to keep up, passing for 321 yards, an amazing 38 for 50- but mostly short passes) but only 2 touchdowns. Erik Lora caught 18 of those passes for 129 yards and a score. They got to within 32-35 and forced a punt in the fourth quarter. But Towson forced a punt and drove for a score and the forced a fumble on a sack and scored again to make it 32-49. Eastern scored again but it took 16 plays and 4:21. Towson was able to run out the clock on the 49-39 win.”


That makes we wonder how well Baber’s scheme works against the “smashmouth” football teams that are willing and cable of mounting long, crushing drives and wearing a defense down while keeping their offense on the sidelines. Remember Ohio State against Oregon? We will be playing some “smashmouth” teams this year.

With this success, Babers got the Bowling Green job. Bowling Green has had an excellent football history at the MAC level. From 1955-64 they were coached by Doyt Perry who went 77-11-5, one of the highest winning percentages in history. The Falcons were National Small College champions in 1959, (the year Syracuse was the major college champion). The school’s football stadium is named after him. Perry stepped up to the AD job to be replaced by his assistant, Bob Gibson, He had three winning records before being replaced by Don Nehlen. (Gibson later became offensive coordinator for the Giants- until he told Joe Pisarcik to hand off to Larry Csonka). Nehlen coached there for 9 years, having 8 winning seasons, including two one-sided wins over Syracuse that showed how far our program had fallen at the time. He then took the job at West Virginia and had a long and successful tenure there.

Former Michigan State coach Denny Stolz came in but struggled with a 22-33-1 record in his first five seasons. But he went 34-12 in his four years, including an 11-0 season in his final year. But he left the team before their bowl game for another job and the Falcons got rolled by Fresno State 7-51. Moe Ankney had five losing records and was dismissed. Gary Blackney was the coach for the next 10 seasons He started 36-8-2, including a 11-1 season that ended with a bowl win over Fresno State and a 10-2 season that produced a bowl win over Nevada. But the record slid to 24-42 in Blackney’s last 6 seasons. They then hired a young assistant coach for his first head job: Urban Meyer. He went 17-6 before taking the job at Utah. He’s done pretty well since. Greg Brandon followed him with an 11-3 season that included a bowl win over Northwestern and a 9-3 season but then slid to 24-24 in the next four years. Dave Clawson took over in 2009 and went to a bowl with a 7-6 season, collapsed to 2-10 in 2010 but then steadily improved until they went to bowl games his last two years and got the Wake Forest job. His final team went 10-4, won the MAC and lost to Pittsburgh 27-30 in the Little Caesars Bowl.

So Babers inherited a good team at a school with a legitimate history. Babers kept them at that level, going to two straight MAC title games and bowls games. He lost the MAC game the first year but won the bowl game and reversed that the next year. Both MAC title games were against North Illinois and he reversed the result from 17-51 the first year to 34-14 the next year. The bowl loss was a 27-58 blow out to former FCS power Georgia Southern but Dino wasn’t there: he was already preparing things in Syracuse. His defensive coordinator was running the team, which probably made it harder to coordinate the defense. Clawson’s last team had been 10-4 and out-scored their opponents 487-222. Babers first team was 8-6 (420-469) and his second 10-4 (591-402). Obviously, Clawson’s defense was far superior but Baber’s second offense was on another level from Clawson. Here are the teams they played in all three years:

Kent 41-22 30-20 48-0
Akron 31-14 27-10 59-10
Massachusetts 28-7 47-42 62-38
Toledo 25-28 20-27 28-44
Ohio 49-0 31-13 62-24
Buffalo 24-7 36-35 28-22
No. Illinois 47-27 17-51 34-14

In five of the seven games the Falcons got worse in Baber’s first year than they had been in Clawson’s last year but then got better in Baber’s second year. Against two of those opponents they were better in Baber’s second year than in the Clawson year. It was the same in scoring: against five opponents they got worse, then better. However, against all seven of them they scored more points in Baber’s second year than Clawson’s last. Basically the last Clawson team and Baber’s second team were comparable; both better than Baber’s first team. But the strength of Clawson’s team was defense and the strength of Babers’ was offense.

Just as he had inherited Jimmy Garoppolo at Eastern Illinois, Babers inherited Matt Johnson at Bowling Green. Matt had had a similar pre-Babers season to Garoppolo’s, actually a bit better: 237/369 for 3467 yards 25TDs and 7 interceptions. Unfortunately, Johnson got hurt in the first game in 2014 and Babers had to go with his less talented back-up, James Knapke, who was 280/483 for 3173 yard, 15TDs and 12 int, not a bad year but a step down and the reason why Baber’s first offense at BG wasn’t as productive as Clawson’s last. Johnson was back in 2015 and basically repeated the year Garoppolo had as a senior: 383/569 for 4946 yards, 46TDs and 8int. That would blow away the SU record book.

Babers also inherited a fine runner, Travis Greene, who had a 279/1594/11 season for Clawson and then 180/949/12 and 222/1298/15 for Babers. It appears we’ll have a two-headed running back this year: Donte Strickland and Jordan Fredericks. If they can combine for Green-type numbers, (and I think they can), that will be most welcome. It’s interesting that Greene ran the ball less gained fewer yards under Babers but scored more touchdowns. I’ll bet he made that trade in good spirits.

Here are the BG team numbers from 2013-2105:

Offensive Rushing Yards Per Game 193(39) 173(54) 180(52)
Offensive Passing yards Per Game 266(31) 260(40) 367(5)
Offensive Total Yards Per Game 459(29) 433(41) 547(4)
Offensive Points Per Game 35(28) 30(56) 42(6)
Defensive Rushing Yards Per Game 151(46) 202(99) 183(79)
Defensive Passing Yards Per Game 171(6) 291(122) 235(78)
Defensive Total Yards 321(10) 494(115) 418(86)
Defensive Points Per Game 16(5) 33.5(106) 30(84)
Sacks Created 30(58) 28(74) 30(63)
Sacks Allowed 41(108) 28(56) 36(98)
Turnover Margin +10 (19) +10(17) +12(9)

The offensive progression is predictable, considering that Babers lost his starting quarterback at the beginning of his first season. The defensive decline is a little disappointing but Clawson had a very good defense in his last year. At least Baber’s defense did improve in his second year. I like the fact that the sacks allowed went down that first year, although they slipped in that category the second, probably because they were throwing 100 times more. I also like the fact that the turnover margin remained very positive. This is an amped up offense but not a high risk one.

Babers asked us to close our eyes and dream of all the excitement we’d see in the Carrier Dome. It was nice but we kept bumping into things. Then he told us that his scheme doesn’t really kick in until midway through the second year- he was very specific: between the 4th and the 6th game. His second Eastern Illinois team was 4-1 in their first five games and averaged 44ppg. The rest of the season they were 8-1 and averaged 51ppg. His second Bowling Green team was 3-2 in their first five games, averaging 36ppg. After that they were 7-2, (7-1 in games he was there to coach) and averaged 45 ppg, (48 in the ones he coached). So the difference is one of magnitude: his offenses are pretty productive even before that.

But this isn’t FCS and it isn’t the MAC. He’s not playing Austin Peay or Kent State. I know Baylor did very well in the Big 12 but I don’t think the Big 12 was all that strong for a Power 5 conference in the Art Briles Era- Texas and Oklahoma were down and Nebraska and Missouri were gone. And Briles went 4-8, 4-8, 7-6 before a 10-3 breakthrough. They avoided strong non-conference opponents and were 3-3 in bowl games against Illinois, Washington, UCLA, Central Florida, Michigan State and North Carolina, 262-252, (44-42 average score). Against Oklahoma, the premiere team in the conference, they were 3-5: 17-49, 7-33, 24-53, 45-38, 34-42, 41-12, 48-14 and 34-44: they became competitive but it took three years to do so. In the ACC, we’ll be playing Florida State, Clemson and Louisville every year and this is our year to play Notre Dame. We’re not the first team in the ACC to “hurry it up” and ACC defenses have had time to adjust to this sort of attack. I think at the very least the Babers tenure here will follow the Briles pattern, possibly be more difficult than that. One posters said “This year our opponents will never know what hit them!” They may not know because it may not hit them yet.

Even if it does, there will be a touch of frustration. This is something we should have done a long time ago. I feel like a NASCAR driver who is not part of “the pack”: those two dozen or so cars that tailgate in two parallel lines to reduce turbulence, allowing all of them to travel faster than an individual car. If you are not in the pack, you can floor it and lose ground to the cars that are in it. Eventually you give up, let it pass and get in behind hit, now part of the pack but in 25th place. We should be in first place, with everybody trying to copy us.

(Tomorrow: Part 2: The Team)
 
Great post, SWC. And not to pick nits, but there was a reason Babers' first year at BGSU saw a decline on the defensive side but held It's own on offense. BGSU lost the majority of defensive starters from the Clawson defense, but returned its best players on offense. His defense was simply too young in 2014 to hold its own. In 2015, his young defense had grown up a year ( and had a better DC).

The SU defense in 2015 had a similar situation to BGSU's defense - too many underclass an and too few returning starters.

So, now, Babers has the benefit of a full set of returning skill players, and a lot of returning starters on the defense as well. Not a bad situation at all.
 
The fantasy version of the rise of the Orange in the Dome era made me sad.

You raise some good points about Dino and what we might expect. The run first offenses may do better than we'd like against us in the next couple of years but hopefully strong d line recruiting changes that. A stronger than expected offense can change that equation quickly as well.

Babers strikes me as a coach that looks to improve all aspects of his game. We benefit greatly from the experience he's had to date. There will be a learning curve as well the next few years but he has a lot to build from.
 
Excellent. Brought back some great memories, I'm trying to forget the bad ones. Thank you
 
The fantasy version of the rise of the Orange in the Dome era made me sad.

You raise some good points about Dino and what we might expect. The run first offenses may do better than we'd like against us in the next couple of years but hopefully strong d line recruiting changes that. A stronger than expected offense can change that equation quickly as well.

Babers strikes me as a coach that looks to improve all aspects of his game. We benefit greatly from the experience he's had to date. There will be a learning curve as well the next few years but he has a lot to build from.

It really depends on how fast our offense can score. Baylor and BG were known for scoring drives that took less than a minute. If the opposing teams are eating clock by running? Thats a dangerous game to play. You don't get extra points for slow drives.

This is the conundrum this kind of offense puts meat head teams in: pass to conserve clock and keep up or slow the game down and limit your chances.
 
It really depends on Franklin. If it's a true Tampa 2 it depends on how quickly he reads the play and if its a pass how quickly he drops back to cover the middle deep zone. OLB's cover more space than before with them being laterally responsible from the perimeter to the vacated interior. They all must be quick and fast. Reacttion times must be very quick or else we could get pounded up the middle unless the interior DL stops the play at the line of scrimmage. Biggest worry is against teams that like to run 2 to every 1 pass. Could open us up to long time consuming drives.
 
Quote:
"His second Bowling Green team was 3-2 in their first five games, averaging 36ppg. After that they were 7-2, (7-1 in games he was there to coach) and averaged 45 ppg, (48 in the ones he coached). So the difference is one of magnitude: his offenses are pretty productive even before that."

When assessing Babers' prediction that it takes a season and a half to get his offense rolling, I am not sure we can use the BGSU experience as proof. His first year, he lost his QB (Matt Johnson -- out for the season) in the first game. In his second year, Johnson put up 400 yards passing in each of the first 4 games (against serious, out of conference opponents). Pretty good numbers, especially considering it was against stiffer than MAC opposition. BGSU then had an easy win against Buffalo, scoring only 4 TDs, and allowing Buffalo a couple of late scores. In the rest of the MAC schedule, Johnson & crew rocked some big numbers.

Looking at the points on the board, the numbers got better mid-way in season 2 -- but then you have to correct for the QB situation and the level of competition.

And I still believe Dungey and his skill players will be ready this season, right out of the gate.
 
Quote:
"His second Bowling Green team was 3-2 in their first five games, averaging 36ppg. After that they were 7-2, (7-1 in games he was there to coach) and averaged 45 ppg, (48 in the ones he coached). So the difference is one of magnitude: his offenses are pretty productive even before that."

When assessing Babers' prediction that it takes a season and a half to get his offense rolling, I am not sure we can use the BGSU experience as proof. His first year, he lost his QB (Matt Johnson -- out for the season) in the first game. In his second year, Johnson put up 400 yards passing in each of the first 4 games (against serious, out of conference opponents). Pretty good numbers, especially considering it was against stiffer than MAC opposition. BGSU then had an easy win against Buffalo, scoring only 4 TDs, and allowing Buffalo a couple of late scores. In the rest of the MAC schedule, Johnson & crew rocked some big numbers -- but was the competition the same as the first 4 games? Not really.

Looking at the points on the board, the numbers got better mid-way in season 2 -- but then you have to correct for the QB situation and the level of competition.

And I still believe Dungey and his skill players will be ready this season, right out of the gate.
 
The assessment of the Big 12 comp that Baylor passed with lesser talent is a wee bit off too.
 

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