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Message: [QUOTE="SWC75, post: 1852763, member: 289"] [I] The New Coach[/I] A decade ago we fired our coach and brought in a guy who had been an assistant for three decades. The result was that we found out why he had been an assistant for three decades. But this is different because Dino Baber did get his chance to be a head coach before he came here and was quite successful. Also, Babers brings a system that had worked, in fact worked miracles at his other jobs and he fully expects the same thing to happen here. And he brings key members of the coaching staff that worked those miracles so he doesn’t have to just pick-up guys form the scrap heap or promote people to positons they’ve never had before, (and hope he hasn’t promoted them to their “level of incompetence”). We had four head coaches here from 1949-2004. Babers is the fourth head coach since then. We are in great need of a quick turn-around and a successful tenure here to re-establish the continuity that successful programs have. I’m optimistic about the successful tenure but not about the quick-turn-around. Babers was born in California and went to the University of Hawaii, where he was the leading rusher on their 1983 team, (with a measly 295 yards on 76 carries- so you know he was already familiar with a passing offense). He became a graduate assistant there in 1984 and at Arizona State the next year. Two years later he was the running backs coach at Eastern Illinois, then UNLV for two years, Northern Arizona for a year, Purdue for three years, San Diego State for a year, then a six year stretch at Arizona, Then he was two years at Texas A&M, a year at Pittsburgh and four years at UCLA. He coached running backs, defensive backs, quarterbacks and wide receivers. He recruited the west and the upper Midwest but probably not the eastern half of the country, at least not as much. He was, by his own admission a pretty conventional football coach in terms of strategic thinking until he got his next gig at Baylor. Baylor had been mediocre at best for much of its history. In their 82 years in the old Southwest Conference they’d won or shared the conference title 7 times but only three after 1924. They’d made it to the Cotton Bowl twice. They did manage 40 winning seasons but only 14 since the introduction of two platoon play in 1964. Grant Teaff, who had a 128-105-6 record in 21 seasons, was considered a miracle worker. In the Big 12 from 1996 through 2007, the year before Art Briles came, They were 32-106 without a single winning record. Briles had obtained legendary status in the Texas high school ranks after he switched from the veer option offense he had learned playing for Bill Yeoman at Houston to a spread offense with all kinds of tweaks that he added as he went along. He then became an assistant to Mike Leach at Texas Tech, where they were setting passing records. He then had a chance to become the head coach at his alma mater, Houston, which had fallen on hard times, including an 0-11 season. He managed to get them turned around and went to three bowl games there, setting them up for their subsequent success. But that hardly prepared the football world for what happened when he moved on to Baylor. At first, he seemed another in a long list of failed coaches there, taking a team that had been 3-9 and going 4-8 and then 4-8 again. But those 4-8 teams, like that first Doug Marrone team after G-Rob, were much more competitive than the 3-9 under the previous coach. They were also more exciting. Baylor was out-scored 218-444 in 2007, 336-352 in 2008. Let’s take a look at the results against common opponents: (the team, their record in 2007, the score, their record in 2008 and the score that year) Texas A&M (7-6) 10-34 (4-8) 41-21 Texas (10-3) 10-31 (12-1) 21-45 Texas Tech (9-4) 7-38 (11-2) 28-35 Oklahoma (11-3) 21-52 (12-2) 17-49 Oklahoma State (7-6) 14-45 (9-4) 6-34 There were three improvements in the point differential, (two of them significant) and three in the points scored, (all significant). It’s the sort of thing we might have to look for this season. Overall they went from 62-200 to 113-184. The team actually slid back the second season, being out-scored 249-327. But then the party began: successive seasons of 7-6 (405-396); 10-3 (589-434); 8-5 (578-484); 11-2 (681-306); 11-2 (627-332); 10-3 (625-368). That’s what I’m optimistically hoping for here: a slow start, (which I hope we can avoid or at least mitigate), then the pilot light comes on, some wild scoring games, then as we recruit more and better athletes, we start playing some defense to go with it and then we can begin dreaming of conference and national championships: even if those dreams don’t come true, we’ll have a lot of fun along the way. Dino Babers was at first dubious about this approach: hurry up offense, spread the field and roll up some basketball-like scores but get better and better as we go along, but became a total convert under Briles. He then returned to Eastern Illinois as head coach in 2012 to try to implement the system himself. E$IU has some fair success in football before. Darrell Mudra, the coach who had first made North Dakota State a small college powerhouse back in the 60’s, had coached there from 1978-82, winning 11 games twice and 12 once. In 1978 when they were the Division Ii champions. They had generally had winning records after that but the long tenure of Coach Bob Spoo, (Bob Spoo?) ended with consecutive 2-9 seasons. Dino Babers, (Dino Babers?) came in and went 7-5 and then 12-2. The scoring went from 255-345 in the last Bob Spoo year to 438-434 to 675-319. Here is a comparison of common opponents in the last Spoo year and the first Babers year and also the second Babers year: Illinois State 33-26 51-54 57-24 Tennessee Tech 20-31 31-24 56-21 SE Missouri 30-37 39-20 55-33 Eastern Kentucky 16-48 24-7 42-7 Murray State 27-36 50-49 37-17 Tennessee-Martin 23-24 37-51 70-22 Austin Peay State 19-10 65-15 63-7 Southern Illinois 28-45 49-28 40-37 Of 8 teams, EUI did better in Babers first year vs. 6 of them. In four of them they went to do better in the second Babers year. In scoring, the Panthers improved in every game the first year and in 4 of the 8 games the second year. But that includes “slips” 65 to 63 points and 49 to 40 points. The total points went from 196-257 to 346-248 to 420-158. If Dino can produce those results at Syracuse, there’ll be another statue on the plaza. His quarterback, the then unknown Jimmy Garoppolo, had completed 217 of 349 passes for 2,644 yards 20TDs and 14 interceptions in 2012. That’s pretty good. (SU’s four quarterbacks last year were a combined 163/303 for 1880 yards, 19TDs and 9 int). In Babers first year that increased to 331/540 3827 yards 31TD 15 int. In the second year his numbers went through the roof: 375/568 for 5030 yards, 53TDs and 9 picks. Garoppolo won the Walter Payton Award, basically the FCS Heisman and got drafted by the Patriots to be Tom Brady’s back-up, which means he’ll start the first four games this year. Here are a set of team stats from 2011, (Spoo’s last year), 2012 and 2013, with the total and the national rank in parenthesis: Offensive Rushing Yards Per Game 86(108) 136(76) 217(20) Offensive Passing yards Per Game 240(27) 335(6) 372(2) Offensive Total Yards Per Game 326(89) 471(7) 590(1) Offensive Points Per Game 23(79) 36.5(8) 48(1) Defensive Rushing Yards Per Game 240(114) 170(71) 170(63) Defensive Passing Yards Per Game 164(7) 265(112) 204(38) Defensive Total Yards 404(92) 435(102) 374(63) Defensive Points Per Game 31(94) 36(106) 23(26) Sacks Created 14(104) 25(54) 26(67) Sacks Allowed 28(81) 29(80) 20(34) Turnover Margin -14 (114) -5(92) +14(6) Passing yards certainly improved but rushing yards improved even more. The offense was unbelievable in Baber’s last year there, indisputably the best in the country at the FCS level. But I think defensive improvement will be just as important and the adjustment to a new scheme will take place there as well. The EIU numbers show an immediate improvement in rushing defense, a fall back in passing defense but an improvement from that point in the second year. Defensive total yards went up but them back down to a lower figure than in Spoo’s last year, as did points surrendered. The team got more sacks immediately and gave up the same amount but improved in the second year. Turnover margin considerably improved each year and that’s significant: we associate passing with more turnovers but a controlled short passing game can reduce turnovers. Baber’s success in the FCS playoffs was limited. In 2012 they got crushed by South Dakota State 10-58 in their first game. The next year they had great success in their first game against Tennessee State, 51-10. Then they ran into Towson State, a rugged team with the best running back in the country, Terrance West, who gained 2,509 yards on 413 carries and scored 41 touchdowns. They loved to play smash-mouth football and West gave them the prefect weapon, especially after it started to snow. I described this game in my series on the FCS playoffs that season: “Eastern Illinois was the nation’s highest scoring FCS team and looked it in the first quarter against Towson State, scoring easily on their first two possessions. People have compared them to Baylor because they run a similar offense. Towson, a power running team behind Terrence West, who had been the division’s second leading rusher, seemed out of its element. But the game was played in the elements, still another played in a snowstorm, and the power running game was the way to go. And go West did, running for an incredible 354 yards and 5 touchdowns on 39 carries. The Tigers scored three unanswered touchdowns in the second quarter to take a lead they never surrendered. The Panther’s great quarterback Jimmy Garoppalo, tried his best to keep up, passing for 321 yards, an amazing 38 for 50- but mostly short passes) but only 2 touchdowns. Erik Lora caught 18 of those passes for 129 yards and a score. They got to within 32-35 and forced a punt in the fourth quarter. But Towson forced a punt and drove for a score and the forced a fumble on a sack and scored again to make it 32-49. Eastern scored again but it took 16 plays and 4:21. Towson was able to run out the clock on the 49-39 win.” That makes we wonder how well Baber’s scheme works against the “smashmouth” football teams that are willing and cable of mounting long, crushing drives and wearing a defense down while keeping their offense on the sidelines. Remember Ohio State against Oregon? We will be playing some “smashmouth” teams this year. With this success, Babers got the Bowling Green job. Bowling Green has had an excellent football history at the MAC level. From 1955-64 they were coached by Doyt Perry who went 77-11-5, one of the highest winning percentages in history. The Falcons were National Small College champions in 1959, (the year Syracuse was the major college champion). The school’s football stadium is named after him. Perry stepped up to the AD job to be replaced by his assistant, Bob Gibson, He had three winning records before being replaced by Don Nehlen. (Gibson later became offensive coordinator for the Giants- until he told Joe Pisarcik to hand off to Larry Csonka). Nehlen coached there for 9 years, having 8 winning seasons, including two one-sided wins over Syracuse that showed how far our program had fallen at the time. He then took the job at West Virginia and had a long and successful tenure there. Former Michigan State coach Denny Stolz came in but struggled with a 22-33-1 record in his first five seasons. But he went 34-12 in his four years, including an 11-0 season in his final year. But he left the team before their bowl game for another job and the Falcons got rolled by Fresno State 7-51. Moe Ankney had five losing records and was dismissed. Gary Blackney was the coach for the next 10 seasons He started 36-8-2, including a 11-1 season that ended with a bowl win over Fresno State and a 10-2 season that produced a bowl win over Nevada. But the record slid to 24-42 in Blackney’s last 6 seasons. They then hired a young assistant coach for his first head job: Urban Meyer. He went 17-6 before taking the job at Utah. He’s done pretty well since. Greg Brandon followed him with an 11-3 season that included a bowl win over Northwestern and a 9-3 season but then slid to 24-24 in the next four years. Dave Clawson took over in 2009 and went to a bowl with a 7-6 season, collapsed to 2-10 in 2010 but then steadily improved until they went to bowl games his last two years and got the Wake Forest job. His final team went 10-4, won the MAC and lost to Pittsburgh 27-30 in the Little Caesars Bowl. So Babers inherited a good team at a school with a legitimate history. Babers kept them at that level, going to two straight MAC title games and bowls games. He lost the MAC game the first year but won the bowl game and reversed that the next year. Both MAC title games were against North Illinois and he reversed the result from 17-51 the first year to 34-14 the next year. The bowl loss was a 27-58 blow out to former FCS power Georgia Southern but Dino wasn’t there: he was already preparing things in Syracuse. His defensive coordinator was running the team, which probably made it harder to coordinate the defense. Clawson’s last team had been 10-4 and out-scored their opponents 487-222. Babers first team was 8-6 (420-469) and his second 10-4 (591-402). Obviously, Clawson’s defense was far superior but Baber’s second offense was on another level from Clawson. Here are the teams they played in all three years: Kent 41-22 30-20 48-0 Akron 31-14 27-10 59-10 Massachusetts 28-7 47-42 62-38 Toledo 25-28 20-27 28-44 Ohio 49-0 31-13 62-24 Buffalo 24-7 36-35 28-22 No. Illinois 47-27 17-51 34-14 In five of the seven games the Falcons got worse in Baber’s first year than they had been in Clawson’s last year but then got better in Baber’s second year. Against two of those opponents they were better in Baber’s second year than in the Clawson year. It was the same in scoring: against five opponents they got worse, then better. However, against all seven of them they scored more points in Baber’s second year than Clawson’s last. Basically the last Clawson team and Baber’s second team were comparable; both better than Baber’s first team. But the strength of Clawson’s team was defense and the strength of Babers’ was offense. Just as he had inherited Jimmy Garoppolo at Eastern Illinois, Babers inherited Matt Johnson at Bowling Green. Matt had had a similar pre-Babers season to Garoppolo’s, actually a bit better: 237/369 for 3467 yards 25TDs and 7 interceptions. Unfortunately, Johnson got hurt in the first game in 2014 and Babers had to go with his less talented back-up, James Knapke, who was 280/483 for 3173 yard, 15TDs and 12 int, not a bad year but a step down and the reason why Baber’s first offense at BG wasn’t as productive as Clawson’s last. Johnson was back in 2015 and basically repeated the year Garoppolo had as a senior: 383/569 for 4946 yards, 46TDs and 8int. That would blow away the SU record book. Babers also inherited a fine runner, Travis Greene, who had a 279/1594/11 season for Clawson and then 180/949/12 and 222/1298/15 for Babers. It appears we’ll have a two-headed running back this year: Donte Strickland and Jordan Fredericks. If they can combine for Green-type numbers, (and I think they can), that will be most welcome. It’s interesting that Greene ran the ball less gained fewer yards under Babers but scored more touchdowns. I’ll bet he made that trade in good spirits. Here are the BG team numbers from 2013-2105: Offensive Rushing Yards Per Game 193(39) 173(54) 180(52) Offensive Passing yards Per Game 266(31) 260(40) 367(5) Offensive Total Yards Per Game 459(29) 433(41) 547(4) Offensive Points Per Game 35(28) 30(56) 42(6) Defensive Rushing Yards Per Game 151(46) 202(99) 183(79) Defensive Passing Yards Per Game 171(6) 291(122) 235(78) Defensive Total Yards 321(10) 494(115) 418(86) Defensive Points Per Game 16(5) 33.5(106) 30(84) Sacks Created 30(58) 28(74) 30(63) Sacks Allowed 41(108) 28(56) 36(98) Turnover Margin +10 (19) +10(17) +12(9) The offensive progression is predictable, considering that Babers lost his starting quarterback at the beginning of his first season. The defensive decline is a little disappointing but Clawson had a very good defense in his last year. At least Baber’s defense did improve in his second year. I like the fact that the sacks allowed went down that first year, although they slipped in that category the second, probably because they were throwing 100 times more. I also like the fact that the turnover margin remained very positive. This is an amped up offense but not a high risk one. Babers asked us to close our eyes and dream of all the excitement we’d see in the Carrier Dome. It was nice but we kept bumping into things. Then he told us that his scheme doesn’t really kick in until midway through the second year- he was very specific: between the 4th and the 6th game. His second Eastern Illinois team was 4-1 in their first five games and averaged 44ppg. The rest of the season they were 8-1 and averaged 51ppg. His second Bowling Green team was 3-2 in their first five games, averaging 36ppg. After that they were 7-2, (7-1 in games he was there to coach) and averaged 45 ppg, (48 in the ones he coached). So the difference is one of magnitude: his offenses are pretty productive even before that. But this isn’t FCS and it isn’t the MAC. He’s not playing Austin Peay or Kent State. I know Baylor did very well in the Big 12 but I don’t think the Big 12 was all that strong for a Power 5 conference in the Art Briles Era- Texas and Oklahoma were down and Nebraska and Missouri were gone. And Briles went 4-8, 4-8, 7-6 before a 10-3 breakthrough. They avoided strong non-conference opponents and were 3-3 in bowl games against Illinois, Washington, UCLA, Central Florida, Michigan State and North Carolina, 262-252, (44-42 average score). Against Oklahoma, the premiere team in the conference, they were 3-5: 17-49, 7-33, 24-53, 45-38, 34-42, 41-12, 48-14 and 34-44: they became competitive but it took three years to do so. In the ACC, we’ll be playing Florida State, Clemson and Louisville every year and this is our year to play Notre Dame. We’re not the first team in the ACC to “hurry it up” and ACC defenses have had time to adjust to this sort of attack. I think at the very least the Babers tenure here will follow the Briles pattern, possibly be more difficult than that. One posters said “This year our opponents will never know what hit them!” They may not know because it may not hit them yet. Even if it does, there will be a touch of frustration. This is something we should have done a long time ago. I feel like a NASCAR driver who is not part of “the pack”: those two dozen or so cars that tailgate in two parallel lines to reduce turbulence, allowing all of them to travel faster than an individual car. If you are not in the pack, you can floor it and lose ground to the cars that are in it. Eventually you give up, let it pass and get in behind hit, now part of the pack but in 25th place. We should be in first place, with everybody trying to copy us. (Tomorrow: Part 2: The Team) [/QUOTE]

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