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My 2016 SU Football Preview Part 3: The Schedule
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[QUOTE="SWC75, post: 1854559, member: 289"] [I]October[/I] Saturday, October 1, TBA at the Meadowlands vs. NOTRE DAME TV: TBA Hopefully, we’ll at least be 2-2 going into this game because it may be awhile before we are ready to beat the Irish, who went 10-3 last year. They are talking about making the national championship playoff this year. Lindys under potential problems wrote: “The biggest issue is the lack of leadership for a program desperate for big personalities”. We should have such problems. The Irish don’t have to look for a quarterback – they just have to decide on one. Malik Zaire threw for 313 yards and 3TDs in an opening demolition of Texas but then broke his ankle. DeShone Kizer then led the team to nine more wins. Two point losses to Clemson and Stanford prevented the Irish from going 12-0. Then they got beat in the bowl game by Ohio State. Kizer completed 63% of his passes for 2884 yards, 21TDs and 10 int. He ran for 520 yards and 10TDs while Zaire got 103 yards but didn’t score. So yes, they are “multiple”. Sophomore Brandon Wimbush may be a bigger talent than either of them. That’s the way things are at Notre Dame. But it’s also the way things are that they lost their top three receivers and it’s not clear if Corey Robinson, after a series of concussions, will be available. Their top returning receiver is Torii Hunter Jr. who had 28 receptions for 363 yards and 2TDs. Yes, he’s the son of the former major league center fielder. Another early injury was Tarean Folston, who rushed for 889 yards and 6TDs two years ago before tearing his ACL in last year’s opener. He’s back and so is his replacement, Josh Adams who had 835 yards and 6TDs, including a 98 yarder, in Tarean’s absence. There are questions about their offensive line. An opposing coach told ESPN: “I don’t think they’re built at the line of scrimmage for a championship. I don’t know if they’ve developed well enough or are tough enough. Notre Dame’s perception is big, strong dudes – and they aren’t.” Which doesn’t mean they aren’t big and strong enough for Syracuse. Their defense was too complicated last season, by consensus. DC Brian VanGorder came in from the NFL and tried to install a complicated scheme. An opposing coach told ESPN: “This is hard for us to prepare for but it apparently is very hard for them to get right as well. Many of the big plays against the 2015 defense were missed assignments in the secondary.” Lindy’s says “it’s not clear if Van Gorder will tone it down but he might not have to because the players who remain are more fluent in his third year system.“ SI’s “opposing coach” on Van Gorder: “Brian Van Gorder is like everybody else on 1st and 2nd down, but he’s more exotic that almost anybody on third down. He’s got different fronts and they blitz from everywhere. You have to get out in space and make them miss or max-protect and beat them one-on-one downfield.” Dino Baber’s system is all about getting into space and we have guys who could make them miss. Max-protecting may be another issue, however. They lost two linebackers who were team captains, thus the leadership issue. Nyles Morgan, a freshman AA two years ago but a reserve last year, takes over in the middle. In the line “End Isaac Rochell and nose tackle Jarron Jones have NFL potential.” Remember Jarron Jones?. SI describes Jones, who is 6-5 ½ 315: “Jones Length not only makes him difficult to contend with in interior spaces but also makes him a special teams weapon. He has blocked four field goal attempts in his career.” They will have three new starters in the secondary but one of them is a 5 star safety prospect Max Redfield. This could be the shoot-out against a ranked team we need to tell the nation that we’re back on the map. Or it could be a message to us about how far we have to go to get back on the map. Last year’s stats and rankings, offensive and defensive: Rushing yards per game: 208 (28th) vs. 176 (72nd) Passing yards per game: 259 (35th) vs. 197 (27th) Total Yards per game: 466 (27th) vs. 373 (45th) Scoring per game: 34 (34th) vs. 24 (39th) Turnover Margin: -6 (102nd) Total Sacks: 25 (74th) vs. 26 (59th) Saturday, October 8, TBA at WAKE FOREST TV: TBA When you play the one team your predecessor went undefeated against, you need to win. Scott Shafer beat the Demon Deacons 13-0, 30-7 and 30-17 so Dino Babers will want this one bad. When pundits talk about the worst programs in the ACC, they rate either Wake or Syracuse at the bottom. Without our wins over them, it would be just us. Babers was hired to get us out of the bottom of the standings so this is a “must” win. It’s also a game against his predecessor at Bowling Green, Dave Clawson who has been able to claw his way to only 6 victories in two years here. Babers will want to prove that he’s going to be more successful in the ACC than Clawson. Remember that Clawson at BG was the better defensive coach, Babers the better offensive coach. Connecticut went for a defensive coach and can’t score. Same with Wake. Like Connecticut, they averaged 17 points a game last year. Quarterback John Wofford was decent, at best last year: 61%, 1791 yards, 9TDs11int but he’s not a dual threat: 67 yards rushing, although he scored 3TDs. “Their young receiving corps featured the most receptions among freshman players (131) of any team in the nation.” (Lindy’s) Cortez Lewis was 47-611-4, Chucky Wade 33-348-1 and Tabari Hines 32 368-3. Those youthful playmakers suggest that we’d better beat Clawson now because things could be changing for the better in Winston Salem. They could hardly get worse in the running game, which was 123rd in the county, (of 127 teams), with 105 yard per game last year, which was actually an improvement over the previous year, when they average an absurd 40 yards per game. Tyler Bell was their best with 451 yards, (2.5) and a single touchdown. The line has 4 of 5 starters returning. Is that a good thing? “These guys get knocked back and they can’t create any space. They’re under-manned but they are also at a disadvantage in the style in which they are asked to block. You can’t take a guy who is not as physically talented as the player that he’s going against and make him go lateral. The guy’s getting his butt kicked” (opposing coach to ESPN) Unlike Connecticut, they gave up 25 points a game. DE Duke Fjiofor (6-4 275), may be a coming star: he led the team in sacks last year despite missing the first five games of the year. They have only one returning linebacker but Marquel Lee led the team with 10 tackles for a loss. Safety Ryan Janvion has 282 career tackles and cornerback Brad Wilson was second in the league in “passes defended” with 18. (Do you just love the new stats?) An old fashioned stat: Mike Weaver missed 8 for 18 field goals. They are looking for a new punter. They averaged 18 yards a kick-off return and 4 yards a punt return. Again, not a dynamic team. Will we be one by the time we play them? Last year’s stats and rankings, offensive and defensive: Rushing yards per game: 105 (122nd) vs. 161 (52nd) Passing yards per game: 228 (60th) vs. 202.5 (32nd) Total Yards per game: 333 (113th) vs. 364 (38th) Scoring per game: 17 (119th) vs. 25 (43rd) Turnover Margin: -13 (120th) Total Sacks: 20 (94th) vs. 40 (122nd) Saturday, October 15, TBA in the Dome vs. VIRGINIA TECH TV: TBA Another old enemy reappears on our schedule. We had quite a rivalry with the Hokies in the old days, featuring some of our most memorable victories and some of our most ignominious defeats. We saw the best of it up here as many of the games were classics: 28-9 in 1992, 28-20 in 1994, 52-21 in 1996, 28-26 in 1998, (McNabb to Brominski), 14-22 in 2000, (Freeney vs. Vick), 50-42 in 2002 (3OT). In Blacksburg is was a different story, (24-45, 7-31, 3-31, 0-62, 22-14, 7-51). Now we’ve got them back in the Dome for the first time in 14 years for what should be an intriguing game. Virginia Tech decided to do exactly what we did: bring in a guy who had success running a hurry-up offense at a lower level. Justin Fuentes was the coach at Memphis the last four years. He had a Briles-like record there: 4-8, 3-9, 10-3 and 9-4. He had a 15 game winning streak until losing 4 of his last 5 games there- to some very good teams, (11-2 Navy, 13-1 Houston, 10-4 Temple and 7-6 Auburn in the bowl game). The Tigers scored 40 points a game last year but he inherits an offense that was already scoring 31 points a game. They are looking for a new quarterback. Back-up Brendan Motley saw a lot of action, completing 56% for 1155 yards, 11TDs and 7int. He’ll try to fight off top JUCO Jerod Evans and high school blue chipper Dwayne Lawson. Fuente was Andy Dalton’s QB coach at TCU before developing Paxton Lynch at Memphis and he seems to have plenty to work with. Isaiah Ford had 75 catches for 1164 yards and 11 TDs. Cam Phillips had 49-582-2 and Bucky Hodges, a slash-type player who played tight-end, H-back, wide receiver and even a little QB, had 40-530-6. A coach told ESPN about Ford: “He’s dynamic, moves the chains, and makes big plays.” Ford is the program’s first 1000 yard receiver. Under Fuentes, he won’t be the last. They have an exceptional running back in Travon McMillian, who gained 1,043 yards (5.2 a crack) and scored 7 times). Through five games he had only 32 touches for 223 yards with no scores. Then he averaged 117 yards and a touchdown a game the rest of the way. I’ve said that I would have liked to see a Babers offense with a Shafer defense, if that were possible. Virginia Tech is essentially doing that as Fuentes has kept the great Bud Foster as his defensive coordinator after Foster gave Frank Beamer outstanding defenses all those years. “The defense continues to be led by a deep and talented crop of defensive tackles” (Lindy’s) Nigel Williams and Woody Bacon will be the starters. 6-5 270 Vinny Mihota blocked a kick vs. UNC and forced a big fumble vs. Pitt. “Since 2004, no program has more sacks than Virginia Tech’s 439.” (ESPN) They may have a weakness in the secondary. An opposing coach told ESPN: “They don’t have the secondary they’ve had in the past…The safeties traditionally are very good but the safeties in that secondary, (last year) didn’t have the same impact. “ “Fuente has pledged to continue Tech’s Beamer Ball tradition of excelling on special teams. He brought coordinator James Shibest with him from Memphis to manage that unit.” (Lindy’s). Greg Stroman took a punt back 67 yards for a score last year. Virginia Tech is trying to do some of the same things we are trying to do. But they have a program that has had 23 consecutive winning seasons so they are starting from a much stronger base and working with more talent. And retaining Bud Foster means that their defense won’t skip a beat while ours is trying to learn a whole new scheme that may not be appropriate for them. But it’s in the Dome, so who knows? Last year’s stats and rankings, offensive and defensive: Rushing yards per game: 159 (81st) vs. 181 (75th) Passing yards per game: 226 (64th) vs. 189 (19th) Total Yards per game: 385 (74th) vs. 370 (44th) Scoring per game: 31 (53rd) vs. 26 (59th) Turnover Margin: +4 (39th) Total Sacks: 26 (70th) vs. 34 (100th) Saturday, October 22, TBA at BOSTON COLLEGE TV: TBA Still another defense-oriented team that can’t score so they will want to make the game a slog through the mud, (and that would help), rather than a shoot-out. The Eagles had the #1 defense in the entire country last year, leading you to wonder what their numbers would have been if they had gotten any help at all from their offense. It wasn’t enough to win in modern football. They beat Maine, Howard and Northern Illinois and lost to everyone else, including Syracuse, who broke an 8 game losing streak against them. They actually outscored their opponents, on average 17-15 but their losses came by an average score of 11-21. But they held Florida State to 14 points, Duke to 9, Louisville to 17 and Notre Dame to 19 points. The Eagles had talons but a broken beak. Let’s start with the defense, which returns 8 starters but have a new DC, Jim Reid, from Iowa. Linebacker Matt Milano, “…is dynamic, quick and will be the leader”, (Lindy’s) Connor Strachan was the second leading tackler and takes over the MIKE, where he “might be even more physical and athletic than (his predecessor, (Steven) Daniels, a second team all-ACC linebacker last year” (ESPN). An opposing coach told ESPN “Their front seven are always big guys, very physical. They play together very well. They are more athletic in the secondary than they have been in the past.” Per Lindys, “Safety John Johnson and Cornerback Isaac Yiadom hung with some of the best receivers in the ACC last year and they’re back…” There’s some rebuilding in the line but Harold Landry had 4.5 sacks from one defensive end position. Zach Allen, (No, not THAT Zach Allen), on the other side is “very quick and looking to have a breakthrough season…Truman Gutaphel could be a true run-stuffing weapon” (Lindy’s) He’s by far the biggest lineman at 6-3 281. The others are 265, 264 and 245. The #1 defense is all about speed and conditioning. Maybe that’s a good sign for us. They have a good place kicker in Colton Lichtenberg. They need a new punter, (and teams like this need good ones), but Michael Walker is a fine kick returner. The big question, then, is: can they get this offense going? It was a mess last season. Lindys: “The offensive line is still major question mark, as it struggled mightily in 2015. The wide receiver group has been inconsistent, with several dropped passes and improper routes last year.” (Of course, if they did that consistently, then they weren’t inconsistent.) They used four different quarterbacks last year, all of whom completed between 33-52% of their passes, (the 33% guy was the one who threw the most passes, 82.) They produced 1,334 yards passing in 12 games, (111 per game, with 7 games where they failed to reach 100 yards), 8TDs and 9 interceptions. Three of those four were freshman: John Fadule, (who has had concussion problems), Troy Flutie, (Yup, Doug’s son- but he’s now suspended from the team for drunk driving), and Darius Wade, who is expected to battle Kentucky grad transfer Patrick Towles for the job. Towles hit 56% for the Wildcats last year with 9TDs and 14 interceptions, so it’s not clear he’s the answer, either. But he’s a load at 6-5, 253. Jon Hillman ran for 860 yards and 13TDs as a freshman but was injured last year. Baldwinsville’s Tyler Rouse rushed for 426 yards and 7TDs, including 111 yards and two touchdowns against SU. Jeff Smith ran for 450 yards at 6.3 yards per crack and 6TDs- including 117 yards against Syracuse. He’s now listed as a wide receiver. Thadd Smith is the leading returning receiver with- believe it or not- 17 but he has some speed and could stretch the field a bit and Tommy Sweeney has some talent at tight end. It wouldn’t take a lot of offense to make this a good team. If they can at least get something going they could be a formidable opponent on the road. Last year’s stats and rankings, offensive and defensive: Rushing yards per game: 164 (74th) vs. 83 (2nd) Passing yards per game: 111 (124th) vs. 171.5 (6th) Total Yards per game: 276 (125th) vs. 254 (1st) Scoring per game: 17 (120th) vs. 15 (4th) Turnover Margin: +3 (46th) Total Sacks: 34 (18th) vs.28 (79th) (We have the next week off and will probably need it.) [/QUOTE]
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