SWC75
Bored Historian
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The Schedule
For each team I’ll give the numbers and national rankings, (of 129 teams), in total yards, rushing yards, passing yards and scoring on both offense and defense as well as turnover margin. For comparison, here are those numbers in the first two years of the Babers regime in Syracuse:
2016
Offense: TY- 440.8 (42) RY- 119.6 (115) PY- 321.3 (11) S- 25.7 (80)
Defense: TY- 501.1 (122) RY- 225.0 (108) PY- 276.1 (118) s- 38.6 (120)
TO: -1 (75)
2017
Offense: TY- 456.3 (23) RY- 161.5 (70) PY- 294.8 (18) S- 27.4 (75)
Defense: TY- 444.0 (106) RY- 196.7 (99) PY- 247.3 (98) S- 32.2 (98)
TO: -12 (123)
The 2001 Dwight Freeney team was out-gained on the season but went 10-3 because they were +15 in turnovers. Last year’s team had the opposite situation. I don’t know what their record would have been if they’d broken even on turnovers but I would have liked to have found out.
Here’s another comparison – to the 65th ranked team of 129 - last year in each category:
Offense: TY- 398.5 RY- 164.0 PY- 233.4 S- 28.3
Defense: TY- 393.1 RY- 166.5 PY- 223.5 S- 26.6
TO: even
So here is our opposition for 2018.
(Quotes if not otherwise noted, are from Street & Smith’s, Athlon or Lindy’s)
Friday August 31 6PM at WESTERN MICHIGAN TV: CBS Sports Network
This is the sort of game I hate. We will get little credit for winning it but a lot of blame if we lose it and we could very well do so. It’s a road game against a MAC team that went 13-0 and was ranked #12 in the country until losing a very competitive Cotton Bowl to Wisconsin, 16-24. They’d beaten both Northwestern and Illinois that year. Last year they opened with road losses at Southern Cal, (31-49) and Michigan State (14-28). They won five of their next seven, (the losses coming by a total of 8 points) before injuries over-took them and they lost their final two for a 6-6 record. They’d had 21 players get season-ending injuries, including their two top running backs, yet they were able to break even. Now they are healthy again. As with Syracuse, the injuries give them unusual depth.
HC Tim Lester was Scott Shafer’s offensive coordinator. Scott’s defensive line coach, Tim Daoust, is his defensive coordinator. We don’t have a great record in games against our former coaches. Former assistant Randy Edsall, (see below) is 5-3 against us. Paul Pasqualoni beat us the first time we faced him at Connecticut, (but beat him the next year). We are 4-2 against former assistant Steve Addazio but his BC team blew our doors off last year. Scott Shafer came in as DC for Middle ten4nessee, another mid-major, last year and went out smoking a victory cigar. Lester surely wants to beat us, too. He recruited some of our players, including Dungey. He’ll have some help from Steve Clark, a former SU defensive tackle who is now on his staff as a G. A. and Juwan Dowels, one of those grad transfers from our defense, who will be playing for the Broncos. (Of course we have Vinson Reynolds, who used to be at WMU.)
Quarterback Jon Wassink completed 64.2% of his passes at 11.4 yards a pop for 14TDs and 4 interceptions until he broke his collarbone last year. They used a three-headed running back to rush for 225 yards per game and two of them are back after also having been injured last year. 5-7 188 Jamauri Bogan has 2,563 career rushing yards and 27TDs. Hey! Joe Morris was 5-7! He is coming back from a foot injury. LeVante Bellamy is a little taller at 5-9 185 but is “an explosive back when he’s healthy”. He played only 6 games last year but gained 394 yards in only 49 attempts – 8 yards per carry! He’s their Antwan Cordy, having had season ending injuries two years in a row, (knee, then ankle). He’s played a total of only 10 games. Cordy might be tackling Bellamy and some point and when down on the ground, they could commiserate with each other. Or not….
“WMU returns plenty of experience at receiver, led by juniors D’Wayne Eskridge (506 yards) and Keishawn Watson (41 catches). Lester moved oversized wideout Giovanni Ricci to right end where “he can just eat and be himself” (?) and, WMU is hoping, be a mismatch for linebackers and safeties.” They’ve also got four offensive linemen returning, including “all-conference honorees Luke Jurgia and John Keeney up front.”
They are proud of the defensive backfield: “Senior cornerback Sam Beal has the cover skills to make the NFL….The return of strong safety Justin Tranquill should solidify the secondary he was second on the team in tackles as a redshirt freshman but suffered a season-ending knee injury in week 2….”. A potential weakness is the front seven: they are, like us) replacing all three linebackers and up front “We’re searching”, per Lester. One gem he’ll find is DE Antonio Balabani. “He’s a fearsome presence around the left edge, accounting for four sacks, 7.5 tackles for a loss and a forced fumble last season.”
We are fortunate that Darius Phillips graduated. He set an FBS career record for touchdowns on returns: interceptions, fumbles, kickoffs and punts: 12). Josh Grant is a good field goal kicker, (15 of 23).Derrick Mitchell averaged 42.4 yards per punt.
This could actually be the most important game of the year. We can’t afford to lose any game we’re supposed to win and this team fully expects to beat us. It’s an SU tradition to get off schedule early and to have to play catch-up the rest of the season and in this critical year; this could happen to us immediately. If we have any post season ambitions, (and we certainly do), we have to avoid a slip-up here.
2017
Offense: TY- 389.6 (78) RY- 224.8 (21) PY- 164.8 (115) S- 33.9 (25)
Defense: TY- 378.5 (55) RY- 156.1 (53) PY- 222.4 (62) S- 29.8 (81)
TO: +8 (20)
Saturday September 8 3:30PM WAGNER TV: ACCNE
This is another of the types of games I hate. I don’t mind an FBS team having an early game against an FCS opponent to ease into the season. But nearly all of them have an FCS school they have a history with. Why not just continue those old rivalries? Why import teams from other states or schools that weren’t even at the FCS level until recently, teams with which their fans can’t relate on any basis? We’ve played Rhode Island, Stony Brook, Wagner and Central Connecticut State in recent years. Who could possibly care about these games? For decades Syracuse played Colgate every year in Archbold stadium, (where both schools could make more money than they playing at Colgate’s much smaller field). Why don’t we just open the season playing them in the Dome every year? Then we could have a home and Home with Army for game 2. For years we played Navy every year and Army infrequently, even though they are just down the thruway and everybody loves a trip to West Point to see a game. I’ve never heard the logic behind that, which makes me suspect that there isn’t any. Then the AD would only have to worry about scheduling two games a year- against a MAC or CUSA opponent and against a school from another Power Five conference, (but not necessarily a powerhouse from another Power Five conference). I guess it makes too much sense.
Colgate is typically better than the FCS team’s we’ve been playing but that’s not a bad thing. What’s the point in playing a game in which you aren’t even tested? That’s what happened last time we played Wagner. The game was 37-0 at halftime and 54-0 at the end. We out-gained them 595-87. We cheered for the scores but otherwise the prevailing attitude was “So what? This tells us nothing about how we will do in the rest of our games. We went 6-6 in the other games but were out-scored 241-330. The Red Raiders would have done better than Wagner and told us more about ourselves.
I’m also sensitive to seeing Wagner on the schedule because my brother went to Hamilton, which is about on the bottom of college football and they used to play Wagner all the time. I remember seeing a game against them one year in their rickety old high school like stadium. I saw the Seahawks win the Division III crown back in 1987 and rooted for them to do it. But that was Division III. I realize things change but seeing SU play Wagner seems almost demeaning. But they are no worse – or better - than Stoney Brook, Rhode Island, Southern Connecticut State, etc.
Last year the Seahawks were 4-7. They actually played Western Michigan – and lost 14-49. Nunes: “The offense returns its leading rusher and passer, and the offensive line actually has quite a bit of veteran talent as well. Three of the top five pass-catchers also return...quarterback Luke Massei completed 58.4 percent of his throws for 1,371 yards and seven touchdowns (versus eight interceptions). The Seahawks had five different players catch 19 or more passes, but none had more than 33 -- D’Erren Wilson, who had 392 yards and two scores as well. The run game was a little more capable, however. Ryan Fulse had 1,306 rushing yards (averaged six per carry) and 12 touchdowns.”
“Defensively, Wagner allowed 27.6 points per game, but didn’t necessarily get run over while doing it. The Seahawks forced 24 turnovers (not bad), and generated a significant pass rush, with 34 sacks. Linebacker Quintin Hampton was the star of the defense, notching 82 tackles while collecting seven sacks and 12 total tackles for loss. Fellow LB Cameron Gill led the team with 11 sacks. Five other players had at least three sacks apiece….The Seahawks return all three linebackers, who were the top tacklers on the team in 2017 — something that on its own could put them among the top teams in the NEC standings. Along with those players, Santoni Graham is also back to provide additional linebacker depth. Wagner’s two best defensive backs — Sterling Lowry and Tyamonee Johnson -- return as well.”
Fun fact: Central Connecticut State won Wagner’s conference last year and beat them 51-45. And we beat CCS 50-7. Expect something similar – and equally meaningless- this year against the Seahawks.
2017 (Rankings are FCS rankings of 123 teams)
Offense: TY- 320.2 (86) RY- 157.0 (55) PY- 163.2 (101) S- 21.3 (79)
Defense: TY- 356.6 (54) RY- 152.6 (62) PY- 204.0 (48) S- 27.6 (77)
TO: +2 (48)
Saturday September 16 Noon FLORIDA STATE TV: ABC/ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU
Back in 1966, Florida State came to Syracuse to play one of Ben Schwartzwalder’s best teams. They were a fancy passing team and we were a smash-mouth team with Larry Csonka and Floyd Little. We rushed for 337 yards in that game. Floyd had 193 of them and scored 3 times. We were +3 in turnovers and got a 44 yard punt return for a score by Tony Kyasky. That gave us a 20-0 second quarter lead. That was extended to 30-6 in the third quarter. Florida State got two fourth quarter scores and a two point conversion to make it respectable at 37-21 but we were knocking on the door for another score as we allowed the clock to run out, always a nice touch. Those Sunshine State boys never knew what hit them.
Not much has gone right for SU against FSU since as we’ve lost 10 games in a row to them. They “took out” Bill Hurley in 1978 on the opening drive with the “Hurley for Heisman” banners fluttering in the breeze and beat us 0-28. Walter Reyes fumbled in front of their goal line in the Dome in 2004 and we lost 17-13. Cole Murphy had a game-tying 43 yard field goal partially blocked, (they say), in a 24-27 loss last year. Those have been the high points. We got off to a 14-7 start against the #1 Seminoles in Tallahassee in 1991 and it could have been 21-7 except for a dropped pass in the end zone. The rest of the game was 0-39. The other games have been 10-41, 14-38, 3-59, (hey, we held them scoreless in the fourth quarter!), 20-38, 20-45 and 14-45. Last year’s game was a rare opportunity to beat them and we, of course, blew it. They had a disastrous season, by their standards, 7-6. They’ll snap back from that and win 10+ games and be a Top 10 team again, so how can we beat them?
Well, they might be so ready to ‘snap back’. Their coach, Jimbo Fisher, took the big money Texas A&M is doling out these days. He’ll be replaced by our old friend Willie Taggart, who resurrected the south Florida program in time to whip us in 2015 and 2016 before bugging out for Oregon. He’s back now because Florida State is his “dream job”. (No comment.) The problem is, he runs a spread and Jimbo ran a pro set. It will be similar to when Dino Babers took over from Scott Shafer and had to put in his offense and defense with Shafer’s players, except that Taggart will be doing it with much more talent. But there still could be adjustment problems.
They also have continuing quarterback problem. It’s not clear that Deondre Francois is over his torn patellar tendon injury that aborted his season last year. “Francois’ other issue is he needs to rebuild his reputation in the locker room after skipping one home game and multiple team meetings…and also having a couple of brushes with the law.” James Blackman, the guy who started their last 12 games, lacks Francois’ physical talents but “merits and A-plus in the intangible categories: he’s a natural leader and is exceedingly well-liked by his teammates and coaches.”
“There will be new names throughout FSU’S receiving corps but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. The group has under-whelmed in recent years and there is a feeling that that could change under Taggart’s direction.” The leading returnee, Nyquan Murray, had 604 yards receiving but less than 40 in each of the least four games.”
There’s nothing wrong with their running backs. Cam Akers, who ran through our defense like a hot knife through butter, ran for 1,025 yards as a freshman. Senior Jacques Patrick ran for 749 more and 5 star recruit Khalan LeBorn ran for 140 yards in the spring game. But their line was ”leaky”, permitting 32 sacks. “Red zone and short yardage running will be a tall task if this unit doesn’t improve in a hurry.”
They lose 6 of their 7 top tacklers on defense. Guess what- they are going with a 4-2-5 scheme. Their strength is in the backfield where the corners, Leonta Taylor and Sanford Samuels III allowed a passer rating of 26.1 when they were targeted, the lowest in the conference. (They would, of course, be covering our beloved sideline passes). “Versatile safety Hamsah Nasirildeen is a rising star.” Brian burns has 14 sacks in two years from his defensive end positon. Demarcus Christmas “is a physical tackle who stops the run well.”
They have a first class kicker in Ricky Aguayo, who was 18 for 21 in field goals. Punter Logan Tyler averaged 43.2. They have had “a brutal couple of seasons in the return game”.
Opposing coaches: “The big problem the new staff will face is the offense was recruited as a pro-style unit and the new staff is more of a spread, power-run type deal. Taggart likes to run his quarterback and likes to have that extra threat in the backfield. None of these quarterbacks on the roster are going to be a run game threat. They can scramble and pick up first downs but something is going to have to change. The biggest difference between the FSU that won it all in 2013 and now is the defense. They don’t get after the quarterback like they used to and, as important, they don’t cover like they used to. They used to man cover as good or better than anyone in college football. The last couple of years, guys in our league have been running wide open.”
FSU’s problems last year were more than the injury to Francois. Fisher’s recurring had declined since their national championship year and the team just wasn’t the same. They won’t return to that level immediately. We’ve pulled off a big upset in the Dome in each of Baber’s two years. The highest rated team to come to the Dome this year will likely be Florida State. It took 16 years to beat Penn State but we did it. When the Big East football conference was formed, it took us a long time to beat Miami but we did it. It’s time to beat Florida State.
2017
Offense: TY- 351.9 (100) RY- 155.7 (76) PY- 198.2 (89) S- 27.8 (71)
Defense: TY- 331.1 (18) RY- 135.6 (31) PY- 195.5 (29) S- 21.2 (29)
TO: -6 (102)
Saturday September 22 TBA CONNECTICUT TV: TBA
While Syracuse football declined in the last decade, two schools we had previously looked down on rose to something resembling the prominence we once had using a lot of players we might once have recruited. They were unable to maintain their success but they have still remained irritants to us ever since. Both had arrogant coaches to boot who looked down on our guys, (especially if their initials were Greg Robinson). One was Rutgers, (Greg Schiano) and the other was Connecticut (Randy Edsall). Edsall, after a stint at Maryland, has come back. He had wanted the SU job when Paul Pasqualoni got it. Both were assistants under Dick McPherson but Edsall had played here and been on the staff longer. After losing his first ‘reunion’ with his own school to Pasqualoni, 30-42, he beat Robinson 26-7, lost to him 14-20, then beat him 30-7 and 39-14, then beat Doug Marrone 56-31, (a game where they scored on a long bomb on the last play, which sent the exact message he had intended).
Now he’s back. Last year his Huskies went 3-9 and were out-scored by two touchdowns per game. Their defense was horrendous, giving up 519 yards and 38 points a game. Their big weakness is against the pass – where they were absolutely the worst in the country at 129th with 334 yards per game. We should be able to exploit that with our attack. They lost many players from that defense, which may not be a bad thing. Their three starting linemen and two of the three linebackers are gone. The secondary was “a carousel of inexperienced players” in the spring.
They can move the ball, (415 yards per game), but had the same trouble scoring we do: 23.6ppg. The quarterback is David Pindell, who started the final three games but completed only 53% of his passes 11.2 yards a pop. He threw 4TD passes but 6 interceptions. He does have good receivers in Hergy Mayala (43r/615y/7td), Keyion Dixon and Tyraig Beals, who “is showing promise as a field-stretching receiver….The Huskies have capable running backs in Kevin Mensah and Nate Hopkins. They combined for 904 yards and 11 touchdowns.”
The kickers are mediocre. Michael Tarbutt missed 6 of 18 field goal attempts, including a 33 yarder at the end of a 38-41 loss to East Carolina. “Brett Graham averaged just 38.8 yards per punt.”
Connecticut is better than Wagner but they seem well behind Western Michigan. We need to be at least 3-1 when this game is over.
2017
Offense: TY- 415.2 (50) RY- 146.0 (87) PY- 269.2 (34) S- 23.6 (102)
Defense: TY- 519.0 (126) RY- 185.1 (86) PY- 333.9 (129) S- 37.9 (121)
TO: -8 (113)
Saturday September 29 TBA at CLEMSON TV: TBA
We wounded the tiger last year and now we are going down to play in his cave. It seems like a bad idea.
We’ve had an interesting series with Clemson. We blew them out of the Gator Bowl back in ’95, 41-0. They were good then but not the perennial national championship contender they are right now. They were approaching that level when we joined the ACC. In 2013 they came to the Dome and blew us out 14-49. There seemed to be as many Clemson rooters as Syracuse rooters there. I was afraid to shout “Let’s Go Orange!”. One very friendly Clemson fan sat down next to me and we got to talking about that game and the Gator Bowl and he said “Well, you had McNabb and Harrison then. We have Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins.” It made me wonder when we could get that turned back in our favor. What I didn’t know, (and maybe neither did he), was that Dabo Swinney, who played and coached at Alabama before coming to Clemson, was building a program designed to challenge his alma mater for college football supremacy on an annual basis.
The next year we travelled to Clemson and did not get blown out. We had an excellent defense that year but no offense thanks to a wave of injuries that destroyed our offensive line. it also helped that DeShaun Watson, who turned out to be even better than Tajh Boyd, was out with an injury. We led this game 6-3 at halftime but spent the second half just punting it back to the Tigers, who eventually pulled in front, 6-16. The next year, Eric Dungey was out for us and they had Watson, who passed for 368 yards and 2 scores and ran for 109 yards and another TD. But it wasn’t a blow-out. We somehow ran for 265 yards and three TDs on them, (two by Zach Mahoney), and traded scores with them the whole game until they pulled ahead at 27-37 at the end. You watched those games and if you didn’t know better, you might think the two schools had comparable programs.
There was no such illusion in 2016. Eric Dungey played but went down early and that started a four quarter feeding frenzy for the Tigers, who devoured us 0-54, on their way to the national championship. We looked like Wagner, except we did gain 277 yards but gave up 565. Being -3 in turnovers didn’t help, either. It looked like a lightweight against a heavyweight and you wondered how we could ever compete with these guys.
Then came last year. We slugged it out in the Dome with the #2 team in the country and somehow won, 27-24, the highest ranked team we’d beaten since the 1984 Nebraska game. We were never behind the whole game, scoring first and answering each of the three times Clemson tied it. We were out-gained but only 337-440 and got the game’s only turnover. I kept reminding myself, looking at the Tigers, “That’s the team that took on Alabama for the last two national championships, won one and nearly won the other, and we are competing with them”. That’s the great thing about college football. Certain schools have advantages in budget, facilities, location, academic requirements and recent winning tradition. But those are all advantages in recruiting teenagers. They can be ranked according to their high school careers but that doesn’t tell you how they will rank in the college careers. It’s a game where you can elevate your team with dominant performances from certain positions, which as quarterback, defensive tackle or linebacker. And it’s an emotional game. Clemson had beaten us 0-54 the previous year and had no expectation that we could beat them, just as Nebraska had beaten us 63-7 in their place in 1983 and thought they would have no trouble in our place the next year.
Naturally the expectation is that Clemson will gain revenge in their place. I’m sure they have plans for us that involve sticking an apple in our mouth. But there’s another precedent from the 80’s that might be relevant here. We finally beat Penn State in 1987 after sixteen straight losses. Everyone expected they would gain revenge the next year, back in their place. They didn’t. We won that one, too, 24-10, and it was a signal that we were here to stay in the winning column. We wound up with 15 winning records in a row.
You can’t buy a pre-season football magazine without seeing a picture of four very large Clemson players smiling, grimacing or shouting at the camera. Their names are Clelin Ferrell, (6-5 250, DE), Dexter Lawrence, (6-4 340 DT), Christian Wilkins, (6-4 300 DT), and Austin Bryant, (6-5 265 DE), and they may be the greatest college defensive line ever. It’s been suggested they could move into the NFL as a unit and do well. Ferrell, Wilkins and Bryant could all have gone pro but did not. Those four guys had 209 tackles last year, 43 for a loss and 25 sacks. “This is just unfair. The Tigers would’ve been hard to block even if Wilkins, Ferrell and Bryant had gone pro….This defensive line just comes at you in waves and (DC) Brent Venables should be able to rotate frequently this season with an assortment of backups who would be starters at most places.”
They’ve lost their top linebacker, Dorian O’Daniel, but get the rest back. Kendall Joseph is “tough and physical” while Isaiah Simmons is “rangy and fast”. The secondary “endured a wave of injuries last year.” They also had three top guys graduate. But this is Clemson, where they replace players with guys you wish you had. Despite their injuries, they had the 4th best pass defense in the country. Their cornerbacks: “Trayvon Mullen, Mark Fields and AJ Terrell happen to be really good.”
Kelly Bryant was the quarterback last season and he did a decent job (66%, 10.7 a shot, 13TDs, 8 int, 665 yards rushing with 11 TDs), but wasn’t DeShaun Watson or even Tajh Boyd. The Tigers have recruited a Georgia phenom named Trevor Lawrence who is “lavishly talented” and “elite passer and runner”. Clemson is known as “Wide Receiver U.” They will be rebuilding this year but doing it with elite talent. Hunter Renfrow is “a third down menace”. Amari Rodgers will be “a dynamic weapon”. Swinney recruited Justyn Ross form Alabama, “to the immense frustration of Nick Saban and Gus Malzahn”. Tee Higgins is “A tall athletic wideout”.
Tavien Feaster, Travis Etienne and Adam Choice combined for 1761 yards rushing and 26TDs last year. Their offensive line was manhandled by Alabama last year and is “angry and vengeful”. They return four starters and have an AA candidate in left tackle Mitch Hyatt. Swinney got a 5 star tackle candidate away from urban Meyer in Ohio, Jackson Carman and “he looks like a future star”
Greg Huegel is back as their placekicker after tearing an ACL last year. So is his replacement, Alex Spence, who made 9 fo 14FG. (Huegel is 43 of 55 for his career.) Will Spiers averaged 40.6 yards per punt. They lost Ray-Ray McCloud a big-time punt returner. Travis Etienne was their best kickoff return guy last year but averaged only 20.5.
Clemson, with the Pitt loss in 2016 and the SU game last year, seems have developed a habit, similar to USC a decade ago, of losing a game each year that nobody expects them to lose. The difference is, Clemson can still get into a four team playoff. Actually, Alabama has that habit, too. Believe it or not, Nick Saban hasn’t gone undefeated in this decade. Could it be that our big upset this year won’t be in the Dome, but on the road?
Probably not….
2017
Offense: TY- 429.6 (38) RY- 194.1 (35) PY- 235.5 (61) S- 33.3 (32)
Defense: TY- 276.7 (4) RY- 114.9 (12) PY- 161.9 (4) S- 13.6 (2)
TO: +4 (43)
For each team I’ll give the numbers and national rankings, (of 129 teams), in total yards, rushing yards, passing yards and scoring on both offense and defense as well as turnover margin. For comparison, here are those numbers in the first two years of the Babers regime in Syracuse:
2016
Offense: TY- 440.8 (42) RY- 119.6 (115) PY- 321.3 (11) S- 25.7 (80)
Defense: TY- 501.1 (122) RY- 225.0 (108) PY- 276.1 (118) s- 38.6 (120)
TO: -1 (75)
2017
Offense: TY- 456.3 (23) RY- 161.5 (70) PY- 294.8 (18) S- 27.4 (75)
Defense: TY- 444.0 (106) RY- 196.7 (99) PY- 247.3 (98) S- 32.2 (98)
TO: -12 (123)
The 2001 Dwight Freeney team was out-gained on the season but went 10-3 because they were +15 in turnovers. Last year’s team had the opposite situation. I don’t know what their record would have been if they’d broken even on turnovers but I would have liked to have found out.
Here’s another comparison – to the 65th ranked team of 129 - last year in each category:
Offense: TY- 398.5 RY- 164.0 PY- 233.4 S- 28.3
Defense: TY- 393.1 RY- 166.5 PY- 223.5 S- 26.6
TO: even
So here is our opposition for 2018.
(Quotes if not otherwise noted, are from Street & Smith’s, Athlon or Lindy’s)
Friday August 31 6PM at WESTERN MICHIGAN TV: CBS Sports Network
This is the sort of game I hate. We will get little credit for winning it but a lot of blame if we lose it and we could very well do so. It’s a road game against a MAC team that went 13-0 and was ranked #12 in the country until losing a very competitive Cotton Bowl to Wisconsin, 16-24. They’d beaten both Northwestern and Illinois that year. Last year they opened with road losses at Southern Cal, (31-49) and Michigan State (14-28). They won five of their next seven, (the losses coming by a total of 8 points) before injuries over-took them and they lost their final two for a 6-6 record. They’d had 21 players get season-ending injuries, including their two top running backs, yet they were able to break even. Now they are healthy again. As with Syracuse, the injuries give them unusual depth.
HC Tim Lester was Scott Shafer’s offensive coordinator. Scott’s defensive line coach, Tim Daoust, is his defensive coordinator. We don’t have a great record in games against our former coaches. Former assistant Randy Edsall, (see below) is 5-3 against us. Paul Pasqualoni beat us the first time we faced him at Connecticut, (but beat him the next year). We are 4-2 against former assistant Steve Addazio but his BC team blew our doors off last year. Scott Shafer came in as DC for Middle ten4nessee, another mid-major, last year and went out smoking a victory cigar. Lester surely wants to beat us, too. He recruited some of our players, including Dungey. He’ll have some help from Steve Clark, a former SU defensive tackle who is now on his staff as a G. A. and Juwan Dowels, one of those grad transfers from our defense, who will be playing for the Broncos. (Of course we have Vinson Reynolds, who used to be at WMU.)
Quarterback Jon Wassink completed 64.2% of his passes at 11.4 yards a pop for 14TDs and 4 interceptions until he broke his collarbone last year. They used a three-headed running back to rush for 225 yards per game and two of them are back after also having been injured last year. 5-7 188 Jamauri Bogan has 2,563 career rushing yards and 27TDs. Hey! Joe Morris was 5-7! He is coming back from a foot injury. LeVante Bellamy is a little taller at 5-9 185 but is “an explosive back when he’s healthy”. He played only 6 games last year but gained 394 yards in only 49 attempts – 8 yards per carry! He’s their Antwan Cordy, having had season ending injuries two years in a row, (knee, then ankle). He’s played a total of only 10 games. Cordy might be tackling Bellamy and some point and when down on the ground, they could commiserate with each other. Or not….
“WMU returns plenty of experience at receiver, led by juniors D’Wayne Eskridge (506 yards) and Keishawn Watson (41 catches). Lester moved oversized wideout Giovanni Ricci to right end where “he can just eat and be himself” (?) and, WMU is hoping, be a mismatch for linebackers and safeties.” They’ve also got four offensive linemen returning, including “all-conference honorees Luke Jurgia and John Keeney up front.”
They are proud of the defensive backfield: “Senior cornerback Sam Beal has the cover skills to make the NFL….The return of strong safety Justin Tranquill should solidify the secondary he was second on the team in tackles as a redshirt freshman but suffered a season-ending knee injury in week 2….”. A potential weakness is the front seven: they are, like us) replacing all three linebackers and up front “We’re searching”, per Lester. One gem he’ll find is DE Antonio Balabani. “He’s a fearsome presence around the left edge, accounting for four sacks, 7.5 tackles for a loss and a forced fumble last season.”
We are fortunate that Darius Phillips graduated. He set an FBS career record for touchdowns on returns: interceptions, fumbles, kickoffs and punts: 12). Josh Grant is a good field goal kicker, (15 of 23).Derrick Mitchell averaged 42.4 yards per punt.
This could actually be the most important game of the year. We can’t afford to lose any game we’re supposed to win and this team fully expects to beat us. It’s an SU tradition to get off schedule early and to have to play catch-up the rest of the season and in this critical year; this could happen to us immediately. If we have any post season ambitions, (and we certainly do), we have to avoid a slip-up here.
2017
Offense: TY- 389.6 (78) RY- 224.8 (21) PY- 164.8 (115) S- 33.9 (25)
Defense: TY- 378.5 (55) RY- 156.1 (53) PY- 222.4 (62) S- 29.8 (81)
TO: +8 (20)
Saturday September 8 3:30PM WAGNER TV: ACCNE
This is another of the types of games I hate. I don’t mind an FBS team having an early game against an FCS opponent to ease into the season. But nearly all of them have an FCS school they have a history with. Why not just continue those old rivalries? Why import teams from other states or schools that weren’t even at the FCS level until recently, teams with which their fans can’t relate on any basis? We’ve played Rhode Island, Stony Brook, Wagner and Central Connecticut State in recent years. Who could possibly care about these games? For decades Syracuse played Colgate every year in Archbold stadium, (where both schools could make more money than they playing at Colgate’s much smaller field). Why don’t we just open the season playing them in the Dome every year? Then we could have a home and Home with Army for game 2. For years we played Navy every year and Army infrequently, even though they are just down the thruway and everybody loves a trip to West Point to see a game. I’ve never heard the logic behind that, which makes me suspect that there isn’t any. Then the AD would only have to worry about scheduling two games a year- against a MAC or CUSA opponent and against a school from another Power Five conference, (but not necessarily a powerhouse from another Power Five conference). I guess it makes too much sense.
Colgate is typically better than the FCS team’s we’ve been playing but that’s not a bad thing. What’s the point in playing a game in which you aren’t even tested? That’s what happened last time we played Wagner. The game was 37-0 at halftime and 54-0 at the end. We out-gained them 595-87. We cheered for the scores but otherwise the prevailing attitude was “So what? This tells us nothing about how we will do in the rest of our games. We went 6-6 in the other games but were out-scored 241-330. The Red Raiders would have done better than Wagner and told us more about ourselves.
I’m also sensitive to seeing Wagner on the schedule because my brother went to Hamilton, which is about on the bottom of college football and they used to play Wagner all the time. I remember seeing a game against them one year in their rickety old high school like stadium. I saw the Seahawks win the Division III crown back in 1987 and rooted for them to do it. But that was Division III. I realize things change but seeing SU play Wagner seems almost demeaning. But they are no worse – or better - than Stoney Brook, Rhode Island, Southern Connecticut State, etc.
Last year the Seahawks were 4-7. They actually played Western Michigan – and lost 14-49. Nunes: “The offense returns its leading rusher and passer, and the offensive line actually has quite a bit of veteran talent as well. Three of the top five pass-catchers also return...quarterback Luke Massei completed 58.4 percent of his throws for 1,371 yards and seven touchdowns (versus eight interceptions). The Seahawks had five different players catch 19 or more passes, but none had more than 33 -- D’Erren Wilson, who had 392 yards and two scores as well. The run game was a little more capable, however. Ryan Fulse had 1,306 rushing yards (averaged six per carry) and 12 touchdowns.”
“Defensively, Wagner allowed 27.6 points per game, but didn’t necessarily get run over while doing it. The Seahawks forced 24 turnovers (not bad), and generated a significant pass rush, with 34 sacks. Linebacker Quintin Hampton was the star of the defense, notching 82 tackles while collecting seven sacks and 12 total tackles for loss. Fellow LB Cameron Gill led the team with 11 sacks. Five other players had at least three sacks apiece….The Seahawks return all three linebackers, who were the top tacklers on the team in 2017 — something that on its own could put them among the top teams in the NEC standings. Along with those players, Santoni Graham is also back to provide additional linebacker depth. Wagner’s two best defensive backs — Sterling Lowry and Tyamonee Johnson -- return as well.”
Fun fact: Central Connecticut State won Wagner’s conference last year and beat them 51-45. And we beat CCS 50-7. Expect something similar – and equally meaningless- this year against the Seahawks.
2017 (Rankings are FCS rankings of 123 teams)
Offense: TY- 320.2 (86) RY- 157.0 (55) PY- 163.2 (101) S- 21.3 (79)
Defense: TY- 356.6 (54) RY- 152.6 (62) PY- 204.0 (48) S- 27.6 (77)
TO: +2 (48)
Saturday September 16 Noon FLORIDA STATE TV: ABC/ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU
Back in 1966, Florida State came to Syracuse to play one of Ben Schwartzwalder’s best teams. They were a fancy passing team and we were a smash-mouth team with Larry Csonka and Floyd Little. We rushed for 337 yards in that game. Floyd had 193 of them and scored 3 times. We were +3 in turnovers and got a 44 yard punt return for a score by Tony Kyasky. That gave us a 20-0 second quarter lead. That was extended to 30-6 in the third quarter. Florida State got two fourth quarter scores and a two point conversion to make it respectable at 37-21 but we were knocking on the door for another score as we allowed the clock to run out, always a nice touch. Those Sunshine State boys never knew what hit them.
Not much has gone right for SU against FSU since as we’ve lost 10 games in a row to them. They “took out” Bill Hurley in 1978 on the opening drive with the “Hurley for Heisman” banners fluttering in the breeze and beat us 0-28. Walter Reyes fumbled in front of their goal line in the Dome in 2004 and we lost 17-13. Cole Murphy had a game-tying 43 yard field goal partially blocked, (they say), in a 24-27 loss last year. Those have been the high points. We got off to a 14-7 start against the #1 Seminoles in Tallahassee in 1991 and it could have been 21-7 except for a dropped pass in the end zone. The rest of the game was 0-39. The other games have been 10-41, 14-38, 3-59, (hey, we held them scoreless in the fourth quarter!), 20-38, 20-45 and 14-45. Last year’s game was a rare opportunity to beat them and we, of course, blew it. They had a disastrous season, by their standards, 7-6. They’ll snap back from that and win 10+ games and be a Top 10 team again, so how can we beat them?
Well, they might be so ready to ‘snap back’. Their coach, Jimbo Fisher, took the big money Texas A&M is doling out these days. He’ll be replaced by our old friend Willie Taggart, who resurrected the south Florida program in time to whip us in 2015 and 2016 before bugging out for Oregon. He’s back now because Florida State is his “dream job”. (No comment.) The problem is, he runs a spread and Jimbo ran a pro set. It will be similar to when Dino Babers took over from Scott Shafer and had to put in his offense and defense with Shafer’s players, except that Taggart will be doing it with much more talent. But there still could be adjustment problems.
They also have continuing quarterback problem. It’s not clear that Deondre Francois is over his torn patellar tendon injury that aborted his season last year. “Francois’ other issue is he needs to rebuild his reputation in the locker room after skipping one home game and multiple team meetings…and also having a couple of brushes with the law.” James Blackman, the guy who started their last 12 games, lacks Francois’ physical talents but “merits and A-plus in the intangible categories: he’s a natural leader and is exceedingly well-liked by his teammates and coaches.”
“There will be new names throughout FSU’S receiving corps but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. The group has under-whelmed in recent years and there is a feeling that that could change under Taggart’s direction.” The leading returnee, Nyquan Murray, had 604 yards receiving but less than 40 in each of the least four games.”
There’s nothing wrong with their running backs. Cam Akers, who ran through our defense like a hot knife through butter, ran for 1,025 yards as a freshman. Senior Jacques Patrick ran for 749 more and 5 star recruit Khalan LeBorn ran for 140 yards in the spring game. But their line was ”leaky”, permitting 32 sacks. “Red zone and short yardage running will be a tall task if this unit doesn’t improve in a hurry.”
They lose 6 of their 7 top tacklers on defense. Guess what- they are going with a 4-2-5 scheme. Their strength is in the backfield where the corners, Leonta Taylor and Sanford Samuels III allowed a passer rating of 26.1 when they were targeted, the lowest in the conference. (They would, of course, be covering our beloved sideline passes). “Versatile safety Hamsah Nasirildeen is a rising star.” Brian burns has 14 sacks in two years from his defensive end positon. Demarcus Christmas “is a physical tackle who stops the run well.”
They have a first class kicker in Ricky Aguayo, who was 18 for 21 in field goals. Punter Logan Tyler averaged 43.2. They have had “a brutal couple of seasons in the return game”.
Opposing coaches: “The big problem the new staff will face is the offense was recruited as a pro-style unit and the new staff is more of a spread, power-run type deal. Taggart likes to run his quarterback and likes to have that extra threat in the backfield. None of these quarterbacks on the roster are going to be a run game threat. They can scramble and pick up first downs but something is going to have to change. The biggest difference between the FSU that won it all in 2013 and now is the defense. They don’t get after the quarterback like they used to and, as important, they don’t cover like they used to. They used to man cover as good or better than anyone in college football. The last couple of years, guys in our league have been running wide open.”
FSU’s problems last year were more than the injury to Francois. Fisher’s recurring had declined since their national championship year and the team just wasn’t the same. They won’t return to that level immediately. We’ve pulled off a big upset in the Dome in each of Baber’s two years. The highest rated team to come to the Dome this year will likely be Florida State. It took 16 years to beat Penn State but we did it. When the Big East football conference was formed, it took us a long time to beat Miami but we did it. It’s time to beat Florida State.
2017
Offense: TY- 351.9 (100) RY- 155.7 (76) PY- 198.2 (89) S- 27.8 (71)
Defense: TY- 331.1 (18) RY- 135.6 (31) PY- 195.5 (29) S- 21.2 (29)
TO: -6 (102)
Saturday September 22 TBA CONNECTICUT TV: TBA
While Syracuse football declined in the last decade, two schools we had previously looked down on rose to something resembling the prominence we once had using a lot of players we might once have recruited. They were unable to maintain their success but they have still remained irritants to us ever since. Both had arrogant coaches to boot who looked down on our guys, (especially if their initials were Greg Robinson). One was Rutgers, (Greg Schiano) and the other was Connecticut (Randy Edsall). Edsall, after a stint at Maryland, has come back. He had wanted the SU job when Paul Pasqualoni got it. Both were assistants under Dick McPherson but Edsall had played here and been on the staff longer. After losing his first ‘reunion’ with his own school to Pasqualoni, 30-42, he beat Robinson 26-7, lost to him 14-20, then beat him 30-7 and 39-14, then beat Doug Marrone 56-31, (a game where they scored on a long bomb on the last play, which sent the exact message he had intended).
Now he’s back. Last year his Huskies went 3-9 and were out-scored by two touchdowns per game. Their defense was horrendous, giving up 519 yards and 38 points a game. Their big weakness is against the pass – where they were absolutely the worst in the country at 129th with 334 yards per game. We should be able to exploit that with our attack. They lost many players from that defense, which may not be a bad thing. Their three starting linemen and two of the three linebackers are gone. The secondary was “a carousel of inexperienced players” in the spring.
They can move the ball, (415 yards per game), but had the same trouble scoring we do: 23.6ppg. The quarterback is David Pindell, who started the final three games but completed only 53% of his passes 11.2 yards a pop. He threw 4TD passes but 6 interceptions. He does have good receivers in Hergy Mayala (43r/615y/7td), Keyion Dixon and Tyraig Beals, who “is showing promise as a field-stretching receiver….The Huskies have capable running backs in Kevin Mensah and Nate Hopkins. They combined for 904 yards and 11 touchdowns.”
The kickers are mediocre. Michael Tarbutt missed 6 of 18 field goal attempts, including a 33 yarder at the end of a 38-41 loss to East Carolina. “Brett Graham averaged just 38.8 yards per punt.”
Connecticut is better than Wagner but they seem well behind Western Michigan. We need to be at least 3-1 when this game is over.
2017
Offense: TY- 415.2 (50) RY- 146.0 (87) PY- 269.2 (34) S- 23.6 (102)
Defense: TY- 519.0 (126) RY- 185.1 (86) PY- 333.9 (129) S- 37.9 (121)
TO: -8 (113)
Saturday September 29 TBA at CLEMSON TV: TBA
We wounded the tiger last year and now we are going down to play in his cave. It seems like a bad idea.
We’ve had an interesting series with Clemson. We blew them out of the Gator Bowl back in ’95, 41-0. They were good then but not the perennial national championship contender they are right now. They were approaching that level when we joined the ACC. In 2013 they came to the Dome and blew us out 14-49. There seemed to be as many Clemson rooters as Syracuse rooters there. I was afraid to shout “Let’s Go Orange!”. One very friendly Clemson fan sat down next to me and we got to talking about that game and the Gator Bowl and he said “Well, you had McNabb and Harrison then. We have Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins.” It made me wonder when we could get that turned back in our favor. What I didn’t know, (and maybe neither did he), was that Dabo Swinney, who played and coached at Alabama before coming to Clemson, was building a program designed to challenge his alma mater for college football supremacy on an annual basis.
The next year we travelled to Clemson and did not get blown out. We had an excellent defense that year but no offense thanks to a wave of injuries that destroyed our offensive line. it also helped that DeShaun Watson, who turned out to be even better than Tajh Boyd, was out with an injury. We led this game 6-3 at halftime but spent the second half just punting it back to the Tigers, who eventually pulled in front, 6-16. The next year, Eric Dungey was out for us and they had Watson, who passed for 368 yards and 2 scores and ran for 109 yards and another TD. But it wasn’t a blow-out. We somehow ran for 265 yards and three TDs on them, (two by Zach Mahoney), and traded scores with them the whole game until they pulled ahead at 27-37 at the end. You watched those games and if you didn’t know better, you might think the two schools had comparable programs.
There was no such illusion in 2016. Eric Dungey played but went down early and that started a four quarter feeding frenzy for the Tigers, who devoured us 0-54, on their way to the national championship. We looked like Wagner, except we did gain 277 yards but gave up 565. Being -3 in turnovers didn’t help, either. It looked like a lightweight against a heavyweight and you wondered how we could ever compete with these guys.
Then came last year. We slugged it out in the Dome with the #2 team in the country and somehow won, 27-24, the highest ranked team we’d beaten since the 1984 Nebraska game. We were never behind the whole game, scoring first and answering each of the three times Clemson tied it. We were out-gained but only 337-440 and got the game’s only turnover. I kept reminding myself, looking at the Tigers, “That’s the team that took on Alabama for the last two national championships, won one and nearly won the other, and we are competing with them”. That’s the great thing about college football. Certain schools have advantages in budget, facilities, location, academic requirements and recent winning tradition. But those are all advantages in recruiting teenagers. They can be ranked according to their high school careers but that doesn’t tell you how they will rank in the college careers. It’s a game where you can elevate your team with dominant performances from certain positions, which as quarterback, defensive tackle or linebacker. And it’s an emotional game. Clemson had beaten us 0-54 the previous year and had no expectation that we could beat them, just as Nebraska had beaten us 63-7 in their place in 1983 and thought they would have no trouble in our place the next year.
Naturally the expectation is that Clemson will gain revenge in their place. I’m sure they have plans for us that involve sticking an apple in our mouth. But there’s another precedent from the 80’s that might be relevant here. We finally beat Penn State in 1987 after sixteen straight losses. Everyone expected they would gain revenge the next year, back in their place. They didn’t. We won that one, too, 24-10, and it was a signal that we were here to stay in the winning column. We wound up with 15 winning records in a row.
You can’t buy a pre-season football magazine without seeing a picture of four very large Clemson players smiling, grimacing or shouting at the camera. Their names are Clelin Ferrell, (6-5 250, DE), Dexter Lawrence, (6-4 340 DT), Christian Wilkins, (6-4 300 DT), and Austin Bryant, (6-5 265 DE), and they may be the greatest college defensive line ever. It’s been suggested they could move into the NFL as a unit and do well. Ferrell, Wilkins and Bryant could all have gone pro but did not. Those four guys had 209 tackles last year, 43 for a loss and 25 sacks. “This is just unfair. The Tigers would’ve been hard to block even if Wilkins, Ferrell and Bryant had gone pro….This defensive line just comes at you in waves and (DC) Brent Venables should be able to rotate frequently this season with an assortment of backups who would be starters at most places.”
They’ve lost their top linebacker, Dorian O’Daniel, but get the rest back. Kendall Joseph is “tough and physical” while Isaiah Simmons is “rangy and fast”. The secondary “endured a wave of injuries last year.” They also had three top guys graduate. But this is Clemson, where they replace players with guys you wish you had. Despite their injuries, they had the 4th best pass defense in the country. Their cornerbacks: “Trayvon Mullen, Mark Fields and AJ Terrell happen to be really good.”
Kelly Bryant was the quarterback last season and he did a decent job (66%, 10.7 a shot, 13TDs, 8 int, 665 yards rushing with 11 TDs), but wasn’t DeShaun Watson or even Tajh Boyd. The Tigers have recruited a Georgia phenom named Trevor Lawrence who is “lavishly talented” and “elite passer and runner”. Clemson is known as “Wide Receiver U.” They will be rebuilding this year but doing it with elite talent. Hunter Renfrow is “a third down menace”. Amari Rodgers will be “a dynamic weapon”. Swinney recruited Justyn Ross form Alabama, “to the immense frustration of Nick Saban and Gus Malzahn”. Tee Higgins is “A tall athletic wideout”.
Tavien Feaster, Travis Etienne and Adam Choice combined for 1761 yards rushing and 26TDs last year. Their offensive line was manhandled by Alabama last year and is “angry and vengeful”. They return four starters and have an AA candidate in left tackle Mitch Hyatt. Swinney got a 5 star tackle candidate away from urban Meyer in Ohio, Jackson Carman and “he looks like a future star”
Greg Huegel is back as their placekicker after tearing an ACL last year. So is his replacement, Alex Spence, who made 9 fo 14FG. (Huegel is 43 of 55 for his career.) Will Spiers averaged 40.6 yards per punt. They lost Ray-Ray McCloud a big-time punt returner. Travis Etienne was their best kickoff return guy last year but averaged only 20.5.
Clemson, with the Pitt loss in 2016 and the SU game last year, seems have developed a habit, similar to USC a decade ago, of losing a game each year that nobody expects them to lose. The difference is, Clemson can still get into a four team playoff. Actually, Alabama has that habit, too. Believe it or not, Nick Saban hasn’t gone undefeated in this decade. Could it be that our big upset this year won’t be in the Dome, but on the road?
Probably not….
2017
Offense: TY- 429.6 (38) RY- 194.1 (35) PY- 235.5 (61) S- 33.3 (32)
Defense: TY- 276.7 (4) RY- 114.9 (12) PY- 161.9 (4) S- 13.6 (2)
TO: +4 (43)
