SWC75
Bored Historian
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(I'll break this up into a series of posts due to length.)
Mission: Possible
Good morning, Coach, Babers. Your mission, should you decide to accept it, (and you already have), is to get Syracuse University’s football team to a bowl game this year. You must do this while playing in the Atlantic Division of the ACC, which may be the most difficult division in college football. You are unanimously projected to finish last in that division, as you did last year, when you were the only team in the division that didn’t have a winning record.
You must open your season on the road playing Western Michigan, a school that went 13-1 two years ago and is coached by Tim Lester, your predecessors’ offensive coordinator. One of his defensive backs will be Juwan Dowells, who played at Syracuse last year, (he’s a grad transfer) and thus knows our defense- and our offense, having practiced against it. The defensive coordinator, Tim Daoust, also used to coach here and knows our most experienced personnel. The memory of last year’s Dome loss to Middle Tennessee State, whose defensive coordinator was you predecessor Scott Shafer, is still fresh in people’s minds, as is the memory of Shafer lighting up a victory cigar after the game. Historically, we don’t do well in games like this, (Paul Pasqualoni beat us the first time he coached Connecticut).
In your third game, you will play Florida State, a perennial national power who had a down season last year, in part because they lost their talented young quarterback, Deondre Francois, early in the year. We still couldn’t beat them and Francois is back. We’ve beaten the Seminoles exactly once in our history Floyd Little had one of his biggest days. It was 1966, 52 years ago.
In game five, you will travel to Clemson, another perennial power who beat you don there two years ago 0-54. You had the greatest victory of your career so far against them in the Dome last season, 27-24. They are expected to contend for the national championship again this year and your team will be right in their cross hairs.
Then you will travel to Pittsburgh, where we last won in 2001. We end with games against NC State, Wake Forest, Louisville, Notre Dame and Boston College. Four of those teams beat us last year and the other is Notre Dame. You team has been 1-15 in November the last four year and you didn’t get the ‘1’ – Shafer did.
You will have to beat these teams with a quarterback who has yet to finish a season due to injuries, a receiving corps that has been deprived of two receivers who caught 194 balls between them and your entire linebacking corps and your place-kicker gone.
Should your mission fail, the secretary will not disavow any knowledge of your actions but it will become harder to recruit because nobody will view Syracuse as a coming program anymore and rumors of you being on the hot seat will increase. If you can’t recruit, you can’t get better and your eventual self-destruction will be made more likely. And, if that happens, we won’t know where to go next and our reputation as a bottom-feeder will be cemented.
Good luck, Dino!
We now see Babers in his office, looking over his assets: a versatile three year starter at quarterback backed up not by a junior college walk-on but by a guy who figures to be our next star quarterback, perhaps even better, and another recruited QB who was also thought to be a potential successor. A young offensive line that improved during the season last year, will get back a starter from the previous year and a grad transfer who started for Texas A&M. A defensive line with an Outland-quality tackle and some talented edge rushers and depth it hasn’t had for years. A defensive backfield with a good mix of experienced players and highly-regarded recruits. A third year of recruiting his type of players and a roster of veterans who have had 2-3 years in his offensive and defensive systems, as well as his conditioning program. There’s also the potential shown and optimism created by high profile upsets over Virginia Tech and Clemson the last two years and several competitive games against ranked teams last year.
The First Third Year
Dino talks about this being his “first third year”. He moved on from Eastern Illinois and then Bowling Green after two years. SU fans were wondering how long he might be here but last year’s 0-5 finish ended that speculation. The bigger the ship, the harder it is to turn around, especially in the deep end of the pool. (How do you like that for juggling metaphors?). This team is becoming more and more a Dino Babers team as he depends less and less on inherited players. I think we’ll get to see more of what a Dino Babers team looks like.
Let’s look at his Eastern Illinois and Bowling Green teams to get a glimpse of what Babers ideally wants to be able to do. This was against much lesser completion so I don’t think we are likely to see numbers as prolific as this, (especially EIU season 2), playing in the ACC Atlantic. But the distribution of carries and catches, passes and runs, etc. is interesting. (Defensive numbers are a reflection of what the other team’s offense is trying to do, so I’ll skip them.)
EIU season 1: https://eiu_ftp.sidearmsports.com/custompages/football/2012/EIUFBStats2012.pdf
They ran the ball 457 times and passed it 554 times. (45.2%-54.8%). Jake Walker, 5-11, 194, carried the ball 232 times. Taylor Duncan, 6-3 224, carried 117 times. The QB, Jimmy Garoppolo, ran the ball 54 times for 223 yards and was sacked 29 times for the same amount so he had zero yards rushing. Eric Lora, 5-11 190, was easily the leading receiver with 136 catches at 12.2 yards per catch. But the leader for average was Chris Wright, 6-1 177, who caught 53 balls for 16.8 yards per catch. Chavar Watkins, 6-2 201, caught 49 for 11.0. Sam Hendricks, a 6-4 208 tight end, caught 37 for 8.3. Nobody else had 20+ Garoppolo completed 61.3% of his passes for an average of 11.5 yards per catch. He had 31TD passes and 15 interceptions.
EIU season 2: https://eiu_ftp.sidearmsports.com/custompages/football/2013/2013_EIUFootball_Stats.pdf
They ran the ball 563 times and passed it 557 times. (50.3%-49.7%). Shepard Little, 5-10, 197, carried the ball 217 times, as did Taylor Duncan. Both gained over 1,000 yards. Garoppolo, ran the ball 53 times for 209 yards and was sacked 17 times. Eric Lora was again the leading receiver with 123 catches at 12.6 yards per catch. The leader for average was Keiondre Gober, 6-3 200, who caught 48 balls for 18.6 yards per catch. Adam Drake, 6-2 195, caught 85 for 15.4. Jeff LePak, 6-6 222, (but listed as a wide receiver), caught 51 for 14.2 Duncan caught 31 and Little 21. Nobody else had 20+. Garoppolo completed 66.0% of his passes for an average of 13.5 yards per catch. He had 53TD passes and 9 interceptions.
Comment: At peak efficiency, this is a 50-50 offense as far as running vs. passing. There was a #1 receiving option both years but he seems to have been closer to a “possession” receiver. They used more receivers in the second year and tended to throw deeper. Yet Jimmy completed a higher percentage of his passes. The running game was an even split between two different size runners. Little averaged 7.1 and scored 15 times, Duncan 4.6 with 10 scores. I like to think they played in tandem, a Little/Csonka combination in my beloved two running back formation. But this being modern football, they probably alternated and got such big numbers because the team accumulated 367 first downs so they could run so many plays and because the passing game opened things up for them.
BGU season 1: Bowling Green - Cumulative Season Statistics
They ran the ball 556 times and passed it 547 times. (50.4%-49.6%). Travis Greene, 5-11, 189, carried the ball 180 times. Fred Coppet, 5-9 213, carried 141 times and Andre Givens, 5-9 185, carried 101 times. The QB, Matt Johnson was injured early in the season and replaced by James Knapke. Together, they ran the ball 44 times, (and were sacked 28 times). The receiving was more balanced than at EIU: Roger Lewis (6-2 199), had 73 catches for an average of 15.0. Ryan Burbrink (5-8 173) had 64 for 11.8., Ronnie Moore, (5-9 170), had 56 for 12.3. Gehrig Dieter (6-3 207) had 35 for 13.1. Heath Jackson (6-0 185) had 34 for 7.9. Greene had 27 catches. Nobody else had 20+. Johnson and Knapke completed 58.8% of their passes for an average of 11.4 yards per catch. They had 16TD passes and 12 interceptions.
BGU season 2: Bowling Green - Cumulative Season Statistics
They ran the ball 542 times and passed it 594 times. (47.7%-52.3%). Greene carried the ball 223 times and Coppet 145 times. They gained over 2,000 yards between them. The QB, Matt Johnson was healthy and now backed up by Knapke. Together, they ran the ball 79 times, (and were sacked 36 times). Dieter had 94 catches for 11.0 yards. Lewis had 85 for 18.2. Moore had 72 for 13.2. Burbink had 56 for 11.2. Greene again had 27 catches. Johnson and Knapke completed 67.4% of their passes for an average of 12.9 yards per catch. They had 47TD passes and 8 interceptions.
Comment: With a healthy Johnson, the balance tipped slightly in favor of passing but Greene actually gained more yards rushing (949 vs. 1298), but they did play two more games). I’d prefer to see the balance we see in the BG stats over having the lead guy gettig 100+ catches. The passing attack should make the other team cover all the receivers and the whole field. In the first two years at SU, two guys have carried the load and we’ve mostly thrown to the sidelines. There’s little evidence of using a tight end here: maybe they didn’t have a Ravian Pierce. For the most part the size of the wideouts were above average so those guys could make the sort of catches you expect from a tight end.
Let’s compare this to Dino’s first two years at SU.
SU season 1: Syracuse University
We ran the ball 449 times and passed it 522 times. (46.2%-53.8%). Donte Strickland carried the ball 162 times and Moe Neal 68 times. They gained 923 yards between them. The QBs, Eric Dungey and Zach Mahoney ran the ball 131 times, (and were sacked 38 times). Amba Etta-Tawo had 94 catches for an average of 15.8 yards per catch. Erv Phillips had 90 for 9.1. Steve Ismael and Brisley Estime both had 48 catches. Steve averaged 11.6 and Brisley 10.8.Strickland had 21 catches. Dungey and Mahoney completed 66.7% of their passes for an average of 11.6 yards per catch. They had 23TD passes and 11 interceptions.
SU season 2: Syracuse University
We ran the ball 479 times and passed it 548 times. (46.6%-53.4%). Donte Strickland carried the ball 128 times and Moe Neal 92 times. They gained 970 yards between them. The QBs, Eric Dungey, Zach Mahoney and Rex Culpepper ran the ball 147 times, (and were sacked 32 times). Ismael had 105 catches for an average of 12.8 yards per catch. Erv Phillips had 89 for 10.2. Devin Butler had 33 for 9.9. Ravien Pierce had 29 for 9.1. Nobody else had 20+. Dungey, Culpepper and Mahoney completed 58.3% of their passes for an average of 11.6 yards per catch. They had 19TD passes and 16 interceptions.
Comment: The biggest difference is that we are having to run the QB’s so much more than Dino did at EIU and BG. Part of that is Dungey’s skill set and preference. Part of it is the inadequacy of the output from the running backs. That also tips the scales more toward passing. But our passing game is nowhere near as productive as a RIU or BG. There’s been a similar number of passing attempts but the completion percentage actually went down last year. The TD/INT ratio is mediocre where it was good to very good and then unbelievable in the two years at the other stops. We’ve had guys like Phillips and Estime that seemed dangerous but had a hard time breaking big plays and Ismael, while a prolific pass catcher was not the talent that Etta Tawo was. As a result we just haven’t put up the numbers on the scoreboard you’d expect from a prolific passing team.
Scott Shafer’s last team scored 27.25 points per game and went 4-8. He was a relatively conservative “meathead” coach. We wanted a modern coach devoted to a wide-open passing game to take advantage of the dry, fast environment of the Carrier Dome. So we fired Shafer and hired Dino Babers, whose four teams at Eastern Illinois and Bowling Green had averaged 36.5 (and gone 7-5), 48.2 (12-2), 30.0 (8-6) and 42.2 (10-4). But his first two Syracuse teams have scored 25.6 (4-8) and 27.4 (4-8), no better than Shafer.
Last year we had a stretch where we scored 26 and lost to LSU by 9, 25 and lost to NC State by 8, beat Pittsburgh 27-24 and Clemson by the same score. Then we scored 19 on Miami and lost by 8 and 24 on Florida State and lost by 3. Earlier we’d lost to Middle Tennessee State 23-30. If we’d scored 39 more well-placed points, we’d have finished 9-3, except that would not have been the finish because we would have been in a very good bowl game. But in those 12 regular season games, we would have averaged 30.7 points per game. There were 129 teams in FBS last season. That means that the 65th team is the “median” – the one in the middle with an equal number of teams above it and below it. That would be Houston, who averaged 28.3ppg. You’ve got to score 29 points to beat an average team in an average game in modern college football. But we are not scoring 30.7 points per game and we’re not scoring 29 points per game, either.
In Shafer’s last year we averaged 157 yards passing a game, 116th in the country. Overall we gained 320 yards per game, 119th. Our 27.4 scoring was 77th. In 2016 we improved to 321 passing yards, (11th) and 441 total yards per game (42nd) but only scored 25.7 (90th). In 2017 we passed for 295 yards per game (18th) and gained 456 yards, (23rd) but only scored 27.4 (75th). How can you gain so many more yards and not score any more points?
Well, points don’t just come from the offensive unit. They can also come from the defense and the kicking game. In 2015 we scored 34 offensive touchdowns, returned 2 interceptions, 2 fumbles and 2 punt returns for scores. We kicked 16 of 22 field goals and 37 of 37 extra points. That’s 238 offensive points, (I’ll assume 34 extra points) and 87 points by other means. In 2016 we had 39 offensive touchdowns. The only ‘return’ TD we had was on a punt return. We scored one safety. Our place kickers made only 10 of 18 field goals and 36 of 39 extra points. That’s 270 offensive points, (adding the 36 pats to offensive scores) and 38 points by other means. If we’d gotten 87 points by other means, that would have been 357 points or 29.75 per game, an 8.5% improvement off of a 37.4% increase in yardage. In 2017 we scored 36 offensive TDs. We again had a single, (punt), return score. We also returned a blocked PAT for 2 points. Our kickers had a much better year, hitting 22 of 30 field goals and 35 of 36 extra points. That’s 251 offensive points, (adding the 35 PATs to offensive scores) and 74 points by other means, very similar to 2015.
It would be nice to kick the ball consistently, break some more returns and block a few kicks and maybe some things could be done to effectuate that. But the real key to revving up the offense is to get a productive running game so we can get first downs to sustain drives and score touchdowns rather than settling for field goals, (like the four we kicked in the Miami game that we lost by 8). It would also be nice to have 4 receivers the other team has to worry about rather than two and to make them cover the whole field and not just the sideline. Then the third year of the Babers Era at Syracuse might begin to look more like the years he had at Eastern Illinois and Bowling Green.
Maybe the real template is Art Briles at Baylor, where Babers learned this offense, (obviously I’m talking about on the field, not off it).
Art Briles - Wikipedia
I like the looks of that. Note the scoring pattern: 28.0ppg his first year, 20.1 his second year, 31.2 his third year and 45.3 his fourth year:
Baylor Historical Scores
That’s what I’m hoping for.
Athlon asked opposing coaches what they thought of Syracuse. The quotes they came up with are encouraging: “Dino has made it fun to play there. He has given that program a little edge. I can’t think of a person in our league who wasn’t happy when they beat Clemson, other than Clemson. It’s the reward, the end result, we all crave. When you get that and see that and feel that, it’s hard to describe the emotions….This is the perfect example of what the right system with the right players can do. They play fast, they spread you out and they’re aggressive on offense. If you can do it, if it’s taught correctly, you can change everything. You can go from a stale program with no juice to a program that young kids see as hip or an up and comer. Believe it or not, a lot of young people would rather blaze their own trail….I don’t think Eric Dungey is the same quarterback if he’s not in this offense. The system is a perfect fit for him. Get the ball, get it out quickly and make good decisions. Dino is from that Baylor coaching tree, and we’ve all seen what those quarterbacks do in that system. Dungey is a senior now and he has seen just about everything. He’s going to have a special season.”
Mission: Possible
Good morning, Coach, Babers. Your mission, should you decide to accept it, (and you already have), is to get Syracuse University’s football team to a bowl game this year. You must do this while playing in the Atlantic Division of the ACC, which may be the most difficult division in college football. You are unanimously projected to finish last in that division, as you did last year, when you were the only team in the division that didn’t have a winning record.
You must open your season on the road playing Western Michigan, a school that went 13-1 two years ago and is coached by Tim Lester, your predecessors’ offensive coordinator. One of his defensive backs will be Juwan Dowells, who played at Syracuse last year, (he’s a grad transfer) and thus knows our defense- and our offense, having practiced against it. The defensive coordinator, Tim Daoust, also used to coach here and knows our most experienced personnel. The memory of last year’s Dome loss to Middle Tennessee State, whose defensive coordinator was you predecessor Scott Shafer, is still fresh in people’s minds, as is the memory of Shafer lighting up a victory cigar after the game. Historically, we don’t do well in games like this, (Paul Pasqualoni beat us the first time he coached Connecticut).
In your third game, you will play Florida State, a perennial national power who had a down season last year, in part because they lost their talented young quarterback, Deondre Francois, early in the year. We still couldn’t beat them and Francois is back. We’ve beaten the Seminoles exactly once in our history Floyd Little had one of his biggest days. It was 1966, 52 years ago.
In game five, you will travel to Clemson, another perennial power who beat you don there two years ago 0-54. You had the greatest victory of your career so far against them in the Dome last season, 27-24. They are expected to contend for the national championship again this year and your team will be right in their cross hairs.
Then you will travel to Pittsburgh, where we last won in 2001. We end with games against NC State, Wake Forest, Louisville, Notre Dame and Boston College. Four of those teams beat us last year and the other is Notre Dame. You team has been 1-15 in November the last four year and you didn’t get the ‘1’ – Shafer did.
You will have to beat these teams with a quarterback who has yet to finish a season due to injuries, a receiving corps that has been deprived of two receivers who caught 194 balls between them and your entire linebacking corps and your place-kicker gone.
Should your mission fail, the secretary will not disavow any knowledge of your actions but it will become harder to recruit because nobody will view Syracuse as a coming program anymore and rumors of you being on the hot seat will increase. If you can’t recruit, you can’t get better and your eventual self-destruction will be made more likely. And, if that happens, we won’t know where to go next and our reputation as a bottom-feeder will be cemented.
Good luck, Dino!
We now see Babers in his office, looking over his assets: a versatile three year starter at quarterback backed up not by a junior college walk-on but by a guy who figures to be our next star quarterback, perhaps even better, and another recruited QB who was also thought to be a potential successor. A young offensive line that improved during the season last year, will get back a starter from the previous year and a grad transfer who started for Texas A&M. A defensive line with an Outland-quality tackle and some talented edge rushers and depth it hasn’t had for years. A defensive backfield with a good mix of experienced players and highly-regarded recruits. A third year of recruiting his type of players and a roster of veterans who have had 2-3 years in his offensive and defensive systems, as well as his conditioning program. There’s also the potential shown and optimism created by high profile upsets over Virginia Tech and Clemson the last two years and several competitive games against ranked teams last year.
The First Third Year
Dino talks about this being his “first third year”. He moved on from Eastern Illinois and then Bowling Green after two years. SU fans were wondering how long he might be here but last year’s 0-5 finish ended that speculation. The bigger the ship, the harder it is to turn around, especially in the deep end of the pool. (How do you like that for juggling metaphors?). This team is becoming more and more a Dino Babers team as he depends less and less on inherited players. I think we’ll get to see more of what a Dino Babers team looks like.
Let’s look at his Eastern Illinois and Bowling Green teams to get a glimpse of what Babers ideally wants to be able to do. This was against much lesser completion so I don’t think we are likely to see numbers as prolific as this, (especially EIU season 2), playing in the ACC Atlantic. But the distribution of carries and catches, passes and runs, etc. is interesting. (Defensive numbers are a reflection of what the other team’s offense is trying to do, so I’ll skip them.)
EIU season 1: https://eiu_ftp.sidearmsports.com/custompages/football/2012/EIUFBStats2012.pdf
They ran the ball 457 times and passed it 554 times. (45.2%-54.8%). Jake Walker, 5-11, 194, carried the ball 232 times. Taylor Duncan, 6-3 224, carried 117 times. The QB, Jimmy Garoppolo, ran the ball 54 times for 223 yards and was sacked 29 times for the same amount so he had zero yards rushing. Eric Lora, 5-11 190, was easily the leading receiver with 136 catches at 12.2 yards per catch. But the leader for average was Chris Wright, 6-1 177, who caught 53 balls for 16.8 yards per catch. Chavar Watkins, 6-2 201, caught 49 for 11.0. Sam Hendricks, a 6-4 208 tight end, caught 37 for 8.3. Nobody else had 20+ Garoppolo completed 61.3% of his passes for an average of 11.5 yards per catch. He had 31TD passes and 15 interceptions.
EIU season 2: https://eiu_ftp.sidearmsports.com/custompages/football/2013/2013_EIUFootball_Stats.pdf
They ran the ball 563 times and passed it 557 times. (50.3%-49.7%). Shepard Little, 5-10, 197, carried the ball 217 times, as did Taylor Duncan. Both gained over 1,000 yards. Garoppolo, ran the ball 53 times for 209 yards and was sacked 17 times. Eric Lora was again the leading receiver with 123 catches at 12.6 yards per catch. The leader for average was Keiondre Gober, 6-3 200, who caught 48 balls for 18.6 yards per catch. Adam Drake, 6-2 195, caught 85 for 15.4. Jeff LePak, 6-6 222, (but listed as a wide receiver), caught 51 for 14.2 Duncan caught 31 and Little 21. Nobody else had 20+. Garoppolo completed 66.0% of his passes for an average of 13.5 yards per catch. He had 53TD passes and 9 interceptions.
Comment: At peak efficiency, this is a 50-50 offense as far as running vs. passing. There was a #1 receiving option both years but he seems to have been closer to a “possession” receiver. They used more receivers in the second year and tended to throw deeper. Yet Jimmy completed a higher percentage of his passes. The running game was an even split between two different size runners. Little averaged 7.1 and scored 15 times, Duncan 4.6 with 10 scores. I like to think they played in tandem, a Little/Csonka combination in my beloved two running back formation. But this being modern football, they probably alternated and got such big numbers because the team accumulated 367 first downs so they could run so many plays and because the passing game opened things up for them.
BGU season 1: Bowling Green - Cumulative Season Statistics
They ran the ball 556 times and passed it 547 times. (50.4%-49.6%). Travis Greene, 5-11, 189, carried the ball 180 times. Fred Coppet, 5-9 213, carried 141 times and Andre Givens, 5-9 185, carried 101 times. The QB, Matt Johnson was injured early in the season and replaced by James Knapke. Together, they ran the ball 44 times, (and were sacked 28 times). The receiving was more balanced than at EIU: Roger Lewis (6-2 199), had 73 catches for an average of 15.0. Ryan Burbrink (5-8 173) had 64 for 11.8., Ronnie Moore, (5-9 170), had 56 for 12.3. Gehrig Dieter (6-3 207) had 35 for 13.1. Heath Jackson (6-0 185) had 34 for 7.9. Greene had 27 catches. Nobody else had 20+. Johnson and Knapke completed 58.8% of their passes for an average of 11.4 yards per catch. They had 16TD passes and 12 interceptions.
BGU season 2: Bowling Green - Cumulative Season Statistics
They ran the ball 542 times and passed it 594 times. (47.7%-52.3%). Greene carried the ball 223 times and Coppet 145 times. They gained over 2,000 yards between them. The QB, Matt Johnson was healthy and now backed up by Knapke. Together, they ran the ball 79 times, (and were sacked 36 times). Dieter had 94 catches for 11.0 yards. Lewis had 85 for 18.2. Moore had 72 for 13.2. Burbink had 56 for 11.2. Greene again had 27 catches. Johnson and Knapke completed 67.4% of their passes for an average of 12.9 yards per catch. They had 47TD passes and 8 interceptions.
Comment: With a healthy Johnson, the balance tipped slightly in favor of passing but Greene actually gained more yards rushing (949 vs. 1298), but they did play two more games). I’d prefer to see the balance we see in the BG stats over having the lead guy gettig 100+ catches. The passing attack should make the other team cover all the receivers and the whole field. In the first two years at SU, two guys have carried the load and we’ve mostly thrown to the sidelines. There’s little evidence of using a tight end here: maybe they didn’t have a Ravian Pierce. For the most part the size of the wideouts were above average so those guys could make the sort of catches you expect from a tight end.
Let’s compare this to Dino’s first two years at SU.
SU season 1: Syracuse University
We ran the ball 449 times and passed it 522 times. (46.2%-53.8%). Donte Strickland carried the ball 162 times and Moe Neal 68 times. They gained 923 yards between them. The QBs, Eric Dungey and Zach Mahoney ran the ball 131 times, (and were sacked 38 times). Amba Etta-Tawo had 94 catches for an average of 15.8 yards per catch. Erv Phillips had 90 for 9.1. Steve Ismael and Brisley Estime both had 48 catches. Steve averaged 11.6 and Brisley 10.8.Strickland had 21 catches. Dungey and Mahoney completed 66.7% of their passes for an average of 11.6 yards per catch. They had 23TD passes and 11 interceptions.
SU season 2: Syracuse University
We ran the ball 479 times and passed it 548 times. (46.6%-53.4%). Donte Strickland carried the ball 128 times and Moe Neal 92 times. They gained 970 yards between them. The QBs, Eric Dungey, Zach Mahoney and Rex Culpepper ran the ball 147 times, (and were sacked 32 times). Ismael had 105 catches for an average of 12.8 yards per catch. Erv Phillips had 89 for 10.2. Devin Butler had 33 for 9.9. Ravien Pierce had 29 for 9.1. Nobody else had 20+. Dungey, Culpepper and Mahoney completed 58.3% of their passes for an average of 11.6 yards per catch. They had 19TD passes and 16 interceptions.
Comment: The biggest difference is that we are having to run the QB’s so much more than Dino did at EIU and BG. Part of that is Dungey’s skill set and preference. Part of it is the inadequacy of the output from the running backs. That also tips the scales more toward passing. But our passing game is nowhere near as productive as a RIU or BG. There’s been a similar number of passing attempts but the completion percentage actually went down last year. The TD/INT ratio is mediocre where it was good to very good and then unbelievable in the two years at the other stops. We’ve had guys like Phillips and Estime that seemed dangerous but had a hard time breaking big plays and Ismael, while a prolific pass catcher was not the talent that Etta Tawo was. As a result we just haven’t put up the numbers on the scoreboard you’d expect from a prolific passing team.
Scott Shafer’s last team scored 27.25 points per game and went 4-8. He was a relatively conservative “meathead” coach. We wanted a modern coach devoted to a wide-open passing game to take advantage of the dry, fast environment of the Carrier Dome. So we fired Shafer and hired Dino Babers, whose four teams at Eastern Illinois and Bowling Green had averaged 36.5 (and gone 7-5), 48.2 (12-2), 30.0 (8-6) and 42.2 (10-4). But his first two Syracuse teams have scored 25.6 (4-8) and 27.4 (4-8), no better than Shafer.
Last year we had a stretch where we scored 26 and lost to LSU by 9, 25 and lost to NC State by 8, beat Pittsburgh 27-24 and Clemson by the same score. Then we scored 19 on Miami and lost by 8 and 24 on Florida State and lost by 3. Earlier we’d lost to Middle Tennessee State 23-30. If we’d scored 39 more well-placed points, we’d have finished 9-3, except that would not have been the finish because we would have been in a very good bowl game. But in those 12 regular season games, we would have averaged 30.7 points per game. There were 129 teams in FBS last season. That means that the 65th team is the “median” – the one in the middle with an equal number of teams above it and below it. That would be Houston, who averaged 28.3ppg. You’ve got to score 29 points to beat an average team in an average game in modern college football. But we are not scoring 30.7 points per game and we’re not scoring 29 points per game, either.
In Shafer’s last year we averaged 157 yards passing a game, 116th in the country. Overall we gained 320 yards per game, 119th. Our 27.4 scoring was 77th. In 2016 we improved to 321 passing yards, (11th) and 441 total yards per game (42nd) but only scored 25.7 (90th). In 2017 we passed for 295 yards per game (18th) and gained 456 yards, (23rd) but only scored 27.4 (75th). How can you gain so many more yards and not score any more points?
Well, points don’t just come from the offensive unit. They can also come from the defense and the kicking game. In 2015 we scored 34 offensive touchdowns, returned 2 interceptions, 2 fumbles and 2 punt returns for scores. We kicked 16 of 22 field goals and 37 of 37 extra points. That’s 238 offensive points, (I’ll assume 34 extra points) and 87 points by other means. In 2016 we had 39 offensive touchdowns. The only ‘return’ TD we had was on a punt return. We scored one safety. Our place kickers made only 10 of 18 field goals and 36 of 39 extra points. That’s 270 offensive points, (adding the 36 pats to offensive scores) and 38 points by other means. If we’d gotten 87 points by other means, that would have been 357 points or 29.75 per game, an 8.5% improvement off of a 37.4% increase in yardage. In 2017 we scored 36 offensive TDs. We again had a single, (punt), return score. We also returned a blocked PAT for 2 points. Our kickers had a much better year, hitting 22 of 30 field goals and 35 of 36 extra points. That’s 251 offensive points, (adding the 35 PATs to offensive scores) and 74 points by other means, very similar to 2015.
It would be nice to kick the ball consistently, break some more returns and block a few kicks and maybe some things could be done to effectuate that. But the real key to revving up the offense is to get a productive running game so we can get first downs to sustain drives and score touchdowns rather than settling for field goals, (like the four we kicked in the Miami game that we lost by 8). It would also be nice to have 4 receivers the other team has to worry about rather than two and to make them cover the whole field and not just the sideline. Then the third year of the Babers Era at Syracuse might begin to look more like the years he had at Eastern Illinois and Bowling Green.
Maybe the real template is Art Briles at Baylor, where Babers learned this offense, (obviously I’m talking about on the field, not off it).
Art Briles - Wikipedia
I like the looks of that. Note the scoring pattern: 28.0ppg his first year, 20.1 his second year, 31.2 his third year and 45.3 his fourth year:
Baylor Historical Scores
That’s what I’m hoping for.
Athlon asked opposing coaches what they thought of Syracuse. The quotes they came up with are encouraging: “Dino has made it fun to play there. He has given that program a little edge. I can’t think of a person in our league who wasn’t happy when they beat Clemson, other than Clemson. It’s the reward, the end result, we all crave. When you get that and see that and feel that, it’s hard to describe the emotions….This is the perfect example of what the right system with the right players can do. They play fast, they spread you out and they’re aggressive on offense. If you can do it, if it’s taught correctly, you can change everything. You can go from a stale program with no juice to a program that young kids see as hip or an up and comer. Believe it or not, a lot of young people would rather blaze their own trail….I don’t think Eric Dungey is the same quarterback if he’s not in this offense. The system is a perfect fit for him. Get the ball, get it out quickly and make good decisions. Dino is from that Baylor coaching tree, and we’ve all seen what those quarterbacks do in that system. Dungey is a senior now and he has seen just about everything. He’s going to have a special season.”
