My 2019 SU Basketball Preview - Part 1: The Situation | Syracusefan.com

My 2019 SU Basketball Preview - Part 1: The Situation

SWC75

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(Note that I’m using the second year of a season to designate the season: this is previewing the 2018-19 season, which I will call the 2019 season.)

The Situation

From 2010-2014, we had three teams that achieved a number 1 ranking and a fourth that made the Final Four. Our overall record for those five seasons was 149-32 (.823). We were ranked for 175 of those 181 games. On selection Sunday we had records of 28-4, 26-7, 31-2, 26-9 and 27-5 and when the NCAA selection show began, we were not nervous, thinking we wouldn’t be selected. We were curious, wondering who we would play, where and when.

From 2015-18, we’ve played 13 games as a ranked team, never higher than 14th. We’ve had a combined record of 83-56 (.597). On selection Sunday, we’ve been 18-13, 19-13, 18-14 and 20-13. We were nervous except for the first year, when we’d already taken ourselves out of the NCAA tournament in hopes of lightening NCAA penalties. In the other three years we were left to the NIT once and controversially selected to the NCAA tournament twice. We had two amazing NCAA runs in those years, going a combined 7-2 and making it to another Final Four. But these years have been more frustrating than joyful. All those teams had serious limitations and we were playing in a very unforgiving conference where you need to be good and playing well to win games. Syracuse fans have pinned for the days when we had ‘loaded’ teams that could compete with anybody and carried serious ambitions, not just dreams of winning another national title: Would we ever return to that level?

It might be this year. We were in despair when the gem of our recruiting class, forward Darius Bazley decided to skip college and go directly to the pros, even if it mean playing in something called the G League. He was at the time ranked the #9 recruit in the country. Duke had already recruited the top three players in the country. The best we had was #9 and he wasn’t even coming! But our hope rose substantially when our proven star, Tyus Battle, who averaged 19.2 points per game, the highest by an SU player in 14 years, after testing the waters of the NBA, decided to return to school for his junior year. That meant that our entire starting line-up from a Sweet 16 team that came very close to making the Elite 8 would be returning. The last time every starter returned for Syracuse was for the 2000 season. the same group that had limped their way to a 21-12 record and a first round loss in an 8-9 game in 1999 won their first 19 games and made it to a #4 national ranking in 2000. They end their season losing to eventual national champion Michigan State in their own backyard, (Auburn Hills, Michigan) in the Sweet 16, in a game where we had a 14 point lead in the second half. Our final record that year was 26-6, a 5 ½ game improvement. If we improve by 5 1/2 games over our 23-14 record of last year and advance two further games in the NCAA tournament, as we did back then, we’d be something like 28-8 and have been curious, rather than nervous, on selection Sunday.

That’s the nice thing about college sports. In the pros the players are 90-100% of what they could be and can be moved around like chess pieces. But they don’t show quantum improvements as they can when still developing in college. Getting your entire starting line back doesn’t prevent you from getting better because you can’t change anything. You will almost certainly get better because at least some of those players will show substantial improvement from one year to the next. Last year we started two freshmen and two other players who had never started before. Our star had not been the star player before. Yet we played competitive ball and had the good post season run to get us to that 23-14 record. Sometimes players tread water or even decline but if you have 5 starters back, a net improvement is almost inevitable.

And if you add some interesting recruits, improvement is almost guaranteed. We lacked depth and firepower last year and the newcomers should provide both. Jim Boeheim’s biggest problem won’t be to find players who can do the things needed to win games. It will be to find ways to allow all his players to contribute to the team and not hurt their chemistry. But even that could result in team improvement. Last year our depth problem was so bad that our “Big Three” players, Tyus Battle, Frank Howard and Oshae Brissett typically played entire games against any significant opponents. These guys played the entirety of 65 games between them, including an overtime (Battle and Brissett) and a double overtime game, (Battle). Battle averaged 39.0 minutes per game, Howard 38.4 and Brissett 38.1. Those are the three top minutes per game averages in Syracuse history, (at least back to 1980, which is as far as the stats go).

Boeheim has already insisted that with all the media time outs in the modern game, the kids can handle the playing time of the college game, (in the pros, between exhibitions and playoff games, they might have to play 100 games). But even he had to admit that that was too much to ask of the three players without it impacting the quality of their performance, although it’s interesting that the team played its best ball at the end of the 37 game season. But if Battle, Howard and Brissett could play 35 or maybe even 32 minutes a game, they’d play with greater efficiency and that could improve the quality of the team. The new players and the depth they can provide could allow that.

The thing is, we should have had plenty of depth last year. But one guy, (Taurean Thompson), never showed up. Another guy, Geno Thorpe, left after 6 games. Another, (Howard Washington), tore up his knee in practice after 18 games. Another, (Bourama Sidibie), struggled with tendonitis all year and missed 7 games, playing limited minutes in many others. Matthew Moyer’s father announced he would not be available for another game. The rest of the players all played hurt at various times. Things happen. And things have already happened to this team. We played our exhibition games with no point guard because Howard and Jaylen Carey are both hurt and Washington wasn’t ready yet after his knee surgery. Nobody’s quite sure when their problems will be resolved. Nobody’s sure if an operation Sidibie had solved his problems. Moyer left school. At this point last year Thorpe’s defection and Washington’s injury hadn’t happened yet. We don’t know if this team will actually have more depth than last year’s team. Que Sera Sera.
 

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