My 2020 SU Football preview Pt. 10: The September Schedule | Syracusefan.com

My 2020 SU Football preview Pt. 10: The September Schedule

SWC75

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THE SCHEDULE

(There will be no fans at the games unless there is a policy change regarding the pandemic and TV/radio broadcasts are all ‘TBA’ at this time. Even the actual playing of the games is up in the air as the Big 10 and Pac 12 have canceled their games and SU or the opponent may be having problems with CoVid 19 at the time of the games.)

For comparison, here are SU’s most important team stats and rankings from last year:
Scoring Offense: 28.3 (8th in the ACC 69th nationally) Defense: 30.7, (11, 88)
Rushing Offense: 154.0 (7, 71) Defense: 201.6 (12, 109)
Passing Offense: 240.0 (8, 60) Defense: 262.5 (12, 110)
Total Offense: 394.6 (7, 71) Defense: 464.1 (13, 115)
TO Margin +9 (2 13) Average Field Position: 32.3 – 27.3 = 5.0 (3, 15)

There were 130 FBS teams. Here is the ranking of the 65th best, (or worst) team in each of these categories:

Scoring Offense: 29.2 Defense: 27.5
Rushing Offense: 161.8 Defense: 157.8
Passing Offense: 234.5 Defense: 226.0
Total Offense: 405.7 Defense: 390.5
TO Margin Even Average Field Position: unknown


Saturday September 12 at NORTH CAROLINA (Kenan Stadium)

UNC is one of those schools with a CoVid problem: students who were on campus were having so many unprotected parties the University announced there would be no in person classes- everything will be done via the internet. If they have a big outbreak, it could affect the football team.

If the game does come off, it’s Syracuse that might have the problem. Prior to last year, they seemed to be an object lesson for SU. In 2015 they had had a season similar to SU’s in 2018: they went 11-3, winning the Coastal Division and giving Clemson all they could handle in the ACC title game. I expected that they were in for a good run led by their ‘hot’ coach Larry Fedora. They followed that up with a respectable 8-5 season followed by 3-9 and 2-9 disasters which resulted in Fedora being on the ‘hot seat’ instead of the hot list and losing his job. Like Dino Babers, he had his roots in the Baylor program and UNC had hoped he would make the Heels into “Baylor East”.

It was the UNC game in the Dome that Tommy DeVito had to come in and rescue our team- and our season) with 3TDs and an overtime win. It didn’t save their season to almost beat us. The Heels decided to do something that hardly ever works in college football – bringing back a former coaching legend to turn the program around again. The things that were done to make him successful the first time likely stopped being done which is why the program declined. The legendary coach isn’t going to be able to turn it around again without the kind of support he got the first time. But in this case, those things seem to be happening because Mack Brown, the long-time Texas coach who went there from Chapel Hill in 1998 had quite a season his first year back. Brown, in his first tenure here, started 2-20 his first two years and finished 20-3 in his last two years. Last year the Heels went 7-5. But their losses were by 6 at Wake Forest, by 3 to Appalachian State, (one of the strongest mid-majors), by 1 to Clemson, by 2 in 6 overtimes at Virginia Tech, by 7 to Coastal champ Virginia and by 7 in one OT at Pittsburgh, (we know how that feels). In their other games they beat South Carolina by 3, U of Miami by 3, Georgia Tech by 16, Duke by 3 and, in their last three games Mercer 56-7, NC State 41-10 and, in a bowl game, Temple 55-13. Just as our offensive output increased from 24ppg to 41 in out last three games, theirs increased from 28ppg to 51. Street and Smiths has them favored to win the Coastal Division.

They return 10 offensive starters. Their QB, Sam Howell, had the sort of numbers I’d like to see Tommy DeVito have someday: 259/422 (61.4%) for 3,641 yards for 38 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. The thing is, he did that as a freshman. DeVito is a junior and hasn’t done that yet. He has two 1,000 receivers back and close to two 1,000 yard rushers. Dyami Brown caught 51 balls for 1,034 yards (20.3) and 12TDs. Dazz Newsome caught 72 for 1,018 years and 10 TDs and Beau Corrales, (Athlon: “A big, physical target), caught 40 for 575 (14.4) and 6 scores. Michael Carter carried the ball 172 times for 1,055 yards (5.6) and 3 scores while Javonte Williams had 146/972 (5.6) and 5TDs. Athlon: “Carter, (5-10 200), is shifty…while Williams, (5-10 215), is a punishing runner who is rarely tackled by the first defender.” They would be a handful for anybody but with a new defensive scheme, limited time to install it, lack of line depth and a new set of linebackers, it’s going to be very hard for the Orange to stop these guys. I think we have guys who could match those numbers with better offensive line play but can they all do it at once like the Heels are doing?

Defensively, they are rebuilding on the line but got a pleasant surprise when ex-quarterback Chazz Surratt decided it was more fun to hit than be hit and became an all-ACC linebacker “who wreaked havoc all over the field”, (Athlon). They had a lot of injuries in the secondary, which means they will be unusually deep in experienced players. Mack Brown: “it’s going to be really competitive back there”. They should have a strong kicking game. the brought in grad transfer Grayson Adams, who was an FCS All-American at Furman with 13/15 field goals and have “dangerous kick returners in Carter (kick-offs) and Newsome (punts)” (Athlon).

Update: the following UNC players have opted out for the season due to Covid19 concerns: D.J. Ford, Triston Miller, Javon Terry and Bryce Watts.

Scoring Offense: 33.1 (2, 30) Defense: 23.7 (4, 44)
Rushing Offense: 188.2 (4, 38) Defense: 143.5 (7, 51)
Passing Offense: 285.8 (3, 25) Defense: 229.6 (7, 71)
Total Offense: 474.0 (2, 12) Defense: 373.2 (6, 49)
TO Margin +8 (3, 19) Average field positon: 29.0-29.9 = +0.9 (8, 85)

Saturday September 19 at PITTSBURGH (Heinz Field)

The Panthers are one of several opponents who delight in pummeling us year after year. From last year’s preview:

“Syracuse and Pittsburgh are each other’s evil twins. They are never good at the same time. The yearly series, (now our longest) dates back to 1955. Pitt won the first two but SU won 11 of the next 16, many by big scores like 35-0, 28-9, 51-13, 33-7, 50-17 and 43-13. Then Johnny Majors took the Pitt job in 1973 and was given the money to hand out 76 scholarships in that one year, (this was before the NCAA put restrictions on scholarships – and was probably why). Four years later they won the national championship. It started an 11 year run of Pittsburgh victories. They beat us 0-38 in 1975 and 6-43 in 1980 but we usually gave them a good battle, constantly coming up short. Majors and then Jackie Sherrill left Pitt and Dick MacPherson came to Syracuse and the series turned around again. SU won 16 times in 18 years from 1984-2001. The best the Panthers could get was a one touchdown win in 1989 and a tie in 1990. Meanwhile, we hammered them 24-7, 41-10, 31-7, 42-10, 55-7, 45-28 and 42-10. But then the series turned back in Pitt’s direction and they have dominated since 2002, winning 14 of the last 17 games, including 24-48, 14-34, 10-37, 14-45, and 7-30, as well as a record setting 61-76 in 2016.”

Last year the Pitt game was one of a run of games in mid-season where we had a lousy first half, rallied but came up short, losing 20-27, (making it 15 Pitt wins in 18 years). Pitt was 8-5 last season, losing to Virginia in an opener that decided the division, Penn State, U of Miami, Va Tech and BC. They squeaked out a 34-30 bowl win over Eastern Michigan. They led the conference in rushing defense and were third in total defense. They had big problems on offense, being held under 20 points 6 times, including a 0-28 shut out by the Hokies. Traditionally a power running team, they were 12th in the conference, (and a dismal 119th in the nation) in that stat and last in scoring. It would have been a year to beat them and we didn’t do it because it was a year to beat us, too.

Their defense was 1st nationally in sacks, 93.9 per game) and 9th in TFL’s, (7.9) and might be even better, getting three starters back up front, including Jaylen Twyman, (12TFLs, including 10.5 sacks- the sort of numbers Robinson and Coleman had for us in 2018) and getting back two guys who had season-ending injuries early last year, end Rashad Weaver and tackle Keyshon Camp. Athlon says their synergy “could be seismic”. Their linebackers are inexperienced but Coach Pat Narduzzi said of Chase Pine that “if he plays consistent(ly), he can be a freaking big time NFL middle linebacker.” They have an “exceptional secondary led by junior safety Patrick Ford”. Narduzzi said that Ford and Damar Hamlin at safety “probably is the best tandem in the country right now. The man likes his defense.

They have a senior QB in Kenny Pickett: 289/469 (61.9%) 3,098yards but only 14TDs and 9 interceptions, probably due to the lack of a running threat to draw the defense in. They get back 5 starters on the line and that will certainly help. AJ Davis rushed for 530 yards but will be pushed by NY’s Player of the year, Israel Abanikanda. Senior Taysir Mack caught 63 balls for 736 yards (11.7). Lucas Krull, a 6-6 260 grad transfer from Florida, (he’s probably lined up next to Chris Bleich at times), will be the tight end. Alex Kressman has hurt us badly with his foot. He’s hit 46 of 67 field goals in his career, including from 54, 55 and 56 yards against us. Punter Kirk Christodoulou averaged 42.9.

Update: Jaylen Twyman has opted out for the season due to Covi19 concerns.

Scoring Offense: 21.2 (13, 114) Defense: 22.5 (3, 36)
Rushing Offense: 118.8 (13, 119) Defense: 108.5 ((1, 12)
Passing Offense: 261.7 (6, 39) Defense: 204.5 (4, 34)
Total Offense: 380.5 (10, 87) Defense: 312.9 (3, 15)
TO Margin -8 (12, 112) Average field position: 28.1-30.0 = -1.9 (10, 100)


Saturday September 26 in the Dome vs. GEORGIA TECH

The downside of this revised schedule, besides losing 3 relatively easier non-conference games is playing most of the toughest opponents on the road. The upside is that we have a stretch of 5 home games in 6, (over 7 weeks) in the middle of the season. The downside of that is that there will be no fans there, (unless the governor relents at some point). Of course that’s also an upside to the road games- no screaming crowds there, either.

The name ‘Georgia Tech’ strikes fear into the hearts of Syracuse fans. We’ve only played the Yellow Jackets three times in history and got stung each time. In 2001 we lost to them in Atlanta 7-13, the first of two dismal losses to open what turned out to be our last really good season of that era, (the other was a 9-33 mess at Tennessee). Then came the game that closed the coffin on the Paqualoni Era, a 14-51 rout in the 2004 Champs Sports Bowl in Orlando, (which was followed by the much worse G-Rob era). Then there was an even worse debacle back in Atlanta in Scott Shafer’s second year, an 0-56 drubbing. That made it three games in which we were out-scored 21-120.

Tech at that time was one of the last teams running the triple option offense, which is designed to stretch the defense along a horizontal line from sideline to sideline, covering three different running plays that can exploit any gaps that open up. It also sets the defense up for the occasional- very occasional long pass. Shafer, normally an excellent defensive coach, was totally thrown by this. Even though we had a starting linebacker out, he thought it would be prudent to switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense. The result was a disaster. Tech made steady gains with the running game and drive down the field to score with nearly each possession but also stepped back to throw deep a couple of times with great success. We just couldn’t stop them. The fact that we could do nothing with the ball ourselves sealed our fate. It was a battle of 7-6 teams where one 7-6 team scored 56 points and the other did not because we had no idea how to defense them and couldn’t move the ball, either. Syracuse fans were saying to themselves that it was a good thing they were in the other division and we wouldn’t be playing them for 8 years. Well, it’s 7 years later and they are coming to the Dome for the first time.

They will becoming without the man who coached that 2013 team, Paul Johnson and master of the triple option who had success with it at Navy and then Tech. Johnson retired after the 2018 season, to be replaced by Geoff Collins, who is “transitioning the Georgia Tech program out of the triple-option era”. The results the first season were poor: a 3-9 record and a last place offense, scoring only 14.7 points per game, #124 of 130 FBS teams in the country. They went 3 and out 40% of the time. Maybe they should try transitioning back? Athlon: “it was always understood that shifting to a different system would expose Georgia Tech’s roster as under-sized and lacking in ACC talent. Predictably, as Collins went about instituting a more modern philosophy the Yellow Jackets struggled badly at times”. S&S: “The Conventional wisdom was that Georgia Tech would struggle…the conventional wisdom was right.” SU fans hope they are still struggling this year. Zapping the Yellow Jackets would heal some long-standing wounds from their stinger.

Johnson liked quick linemen and left Collins with an offensive line only averaged 264 pounds per man. The quarterback, James Graham completed only 45.1% of his passes and only ran for 2.9 yards a carry. Athlon: “The former four star prospect…looks good throwing the ball down the field and with better protection and understanding of the offense, Graham will flourish.” If he doesn’t, Jeff Sims, “one of the best dual threat prospects in the country” will get a look. Collins has brought in a couple of big grad transfers for the line in 6-6 310 Ryan Johnson from Tennessee and 6-7 300 and Devin Cochran from Vanderbilt. Jordan Mason rushed for 899 yards (5.2) and scored 7 times. He “flashed yards-after-contract ability as a freshman”. (Athlon)

They use a 4-2-5 on defense and “nearly all of those players return” so Collins will have something to build on there. Linebacker David Curry had 97 tackles and “star safety Juanyeh Thomas “has shown a knack for making the electric play”. Nickel back Charlie Thomas had 9.5 TFLs. They are completely rebuilding their kicking unit.

Scoring Offense: 16.7 (14, 124) Defense: 32.4 (13, 104)
Rushing Offense: 152.4 (8, 72) Defense: 215.3 (14, 117)
Passing Offense: 133.9 (14, 124) Defense: 207.7 (5, 36)
Total Offense: 286.3 (14, 127) Defense: 422.9 (10, 89)
TO Margin -4 (11, 93) Average Field Position: 27.1-33.3 = -6.2 (14, 125)
 
Our defense has another shot to redefine themselves vs UNC.

We can either set the tone and play incredibly physical against their returning studs.

or

Maryland 2.0 except this UNC team is actually good and has a legendary coach.

Count me as worried.
 
Our defense has another shot to redefine themselves vs UNC.

We can either set the tone and play incredibly physical against their returning studs.

or

Maryland 2.0 except this UNC team is actually good and has a legendary coach.

Count me as worried.

There are 2 things in our favor re: UNC -

1 - the magical “they don’t have any film on us”, mostly on D with the huge scheme change, but even on O with a new OC who will surely throw his own wrinkles into what we normally try to do.
2 - UNC’s O-Line may be in worse shape than ours. Mack Brown recently quoted about how its hard to practice “with only 6 OL“ able to play currently.

Now, those might be guys in quarantine, or recovering from actually having Covid, to maybe minor dings - who knows?
But even if he gets most or all of them back, they will have missed valuable practice time, and clearly won’t be as cohesive as they otherwise might have been.

We know how badly having to shuffle the O-Line right before the season starts can screw the entire offense.
Let’s hope that, along with our new D, is enough to keep us competitive on that side of things.
 
Our defense has another shot to redefine themselves vs UNC.

We can either set the tone and play incredibly physical against their returning studs.

or

Maryland 2.0 except this UNC team is actually good and has a legendary coach.

Count me as worried.


Maybe Dino cane get some pointers from JB re: how to beat UNC.
 
There are 2 things in our favor re: UNC -

1 - the magical “they don’t have any film on us”, mostly on D with the huge scheme change, but even on O with a new OC who will surely throw his own wrinkles into what we normally try to do.
2 - UNC’s O-Line may be in worse shape than ours. Mack Brown recently quoted about how its hard to practice “with only 6 OL“ able to play currently.

Now, those might be guys in quarantine, or recovering from actually having Covid, to maybe minor dings - who knows?
But even if he gets most or all of them back, they will have missed valuable practice time, and clearly won’t be as cohesive as they otherwise might have been.

We know how badly having to shuffle the O-Line right before the season starts can screw the entire offense.
Let’s hope that, along with our new D, is enough to keep us competitive on that side of things.


Plus the most unpredictable, (and often misleading) game of the year is always the first one, if it's against a decent opponent.
 
There are 2 things in our favor re: UNC -

1 - the magical “they don’t have any film on us”, mostly on D with the huge scheme change, but even on O with a new OC who will surely throw his own wrinkles into what we normally try to do.
2 - UNC’s O-Line may be in worse shape than ours. Mack Brown recently quoted about how its hard to practice “with only 6 OL“ able to play currently.

Now, those might be guys in quarantine, or recovering from actually having Covid, to maybe minor dings - who knows?
But even if he gets most or all of them back, they will have missed valuable practice time, and clearly won’t be as cohesive as they otherwise might have been.

We know how badly having to shuffle the O-Line right before the season starts can screw the entire offense.
Let’s hope that, along with our new D, is enough to keep us competitive on that side of things.
imposing our will on the ground game will be huge. Our defense can keep it competitive but not with consistent barrages of three and outs by our O. We’ll need their stud linebackers worrying about our running backs rather than doubling up on Hackett and Nykheim
 

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