SWC75
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Saturday 10/2 TBA at FLORIDA STATE TV: TBA
When will Florida State become FLORIDA STATE again? When we entered this conference, they were the dominant team, beating Clemson 51-14 and running a 14-game table to the national championship. The next year they ran their winning streak to 29 games before losing to Oregon in the first playoff. After that it was 10-3, 10-3, 7-6, 5-7, 6-7 and 3-6 last year. Their scores against Clemson after 51-14 were 23-17, 13-23, 34-37, 14-31, 10-59 and 14-45, (they didn’t play last year). This is a program that set a record by being ranked in the top 4 teams in the final polls every year from 1987-2000. They declined form that level late in the Bowden era, finishing ranked from 10th to 23rd, (but still ranked) from 2001-2011. Then Jimbo Fisher brought them back to #8 in 2012 and that 14-0 championship season of 2013, their third national championship. The decline had begun under Fisher, who left after the 5-7 year in 2017. Willie Taggert wasn’t able to turn it around in two years, (and the Noles weren’t as patient as South Florida, where Taggart did get it turned around in his 3rd season). They then hired Mike Norvell, who went 38-15 at Memphis, including 12-1 his last season.
It's hard to shake the image that Florida State is a blue-blood because they were so good for so long. But after three losing seasons in a row and reading about their team, they may not be a blue-blood any more. Their defense recorded 9 sacks while their offense suffered 29 sacks. None of their receivers averaged 13.0 yards per catch. They are looking to a Kansas transfer to upgrade their receiving corps and trying to rehabilitate McKenzie Milton, the former Central Florida star who suffered 9 knee surgeries to be their quarterback. This is Florida State? I’m wondering if the rise of Central and South Florida, both of whom are bigger schools, in terms of enrollment, than Miami, Florida or Florida State and in more populated and thus better recruiting areas, (Orlando and Tampa) than Gainesville or Tallahassee, is eroding the power of the traditional “Big Three” in Florida. Then again Southern California, Oklahoma and Alabama have had some down periods and came roaring back to glory. But glory seems down the road a bit for these Seminoles.
Word out of the spring was that Milton’s “mobility was not in question” (Lindy’s) and he “shined in the spring game” (Athlon). In three years at UCF, he threw for 8,683 yards and 72TDs vs. 22 interceptions. Last year’s stater, Jordan Travis is still available. He’s a dual-threat who passed for 1,056 yards and 6 scores (just as many picks) and ran for 559 and 7 scores. He was the team’s leading rusher. That may change this year with running back Jashaun Corbin back (401 at 5.0 per carry and 5TDs). Along with Lawrence Toafill, who averaged a spectacular 9.6, (37/356) for 2 scores. Ontaria Wilson is the top returning receiver, (30/382/2). “FSU spent the spring seeking freshmen to emerge” to pair with Wilson. The ex- Jayhawk is Andrew Parchment. He had 65/831/7 there in 2019. (Parchment?) The offensive line “made strides in run blocking but still allowed 29 sacks in nine games” (Lindy’s).
They ran a 4-2-5 defense last year and gave up 36ppg. They brought in a lot of transfers, led by Jermaine Johnson, a defensive end from Georgia, where he had 5 sacks. “Showing speed and physicality” (Lindy’s) he was ”dominant in practices and scrimmages” (Athlon). The other end could be Keith Thomas from South Carolina. There’s another South Carolina transfer, Jammie Robinson (74 tackles) will be the nickle back. Jarques McCellion from Arkansas and Brandon Moore from Central Florida are “in the mix” for the other D-back spots. Last year two placekickers were both just 4 of 7 on field goals. Freshman punter Alex Mastromanno punted for an impressive 43.5 yard average. Their return game was nothing special, (20.8 KOR, no punt return over 10 yards).
Opposing coaches: “You look at their roster and the majority of these teams would trade their 11 for FSU’s 11 and then some of those teams wind up beating them…. I think you’re seeing a lot of talent leaving for internal reasons. It’s just an inconsistency of culture, going from one polarizing head coach to another and then to another and another. …Right now they’re not recruiting well enough to keep things going without seeing a dip in the next few years.” This is not the Florida State we grew up with but it might be better than last year’s version.
Offense: 25.8 points (85th) 396.7 yards (62nd) 199.9 rushing (31st) 196.8 passing (98th) per game
Defense: 36.0 points (105th) 456.3 yards (107th) 199.2 rushing (97th) 257.1 passing (98th) per game
Turnovers -3 (88th) Average Field Position: 28.1 – 31.7 = -3.6 (102nd)
Phil Steele‘s PS # add up to 2378, still significantly better than our 3613, despite all of their problems.
Saturday 10/9 TBA in the Dome vs. WAKE FOREST TV: TBA
The Deacons set a school record by scoring 36 points a game last year and 10 starters return from that unit, including the entire offensive line and quarterback Sam Hartman, who passed for sm224 yards, 13TDs and just 5 interceptions. He had a streak of 258 passes without one before having a bad bowl game against Wisconsin, (4 picks in a 28-42 loss). His leading receive, Jaquarii Roberson, (62/926/8) is back. They lost Kenneth Walker, who rushed for 13 TDs but transferred to Michigan State. They trumped that by bringing in Christian Turner, a transfer from Michigan. But their leading rusher was Christian Beal-Smith (142/732/5) who only scored 5TDs but averaged more than Walker, (5.2 vs. 4.9).
Wake’s 2020 season was a series of shoot outs as they gave up 33 points a game, four times over 40, on the way to a 4-5 record. Tackle Miles Fox has 10.5TFL’s. Former walk-on Nick Anderson picked off four passes from his safety position. The other safety, Ja’Sir Taylor, has 125 career tackles. Linebacker Ryan Smenda had 16 tackles in the bowl game. The Deacs were a gaudy +10 in turnovers. Kicker Nick Scriba ended a record run of 34 straight field goals but was 14/17. But their punting is inconsistent and “they want more out of their kickoff and punt returns” (Lindy’s)
Opposing coaches: “They are about development, about consistency and serving their system. ….the offensive scheme is always tricky to defend against….Defensively, they’re about as vanilla as you can get, which sort of works for them. Philosophy-wise they want to keep you in front of them, be risk-adverse, bend but don’t break kind of thinking…they’re never going to blow you away on film but they’re always a competent, well-coached team that doesn’t blink against the elite programs.”
Like it or not, this has become a rivalry since we entered the league: 13-0, 30-7, 30-17, 9-28, 43-64, 41-24, 39-30, 14-38. We can’t have a good year without beating these guys.
Offense: 36.0 points (19th) 444.4 yards (28th) 163.0 rushing (63rd) 281.4 passing (26th) per game
Defense: 32.8 points (91st) 435.7 yards (90th) 183.3 rushing (87th) 252.3 passing (91st) per game
Turnovers +10 (8th) Average Field Position: 29.1 – 30.6 = -1.5 (87th)
Phil Steele‘s PS # add up to 4,359, not as good as our 3,613. Athlon: “The NCAA’s ruling to grant another year of eligibility may help Wake Forest more than any other school. The program relies on “coaching up” lower-ranked recruits and playing numerous fifth-year seniors.” They have 9 “super seniors” among their 19 returning starters.
Friday 10/15 7PM in the Dome vs. CLEMSON TV: ESPN
Clemson is Clemson but they don’t have Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne anymore and they may never be quite as good as when they had those two potential Heisman candidates in the same backfield. They’ve also lost their top two receivers. In fact, none of the guys with the ball in their hands who started last season are back. But 9 of 11 defensive starters are, (and defensive savant Brent Venables is still in charge of them). And when the “next man” steps up at Clemson, that means something different than it does at Syracuse. Their entire line-up will consist of players we wish we had.
The new quarterback is 6-4 250 D.J. Uiagalelei, who was the #1 high school recruit two years ago. Last year he subbed for Lawrence and threw for 342 yards against Boston College and 439 against Notre Dame. For the year he was 78/117 (66.7%) for 914 yards and 5TDs with no interceptions. Lindy’s: “Uiagalelei is young but he was nothing short of fantastic in two starts in 2020….has a monster arm, great size and is one of the team’s hardest workers.” Athlon “Uiagalelei…is expected to immediately be a Heiman candidate.” Despite the losses, he’ll have experienced receivers to throw to, (at Clemson, everybody is experienced, they can play so many people). Justyn Ross caught 112 passes for 1,865 yards and 17TDs in his first two years before being injured last year. Senior Lyn-J Dixon will take over for Etienne. Dixon has averaged 6.6 yards per carry in his career. (Etienne averaged 7.2.) But they only averaged 5.4 and 4.5 last year, (still pretty good). Athlon: “Perhaps the area Clemson needs to improve the most is on its offensive line. The Tigers were inconsistent up front last year, particularly struggling to open up running lanes for Etienne and the other backs”. Coach Dabo Swinney hopes “new starting tackle Walker Parks could bring a necessary mean streak to the unit”. The Tigers need to get mean?
They might not have to score all that much for the Tigers to win. They led the league in total defense and the nation in sacks last year. Still, some injuries up front caused Venables to call more blitzes than usual and Clemson gave up more big plays than they were used to, especially to Ohio State in a 28-49 playoff loss. Venables: “We’ve got to improve our ability to dominate.” They have high standards at Clemson. Bryan Bresee was a freshman All American and ACC defensive player of the year at tackle with 33 tackles, 6.5TFLs and 4 sacks. 6th year linebacker James Saleski should be one of the best in the country. He’s the only player to play in 5 ACC title games and is going for a 6th. (Even with all that’s happened, that seems a little strange.) Another 6th year senior, Nolan Turner, leads the secondary. He had 3 picks last year. RT Potter hit 18 of 23 field goals and Will Spiers averaged 44.0 on his punts. Dixon averaged 23.3 on kick-off returns. The Tigers won’t lose a game because of special teams.
Opposing coaches: “Uiagalelei is really, really good. I’m not sure he’s the same sort of running threat at Trevor Lawrence …This kid is a very different athlete…I don’t feel they are quite as good at receiver as in years past…they’ll be better on defense because they’re going to be older…. Those younger edge guys are coming back better, same with the secondary. They’re still the standard, way ahead of the Florida schools, still the best in our league, top to bottom. They’re a level that really skews the curve for this league because there are teams that are improving, like UNC but you can’t tell over the course of a year when you compare them to these guys. “
The thing is, we seem to compete well against this team most to the time, at least for most of the game. Of course, Clemson gets everybody’s ‘A’ game. But we beat them here in 2017 and almost did it in their own place the next year. The last two years we hung in it until the second half. In 2019 it was 6-17 halfway through the third quarter when Amari Rodgers appeared to be hemmed in along the sidelines at their 13-yard line, (I thought he was out), but he escaped for an 87 yarder that broke it open. Last year it was 21-27 when they got a fumble return for a score at the end of the third quarter and then picked off a couple of Rex Culpepper passes to ice it. I’m envious of these guys but not scared of them.
Offense: 43.5 points (3rd) 502.3 yards (10th) 153.8 rushing (75th) 348.5 passing (6th) per game
Defense: 20.2 points (18th) 326.8 yards (15th) 112.7 rushing (15th) 214.2 passing (41st) per game
Turnovers +8 (22nd) Average Field Position: 32.5 – 27.6 = +4.9 (15th)
Phil Steele‘s PS # add up to just 734, just a fraction of our 3,613.
Saturday 10/23 TBA at VIRGINIA TECH TV: TBA
Ah, our old friends the Hokies! And our own house of nightmares, the well-named Blacksburg. We are actually 10-8 all-time against them, including some classic wins like 35-21, (after being down 7-21) in 1987, 28-20 in 1994, a whopping 52-21 in 1996, McNabb-to-Brominski in 1998, 22-14 down there in 2001 and 50-42 in OT up here in 2002. We also beat them the only time we’ve played them in the last 17 years, (amazing, isn’t it?), 31-17 in 2016, (“Vegas didn’t know…”). But some of SU’s worst performances have been in Blacksburg: 24-45 in 1993, 7-31 in 1995, 3-31 in 1997, 0-62 in 1999 and 7-51 in 2003. We’ve lost a lot of respect down there. Now we’ll be looking for it.
The Hokies were national power for a time but have slipped form that status since Frank Beamer retired after the 2015 season: 10-4, 9-4, 6-7, 8-5, 5-6. The AD held a press conference to announce that he was not going to fire Coach Justin Fuente, “never a good sign”. (Athlon) They’ve lost their quarterback, who transferred to Tennessee and their star running back, Khalil Herbert, who jumped to the NFL. Braxton Burmeister, a transfer from Oregon will be the QB this year. Last year he completed 57% for 687 yards, 2TDs and 1 interception. Nobody is back who rushed for more than 255, that being Raheem Bleakshear, who “was never quite himself due to a bout with Covid and a hamstring issue”. He averaged 3.8 and scored twice. But the top four receivers return, led by Travon Robinson and Tre Turner, (on leave from the Nationals?) who had almost identical numbers: 38/592(15.6)/3 and 34/529(15.6)/3. Those are pretty good averages per catch. They have four returning O-linemen with a combined 93 starts in their careers.
The big problem last year was defense. The great Bud Foster retired in 2019 and this isn’t the Hokie defense that you remember. They gave up 32ppg last year, including 56 to UNC, 47 to Pitt and 45 to Clemson. Justin Hamilton replaced Foster and faced the same problems our own Tony White faced: no spring practice and limited time to get things together in the fall. He also lost several players to Covid at different times. He’s lost 5 starters from last year’s group Amare Barno is “an emerging star at defensive end” (Lindy’s) and linebacker Dax Hollifield and nickel back Chamarri Connor are “established playmakers”. Jermaine Walker was “an All-ACC caliber corner” (Athlon) before being injured last year. Clemson transfer Jordan Williams will bolster the D-line. They have to replace both their kicker and their punter. “Punt return was a disaster for the Hokies last year, where they turned it over three times”. (Athlon)
Those catty opposing coaches said “I think they have to do something really big here to win back the fan base and the culture….the issue with them is that they haven’t recruited well, so it gets thin really fast…Their reliance on transfers is the big warning sign…..(The offense) has never really been that promised Big 12 stuff since he got to Tech…Schematically the defense is a mess. They’re trying to marry multiple schemes.”
Offense: 31.1 points (43rd) 440.7 yards (31th) 240.1 rushing (10th) 200.6 passing (89th) per game
Defense: 32.1 points (82nd) 447.5 yards (103rd) 181.5 rushing (85th) 266.0 passing (107th) per game
Turnovers +3 (45th) Average Field Position: 30.1 – 27.6 = +2.5 (38th)
Phil Steele‘s PS # add up to 2,490 significantly better than our 3,613.
Saturday 10/30 TBA in the Dome vs. BOSTON COLLEGE TV: TBA
The last two times Boston College came to the Dome they beat us 14-42 and 27-58. Those powerhouses were 7-6 and 6-7. So playing them at home doesn’t mean much. They have been famous for their ‘ground and pound’ attacks, which we have a hard time handling up front. But that didn’t prevent them from scoring 5 times in 9 plays from scrimmage in the second quarter of the 2019 game, 4 of them from 50+ yards out. Driving home from a BC game happy would be a new experience.
They have been transitioning to a more dynamic offensive concept under Coach Jeff Halfley behind a more dynamic quarterback, 6-5 225 Notre Dame transfer Phil Jurkovec. “he’s back after showcasing a strong arm, good decision making and toughness in the pocket that drew comparisons to the Steelers’ Ben Rothlisberger” (Lindy’s). He completed 61% of his passes for 2,558 yards, 17TD and 5 picks. He’s lost his “security blanket” (Athlon), tight end Hunter Long, (57/685/5). Why can’t we have a ‘security blanket”?
Jurkovec has his next four receivers to commiserate with him: Zay Flowers (56/892/9, Travis Levy (35/285/0), Jaelen Gill (29/435/1) and CJ Lewis 28/460/5. They also get back Kobay White, who was injured last year but in his first three years caught 96 passes for 1,409 yards and 10TDs. The battle between our defensive backs and their receivers should be interesting. They lost their leading rusher, Davis Bailey, who transferred to Colorado State to play for his old coach, Steve Addazio. He probably realized that he didn’t fit into new OC Frank Cignetti’s offense. Their offensive line “returns five starters and features four that might be drafted in 2022, lead by All-ACC center Alec Lindstrom, an All-American candidate”. (Lindy’s)
Two years ago their defense was a disaster, 32.2ppg with all rankings in the 1000’s. Last year they improved to 28.4ppg and rankings from 73rd to 82nd. But they’ve got only 4 starters returning from that group, 6 if you look at Lindy’s instead of Athlon. Neither publication says much about their defensive line, although Lindy’s says nose tackle TJ Tayam is an anchor there. They run a 4-2-5 and the ‘2’, linebackers Max Richardson and Isaiah McDuffie are gone. Their pride and joy is their secondary. Lindy’s: “With Brandon Sebastian and Josh DeBerry, the Eagles have a pair of corners who they think can match up with almost any two receivers on their schedule. The safety position is strong with Maryland transfer Deon Jones returning after a break-out season in 2020. Mike Palmer and Florida State transfer Jaiden Lars-Woodbey give the BC three quality players at the position.“ Athlon: “The safety group is headlined by transfer and former 5-star recruit Jaiden Lars-Woodbey, who started 22 games for Florida State.” Aaron Boumerhi made 16 of 20 field goals and Grant Carleson averaged 42.4 yards per punt, including 15 inside the opponent’s 20. (Shouldn’t he be named ‘Boomerhigh’?)
Athlon notes that BC hasn’t won 8 games since 2009, (they’d won 7 games five times in that stretch and were 6-5 last year) and want to break through that barrier this year. Lindy’s expects them to “make waves in the Atlantic Division”. The nameless coaches: “It’s not going to show up in the win column just yet but this is a team in our conference that’s secretly building…you can see that they’re doing some really smart stuff. Schematically, they’re day and night better than the previous staff, especially on defense….Right now, they’re still below-average overall in terms of talent…They need to fit to the defensive scheme better and recruit better talent overall and I think they want to balance the run/pass a little bit more…..They’re recruiting the entire country right now and pushing hard in private and Catholic schools…They have a unique pitch we’ve heard about where they’re looking to push the NFL experience for players, boasting about the NFL experience on the staff.”
Offense: 27.8 points (68th) 385.9 yards (72th) 101.7 rushing (118th) 284.2 passing (24th) per game
Defense: 28.4 points (60th) 416.80 yards (73rd) 171.4 rushing (73rd) 245.5 passing (82nd) per game
Turnovers +7 (24th) Average Field Position: 31.3 – 29.5 = +1.8 (49th)
Phil Steele‘s PS # add up to 4,102 not as good as our 3,613.
When will Florida State become FLORIDA STATE again? When we entered this conference, they were the dominant team, beating Clemson 51-14 and running a 14-game table to the national championship. The next year they ran their winning streak to 29 games before losing to Oregon in the first playoff. After that it was 10-3, 10-3, 7-6, 5-7, 6-7 and 3-6 last year. Their scores against Clemson after 51-14 were 23-17, 13-23, 34-37, 14-31, 10-59 and 14-45, (they didn’t play last year). This is a program that set a record by being ranked in the top 4 teams in the final polls every year from 1987-2000. They declined form that level late in the Bowden era, finishing ranked from 10th to 23rd, (but still ranked) from 2001-2011. Then Jimbo Fisher brought them back to #8 in 2012 and that 14-0 championship season of 2013, their third national championship. The decline had begun under Fisher, who left after the 5-7 year in 2017. Willie Taggert wasn’t able to turn it around in two years, (and the Noles weren’t as patient as South Florida, where Taggart did get it turned around in his 3rd season). They then hired Mike Norvell, who went 38-15 at Memphis, including 12-1 his last season.
It's hard to shake the image that Florida State is a blue-blood because they were so good for so long. But after three losing seasons in a row and reading about their team, they may not be a blue-blood any more. Their defense recorded 9 sacks while their offense suffered 29 sacks. None of their receivers averaged 13.0 yards per catch. They are looking to a Kansas transfer to upgrade their receiving corps and trying to rehabilitate McKenzie Milton, the former Central Florida star who suffered 9 knee surgeries to be their quarterback. This is Florida State? I’m wondering if the rise of Central and South Florida, both of whom are bigger schools, in terms of enrollment, than Miami, Florida or Florida State and in more populated and thus better recruiting areas, (Orlando and Tampa) than Gainesville or Tallahassee, is eroding the power of the traditional “Big Three” in Florida. Then again Southern California, Oklahoma and Alabama have had some down periods and came roaring back to glory. But glory seems down the road a bit for these Seminoles.
Word out of the spring was that Milton’s “mobility was not in question” (Lindy’s) and he “shined in the spring game” (Athlon). In three years at UCF, he threw for 8,683 yards and 72TDs vs. 22 interceptions. Last year’s stater, Jordan Travis is still available. He’s a dual-threat who passed for 1,056 yards and 6 scores (just as many picks) and ran for 559 and 7 scores. He was the team’s leading rusher. That may change this year with running back Jashaun Corbin back (401 at 5.0 per carry and 5TDs). Along with Lawrence Toafill, who averaged a spectacular 9.6, (37/356) for 2 scores. Ontaria Wilson is the top returning receiver, (30/382/2). “FSU spent the spring seeking freshmen to emerge” to pair with Wilson. The ex- Jayhawk is Andrew Parchment. He had 65/831/7 there in 2019. (Parchment?) The offensive line “made strides in run blocking but still allowed 29 sacks in nine games” (Lindy’s).
They ran a 4-2-5 defense last year and gave up 36ppg. They brought in a lot of transfers, led by Jermaine Johnson, a defensive end from Georgia, where he had 5 sacks. “Showing speed and physicality” (Lindy’s) he was ”dominant in practices and scrimmages” (Athlon). The other end could be Keith Thomas from South Carolina. There’s another South Carolina transfer, Jammie Robinson (74 tackles) will be the nickle back. Jarques McCellion from Arkansas and Brandon Moore from Central Florida are “in the mix” for the other D-back spots. Last year two placekickers were both just 4 of 7 on field goals. Freshman punter Alex Mastromanno punted for an impressive 43.5 yard average. Their return game was nothing special, (20.8 KOR, no punt return over 10 yards).
Opposing coaches: “You look at their roster and the majority of these teams would trade their 11 for FSU’s 11 and then some of those teams wind up beating them…. I think you’re seeing a lot of talent leaving for internal reasons. It’s just an inconsistency of culture, going from one polarizing head coach to another and then to another and another. …Right now they’re not recruiting well enough to keep things going without seeing a dip in the next few years.” This is not the Florida State we grew up with but it might be better than last year’s version.
Offense: 25.8 points (85th) 396.7 yards (62nd) 199.9 rushing (31st) 196.8 passing (98th) per game
Defense: 36.0 points (105th) 456.3 yards (107th) 199.2 rushing (97th) 257.1 passing (98th) per game
Turnovers -3 (88th) Average Field Position: 28.1 – 31.7 = -3.6 (102nd)
Phil Steele‘s PS # add up to 2378, still significantly better than our 3613, despite all of their problems.
Saturday 10/9 TBA in the Dome vs. WAKE FOREST TV: TBA
The Deacons set a school record by scoring 36 points a game last year and 10 starters return from that unit, including the entire offensive line and quarterback Sam Hartman, who passed for sm224 yards, 13TDs and just 5 interceptions. He had a streak of 258 passes without one before having a bad bowl game against Wisconsin, (4 picks in a 28-42 loss). His leading receive, Jaquarii Roberson, (62/926/8) is back. They lost Kenneth Walker, who rushed for 13 TDs but transferred to Michigan State. They trumped that by bringing in Christian Turner, a transfer from Michigan. But their leading rusher was Christian Beal-Smith (142/732/5) who only scored 5TDs but averaged more than Walker, (5.2 vs. 4.9).
Wake’s 2020 season was a series of shoot outs as they gave up 33 points a game, four times over 40, on the way to a 4-5 record. Tackle Miles Fox has 10.5TFL’s. Former walk-on Nick Anderson picked off four passes from his safety position. The other safety, Ja’Sir Taylor, has 125 career tackles. Linebacker Ryan Smenda had 16 tackles in the bowl game. The Deacs were a gaudy +10 in turnovers. Kicker Nick Scriba ended a record run of 34 straight field goals but was 14/17. But their punting is inconsistent and “they want more out of their kickoff and punt returns” (Lindy’s)
Opposing coaches: “They are about development, about consistency and serving their system. ….the offensive scheme is always tricky to defend against….Defensively, they’re about as vanilla as you can get, which sort of works for them. Philosophy-wise they want to keep you in front of them, be risk-adverse, bend but don’t break kind of thinking…they’re never going to blow you away on film but they’re always a competent, well-coached team that doesn’t blink against the elite programs.”
Like it or not, this has become a rivalry since we entered the league: 13-0, 30-7, 30-17, 9-28, 43-64, 41-24, 39-30, 14-38. We can’t have a good year without beating these guys.
Offense: 36.0 points (19th) 444.4 yards (28th) 163.0 rushing (63rd) 281.4 passing (26th) per game
Defense: 32.8 points (91st) 435.7 yards (90th) 183.3 rushing (87th) 252.3 passing (91st) per game
Turnovers +10 (8th) Average Field Position: 29.1 – 30.6 = -1.5 (87th)
Phil Steele‘s PS # add up to 4,359, not as good as our 3,613. Athlon: “The NCAA’s ruling to grant another year of eligibility may help Wake Forest more than any other school. The program relies on “coaching up” lower-ranked recruits and playing numerous fifth-year seniors.” They have 9 “super seniors” among their 19 returning starters.
Friday 10/15 7PM in the Dome vs. CLEMSON TV: ESPN
Clemson is Clemson but they don’t have Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne anymore and they may never be quite as good as when they had those two potential Heisman candidates in the same backfield. They’ve also lost their top two receivers. In fact, none of the guys with the ball in their hands who started last season are back. But 9 of 11 defensive starters are, (and defensive savant Brent Venables is still in charge of them). And when the “next man” steps up at Clemson, that means something different than it does at Syracuse. Their entire line-up will consist of players we wish we had.
The new quarterback is 6-4 250 D.J. Uiagalelei, who was the #1 high school recruit two years ago. Last year he subbed for Lawrence and threw for 342 yards against Boston College and 439 against Notre Dame. For the year he was 78/117 (66.7%) for 914 yards and 5TDs with no interceptions. Lindy’s: “Uiagalelei is young but he was nothing short of fantastic in two starts in 2020….has a monster arm, great size and is one of the team’s hardest workers.” Athlon “Uiagalelei…is expected to immediately be a Heiman candidate.” Despite the losses, he’ll have experienced receivers to throw to, (at Clemson, everybody is experienced, they can play so many people). Justyn Ross caught 112 passes for 1,865 yards and 17TDs in his first two years before being injured last year. Senior Lyn-J Dixon will take over for Etienne. Dixon has averaged 6.6 yards per carry in his career. (Etienne averaged 7.2.) But they only averaged 5.4 and 4.5 last year, (still pretty good). Athlon: “Perhaps the area Clemson needs to improve the most is on its offensive line. The Tigers were inconsistent up front last year, particularly struggling to open up running lanes for Etienne and the other backs”. Coach Dabo Swinney hopes “new starting tackle Walker Parks could bring a necessary mean streak to the unit”. The Tigers need to get mean?
They might not have to score all that much for the Tigers to win. They led the league in total defense and the nation in sacks last year. Still, some injuries up front caused Venables to call more blitzes than usual and Clemson gave up more big plays than they were used to, especially to Ohio State in a 28-49 playoff loss. Venables: “We’ve got to improve our ability to dominate.” They have high standards at Clemson. Bryan Bresee was a freshman All American and ACC defensive player of the year at tackle with 33 tackles, 6.5TFLs and 4 sacks. 6th year linebacker James Saleski should be one of the best in the country. He’s the only player to play in 5 ACC title games and is going for a 6th. (Even with all that’s happened, that seems a little strange.) Another 6th year senior, Nolan Turner, leads the secondary. He had 3 picks last year. RT Potter hit 18 of 23 field goals and Will Spiers averaged 44.0 on his punts. Dixon averaged 23.3 on kick-off returns. The Tigers won’t lose a game because of special teams.
Opposing coaches: “Uiagalelei is really, really good. I’m not sure he’s the same sort of running threat at Trevor Lawrence …This kid is a very different athlete…I don’t feel they are quite as good at receiver as in years past…they’ll be better on defense because they’re going to be older…. Those younger edge guys are coming back better, same with the secondary. They’re still the standard, way ahead of the Florida schools, still the best in our league, top to bottom. They’re a level that really skews the curve for this league because there are teams that are improving, like UNC but you can’t tell over the course of a year when you compare them to these guys. “
The thing is, we seem to compete well against this team most to the time, at least for most of the game. Of course, Clemson gets everybody’s ‘A’ game. But we beat them here in 2017 and almost did it in their own place the next year. The last two years we hung in it until the second half. In 2019 it was 6-17 halfway through the third quarter when Amari Rodgers appeared to be hemmed in along the sidelines at their 13-yard line, (I thought he was out), but he escaped for an 87 yarder that broke it open. Last year it was 21-27 when they got a fumble return for a score at the end of the third quarter and then picked off a couple of Rex Culpepper passes to ice it. I’m envious of these guys but not scared of them.
Offense: 43.5 points (3rd) 502.3 yards (10th) 153.8 rushing (75th) 348.5 passing (6th) per game
Defense: 20.2 points (18th) 326.8 yards (15th) 112.7 rushing (15th) 214.2 passing (41st) per game
Turnovers +8 (22nd) Average Field Position: 32.5 – 27.6 = +4.9 (15th)
Phil Steele‘s PS # add up to just 734, just a fraction of our 3,613.
Saturday 10/23 TBA at VIRGINIA TECH TV: TBA
Ah, our old friends the Hokies! And our own house of nightmares, the well-named Blacksburg. We are actually 10-8 all-time against them, including some classic wins like 35-21, (after being down 7-21) in 1987, 28-20 in 1994, a whopping 52-21 in 1996, McNabb-to-Brominski in 1998, 22-14 down there in 2001 and 50-42 in OT up here in 2002. We also beat them the only time we’ve played them in the last 17 years, (amazing, isn’t it?), 31-17 in 2016, (“Vegas didn’t know…”). But some of SU’s worst performances have been in Blacksburg: 24-45 in 1993, 7-31 in 1995, 3-31 in 1997, 0-62 in 1999 and 7-51 in 2003. We’ve lost a lot of respect down there. Now we’ll be looking for it.
The Hokies were national power for a time but have slipped form that status since Frank Beamer retired after the 2015 season: 10-4, 9-4, 6-7, 8-5, 5-6. The AD held a press conference to announce that he was not going to fire Coach Justin Fuente, “never a good sign”. (Athlon) They’ve lost their quarterback, who transferred to Tennessee and their star running back, Khalil Herbert, who jumped to the NFL. Braxton Burmeister, a transfer from Oregon will be the QB this year. Last year he completed 57% for 687 yards, 2TDs and 1 interception. Nobody is back who rushed for more than 255, that being Raheem Bleakshear, who “was never quite himself due to a bout with Covid and a hamstring issue”. He averaged 3.8 and scored twice. But the top four receivers return, led by Travon Robinson and Tre Turner, (on leave from the Nationals?) who had almost identical numbers: 38/592(15.6)/3 and 34/529(15.6)/3. Those are pretty good averages per catch. They have four returning O-linemen with a combined 93 starts in their careers.
The big problem last year was defense. The great Bud Foster retired in 2019 and this isn’t the Hokie defense that you remember. They gave up 32ppg last year, including 56 to UNC, 47 to Pitt and 45 to Clemson. Justin Hamilton replaced Foster and faced the same problems our own Tony White faced: no spring practice and limited time to get things together in the fall. He also lost several players to Covid at different times. He’s lost 5 starters from last year’s group Amare Barno is “an emerging star at defensive end” (Lindy’s) and linebacker Dax Hollifield and nickel back Chamarri Connor are “established playmakers”. Jermaine Walker was “an All-ACC caliber corner” (Athlon) before being injured last year. Clemson transfer Jordan Williams will bolster the D-line. They have to replace both their kicker and their punter. “Punt return was a disaster for the Hokies last year, where they turned it over three times”. (Athlon)
Those catty opposing coaches said “I think they have to do something really big here to win back the fan base and the culture….the issue with them is that they haven’t recruited well, so it gets thin really fast…Their reliance on transfers is the big warning sign…..(The offense) has never really been that promised Big 12 stuff since he got to Tech…Schematically the defense is a mess. They’re trying to marry multiple schemes.”
Offense: 31.1 points (43rd) 440.7 yards (31th) 240.1 rushing (10th) 200.6 passing (89th) per game
Defense: 32.1 points (82nd) 447.5 yards (103rd) 181.5 rushing (85th) 266.0 passing (107th) per game
Turnovers +3 (45th) Average Field Position: 30.1 – 27.6 = +2.5 (38th)
Phil Steele‘s PS # add up to 2,490 significantly better than our 3,613.
Saturday 10/30 TBA in the Dome vs. BOSTON COLLEGE TV: TBA
The last two times Boston College came to the Dome they beat us 14-42 and 27-58. Those powerhouses were 7-6 and 6-7. So playing them at home doesn’t mean much. They have been famous for their ‘ground and pound’ attacks, which we have a hard time handling up front. But that didn’t prevent them from scoring 5 times in 9 plays from scrimmage in the second quarter of the 2019 game, 4 of them from 50+ yards out. Driving home from a BC game happy would be a new experience.
They have been transitioning to a more dynamic offensive concept under Coach Jeff Halfley behind a more dynamic quarterback, 6-5 225 Notre Dame transfer Phil Jurkovec. “he’s back after showcasing a strong arm, good decision making and toughness in the pocket that drew comparisons to the Steelers’ Ben Rothlisberger” (Lindy’s). He completed 61% of his passes for 2,558 yards, 17TD and 5 picks. He’s lost his “security blanket” (Athlon), tight end Hunter Long, (57/685/5). Why can’t we have a ‘security blanket”?
Jurkovec has his next four receivers to commiserate with him: Zay Flowers (56/892/9, Travis Levy (35/285/0), Jaelen Gill (29/435/1) and CJ Lewis 28/460/5. They also get back Kobay White, who was injured last year but in his first three years caught 96 passes for 1,409 yards and 10TDs. The battle between our defensive backs and their receivers should be interesting. They lost their leading rusher, Davis Bailey, who transferred to Colorado State to play for his old coach, Steve Addazio. He probably realized that he didn’t fit into new OC Frank Cignetti’s offense. Their offensive line “returns five starters and features four that might be drafted in 2022, lead by All-ACC center Alec Lindstrom, an All-American candidate”. (Lindy’s)
Two years ago their defense was a disaster, 32.2ppg with all rankings in the 1000’s. Last year they improved to 28.4ppg and rankings from 73rd to 82nd. But they’ve got only 4 starters returning from that group, 6 if you look at Lindy’s instead of Athlon. Neither publication says much about their defensive line, although Lindy’s says nose tackle TJ Tayam is an anchor there. They run a 4-2-5 and the ‘2’, linebackers Max Richardson and Isaiah McDuffie are gone. Their pride and joy is their secondary. Lindy’s: “With Brandon Sebastian and Josh DeBerry, the Eagles have a pair of corners who they think can match up with almost any two receivers on their schedule. The safety position is strong with Maryland transfer Deon Jones returning after a break-out season in 2020. Mike Palmer and Florida State transfer Jaiden Lars-Woodbey give the BC three quality players at the position.“ Athlon: “The safety group is headlined by transfer and former 5-star recruit Jaiden Lars-Woodbey, who started 22 games for Florida State.” Aaron Boumerhi made 16 of 20 field goals and Grant Carleson averaged 42.4 yards per punt, including 15 inside the opponent’s 20. (Shouldn’t he be named ‘Boomerhigh’?)
Athlon notes that BC hasn’t won 8 games since 2009, (they’d won 7 games five times in that stretch and were 6-5 last year) and want to break through that barrier this year. Lindy’s expects them to “make waves in the Atlantic Division”. The nameless coaches: “It’s not going to show up in the win column just yet but this is a team in our conference that’s secretly building…you can see that they’re doing some really smart stuff. Schematically, they’re day and night better than the previous staff, especially on defense….Right now, they’re still below-average overall in terms of talent…They need to fit to the defensive scheme better and recruit better talent overall and I think they want to balance the run/pass a little bit more…..They’re recruiting the entire country right now and pushing hard in private and Catholic schools…They have a unique pitch we’ve heard about where they’re looking to push the NFL experience for players, boasting about the NFL experience on the staff.”
Offense: 27.8 points (68th) 385.9 yards (72th) 101.7 rushing (118th) 284.2 passing (24th) per game
Defense: 28.4 points (60th) 416.80 yards (73rd) 171.4 rushing (73rd) 245.5 passing (82nd) per game
Turnovers +7 (24th) Average Field Position: 31.3 – 29.5 = +1.8 (49th)
Phil Steele‘s PS # add up to 4,102 not as good as our 3,613.
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