SWC75
Bored Historian
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11/6/21: A much needed week off.
Saturday 11/13 TBA at LOUISVILLE TV: TBA
We’ve had some bad days against the Cardinals in recent years. They beat us 41-17 in 2015, 62-28 in 2016, 56-10 in 2017, lost to us 54-23 in what now seems like our magical year of 2018, but beat us 34-56 in 2019 and 0-30 last year. It comes down to one simple thing: we haven’t been able to deal with their speed. Those losses were Louisville highlight films, with their players taking it the distance so many times it looked like a high school recruiting film. They were actually a disappointing 4-7 last year. We didn’t notice because it’s hard to see other team’s problems when all you could see was our own 1-10 record. They looked pretty good to us when they beat us by 30 points.
Four coaches have left the staff, including OC Dwayne Ledford. Head Coach Scott Satterfield almost left for South Carolina and apologized to Louisville fans when he decided to stay. He decided not to hire a replacement for Ledford and will call the plays himself. Quarterback Malik Cunningham was responsible for 15 turnovers. The team itself had 24 turnovers and was -12, #119 in the country. Cunningham did complete 64% of his passes for 2,617 yards and 20TDs vs. 12 interceptions, so he is a talent. His two primary targets, Tutu Atwell and Dez Fitzpatrick, are gone. Branden Smith (27/370/0 – yes, 0) and tight end Marshon Ford (25/309/6) are back. Top rusher Javian Hawkins also left but the four guys behind him are back, although that included Cunningham who was #2 with 609 yards and 7TDs. Hassan Hall, who ran for 501 yards two years ago but fell to 223 (4.1)and 2 scores last year, was #1 in the spring. Their line has 7 players who have started a game available and will be bolstered by Virginia Tech transfer Bryan Hudson, who can play multiple positions.
The Cardinals were the only ACC team to give up less than 200 ypg passing and they only surrendered 189. Lindy’s: “Defensive ends Yaya Diaby and Tabarius Peterson gave the Cardinals pass rush the edge it had been missing, showing an ability to seal the edge and collapse the pocket.” (Yaya Diaby?!?) Linebacker CJ Avery, who led in tackles the last two seasons, took that 5th season of eligibility and is back. Cornerback Tre Clark, a liberty transfer, “starred as a man-to-man coverage guy” (Athlon) and “is perhaps the best player on defense”. (Lindy’s) Kendrick Duncan, who was all C-USA for Georgia Southern, has now transferred in to play safety. James Turner hit 13 of 15 field goals but they are looking for a punter. Hall and Smith should split return duties.
Athlon: “Satterfield has work to fixing the offense, upgrading the defense and repairing his relationship with fans…. Defensively, Louisville should continue to improve, but it’s not a group with elite ACC talent.” Those nameless coaches: “It’s too early to throw up a red flag but there are some alarming things you can see from the outside….it seems like they’re losing more players and coaches than you’d expect….they’ve lost a lot of their most talented guys…the easiest way to look at it is that they are running the same offense and basically the same defense that had at Appalachian State, (from where Satterfield came) but now they are playing teams with equal or better talent, which almost never happened there.” Could that be Dino’s problem?
Offense: 29.5 points (55th) 444.2 yards (29th) 200.0 rushing (29th) 244.2 passing (48th) per game
Defense: 26.6 points (49th) 369.1 yards (39th) 179.9 rushing (80th) 189.2 passing (17th) per game
Turnovers -12 (119th) Average Field Position: 26.5 – 33.6 = -7.1 (118th)
Phil Steele‘s PS # add up to just 2,717 better than our 3,613.
Saturday 11/20 TBA at NORTH CAROLINA STATE TV: TBA
Ah, the Wolfpack. We’ve gotten plenty of teeth marks over the years from this bunch: Syracuse vs North Carolina State 1869-2020
(they haven’t yet added in 2020, when we lost to them 29-36)
The thing is, since the schools first played in 1972, State has won 55% of their games and the Cuse has won 50%. That suggests a close series, but it’s been anything but. Last year they went 8-4 and will likely be even better this year.
They have their top three running backs and four of their top five receivers back as well as one of the tow quarterbacks they used and the brother of a former star to back him up. Their scoring output jumped 8 points a game, (to that magic 30ppg mark) last year under new OC Tim Beck and that’s what he accomplished with no spring practice and limited practices in the fall, as well as no weak non-conference opponents to pad the stats. QB Bailey Hockman is gone but Devin Leary (60%, 8.1per attempt and 8TD/2int) is back after season-ending injury in the fifth game. He’ll battle for the position with Ben Finlay, Ryan’s brother. They will be throwing to Emeka Emezie (47/738/5), Thayer Thomas (42/529/6, Devin Carter (29/477/7) and Porter Brooks (24/276/0) and handing off to Bam Knight (143/788/10), Rickey Person (147/643/4) and Jordan Houston (42/143/3). Left tackle Ikem Ekwonu will be starting for the third year in a row “and has quickly developed in to one of the best run blockers in the conference”, (Athlon) The other tackle, Tyrone Riley, will be playing his SEVENTH year for the Wolfpack due to redshirts, injuries, Covid, etc. Talk about a graybeard!
Their defense was good against the pass with 32 sacks and 10 interceptions. Their run defense gave up 4.3 per carry. Virginia Tech, (314) and North Carolina (326) had big games, as did Kentucky (288) in the bowl game. Their strength is in their linebackers: Drake Thomas, Isaiah Moore and Payton Wilson, who only played in 10 games but had 108 tackles and was all-conference. But he’s coming off surgeries on both shoulders. They also run a 3-3-5 so those line backers are key. They lost 2/3 of the D-line and 3/5 of the secondary. Their kicking game is as good as anybody’s. Christopher Dunn is 56 of 67 on field goals, including a 53 yarder and he’s made all 122 PATs. Trenton Gil has averaged a whopping 46.3 yards per punt in his career.
Lindy’s reports “expectations could be soaring by 2021 kickoff” and Athlon says that this could “push for double-digit wins for only the second time in school history….if the run defense can tighten up”. In the revamped schedule, they got to play 6 Coastal teams vs. 4 Atlantic teams and didn’t play Clemson or Notre Dame, although they were the one team that beat Liberty. Those mean nameless coaches said “They surprised a lot of folks but it might have been a dead-cat bounce last year.”
Definition: Dead cat bounce - Wikipedia
They’ll beat the bad teams and lose to the good ones.” (We need to become a good one by game #11). “QB Devin Leary is a good player….the downside is that you need more talent around him….defensively, they’re below average when you break it down by unit…they had to score in bunches to beat you.”
Offense: 30.2 points (48th) 385.3 yards (74th) 122.5 rushing (107th) 262.8 passing (36th) per game
Defense: 29.2 points (62nd) 415.0 yards (71st) 173.9 rushing (75th) 241.1 passing (78th) per game
Turnovers -6 (97th) Average Field Position: 29.7 – 28.5 = +1.2 (153rd)
Phil Steele‘s PS # add up to just 1,776, much better than our 3,613.
Saturday 11/27 TBA in the Dome vs. PITTSBURGH TV: TBA
The series between these two perennial recruiting rivals had been like a pro wresting match with alternate periods of dominance: SU won 11 of 16 from 1957-72, then lost 11 in a row, then won 16 of 18 with 1 tie, (our last) and since 2002, we are 3-17:
(Again, we are missing 2020, where we lost 10-21). We won’t really be back until we turn this series around and start beating these guys again.
Like Boston College, we are used to the Panthers running the ball down our throats but they have changed their approach under OC Mark Whipple. They had the #111 rushing attack in FBS last year but were #39 in passing. QB Kenny Pickett decided to use his extra Covid year . Last season he was 61% for 2,408 yards, (7.3 per attempt) for 13TDs, (which seems a little low for the #39 passing attack) and 9 interceptions. Jordan Addison (60/666/4) is back as his main target, (just 11.1 per catch). The freshman had 10 drops so he’ll be working to be more consistent. Shocky Jacques-Louis, (26/327/0) and Taysir Mack (23/305/2) are also back. (Shocky and Taysir?) Vincent Davis gained 632 yards on 143 carries and 6 scores. He got 247 yards of that in the finale against Georgia Tech. If he can’t maintain that level, it could create an opening for highly regarded Israel Abanikanda. The line lost All-ACC center Jimmy Morrisey but has tackles Curtis Warren and Gabe Houry, guards Jake Kradel and Blake Zubovic and Maryland transfer Marcus Minor, who have 43 starts between them.
The Panther defense roared to #3 nationally against the run and #20 overall with 111 TFLs and 46 sacks. They lost 5 starters from that defense, including ¾ of the defensive line and both safeties. The defensive ends, Patrick Jones and Rashad Weaver were both All-Americans. Chief back-up Deslin Alexandre had 6.5 of those TFLs, 3 sacks and a fumble recovery. The linebackers are all back: Cam Bright, Chase Pine and Phil Campbell and leading back-up SirVocea Dennis, (from CBA), who totaled 30TFLs and 15.5 sacks. “Damar Hamlin, Jason Pinnock and Paris Ford are off to the NFL but safety Brandon Hill and corners Marquis Williams and Damarri Mathis are all capable of being All-ACC players.” (Lindy’s) Troublesome, (to SU) Alex Kressman is gone. Punter Kirk Christodoulou averaged 44.7.
They’ve been in a rut of having at least 5 losses in 11 consecutive years. (We’ve had at least 5 losses in 20 of the last 22 years). Coach Pat Narduzzi has said “I want to win a championship here”. But Athlon “expects Pittsburgh to stay on trend in 2021.” Those opposing coaches: “They’re consistently inconsistent” (They are consistent against us.) “You expect them to be predictable but play hard. They’re not going to scheme you to death but they’re always really sound. This is the team in our league that wins one game they have no business winning loses three they shouldn’t.” (Is that ‘sound’) “They have a talented quarterback they don’t seem to know what to do with. Their passing game is bad and it shouldn’t be. They got away from the run game and it hurt them. They don’t know what they want to be on offense, or maybe it’s just too many ideas….They had some really nice players on the defensive end and in the secondary that they’re losing and it’s going to be a regression year replacing those guys because this is not a program that recruits particularly well.”
Offense: 29.0 points (58th) 379.6 yards (79th) 119.9 rushing (111th) 259.7 passing (39th) per game
Defense: 24.5 points (37th) 339.5 yards (20th) 93.5 rushing (3rd) 246.0 passing (85th) per game
Turnovers +4 (38th) Average Field Position: 31.6 – 29.3 = +2.3 (42nd)
Phil Steele‘s PS # add up to just 3,110, better than our 3,613.
I will say that, coming off that 1-10 year, only the Albany game seems like an obvious win. It’s easy to imagine everyone else beating us. But I think we were probably a 4-5 win team when fully healthy and playing a full schedule that went 1-10 because of Covid, injuries and the revamped schedule. We could jump up to that level if only because it’s 20201, not 2020, when everything went wrong. We need to be a bit better than that.
I think we’re better than Ohio and will get Rutgers at home. We’ve got a shot at being 3-0 going into the Liberty game and will have a revenge motive there. I had assumed that Florida State would make a quick comeback and return to their normal status as a national power. I no longer think that. They may become what Miami has been since the early 2000’s: a former power spinning it’s wheels. Wake Forest has become a solid program and a rival: we are both trying to climb the standings and have had some memorable games against each other. That will continue. Clemson is Clemson but I’m not sure they will be quite on the level of their national championship teams. We compete well against them but have a hard time doing it for four quarters. But we’ve got them here and another big upset is not impossible. Virginia Tech isn’t the team we used to have a great rivalry with in the Big East days. They might be headed for some down years. Louisville seems to be slipping a bit but they keep rolling over us. NC State looks dangerous and they always are to us. Both Boston College and Pitt are transitioning from a playing style that might have been more appropriate to them than what they are trying to do but have very good quarterbacks to try to make it work.
As I said at the beginning, I don’t look at the schedule ahead of time and see wins and losses. All I know is that we need a winning season to wipe out the bad taste of what’s happened the last two years. We have a lot of good young talent as the residue or the 10-3 season, when the recruiting of those players began. If we can’t get this thing turned around quickly, there will be a recruiting class that is the legacy of the 1-10 in another year or two. I think this team is good enough to get that winning season that we need – this year. If they can’t do it, that’s likely to get harder.
Saturday 11/13 TBA at LOUISVILLE TV: TBA
We’ve had some bad days against the Cardinals in recent years. They beat us 41-17 in 2015, 62-28 in 2016, 56-10 in 2017, lost to us 54-23 in what now seems like our magical year of 2018, but beat us 34-56 in 2019 and 0-30 last year. It comes down to one simple thing: we haven’t been able to deal with their speed. Those losses were Louisville highlight films, with their players taking it the distance so many times it looked like a high school recruiting film. They were actually a disappointing 4-7 last year. We didn’t notice because it’s hard to see other team’s problems when all you could see was our own 1-10 record. They looked pretty good to us when they beat us by 30 points.
Four coaches have left the staff, including OC Dwayne Ledford. Head Coach Scott Satterfield almost left for South Carolina and apologized to Louisville fans when he decided to stay. He decided not to hire a replacement for Ledford and will call the plays himself. Quarterback Malik Cunningham was responsible for 15 turnovers. The team itself had 24 turnovers and was -12, #119 in the country. Cunningham did complete 64% of his passes for 2,617 yards and 20TDs vs. 12 interceptions, so he is a talent. His two primary targets, Tutu Atwell and Dez Fitzpatrick, are gone. Branden Smith (27/370/0 – yes, 0) and tight end Marshon Ford (25/309/6) are back. Top rusher Javian Hawkins also left but the four guys behind him are back, although that included Cunningham who was #2 with 609 yards and 7TDs. Hassan Hall, who ran for 501 yards two years ago but fell to 223 (4.1)and 2 scores last year, was #1 in the spring. Their line has 7 players who have started a game available and will be bolstered by Virginia Tech transfer Bryan Hudson, who can play multiple positions.
The Cardinals were the only ACC team to give up less than 200 ypg passing and they only surrendered 189. Lindy’s: “Defensive ends Yaya Diaby and Tabarius Peterson gave the Cardinals pass rush the edge it had been missing, showing an ability to seal the edge and collapse the pocket.” (Yaya Diaby?!?) Linebacker CJ Avery, who led in tackles the last two seasons, took that 5th season of eligibility and is back. Cornerback Tre Clark, a liberty transfer, “starred as a man-to-man coverage guy” (Athlon) and “is perhaps the best player on defense”. (Lindy’s) Kendrick Duncan, who was all C-USA for Georgia Southern, has now transferred in to play safety. James Turner hit 13 of 15 field goals but they are looking for a punter. Hall and Smith should split return duties.
Athlon: “Satterfield has work to fixing the offense, upgrading the defense and repairing his relationship with fans…. Defensively, Louisville should continue to improve, but it’s not a group with elite ACC talent.” Those nameless coaches: “It’s too early to throw up a red flag but there are some alarming things you can see from the outside….it seems like they’re losing more players and coaches than you’d expect….they’ve lost a lot of their most talented guys…the easiest way to look at it is that they are running the same offense and basically the same defense that had at Appalachian State, (from where Satterfield came) but now they are playing teams with equal or better talent, which almost never happened there.” Could that be Dino’s problem?
Offense: 29.5 points (55th) 444.2 yards (29th) 200.0 rushing (29th) 244.2 passing (48th) per game
Defense: 26.6 points (49th) 369.1 yards (39th) 179.9 rushing (80th) 189.2 passing (17th) per game
Turnovers -12 (119th) Average Field Position: 26.5 – 33.6 = -7.1 (118th)
Phil Steele‘s PS # add up to just 2,717 better than our 3,613.
Saturday 11/20 TBA at NORTH CAROLINA STATE TV: TBA
Ah, the Wolfpack. We’ve gotten plenty of teeth marks over the years from this bunch: Syracuse vs North Carolina State 1869-2020
(they haven’t yet added in 2020, when we lost to them 29-36)
The thing is, since the schools first played in 1972, State has won 55% of their games and the Cuse has won 50%. That suggests a close series, but it’s been anything but. Last year they went 8-4 and will likely be even better this year.
They have their top three running backs and four of their top five receivers back as well as one of the tow quarterbacks they used and the brother of a former star to back him up. Their scoring output jumped 8 points a game, (to that magic 30ppg mark) last year under new OC Tim Beck and that’s what he accomplished with no spring practice and limited practices in the fall, as well as no weak non-conference opponents to pad the stats. QB Bailey Hockman is gone but Devin Leary (60%, 8.1per attempt and 8TD/2int) is back after season-ending injury in the fifth game. He’ll battle for the position with Ben Finlay, Ryan’s brother. They will be throwing to Emeka Emezie (47/738/5), Thayer Thomas (42/529/6, Devin Carter (29/477/7) and Porter Brooks (24/276/0) and handing off to Bam Knight (143/788/10), Rickey Person (147/643/4) and Jordan Houston (42/143/3). Left tackle Ikem Ekwonu will be starting for the third year in a row “and has quickly developed in to one of the best run blockers in the conference”, (Athlon) The other tackle, Tyrone Riley, will be playing his SEVENTH year for the Wolfpack due to redshirts, injuries, Covid, etc. Talk about a graybeard!
Their defense was good against the pass with 32 sacks and 10 interceptions. Their run defense gave up 4.3 per carry. Virginia Tech, (314) and North Carolina (326) had big games, as did Kentucky (288) in the bowl game. Their strength is in their linebackers: Drake Thomas, Isaiah Moore and Payton Wilson, who only played in 10 games but had 108 tackles and was all-conference. But he’s coming off surgeries on both shoulders. They also run a 3-3-5 so those line backers are key. They lost 2/3 of the D-line and 3/5 of the secondary. Their kicking game is as good as anybody’s. Christopher Dunn is 56 of 67 on field goals, including a 53 yarder and he’s made all 122 PATs. Trenton Gil has averaged a whopping 46.3 yards per punt in his career.
Lindy’s reports “expectations could be soaring by 2021 kickoff” and Athlon says that this could “push for double-digit wins for only the second time in school history….if the run defense can tighten up”. In the revamped schedule, they got to play 6 Coastal teams vs. 4 Atlantic teams and didn’t play Clemson or Notre Dame, although they were the one team that beat Liberty. Those mean nameless coaches said “They surprised a lot of folks but it might have been a dead-cat bounce last year.”
Definition: Dead cat bounce - Wikipedia
They’ll beat the bad teams and lose to the good ones.” (We need to become a good one by game #11). “QB Devin Leary is a good player….the downside is that you need more talent around him….defensively, they’re below average when you break it down by unit…they had to score in bunches to beat you.”
Offense: 30.2 points (48th) 385.3 yards (74th) 122.5 rushing (107th) 262.8 passing (36th) per game
Defense: 29.2 points (62nd) 415.0 yards (71st) 173.9 rushing (75th) 241.1 passing (78th) per game
Turnovers -6 (97th) Average Field Position: 29.7 – 28.5 = +1.2 (153rd)
Phil Steele‘s PS # add up to just 1,776, much better than our 3,613.
Saturday 11/27 TBA in the Dome vs. PITTSBURGH TV: TBA
The series between these two perennial recruiting rivals had been like a pro wresting match with alternate periods of dominance: SU won 11 of 16 from 1957-72, then lost 11 in a row, then won 16 of 18 with 1 tie, (our last) and since 2002, we are 3-17:
(Again, we are missing 2020, where we lost 10-21). We won’t really be back until we turn this series around and start beating these guys again.
Like Boston College, we are used to the Panthers running the ball down our throats but they have changed their approach under OC Mark Whipple. They had the #111 rushing attack in FBS last year but were #39 in passing. QB Kenny Pickett decided to use his extra Covid year . Last season he was 61% for 2,408 yards, (7.3 per attempt) for 13TDs, (which seems a little low for the #39 passing attack) and 9 interceptions. Jordan Addison (60/666/4) is back as his main target, (just 11.1 per catch). The freshman had 10 drops so he’ll be working to be more consistent. Shocky Jacques-Louis, (26/327/0) and Taysir Mack (23/305/2) are also back. (Shocky and Taysir?) Vincent Davis gained 632 yards on 143 carries and 6 scores. He got 247 yards of that in the finale against Georgia Tech. If he can’t maintain that level, it could create an opening for highly regarded Israel Abanikanda. The line lost All-ACC center Jimmy Morrisey but has tackles Curtis Warren and Gabe Houry, guards Jake Kradel and Blake Zubovic and Maryland transfer Marcus Minor, who have 43 starts between them.
The Panther defense roared to #3 nationally against the run and #20 overall with 111 TFLs and 46 sacks. They lost 5 starters from that defense, including ¾ of the defensive line and both safeties. The defensive ends, Patrick Jones and Rashad Weaver were both All-Americans. Chief back-up Deslin Alexandre had 6.5 of those TFLs, 3 sacks and a fumble recovery. The linebackers are all back: Cam Bright, Chase Pine and Phil Campbell and leading back-up SirVocea Dennis, (from CBA), who totaled 30TFLs and 15.5 sacks. “Damar Hamlin, Jason Pinnock and Paris Ford are off to the NFL but safety Brandon Hill and corners Marquis Williams and Damarri Mathis are all capable of being All-ACC players.” (Lindy’s) Troublesome, (to SU) Alex Kressman is gone. Punter Kirk Christodoulou averaged 44.7.
They’ve been in a rut of having at least 5 losses in 11 consecutive years. (We’ve had at least 5 losses in 20 of the last 22 years). Coach Pat Narduzzi has said “I want to win a championship here”. But Athlon “expects Pittsburgh to stay on trend in 2021.” Those opposing coaches: “They’re consistently inconsistent” (They are consistent against us.) “You expect them to be predictable but play hard. They’re not going to scheme you to death but they’re always really sound. This is the team in our league that wins one game they have no business winning loses three they shouldn’t.” (Is that ‘sound’) “They have a talented quarterback they don’t seem to know what to do with. Their passing game is bad and it shouldn’t be. They got away from the run game and it hurt them. They don’t know what they want to be on offense, or maybe it’s just too many ideas….They had some really nice players on the defensive end and in the secondary that they’re losing and it’s going to be a regression year replacing those guys because this is not a program that recruits particularly well.”
Offense: 29.0 points (58th) 379.6 yards (79th) 119.9 rushing (111th) 259.7 passing (39th) per game
Defense: 24.5 points (37th) 339.5 yards (20th) 93.5 rushing (3rd) 246.0 passing (85th) per game
Turnovers +4 (38th) Average Field Position: 31.6 – 29.3 = +2.3 (42nd)
Phil Steele‘s PS # add up to just 3,110, better than our 3,613.
I will say that, coming off that 1-10 year, only the Albany game seems like an obvious win. It’s easy to imagine everyone else beating us. But I think we were probably a 4-5 win team when fully healthy and playing a full schedule that went 1-10 because of Covid, injuries and the revamped schedule. We could jump up to that level if only because it’s 20201, not 2020, when everything went wrong. We need to be a bit better than that.
I think we’re better than Ohio and will get Rutgers at home. We’ve got a shot at being 3-0 going into the Liberty game and will have a revenge motive there. I had assumed that Florida State would make a quick comeback and return to their normal status as a national power. I no longer think that. They may become what Miami has been since the early 2000’s: a former power spinning it’s wheels. Wake Forest has become a solid program and a rival: we are both trying to climb the standings and have had some memorable games against each other. That will continue. Clemson is Clemson but I’m not sure they will be quite on the level of their national championship teams. We compete well against them but have a hard time doing it for four quarters. But we’ve got them here and another big upset is not impossible. Virginia Tech isn’t the team we used to have a great rivalry with in the Big East days. They might be headed for some down years. Louisville seems to be slipping a bit but they keep rolling over us. NC State looks dangerous and they always are to us. Both Boston College and Pitt are transitioning from a playing style that might have been more appropriate to them than what they are trying to do but have very good quarterbacks to try to make it work.
As I said at the beginning, I don’t look at the schedule ahead of time and see wins and losses. All I know is that we need a winning season to wipe out the bad taste of what’s happened the last two years. We have a lot of good young talent as the residue or the 10-3 season, when the recruiting of those players began. If we can’t get this thing turned around quickly, there will be a recruiting class that is the legacy of the 1-10 in another year or two. I think this team is good enough to get that winning season that we need – this year. If they can’t do it, that’s likely to get harder.