SWC75
Bored Historian
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THE OPPOSITON
The information at the top of each section is the date, the opponent with “vs.” if it’s in the Carrier Dome and “at” if it isn’t, and the limited info about who is carrying the game on TV. ACC Network Extra is online video that should be available through “Watch ESPN”. Brent Axe did an article on this a year ago that will presumably be redone this year:
How to find ACC Network Extra (Watch league games online)
Whether there will be any changes this year, I don’t know at this time.
Some comparisons for the stats:
Here is an average team statistically in 2016, (I picked the 64th of 128 teams in each stat):
Points: Offense- 29.2 Defense: 28.0 (You’ve got to score 30 points to win most games these days)
Rushing yards: O: 171.8 D: 172.2
Passing Yards: O: 234.0 D: 227.4
Total Yards: O: 414.7 D: 408.2
Turnover Margin: 0
The averages for our opponents and their average ranking:
Points: Offense- 31.4 (55th) Defense: 25.6 (50th)
Rushing yards: O: 172.9 (70th) D: 135.0 (35th)
Passing Yards: O: 251.1 (49th) D: 229.8 (62nd)
Total Yards: O: 424.00 (56th) D: 364.9 (40th)
Turnover Margin: +1 (61st)
Syracuse’s numbers and national rankings from last year:
Points: Offense- 25.7 (90th) Defense: 38.6 (120th of 128 teams in FBS)
Rushing yards: O: 119.6 (115th) D: 225.0 (108th)
Passing Yards: O: 321.3 (11th) D: 276.1 (118th)
Total Yards: O: 440.8 (42nd) D: 501.1 (122nd)
Turnover Margin: -1 (75th)
By comparison, here are the same numbers from Scott Shafer’s last year:
Points: Offense- 27.3 (77th) Defense: 31.0 (90th)
Rushing yards: O: 163.2 (77th) D: 181.8 (78th)
Passing Yards: O: 156.8 (116th) D: 256.7 (100th)
Total Yards: O: 319.9 (118th) D: 438.5 (98th)
Turnover Margin: +5 (32nd)
Friday, September 1st, 2017 vs. Central Connecticut State ACC Network Extra
This is the one game all year where we will be clear favorites. We need to win it and win it easily and even if we do that, it will be as meaningless as last year’s 33-7 opening win over Colgate. Colgate was a 5-5 FCS team last year while CCU was 2-9. They beat Bowie State by 9 points and Sacred Heart by 2 while losing the rest of their games by 149 points. We won’t score that much on them but this figures to resemble our 47-0 victory over Rhode Island two years ago, (which began a 4-8 campaign), the 54-0 win over Wagner in 2013, (we went 7-6 that year). Those scores were essentially “fake news”. The only real news that could come out of this one is if we struggled. In this case, I prefer the fake news.
These Blue Devils can pass the ball: QB Jacob Dolegala led their league with 2,934 passing yards. Joey Fields caught 46 passes for 732 yards and Jose Garcia caught 34 for 413 yards. Running back Cameron Nash ran for 632 yards but I suspect he won’t be much of a factor and they will be behind most of the game. They have a good linebacker in 6-2 235 senior Randall Laguerre. It won’t be enough.
Stats
Points: Offense- 22.3 (88th) Defense: 34.8 (104th of 122 teams in FCS)
Rushing yards: O: 91.4 (115th) D: 153.0 (108th)
Passing Yards: O: 267.2 (19th) D: 251.1 (96th)
Total Yards: O: 358.5 (80th) D: 404.1 (75th)
Turnover Margin: -7 (101st)
Saturday, September 9, 2017 vs. Middle Tennessee State ACC Network Extra
It would seem ideal to open the season with three home games against “directional” teams. That seems an invitation to go 3-0, except that we don’t do 3-0 well here. We actually did it two years ago- and wound up 4-8. The last time before that was 1991, when we (and Coach P) started 4-0. Then you go back to 1987, then 1975, then 1967, then 1960, then 1959. And that’s it for the post-war era. The rest of the times we’ve always had an early loss that’s thrown us off schedule – or found out we were so bad we didn’t have a schedule.
Syracuse might well be an underdog in this game anyway. The Blue Raiders, (will these blue teams make us blue?), might win Conference USA this year. They were 8-5 last year and this is the first of 11 teams in a row we will play who went to bowl games last year. Their quarterback, Brent Stockstill, (son of head coach Rick Stockstill) passed for 3,223 yards and 31TDs vs. 7 interceptions He completed 63% of his passes. He also ran for 240 yards at 5.3 a crack. He’s a solidly built 6-0 223. He underwent shoulder surgery in February but was “showing no ill effects” when camp began. Ty Lee had 63 receptions for 699 yards. The next highest returnee had 28 but they used a lot of receivers last year and have good depth there. They lost a first class running back in l’Tavius Mathers, who rushed for 1,581 yards. They have only two starters returning to the offensive line. But this team averaged 40 points a game last year and won a 77-56 game. We broke that combined scoring record with Pitt when we lost to them 61-76, so this could be quite a shoot-out.
But the biggest intrigue comes from the fact that MTS hired Dino Babers predecessor, Scott Shafer as their defensive coordinator. I know of no instance in which a former Syracuse head coach faced his successor since Ben Schwartzwalder played Biggie Munn’s Michigan State team in 1952. Biggie had been an Ossie Solem assistant and was head coach at SU in 1946 before he got a better deal at Michigan State. We lost that one 7-48. But in this case, Shafer is a defensive specialist and Babers an offensive specialist and Shafer’s defense will go up against Baber’s offense, (Babers even likes to call his own plays. That alone will make this the most intriguing game of the year. Shafer has 6 starters back to work with but lost their top 5 defensive linemen. They get a top transfer in defensive end Walter Brady from Missouri, who was one of the top freshmen in the country as a Tiger. Per Lindy’s, “The hope is that a more aggressive style will pay dividends.” Shafer will “bring the house” to “our house.”
MTS’s numbers from last year:
Points: Offense- 39.7 (12th) Defense: 35.8 (120th of 128 teams in FBS)
Rushing yards: O: 191.8 (48th) D: 198.7 (85th)
Passing Yards: O: 325.8 (8th) D: 250.8 (95th)
Total Yards: O: 517.7 (8th) D: 449.5 (96th)
Turnover Margin: -2 (78th)
Saturday, September 16, 2017 vs. Central Michigan ACC Network Extra
Central Michigan played us tough two years ago- too tough. One player saw Eric Dungey’s pass sail past his head, lowered himself and, forearms out, hit him under the chin and into the helmet with a 5 yard running start, knocking Eric’s head back as if he’d absorbed a Mike Tyson left hook. He was also tackled from behind and was falling forward. When on the ground, semi-conscious at best, the guy who brought him down from behind grabbed Eric’s foot and began twisting it violently. It seemed obvious to me that this was a “take out play”, likely ordered from the bench to get our quarterback out of the game. I think SU should have demanded an investigation and some kind of punishment for the players and coaches involved beyond what was called in the game and threatened to cancel this game if there was no compliance. But nothing further was done and the Chippewas will be back in the Dome. And they’ll have the same coach and defensive coordinator, John Bonamego and Greg Colby. Mitch Stanitzek, the lineman who made the big hit is back, although Nathan Ricketts, the linebacker who did the foot-twisting has graduated.
We won that game 30-27. CMU was 7-6 that year and 6-7 last year. They lose their star QB, Cooper Rush but return a lot of defensive stand-outs. Rush may be replaced by a Michigan transfer, Shane Morris, who started a bowl game for the Wolverines in 2013 as a true freshman. Whoever wins the QB job will have some excellent receivers to throw to: Corey Willis caught 72 balls for 1,091 yards and 9 scores. Mark Chapman had 44 catches and Tyler Conklin had 42. Running back Devon Spalding ran for 758 yards at 5.5 per carry and all 5 interior linemen are back.
But “Defense appears to the Chippewa’s strength,” per Lindys. They have five seniors and four other starters returning. Linebacker Malik fountain led with 91 tackles. “He is a run-stuffer”. Tackle Joe Ostman “anchors the line” and had 69 tackles. Cornerback Amari Coleman had 15 pass break-ups and 4 picks. All were all-conference.
If we are on either a high or a low after the MTS game, this could prove to be a difficult game to get back on track in.
Their numbers:
Points: Offense- 26.3 (83rd) Defense: 30.3 (79th)
Rushing yards: O: 115.9 (120th) D: 169.0 (61st)
Passing Yards: O: 276.1 (26th) D: 222.9 (60th)
Total Yards: O: 392.0 (78th) D: 391.9 (54th)
Turnover Margin: -6 (104th)
Saturday, September 23, 2017 at Louisiana State TBA
The schedule breaks neatly in two groups of teams: the “winnables”, 6 teams we should or at least have a decent chance of beating and what I call the “spiders”, the teams for we are likely to be a fly, caught in their web: teams we are highly unlikely to beat.
Giant Garden Spider vs Giant Horse Fly
Last year the trend in our best opponents was dynamic, double-threat quarterbacks. This year it’s venomous defenses that are a brick wall at the line of scrimmage and attack the backfield, breaking up plays, (and players) and forcing turnovers. That’s the way LSU plays defense and we’d better get used to it. Last year the Tigers were 5th in FCS in scoring defense and 10th in total defense. They’ve lost a bunch of good players from that defense and their best defender, (12 sacks), Arden Key, a 6-6 238 DE/LB, may not be ready to play after June shoulder surgery. (Let’s assume he’ll get well just in time to play us.) They get back 6-5 301 end Christian LaCouture back after he missed last season with a torn ACL. 6-4 305 Fred Herron “has the potential to excel” per Lindy’s. 6-4 308 Greg Gilmore is “the prototypical nose tackle.” 6-3 301 tackle Rashad Lawrence is “one of the most productive playmakers up front”, per Street and Smiths. Redshirt freshman LB Ray Thornton “has great potential. Their middle LB, Devin White, is 255 pounds. Their 7th ranked recruiting class includes 5 star Jacoby Stevens, rated the best safety prospect in the country , 4 star safety Grant Delpit, 4 star nickel back Todd Harris and 4 star cornerback Kary Vincent Jr. We get excited if we get a 3 star guy to come to Syracuse.
Ed Orgeron noted that Les Miles was let go because of his refusal to get away from his grind-it-out approach so Ed went out and got a new offensive co-ordinator, Pittsburgh’s Matt Canada, who directed that offense that scored 76 points on us. He’ll get to work with 6-1 215 QB Danny Etling who replaced injured and now departed Brandon Harris to complete 160 of 269 passes (59%) for 2,123 yards 11TDs and 5 int. He had streaks of 101 and 93 passes in a row without interceptions. DJ Clark had only 26 catches last year but they were for 466 yards (17.9). Leonard Fournette is gone but he was gone early last year and was replaced by 5-11 212 Derrius Guice, “a great blend of speed and strength” who rushed for 1,387 yards and 15 scores and might be the best tailback in the country this year. He ran for 7 TDs of 40 yards or more. He’s backed up by 6- 233 Darrel Williams, whom Orgeron describes as “a bull”.
Once upon a time we were good enough to beat LSU. Maybe that time will come again. But not this year.
The stats:
Points: Offense- 28.3 (68th) Defense: 15.8 (5th)
Rushing yards: O: 233.0 (21st) D: 117.3 (13th)
Passing Yards: O: 190.1 (101st) D: 197.2 (23rd)
Total Yards: O: 423.1 (59th) D: 314.4 (10th)
Turnover Margin: 0 (67th)
Saturday, September 30, 2017 at North Carolina State TBA
We are 1-8 all-time vs. the Wolfpack. Here are the scores: 20-43, 22-28, 31-32, 17-38, 24-10, 17-24 and 29-42. It’s never mattered how good we are or how good they were, except in Scott Shafer’s first year when injuries and crippled their offense and we had a real good defense and beat them down there in Coach Dave Doeren’s first year. He’s still there and Shafer is gone. This year they will be very good. They are expecting the kind of breakthrough we hope to have someday.
Nunes on their defensive line: “Seniors Bradley Chubb and Kentavious Street should terrify on the edges, while B.J. Hill and Justin Jones are among the country’s best run stoppers inside.” The 6-4 275 Chubb turned down the NFL to come back for his senior year and will likely be a first round pick in the next draft. He had 22 tackles for a loss, (TFL) and 10.5 sacks. Linebackers Jerod Fernandez (88T), and Airius Moore (86T, 13.5TFL) are dynamic but Doeren “is hoping for another step of improvement” from them. Safety Shawn Boone had 67 tackles. (Late Update: Moore is one of several players who have been dismissed or suspended by the coach for being involved in a sexual assault case. Moore was just suspended but we don’t know for how long: this will be the 5th game of the year for both teams.)
QB Ryan Finley passed for 3,059 yards, 18TDs and 8int. Jaylen Samuels is a “hybrid fullback/tight end” caught 7TD passes and ran for 6 more. They have to replace a 1,000 yard rusher in Matt Dayes. Hey have 4 starters back in the offensive line. They had problems kicking field goals last year, missing 8 of 17. But I doubt it will come to that.
The stats:
Points: Offense- 27.0 (75th) Defense: 22.8 (27th)
Rushing yards: O: 156.2 (86th) D: 108.6 (8th)
Passing Yards: O: 260.2 (38th) D: 244.2 (82th)
Total Yards: O: 416.4 (63rd) D: 352.8 (24th)
Turnover Margin: +2 (49th)
Saturday, October 7, 2017 vs. Pittsburgh TBA
That 61-76 embarrassment last year was Pitt’s 12th victory in their last 14 games against SU. The history of the series is that both teams are rarely good at the same time and one usually dominates the other for an extended period. We beat Pitt 11 times in 16 years from 1957-1972. They beat us 11 times in a row after that. Then we beat them 16 times in 18 years with one tie. Then came the current streak. The reason for this is simple: both schools recruit in the same areas and go after the same players. When we win those battles, we win the games. When they win them, they win the games. I thought we were going to turn this series back in our favor when the Panthers had their semi-comical coaching carousel a few years ago but then Doug Marrone bolted and we were starting over ourselves. If Dino Babers is to be successful, he’s got to start beating Pitt, both for recruits and on the scoreboard.
Head Coach Pat Narduzzi lost both his offensive coordinator, (to LSU) and his QB. He’s brought in USC grad transfer Max Browne. They also lost their big running back, James Connor, but still have Qadree Ollison, who gained 1,000 yards two years ago. They have two top receivers, Quadree Henderson who had over 2,000 all-purpose yards and Jester Weah, who averaged 24 yards per catch. (Jester Weah?!?) They are rebuilding the offensive line. “Henderson is arguably the best return man in the country”, per Lindy’s. (They need to figure out how to spell Qadry.)
All ACC safety Jordan Whitehead was kind of lost in the maelstrom around him and Pitt was 127th in the country in pass defense, giving up 333 yards per game. Lindys: “Narduzzi is a defensive-minded coach but the defense has not been good since his arrival. This has had more to do with personnel than scheme and he addressed that deficiency in recruiting. Narduzzi’s first three recruiting classes were loaded with defensive players and athletes who are now showing up on the depth chart.” They lost Ejuan Price, “one of the most disruptive forces in college football”, (13 sacks, 23TFL), and aren’t likely to find another like that for a while. The linebacker corps lost 3 seniors. So any defensive improvements will have to come from Narduzzi’s recruits.
Pitt seems vulnerable this year and we’ve got them at home. If we can’t win this one, their dominance in the series may continue for a while longer.
The stats:
Points: Offense- 40.9 (10th) Defense: 35.2 (106th)
Rushing yards: O: 225.1 (28th) D: 119.6 (16th)
Passing Yards: O: 221.7 (76th) D: 333.2 (127th)
Total Yards: O: 446.8 (38th) D: 452.8 (101st)
Turnover Margin: +1 (58th)
Friday, October 13, 2017 vs. Clemson ESPN
It’s hard to know what to make of this series. I know Clemson is the defending national champions and we aren’t but since SU joined the ACC, we’ve lost to them by 35 points at home; lost a defensive duel at their place, 9-19, (DeShaun Watson was injured), lost a shoot-out in our place 27-37, (with Zach Mahoney filling in for Dungey) and been steam rolled 0-54 in their place by a Tiger team that wasn’t even playing that well at the time, (their loss to Pittsburgh was the following week). I suspect the 10 point games are more deceiving than the blow-outs but they still suggest that we should do better than losing 35 or 54 points. What they suggest for this year is unknown. We are still early in Baber’s rebuilding program. Clemson is reloading. They rebuild with players we wish we had. This could be 2017’s version of last year’s Virginia Tech upset, but I doubt it.
They lost all-time great QB DeShaun Watson, 1,000 rusher Wayne Gellman, 1,000 yard receiver Mike Williams, slot receiver Artavis Scott and tight end Jordan Leggett. Back-up Kelly Bryant will try to replace Watson- and try to hold off 5 star freshman Hunter Johnson. He may be the next star QB after Watson and Taj Boyd. Tavien Feaster, CJ Fuller and Adam Choice will try to replace Gallman. Feaster averaged 6.0 last year in mop-up duty. 4/5 of the line comes back. They use plenty of receivers so returnees Dane Cain, Ray-Ray McCloud, (has he met Kirby Dar Dar?) and Hunter Renfrow all had more than 30 catches. Renfrow caught the title winner vs. Alabama. SI: “They don’t have one guy that has 90 catches and everybody else is at 20 or something like that. It’s spread out.” That’s what I’d like to see this year from SU.
At the center of the defensive line is man-mountain Dexter Lawrence, 6-5 340. Our running game will go right into his arms- or those of 6-4 310 Christian Wilkins right next to him. Emotional leader Ben Bouleware graduated but the other linebackers return, including Kendall Joseph, who had 124 tackles. They did lose half the secondary. But Lindy’s said it is “three deep on each side at corner”. We’ll beat Clemson someday but right now they look a little too muscular.
Lawrence and Wilkins Named Associated Press Preseason All-Americans
The stats:
Points: Offense- 39.2 (14th) Defense: 18.0 (10th)
Rushing yards: O: 169.7 (71th) D: 129.6 (24th)
Passing Yards: O: 333.9 (7th) D: 181.9 (14th)
Total Yards: O: 503.7 (12th) D: 311.5 (8th)
Turnover Margin: -1 (71th)
Saturday, October 21, 2017 at University of Miami TBA
The great programs have reasons why they are great. They have their ups and downs but they always come back because the reasons they were great before are still there. Oklahoma was mediocre in the 90’s but won the 2000 national championship and appeared in two other title games after that. Southern California fell from greatness in the 80’s and 90’s but became the dominant program of the 2000’s. Alabama had all kinds of problems in the 2000’s until Nick Saban was hired. They have become the dominant program of the current decade. The dominant program of the 1980’s was Miami. After some troubles with probation, they had a sequel in the early 2000’s. Then they faded again and everybody has been waiting for them to come back, especially the ACC who though they were getting a superpower when they persuaded the Hurricanes to leave the Big East. Amazingly, the Hurricanes have never played in an ACC championship game. But they still exist in an area that produces busloads of top talent and Mark Richt, formerly the successful coach at Georgia and a Miami alum seems to be building the program toward another peak.
One of Richt’s units is ahead of the other. Guess which one? An opposing coach in SI: “Miami’s linebackers can run. They play sideline to sideline and they’re physical. It’s good combination and to see those guys play at the level they did, as young as they were was (a) impressive and (B) scary…I felt like their D-ends were as good against the run and could move. They’re big and physical inside.” Linebackers Shaquille Quarterman and Michael Pinckney and DE Joe Jackson were freshman All-Americans. Lindy’s: “Senior defensive end Chad Thomas, a former 5 star recruit, is poised to star.” Two time FCS AA cornerback Dee Delany is a grad transfer. SI: “He has the size, athleticism and instincts to lock down wide receivers and make quarterbacks pay throwing the ball in his direction.”
The questions are on offense. But there are answers, too. They are looking for a new quarterback with no clear leader. But, per Street and Smith’s, “There isn’t a team in the Coastal Division with better ‘knowns’ at the skill positons.” Mark Walton rushed for 1,117 yards and scored 14 times, Wideout Ahmmon Richards “broke Michael Irvin’s program record for a freshman with a team high 934 yards”, on 49 catches (19.1) but only 3 TDs. He’ll get more this year. SI: “Senior wide receiver Braxton Berrios has talent and he can make plays. He has the ability to be explosive in space.” Freshman wide-out DeeJay Dallas is also “a terrific kick returner”. They have only two starters back in the line but LSU transfer George Brown Jr. will help and freshman Navaughn Donaldson was a top recruit.
The Hurricanes opened with four one-died wins last year, then lost four games, three of them by a total of 11 points, before finishing with 5 straight one-sided wins, including a 31-14 clobbering of West Virginia in the Russell Athletic Bowl. It wouldn’t take much to make them a Top 10 or even a Top 5 team.
The stats:
Points: Offense- 34.3 (37th) Defense: 18.5 (12th)
Rushing yards: O: 151.8 (93th) D: 131.8 (26th)
Passing Yards: O: 274.2 (27th) D: 213.8 (47th)
Total Yards: O: 425.9 (57th) D: 345.5 (20th)
Turnover Margin: +9 (14th)
Saturday, November 4, 2017 at Florida State TBA
Nunes says: “Syracuse probably falls by three or four touchdowns, at least. Take solace in the fact that Florida State is probably the best team in the country… That talent, even more than the offense, is concentrated on the defensive side of the football, where Florida State returns a ton from last year’s strong group. Sack leader DeMarcus Walker departs, but just about everyone else is back. Same goes for the list of leading tacklers on the ‘Noles last season: beyond Walker there’s major returning talent in most spots. Tarvarus McFadden and Derwin James (both in the secondary) are All-America contenders.” SI reports “The last couple of years, they’ve recruited some leaner pass rushers. Those ends, 6-5 250 Josh Sweat and Brian Burns, 6-5 218, are a little bit quicker off the ball….their secondary and defensive line are as good as ever.” (Our ends are pretty lean. So are our means.)
Their QB, the talented Deondre Francois, had a rough but productive freshman year. Offensive line problems resulted in 38 sacks. But the 6-1 205 Francois took that beating and completed 58.78% of his passes for 3,350 yards and 20 scores vs. 7 interceptions he also rushed for a net 198 yards. With star runner Dalvin Cook gone and a hopefully improved line, Francois will become the focal point of the offense and should have a big year. Cook, will likely be replaced, naturally, by a 5 star recruit named Cam Akers who, per SI “can give them some of what Cook gave them” or junior Jacques Patrick, who averaged 5.7 yards per carry backing up Cook. Among the receivers, “Audrey Tate emerged as a red zone threat last season” and Nyqwan Murray (5-11 176) “can fly”. The one weakness may continue to be the offensive line, which used 9 different starters last year and lost the best one, two time AA Roderick Johnson, to the pros. I have a feeling that may hold them back from their national title aspirations. An opening date with Alabama, who loves to feast on ‘name’ programs in early season games, (ask USC who lost to them 6-52 in last year’s opener), may do the same thing.
The stats:
Points: Offense- 35.1 (31st) Defense: 25.0 (44th)
Rushing yards: O: 202.3 (40th) D: 126.0 (21st)
Passing Yards: O: 264.1 (33rd) D: 221.1 (57th)
Total Yards: O: 466.4(25th) D: 349.1 (22nd)
Turnover Margin: +3 (43rd)
Saturday, November 11, 2017 vs. Wake Forest TBA
The good news: 2 of the last three games are in the “winnable” column. The questions are: will it matter anymore by the time we get to there? Also: what kind of a team will he have at that point: a matured team playing with a high level of confidence or a discouraged, injured team just playing out the string – again? Also: just how winnable are these games? Both Wake Forest and Boston College had winning records and won bowl games last year while we went 4-8 – and lost to Wake by 19 points.
Wake and NC State have a couple of things in common: two coaches named Dave who started their rebuilding projects before Dino Babers got here and are thus farther along than Babers is. Dave Clawson, (who preceded Babers at Bowling Green): “This will be the first time in our time here that the amount of seniors and juniors in the two-deep outnumbers the amount of freshmen and sophomores. And so what you’re seeing is all the benefits of the redshirting we’ve been doing, in that we have a lot of fourth year juniors, third year sophomores.” They have three year starters back on the offensive line and the tight end is senior Cam Serigne, (6-3, 245), who has 130 career catches despite a perennially unsettled QB situation. They had three 500 yard rushers last year for the first time since 1971 and two of them are back: Matt Colbun (626 yards) and Cade Carney (589). John Wolford, now a senior, continues to be the primary quarterback candidate after passing for 1,774 yards and 9 scores and running for 521 yards and 5 scores last year. Tabari Hines is the leading receiver with 38 catches for 447 yards. They return 97% of their offensive production, the highest percentage in the country.
The Deacs had 41 sacks and forced 27 turnovers last year. 6-4 275 Duke Ejiofor, who had 10.5 of those sacks will be back at defensive end. Safety Jesse Bates “was an immediate hit” as a freshman with 5 interceptions, two for touchdowns. He also led the ACC with 70 solo tackles. Mike Weaver was named the best place-kicker in the ACC last year and punter Dom Maggio was a freshman AA with a 42.0 average.
Despite some improvement, Wake Forest was far from an offensive juggernaut last year. This game won’t be played outdoors during a hurricane. It will take place inside the Dome, a perfect place for a high powered passing attack, which Wake does not have.
The stats:
Points: Offense- 20.4 (118th) Defense: 22.2 (23rd)
Rushing yards: O: 145.8 (101st) D: 142.4 (33rd)
Passing Yards: O: 165.7 (113th) D: 228.2 (66th)
Total Yards: O: 311.5(124th) D: 370.5 (41th)
Turnover Margin: +8 (18th)
Saturday, November 18, 2017 at Louisville TBA
This is the last of the “spider” teams. The Cardinals looked like they were going to score 100 points on us last year. Heck, Lamar Jackson looked like he was going to score 100 points by himself! We were shocked when they did that to us, (28-62), but the country was shocked when they did it to Florida State the next week, (63-20). That made Lamar Jackson the front-runner for the Heisman Trophy he eventually got. Louisville seemed unstoppable but they came up just short in a titanic 36-42 battle at Clemson. They were still in the hunt for a playoff spot until they shockingly got undressed by Houston 10-36 in their second to last game. They then got upset by geographical rival Kentucky 38-41. LSU then handled them 29-9 in the Citrus Bowl. So the Cardinals have a 3 game losing streak.
They still have Jackson so they are dangerous as a firecracker. I’m not sure he’s an NFL caliber passer: he only completed 56.2% of his passes last year. But he gained 3,543 yards and threw for 30TDs vs. 9 Int. What he’s really special at is running the ball and that may be his future in the pros. He carried the ball 260 times for 1,571 yards and 21TDs, giving him 5,114 total yards, (393 per game) and 51TDs accounted for. He’s 6-3 200 with great moves and great speed. But he lost most of his other playmakers: their tailback, their top two wide-outs and the tight end. They have three offensive linemen back but Lindy’s asks “How much does experience help if the experience wasn’t all that great?” Even with a QB as mobile as Jackson, the line gave up 47 sacks last year, although sometimes a great running QB will run himself into sacks.
SI quoted an opposing coach on their defense: “They were the best defense we played last year. Very talented, very aggressive: sometimes overly aggressive. Last year we tried to throw a lot to the perimeter to get it out of our quarterback’s hands early. Their DBs are big-time athletes.” Cornerback Jamar Alexander “is a great cover guy with great feet. He’s the best corner we saw last year.” They lose some people up front but Trevor Young (6-4 255) returns to DE after missing a year due to injury. He had 8.5 sacks two years ago and the linebacker behind him, James Hearns (6-3 249) had 8 sacks last year.
Their place-kicker, Blanton Creque, had better numbers last year than Wake’s Mike Weaver, (16/19FG vs. 21/27 but he missed one of 40PATs), and their punter, Mason king ,averaged 43.8 yards a kick. Jaire Alexandre is a “dynamic kick returner” and returned a punt for a TD last year.
One item of concern: is a comment by that coach quoted in SI: Coach Bobby “Petrino calls the plays and he’d good but when adversity hits, he hurts that team. He’ll add to the problem because he’ll scream at the kids and their heads will go down.“ That may explain why they were such a different team in those last three games last year than the one SU played early. We play then in their place but we get them late this year. If the players have again tuned out the coach, that could be to our advantage in this one. SU fans are probably thinking that Clemson is the most liked big upset we could pull off this because it will in the Dome. But we might actually have a better chance at Louisville is they have a late fade as they did last year.
The stats:
Points: Offense- 42.5 (6th) Defense: 23.8 (31st)
Rushing yards: O: 242.2 (13th) D: 115.2 (12th)
Passing Yards: O: 290.5 (23th) D: 207.1 (37th)
Total Yards: O: 532.7 (3rd) D: 322.2 (14th)
Turnover Margin: -7 (107th)
Saturday, November 25, 2017 vs. Boston College TBA
When the Eagles get it done- if they get it done- they get it done on defense. Two years ago, they led the nation in total defense and were 4th in scoring defense – and went 3-9 becasue they were 125th in total offense and 120th in scoring offense. (Who said “defense” wins games?) . Last year they were almost as good on defense- 9th in yards, 44th in scoring and just as bad on offense- 127th in yards and 118th in points. Somehow they improved to 7-6. But they suffered some horrendous blow-outs: 0-49 to Virginia Tech , 10-56 to Clemson, 7-52 to Louisville and 7-45 to Florida State. They gave up an average of 13.7ppg to everyone else. We didn’t do much better against the last three teams but we did beat the Hokies. And we’ve also beaten the Eagles in both years, 20-17 and 29-20.
6-3 250 Harold Landry may be the best of all the outstanding defensive linemen we will see this year. He led the nation with a Freeney like 16.5 sacks and 22 tackles for a loss. Middle linebacker Connor Strachan had 80 tackles, 2.5 sacks and a forced fumble. Next to him Ty Schwab had 61 tackles, 5.5 for a loss. Safety Will Harris “is a physical presence”, (Lindy’s) and had two picks, as did CB Kamrin Moore.
On offense, the Eagles need a new QB. Former SU target Anthony Brown is in the mix. Jon Hillman “was electric in the Quick Lane Bowl against Maryland” per Lindy’s. Their definition of ‘electric’: 29 carries for 79 yards and 1TD on a 14 yard run. I guess that’s electric for the Quick Lane Bowl. Street and Smiths: “None of the Eagle’s tailbacks or wide-outs managed more than 600 rushing and receiving yards.” Lindy’s: “The offensive line still hasn’t jelled like many had hoped it would under Addazio.”
Like Wake Forest, Boston College would have a hard time keeping up with a fully functional Dino Babers offense in the Dome. But will we have one in our 12th game and against this defense?
The stats:
Points: Offense- 20.4 (118th) Defense: 25.0 (44th)
Rushing yards: O: 149.1 (96th) D: 108.5 (7th)
Passing Yards: O: 143.8 (120th) D: 205.6 34th)
Total Yards: O: 292.8 (127th) D: 314.2 (9th)
Turnover Margin: +7 (24th)
I think it’s likely we lose to all 6 “spiders” and would thus have to go 6-0 against the “winnables” to make a bowl. I think we’ll fall short of that. Another 4-8 season is likely. 5-7 is possible. Anything above that is heavy lifting.
But that’s why they play the games: to find out what actually happens.
The information at the top of each section is the date, the opponent with “vs.” if it’s in the Carrier Dome and “at” if it isn’t, and the limited info about who is carrying the game on TV. ACC Network Extra is online video that should be available through “Watch ESPN”. Brent Axe did an article on this a year ago that will presumably be redone this year:
How to find ACC Network Extra (Watch league games online)
Whether there will be any changes this year, I don’t know at this time.
Some comparisons for the stats:
Here is an average team statistically in 2016, (I picked the 64th of 128 teams in each stat):
Points: Offense- 29.2 Defense: 28.0 (You’ve got to score 30 points to win most games these days)
Rushing yards: O: 171.8 D: 172.2
Passing Yards: O: 234.0 D: 227.4
Total Yards: O: 414.7 D: 408.2
Turnover Margin: 0
The averages for our opponents and their average ranking:
Points: Offense- 31.4 (55th) Defense: 25.6 (50th)
Rushing yards: O: 172.9 (70th) D: 135.0 (35th)
Passing Yards: O: 251.1 (49th) D: 229.8 (62nd)
Total Yards: O: 424.00 (56th) D: 364.9 (40th)
Turnover Margin: +1 (61st)
Syracuse’s numbers and national rankings from last year:
Points: Offense- 25.7 (90th) Defense: 38.6 (120th of 128 teams in FBS)
Rushing yards: O: 119.6 (115th) D: 225.0 (108th)
Passing Yards: O: 321.3 (11th) D: 276.1 (118th)
Total Yards: O: 440.8 (42nd) D: 501.1 (122nd)
Turnover Margin: -1 (75th)
By comparison, here are the same numbers from Scott Shafer’s last year:
Points: Offense- 27.3 (77th) Defense: 31.0 (90th)
Rushing yards: O: 163.2 (77th) D: 181.8 (78th)
Passing Yards: O: 156.8 (116th) D: 256.7 (100th)
Total Yards: O: 319.9 (118th) D: 438.5 (98th)
Turnover Margin: +5 (32nd)
Friday, September 1st, 2017 vs. Central Connecticut State ACC Network Extra
This is the one game all year where we will be clear favorites. We need to win it and win it easily and even if we do that, it will be as meaningless as last year’s 33-7 opening win over Colgate. Colgate was a 5-5 FCS team last year while CCU was 2-9. They beat Bowie State by 9 points and Sacred Heart by 2 while losing the rest of their games by 149 points. We won’t score that much on them but this figures to resemble our 47-0 victory over Rhode Island two years ago, (which began a 4-8 campaign), the 54-0 win over Wagner in 2013, (we went 7-6 that year). Those scores were essentially “fake news”. The only real news that could come out of this one is if we struggled. In this case, I prefer the fake news.
These Blue Devils can pass the ball: QB Jacob Dolegala led their league with 2,934 passing yards. Joey Fields caught 46 passes for 732 yards and Jose Garcia caught 34 for 413 yards. Running back Cameron Nash ran for 632 yards but I suspect he won’t be much of a factor and they will be behind most of the game. They have a good linebacker in 6-2 235 senior Randall Laguerre. It won’t be enough.
Stats
Points: Offense- 22.3 (88th) Defense: 34.8 (104th of 122 teams in FCS)
Rushing yards: O: 91.4 (115th) D: 153.0 (108th)
Passing Yards: O: 267.2 (19th) D: 251.1 (96th)
Total Yards: O: 358.5 (80th) D: 404.1 (75th)
Turnover Margin: -7 (101st)
Saturday, September 9, 2017 vs. Middle Tennessee State ACC Network Extra
It would seem ideal to open the season with three home games against “directional” teams. That seems an invitation to go 3-0, except that we don’t do 3-0 well here. We actually did it two years ago- and wound up 4-8. The last time before that was 1991, when we (and Coach P) started 4-0. Then you go back to 1987, then 1975, then 1967, then 1960, then 1959. And that’s it for the post-war era. The rest of the times we’ve always had an early loss that’s thrown us off schedule – or found out we were so bad we didn’t have a schedule.
Syracuse might well be an underdog in this game anyway. The Blue Raiders, (will these blue teams make us blue?), might win Conference USA this year. They were 8-5 last year and this is the first of 11 teams in a row we will play who went to bowl games last year. Their quarterback, Brent Stockstill, (son of head coach Rick Stockstill) passed for 3,223 yards and 31TDs vs. 7 interceptions He completed 63% of his passes. He also ran for 240 yards at 5.3 a crack. He’s a solidly built 6-0 223. He underwent shoulder surgery in February but was “showing no ill effects” when camp began. Ty Lee had 63 receptions for 699 yards. The next highest returnee had 28 but they used a lot of receivers last year and have good depth there. They lost a first class running back in l’Tavius Mathers, who rushed for 1,581 yards. They have only two starters returning to the offensive line. But this team averaged 40 points a game last year and won a 77-56 game. We broke that combined scoring record with Pitt when we lost to them 61-76, so this could be quite a shoot-out.
But the biggest intrigue comes from the fact that MTS hired Dino Babers predecessor, Scott Shafer as their defensive coordinator. I know of no instance in which a former Syracuse head coach faced his successor since Ben Schwartzwalder played Biggie Munn’s Michigan State team in 1952. Biggie had been an Ossie Solem assistant and was head coach at SU in 1946 before he got a better deal at Michigan State. We lost that one 7-48. But in this case, Shafer is a defensive specialist and Babers an offensive specialist and Shafer’s defense will go up against Baber’s offense, (Babers even likes to call his own plays. That alone will make this the most intriguing game of the year. Shafer has 6 starters back to work with but lost their top 5 defensive linemen. They get a top transfer in defensive end Walter Brady from Missouri, who was one of the top freshmen in the country as a Tiger. Per Lindy’s, “The hope is that a more aggressive style will pay dividends.” Shafer will “bring the house” to “our house.”
MTS’s numbers from last year:
Points: Offense- 39.7 (12th) Defense: 35.8 (120th of 128 teams in FBS)
Rushing yards: O: 191.8 (48th) D: 198.7 (85th)
Passing Yards: O: 325.8 (8th) D: 250.8 (95th)
Total Yards: O: 517.7 (8th) D: 449.5 (96th)
Turnover Margin: -2 (78th)
Saturday, September 16, 2017 vs. Central Michigan ACC Network Extra
Central Michigan played us tough two years ago- too tough. One player saw Eric Dungey’s pass sail past his head, lowered himself and, forearms out, hit him under the chin and into the helmet with a 5 yard running start, knocking Eric’s head back as if he’d absorbed a Mike Tyson left hook. He was also tackled from behind and was falling forward. When on the ground, semi-conscious at best, the guy who brought him down from behind grabbed Eric’s foot and began twisting it violently. It seemed obvious to me that this was a “take out play”, likely ordered from the bench to get our quarterback out of the game. I think SU should have demanded an investigation and some kind of punishment for the players and coaches involved beyond what was called in the game and threatened to cancel this game if there was no compliance. But nothing further was done and the Chippewas will be back in the Dome. And they’ll have the same coach and defensive coordinator, John Bonamego and Greg Colby. Mitch Stanitzek, the lineman who made the big hit is back, although Nathan Ricketts, the linebacker who did the foot-twisting has graduated.
We won that game 30-27. CMU was 7-6 that year and 6-7 last year. They lose their star QB, Cooper Rush but return a lot of defensive stand-outs. Rush may be replaced by a Michigan transfer, Shane Morris, who started a bowl game for the Wolverines in 2013 as a true freshman. Whoever wins the QB job will have some excellent receivers to throw to: Corey Willis caught 72 balls for 1,091 yards and 9 scores. Mark Chapman had 44 catches and Tyler Conklin had 42. Running back Devon Spalding ran for 758 yards at 5.5 per carry and all 5 interior linemen are back.
But “Defense appears to the Chippewa’s strength,” per Lindys. They have five seniors and four other starters returning. Linebacker Malik fountain led with 91 tackles. “He is a run-stuffer”. Tackle Joe Ostman “anchors the line” and had 69 tackles. Cornerback Amari Coleman had 15 pass break-ups and 4 picks. All were all-conference.
If we are on either a high or a low after the MTS game, this could prove to be a difficult game to get back on track in.
Their numbers:
Points: Offense- 26.3 (83rd) Defense: 30.3 (79th)
Rushing yards: O: 115.9 (120th) D: 169.0 (61st)
Passing Yards: O: 276.1 (26th) D: 222.9 (60th)
Total Yards: O: 392.0 (78th) D: 391.9 (54th)
Turnover Margin: -6 (104th)
Saturday, September 23, 2017 at Louisiana State TBA
The schedule breaks neatly in two groups of teams: the “winnables”, 6 teams we should or at least have a decent chance of beating and what I call the “spiders”, the teams for we are likely to be a fly, caught in their web: teams we are highly unlikely to beat.
Giant Garden Spider vs Giant Horse Fly
Last year the trend in our best opponents was dynamic, double-threat quarterbacks. This year it’s venomous defenses that are a brick wall at the line of scrimmage and attack the backfield, breaking up plays, (and players) and forcing turnovers. That’s the way LSU plays defense and we’d better get used to it. Last year the Tigers were 5th in FCS in scoring defense and 10th in total defense. They’ve lost a bunch of good players from that defense and their best defender, (12 sacks), Arden Key, a 6-6 238 DE/LB, may not be ready to play after June shoulder surgery. (Let’s assume he’ll get well just in time to play us.) They get back 6-5 301 end Christian LaCouture back after he missed last season with a torn ACL. 6-4 305 Fred Herron “has the potential to excel” per Lindy’s. 6-4 308 Greg Gilmore is “the prototypical nose tackle.” 6-3 301 tackle Rashad Lawrence is “one of the most productive playmakers up front”, per Street and Smiths. Redshirt freshman LB Ray Thornton “has great potential. Their middle LB, Devin White, is 255 pounds. Their 7th ranked recruiting class includes 5 star Jacoby Stevens, rated the best safety prospect in the country , 4 star safety Grant Delpit, 4 star nickel back Todd Harris and 4 star cornerback Kary Vincent Jr. We get excited if we get a 3 star guy to come to Syracuse.
Ed Orgeron noted that Les Miles was let go because of his refusal to get away from his grind-it-out approach so Ed went out and got a new offensive co-ordinator, Pittsburgh’s Matt Canada, who directed that offense that scored 76 points on us. He’ll get to work with 6-1 215 QB Danny Etling who replaced injured and now departed Brandon Harris to complete 160 of 269 passes (59%) for 2,123 yards 11TDs and 5 int. He had streaks of 101 and 93 passes in a row without interceptions. DJ Clark had only 26 catches last year but they were for 466 yards (17.9). Leonard Fournette is gone but he was gone early last year and was replaced by 5-11 212 Derrius Guice, “a great blend of speed and strength” who rushed for 1,387 yards and 15 scores and might be the best tailback in the country this year. He ran for 7 TDs of 40 yards or more. He’s backed up by 6- 233 Darrel Williams, whom Orgeron describes as “a bull”.
Once upon a time we were good enough to beat LSU. Maybe that time will come again. But not this year.
The stats:
Points: Offense- 28.3 (68th) Defense: 15.8 (5th)
Rushing yards: O: 233.0 (21st) D: 117.3 (13th)
Passing Yards: O: 190.1 (101st) D: 197.2 (23rd)
Total Yards: O: 423.1 (59th) D: 314.4 (10th)
Turnover Margin: 0 (67th)
Saturday, September 30, 2017 at North Carolina State TBA
We are 1-8 all-time vs. the Wolfpack. Here are the scores: 20-43, 22-28, 31-32, 17-38, 24-10, 17-24 and 29-42. It’s never mattered how good we are or how good they were, except in Scott Shafer’s first year when injuries and crippled their offense and we had a real good defense and beat them down there in Coach Dave Doeren’s first year. He’s still there and Shafer is gone. This year they will be very good. They are expecting the kind of breakthrough we hope to have someday.
Nunes on their defensive line: “Seniors Bradley Chubb and Kentavious Street should terrify on the edges, while B.J. Hill and Justin Jones are among the country’s best run stoppers inside.” The 6-4 275 Chubb turned down the NFL to come back for his senior year and will likely be a first round pick in the next draft. He had 22 tackles for a loss, (TFL) and 10.5 sacks. Linebackers Jerod Fernandez (88T), and Airius Moore (86T, 13.5TFL) are dynamic but Doeren “is hoping for another step of improvement” from them. Safety Shawn Boone had 67 tackles. (Late Update: Moore is one of several players who have been dismissed or suspended by the coach for being involved in a sexual assault case. Moore was just suspended but we don’t know for how long: this will be the 5th game of the year for both teams.)
QB Ryan Finley passed for 3,059 yards, 18TDs and 8int. Jaylen Samuels is a “hybrid fullback/tight end” caught 7TD passes and ran for 6 more. They have to replace a 1,000 yard rusher in Matt Dayes. Hey have 4 starters back in the offensive line. They had problems kicking field goals last year, missing 8 of 17. But I doubt it will come to that.
The stats:
Points: Offense- 27.0 (75th) Defense: 22.8 (27th)
Rushing yards: O: 156.2 (86th) D: 108.6 (8th)
Passing Yards: O: 260.2 (38th) D: 244.2 (82th)
Total Yards: O: 416.4 (63rd) D: 352.8 (24th)
Turnover Margin: +2 (49th)
Saturday, October 7, 2017 vs. Pittsburgh TBA
That 61-76 embarrassment last year was Pitt’s 12th victory in their last 14 games against SU. The history of the series is that both teams are rarely good at the same time and one usually dominates the other for an extended period. We beat Pitt 11 times in 16 years from 1957-1972. They beat us 11 times in a row after that. Then we beat them 16 times in 18 years with one tie. Then came the current streak. The reason for this is simple: both schools recruit in the same areas and go after the same players. When we win those battles, we win the games. When they win them, they win the games. I thought we were going to turn this series back in our favor when the Panthers had their semi-comical coaching carousel a few years ago but then Doug Marrone bolted and we were starting over ourselves. If Dino Babers is to be successful, he’s got to start beating Pitt, both for recruits and on the scoreboard.
Head Coach Pat Narduzzi lost both his offensive coordinator, (to LSU) and his QB. He’s brought in USC grad transfer Max Browne. They also lost their big running back, James Connor, but still have Qadree Ollison, who gained 1,000 yards two years ago. They have two top receivers, Quadree Henderson who had over 2,000 all-purpose yards and Jester Weah, who averaged 24 yards per catch. (Jester Weah?!?) They are rebuilding the offensive line. “Henderson is arguably the best return man in the country”, per Lindy’s. (They need to figure out how to spell Qadry.)
All ACC safety Jordan Whitehead was kind of lost in the maelstrom around him and Pitt was 127th in the country in pass defense, giving up 333 yards per game. Lindys: “Narduzzi is a defensive-minded coach but the defense has not been good since his arrival. This has had more to do with personnel than scheme and he addressed that deficiency in recruiting. Narduzzi’s first three recruiting classes were loaded with defensive players and athletes who are now showing up on the depth chart.” They lost Ejuan Price, “one of the most disruptive forces in college football”, (13 sacks, 23TFL), and aren’t likely to find another like that for a while. The linebacker corps lost 3 seniors. So any defensive improvements will have to come from Narduzzi’s recruits.
Pitt seems vulnerable this year and we’ve got them at home. If we can’t win this one, their dominance in the series may continue for a while longer.
The stats:
Points: Offense- 40.9 (10th) Defense: 35.2 (106th)
Rushing yards: O: 225.1 (28th) D: 119.6 (16th)
Passing Yards: O: 221.7 (76th) D: 333.2 (127th)
Total Yards: O: 446.8 (38th) D: 452.8 (101st)
Turnover Margin: +1 (58th)
Friday, October 13, 2017 vs. Clemson ESPN
It’s hard to know what to make of this series. I know Clemson is the defending national champions and we aren’t but since SU joined the ACC, we’ve lost to them by 35 points at home; lost a defensive duel at their place, 9-19, (DeShaun Watson was injured), lost a shoot-out in our place 27-37, (with Zach Mahoney filling in for Dungey) and been steam rolled 0-54 in their place by a Tiger team that wasn’t even playing that well at the time, (their loss to Pittsburgh was the following week). I suspect the 10 point games are more deceiving than the blow-outs but they still suggest that we should do better than losing 35 or 54 points. What they suggest for this year is unknown. We are still early in Baber’s rebuilding program. Clemson is reloading. They rebuild with players we wish we had. This could be 2017’s version of last year’s Virginia Tech upset, but I doubt it.
They lost all-time great QB DeShaun Watson, 1,000 rusher Wayne Gellman, 1,000 yard receiver Mike Williams, slot receiver Artavis Scott and tight end Jordan Leggett. Back-up Kelly Bryant will try to replace Watson- and try to hold off 5 star freshman Hunter Johnson. He may be the next star QB after Watson and Taj Boyd. Tavien Feaster, CJ Fuller and Adam Choice will try to replace Gallman. Feaster averaged 6.0 last year in mop-up duty. 4/5 of the line comes back. They use plenty of receivers so returnees Dane Cain, Ray-Ray McCloud, (has he met Kirby Dar Dar?) and Hunter Renfrow all had more than 30 catches. Renfrow caught the title winner vs. Alabama. SI: “They don’t have one guy that has 90 catches and everybody else is at 20 or something like that. It’s spread out.” That’s what I’d like to see this year from SU.
At the center of the defensive line is man-mountain Dexter Lawrence, 6-5 340. Our running game will go right into his arms- or those of 6-4 310 Christian Wilkins right next to him. Emotional leader Ben Bouleware graduated but the other linebackers return, including Kendall Joseph, who had 124 tackles. They did lose half the secondary. But Lindy’s said it is “three deep on each side at corner”. We’ll beat Clemson someday but right now they look a little too muscular.
Lawrence and Wilkins Named Associated Press Preseason All-Americans
The stats:
Points: Offense- 39.2 (14th) Defense: 18.0 (10th)
Rushing yards: O: 169.7 (71th) D: 129.6 (24th)
Passing Yards: O: 333.9 (7th) D: 181.9 (14th)
Total Yards: O: 503.7 (12th) D: 311.5 (8th)
Turnover Margin: -1 (71th)
Saturday, October 21, 2017 at University of Miami TBA
The great programs have reasons why they are great. They have their ups and downs but they always come back because the reasons they were great before are still there. Oklahoma was mediocre in the 90’s but won the 2000 national championship and appeared in two other title games after that. Southern California fell from greatness in the 80’s and 90’s but became the dominant program of the 2000’s. Alabama had all kinds of problems in the 2000’s until Nick Saban was hired. They have become the dominant program of the current decade. The dominant program of the 1980’s was Miami. After some troubles with probation, they had a sequel in the early 2000’s. Then they faded again and everybody has been waiting for them to come back, especially the ACC who though they were getting a superpower when they persuaded the Hurricanes to leave the Big East. Amazingly, the Hurricanes have never played in an ACC championship game. But they still exist in an area that produces busloads of top talent and Mark Richt, formerly the successful coach at Georgia and a Miami alum seems to be building the program toward another peak.
One of Richt’s units is ahead of the other. Guess which one? An opposing coach in SI: “Miami’s linebackers can run. They play sideline to sideline and they’re physical. It’s good combination and to see those guys play at the level they did, as young as they were was (a) impressive and (B) scary…I felt like their D-ends were as good against the run and could move. They’re big and physical inside.” Linebackers Shaquille Quarterman and Michael Pinckney and DE Joe Jackson were freshman All-Americans. Lindy’s: “Senior defensive end Chad Thomas, a former 5 star recruit, is poised to star.” Two time FCS AA cornerback Dee Delany is a grad transfer. SI: “He has the size, athleticism and instincts to lock down wide receivers and make quarterbacks pay throwing the ball in his direction.”
The questions are on offense. But there are answers, too. They are looking for a new quarterback with no clear leader. But, per Street and Smith’s, “There isn’t a team in the Coastal Division with better ‘knowns’ at the skill positons.” Mark Walton rushed for 1,117 yards and scored 14 times, Wideout Ahmmon Richards “broke Michael Irvin’s program record for a freshman with a team high 934 yards”, on 49 catches (19.1) but only 3 TDs. He’ll get more this year. SI: “Senior wide receiver Braxton Berrios has talent and he can make plays. He has the ability to be explosive in space.” Freshman wide-out DeeJay Dallas is also “a terrific kick returner”. They have only two starters back in the line but LSU transfer George Brown Jr. will help and freshman Navaughn Donaldson was a top recruit.
The Hurricanes opened with four one-died wins last year, then lost four games, three of them by a total of 11 points, before finishing with 5 straight one-sided wins, including a 31-14 clobbering of West Virginia in the Russell Athletic Bowl. It wouldn’t take much to make them a Top 10 or even a Top 5 team.
The stats:
Points: Offense- 34.3 (37th) Defense: 18.5 (12th)
Rushing yards: O: 151.8 (93th) D: 131.8 (26th)
Passing Yards: O: 274.2 (27th) D: 213.8 (47th)
Total Yards: O: 425.9 (57th) D: 345.5 (20th)
Turnover Margin: +9 (14th)
Saturday, November 4, 2017 at Florida State TBA
Nunes says: “Syracuse probably falls by three or four touchdowns, at least. Take solace in the fact that Florida State is probably the best team in the country… That talent, even more than the offense, is concentrated on the defensive side of the football, where Florida State returns a ton from last year’s strong group. Sack leader DeMarcus Walker departs, but just about everyone else is back. Same goes for the list of leading tacklers on the ‘Noles last season: beyond Walker there’s major returning talent in most spots. Tarvarus McFadden and Derwin James (both in the secondary) are All-America contenders.” SI reports “The last couple of years, they’ve recruited some leaner pass rushers. Those ends, 6-5 250 Josh Sweat and Brian Burns, 6-5 218, are a little bit quicker off the ball….their secondary and defensive line are as good as ever.” (Our ends are pretty lean. So are our means.)
Their QB, the talented Deondre Francois, had a rough but productive freshman year. Offensive line problems resulted in 38 sacks. But the 6-1 205 Francois took that beating and completed 58.78% of his passes for 3,350 yards and 20 scores vs. 7 interceptions he also rushed for a net 198 yards. With star runner Dalvin Cook gone and a hopefully improved line, Francois will become the focal point of the offense and should have a big year. Cook, will likely be replaced, naturally, by a 5 star recruit named Cam Akers who, per SI “can give them some of what Cook gave them” or junior Jacques Patrick, who averaged 5.7 yards per carry backing up Cook. Among the receivers, “Audrey Tate emerged as a red zone threat last season” and Nyqwan Murray (5-11 176) “can fly”. The one weakness may continue to be the offensive line, which used 9 different starters last year and lost the best one, two time AA Roderick Johnson, to the pros. I have a feeling that may hold them back from their national title aspirations. An opening date with Alabama, who loves to feast on ‘name’ programs in early season games, (ask USC who lost to them 6-52 in last year’s opener), may do the same thing.
The stats:
Points: Offense- 35.1 (31st) Defense: 25.0 (44th)
Rushing yards: O: 202.3 (40th) D: 126.0 (21st)
Passing Yards: O: 264.1 (33rd) D: 221.1 (57th)
Total Yards: O: 466.4(25th) D: 349.1 (22nd)
Turnover Margin: +3 (43rd)
Saturday, November 11, 2017 vs. Wake Forest TBA
The good news: 2 of the last three games are in the “winnable” column. The questions are: will it matter anymore by the time we get to there? Also: what kind of a team will he have at that point: a matured team playing with a high level of confidence or a discouraged, injured team just playing out the string – again? Also: just how winnable are these games? Both Wake Forest and Boston College had winning records and won bowl games last year while we went 4-8 – and lost to Wake by 19 points.
Wake and NC State have a couple of things in common: two coaches named Dave who started their rebuilding projects before Dino Babers got here and are thus farther along than Babers is. Dave Clawson, (who preceded Babers at Bowling Green): “This will be the first time in our time here that the amount of seniors and juniors in the two-deep outnumbers the amount of freshmen and sophomores. And so what you’re seeing is all the benefits of the redshirting we’ve been doing, in that we have a lot of fourth year juniors, third year sophomores.” They have three year starters back on the offensive line and the tight end is senior Cam Serigne, (6-3, 245), who has 130 career catches despite a perennially unsettled QB situation. They had three 500 yard rushers last year for the first time since 1971 and two of them are back: Matt Colbun (626 yards) and Cade Carney (589). John Wolford, now a senior, continues to be the primary quarterback candidate after passing for 1,774 yards and 9 scores and running for 521 yards and 5 scores last year. Tabari Hines is the leading receiver with 38 catches for 447 yards. They return 97% of their offensive production, the highest percentage in the country.
The Deacs had 41 sacks and forced 27 turnovers last year. 6-4 275 Duke Ejiofor, who had 10.5 of those sacks will be back at defensive end. Safety Jesse Bates “was an immediate hit” as a freshman with 5 interceptions, two for touchdowns. He also led the ACC with 70 solo tackles. Mike Weaver was named the best place-kicker in the ACC last year and punter Dom Maggio was a freshman AA with a 42.0 average.
Despite some improvement, Wake Forest was far from an offensive juggernaut last year. This game won’t be played outdoors during a hurricane. It will take place inside the Dome, a perfect place for a high powered passing attack, which Wake does not have.
The stats:
Points: Offense- 20.4 (118th) Defense: 22.2 (23rd)
Rushing yards: O: 145.8 (101st) D: 142.4 (33rd)
Passing Yards: O: 165.7 (113th) D: 228.2 (66th)
Total Yards: O: 311.5(124th) D: 370.5 (41th)
Turnover Margin: +8 (18th)
Saturday, November 18, 2017 at Louisville TBA
This is the last of the “spider” teams. The Cardinals looked like they were going to score 100 points on us last year. Heck, Lamar Jackson looked like he was going to score 100 points by himself! We were shocked when they did that to us, (28-62), but the country was shocked when they did it to Florida State the next week, (63-20). That made Lamar Jackson the front-runner for the Heisman Trophy he eventually got. Louisville seemed unstoppable but they came up just short in a titanic 36-42 battle at Clemson. They were still in the hunt for a playoff spot until they shockingly got undressed by Houston 10-36 in their second to last game. They then got upset by geographical rival Kentucky 38-41. LSU then handled them 29-9 in the Citrus Bowl. So the Cardinals have a 3 game losing streak.
They still have Jackson so they are dangerous as a firecracker. I’m not sure he’s an NFL caliber passer: he only completed 56.2% of his passes last year. But he gained 3,543 yards and threw for 30TDs vs. 9 Int. What he’s really special at is running the ball and that may be his future in the pros. He carried the ball 260 times for 1,571 yards and 21TDs, giving him 5,114 total yards, (393 per game) and 51TDs accounted for. He’s 6-3 200 with great moves and great speed. But he lost most of his other playmakers: their tailback, their top two wide-outs and the tight end. They have three offensive linemen back but Lindy’s asks “How much does experience help if the experience wasn’t all that great?” Even with a QB as mobile as Jackson, the line gave up 47 sacks last year, although sometimes a great running QB will run himself into sacks.
SI quoted an opposing coach on their defense: “They were the best defense we played last year. Very talented, very aggressive: sometimes overly aggressive. Last year we tried to throw a lot to the perimeter to get it out of our quarterback’s hands early. Their DBs are big-time athletes.” Cornerback Jamar Alexander “is a great cover guy with great feet. He’s the best corner we saw last year.” They lose some people up front but Trevor Young (6-4 255) returns to DE after missing a year due to injury. He had 8.5 sacks two years ago and the linebacker behind him, James Hearns (6-3 249) had 8 sacks last year.
Their place-kicker, Blanton Creque, had better numbers last year than Wake’s Mike Weaver, (16/19FG vs. 21/27 but he missed one of 40PATs), and their punter, Mason king ,averaged 43.8 yards a kick. Jaire Alexandre is a “dynamic kick returner” and returned a punt for a TD last year.
One item of concern: is a comment by that coach quoted in SI: Coach Bobby “Petrino calls the plays and he’d good but when adversity hits, he hurts that team. He’ll add to the problem because he’ll scream at the kids and their heads will go down.“ That may explain why they were such a different team in those last three games last year than the one SU played early. We play then in their place but we get them late this year. If the players have again tuned out the coach, that could be to our advantage in this one. SU fans are probably thinking that Clemson is the most liked big upset we could pull off this because it will in the Dome. But we might actually have a better chance at Louisville is they have a late fade as they did last year.
The stats:
Points: Offense- 42.5 (6th) Defense: 23.8 (31st)
Rushing yards: O: 242.2 (13th) D: 115.2 (12th)
Passing Yards: O: 290.5 (23th) D: 207.1 (37th)
Total Yards: O: 532.7 (3rd) D: 322.2 (14th)
Turnover Margin: -7 (107th)
Saturday, November 25, 2017 vs. Boston College TBA
When the Eagles get it done- if they get it done- they get it done on defense. Two years ago, they led the nation in total defense and were 4th in scoring defense – and went 3-9 becasue they were 125th in total offense and 120th in scoring offense. (Who said “defense” wins games?) . Last year they were almost as good on defense- 9th in yards, 44th in scoring and just as bad on offense- 127th in yards and 118th in points. Somehow they improved to 7-6. But they suffered some horrendous blow-outs: 0-49 to Virginia Tech , 10-56 to Clemson, 7-52 to Louisville and 7-45 to Florida State. They gave up an average of 13.7ppg to everyone else. We didn’t do much better against the last three teams but we did beat the Hokies. And we’ve also beaten the Eagles in both years, 20-17 and 29-20.
6-3 250 Harold Landry may be the best of all the outstanding defensive linemen we will see this year. He led the nation with a Freeney like 16.5 sacks and 22 tackles for a loss. Middle linebacker Connor Strachan had 80 tackles, 2.5 sacks and a forced fumble. Next to him Ty Schwab had 61 tackles, 5.5 for a loss. Safety Will Harris “is a physical presence”, (Lindy’s) and had two picks, as did CB Kamrin Moore.
On offense, the Eagles need a new QB. Former SU target Anthony Brown is in the mix. Jon Hillman “was electric in the Quick Lane Bowl against Maryland” per Lindy’s. Their definition of ‘electric’: 29 carries for 79 yards and 1TD on a 14 yard run. I guess that’s electric for the Quick Lane Bowl. Street and Smiths: “None of the Eagle’s tailbacks or wide-outs managed more than 600 rushing and receiving yards.” Lindy’s: “The offensive line still hasn’t jelled like many had hoped it would under Addazio.”
Like Wake Forest, Boston College would have a hard time keeping up with a fully functional Dino Babers offense in the Dome. But will we have one in our 12th game and against this defense?
The stats:
Points: Offense- 20.4 (118th) Defense: 25.0 (44th)
Rushing yards: O: 149.1 (96th) D: 108.5 (7th)
Passing Yards: O: 143.8 (120th) D: 205.6 34th)
Total Yards: O: 292.8 (127th) D: 314.2 (9th)
Turnover Margin: +7 (24th)
I think it’s likely we lose to all 6 “spiders” and would thus have to go 6-0 against the “winnables” to make a bowl. I think we’ll fall short of that. Another 4-8 season is likely. 5-7 is possible. Anything above that is heavy lifting.
But that’s why they play the games: to find out what actually happens.
