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[QUOTE="jncuse, post: 1623520, member: 1969"]
I will be using this thread for my tourney projections throughout the year:

A few notes on how I make my projection:
1)  I take the projected season records from rpiforecast.com
[URL]http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html[/URL]

Those records are based on taking what you have done to date, converting it to a power rating, and projecting the rest of your results.

2) I select 68 teams based on that data and metrics, based on my best understanding of what the committee considers in the past.

3) Why do I use this approach?

- I don't like an "As of Now" approach until much later in the season.  The conference you play in and the opportunities you will have going forward are extremely important.   A team in the AAC may have a bubble resume as of now, but they are not going to get the same opportunities as a PAC-12 team.
- It's easier to sort through 31 game data, rather then 15-17 game data much of what is littered with a high % of cupcakes.

The inherent weakness is the strength of the power rating -- some will improve, some will slide -- but that is no different than taking records as of now.

[B]NOTE  [/B]Syracuse is projected to go 6-12 and have an RPI of 96 as of now.    That is no fun.    Part of the reason I am doing this is projecting what Syracuse may need to get in the tourney.

So for the time being I am assuming Syracuse gets to 9-9 (don't ask me how).   Based on the 9-9 record, and assuming the extra 3 wins come from one top 50 team, one 51-100 team, and one sub 100 team:
19-12
RPI = 52 (Per RPI Wizard on that web site)
4-7 top 50
8-10 vs top 100
2 bad losses (sub 100 RPI)

Projection as of January 14th will be in my next post.
[/QUOTE]

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